[MCN] State of the climate, Fall, 2017

[Lance Olsen]

Environmental Research Letters <http://iopscience.iop.org/journal/1748-9326>
Published 13 November 2017 

EDITORIAL • 
Warning signs for stabilizing global CO2 emissions

R B Jackson, C Le Quéré, R M Andrew, J G Canadell, G P Peters, J Roy and L Wu
• © 2017 The Author(s). Published by IOP Publishing Ltd 

Abstract OPEN ACCESS

http://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/aa9662/meta;jsessionid=5A363A0A875D63A848C14C653137AFDB.c1.iopscience.cld.iop.org <http://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/aa9662/meta;jsessionid=5A363A0A875D63A848C14C653137AFDB.c1.iopscience.cld.iop.org>

Carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions from fossil fuels and industry comprise ~90% of all CO2 emissions from human activities. For the last three years, such emissions were stable, despite continuing growth in the global economy. Many positive trends contributed to this unique hiatus, including reduced coal use in China and elsewhere, continuing gains in energy efficiency, and a boom in low-carbon renewables such as wind and solar. However, the temporary hiatus appears to have ended in 2017. For 2017, we project emissions growth of 2.0% (range: 0.8%−3.0%) from 2016 levels (leap-year adjusted), reaching a record 36.8 ± 2 Gt CO2. Economic projections suggest further emissions growth in 2018 is likely. Time is running out on our ability to keep global average temperature increases below 2 °C and, even more immediately, anything close to 1.5 °C.



~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
“For many terrestrial organisms in the Northern Hemisphere, winter is a period of resource scarcity and energy deficits, survivable only because a seasonal refugium - the “subnivium” - exists beneath the snow. 

The warmer and more stable conditions within the subnivium are principally driven by snow duration, density, and depth. In temperate regions, the subnivium is important for the overwintering success of plants and animals, yet winter conditions are changing rapidly worldwide. 

Throughout the Northern Hemisphere, the impacts of climate change are predicted to be most prominent during the winter months, resulting in a shorter snow season and decreased snow depth. These climatic changes will likely modify the defining qualities of the subnivium, resulting in broad-scale shifts in distributions of species that are dependent on these refugia. …. We believe that ecologists and managers are overlooking this widespread, crucial, and vulnerable seasonal refugium, which is rapidly deteriorating due to global climate change” 

Pauli et al. The subnivium: a deteriorating seasonal refugium. Frontiers in Ecology and Environment 2013

-------------- next part --------------
An HTML attachment was scrubbed...
URL: <http://bigskynet.org/pipermail/missoula-community-news_bigskynet.org/attachments/20171114/7c2771d6/attachment-0002.html>