[MCN] Logging jobs: Timber wars never ended: Encore boom goes bust

[Lance Olsen]

IMPACT OF THE GREAT RECESSION ON THE FOREST 
PRODUCTS INDUSTRY IN THE WESTERN UNITED STATES
Charles E. Keegan, Colin B. Sorenson, Todd A. 
Morgan, Jean M. Daniels, and Steven W. Hayes1
Abstract.-Wood product prices and production fell 
dramatically in 2009 as a severe recession and 
massive decline in U.S. housing led to a global 
financial crisis. In 2009 and 2010, virtually 
every major western mill suffered curtailments 
and 30 large mills closed permanently. Sales 
value of wood and paper products in the West 
dropped from $49 billion in 2005 to $34 billion 
in 2009. Employment declined by 71,000 workers 
and lumber production fell by almost 80 percent 
from 2005 to 2009. Capacity utilization at 
sawmills and other timber-using facilities in the 
West fell from more than 80 percent in 2005 to 
just over 50 percent in 2009 and 2010. With the 
exception of exports and some paper markets, U.S. 
wood products markets have improved little since 
the recession officially ended in 2009. Modest 
improvements are expected in domestic markets in 
the short term, but substantial improvements are 
unlikely until 2014 or later, as U.S. home 
building recovers and global demand increases. 
Much of the West retains the bulk of its 
pre-recession (2006) capacity and mills could 
respond quickly to increased demand spurred by 
economic recovery.
NOTE: A longer version of this paper with 
additional tables, figures, and a full Literature 
Cited section was published in the Forest 
Products Journal, Vol. 61, No. 8, in July 2012.
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"Tree mortality in relatively undisturbed 
old-growth forests across the West has risen even 
when not triggered by wildfires or insect 
infestations."

Rocky Mountain Forests at Risk
http://www.ucsusa.org/sites/default/files/attach/2014/09/Rocky-Mountain-Forests-at-Risk-Full-Report.pdf

"Other scientists have made similar projections. 
According to one study, also assuming medium-high 
levels of future emissions, conifer forests are 
projected to shrink by half, from 24 percent of 
the West's land cover in 2005 to 11 percent by 
2100. The Southwest in particular is projected to 
lose nearly all its conifer forests. Shrublands 
and grasslands would largely replace the conifer 
forests, expanding from 11 percent to 25 percent 
of land cover in the West. These changes could 
occur rapidly and should begin to become evident 
around 2030, when average western temperatures 
reach about 1.6°F above late-twentieth-century 
levels--or 0.6°F of further warming (Jiang et al. 
2013)."



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