[MCN] Summer drought outlook: Climate models wrong, again

[Lance Olsen]

Geophysical Research Letters 
First Published:14 October 2017


Midlatitude Summer Drying: An Underestimated Threat in CMIP5 Models?
 <http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2017GL075353/full>Authors
H. Douville, M. Plazzotta
KEY POINTS
Independent data sets are used to demonstrate the reality and anthropogenic origin of a recent multidecadal drying of the summer midlatitudes

In CMIP5 models the summer drying projected at the end of the 21st century shows a significant relationship with the recent drying

This emergent relationship is used to constrain the model response and suggests that most CMIP5 models underestimate the projected drying
Abstract

http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2017GL075353/abstract <http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2017GL075353/abstract>
Early assessments of the hydrological impacts of global warming suggested both an intensification of the global water cycle and an expansion of dry areas. Yet these alarming conclusions were challenged by a number of latter studies emphasizing the lack of evidence in observations and historical simulations, as well as the large uncertainties in climate projections from the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). Here several aridity indices and a two-tier attribution strategy are used to demonstrate that a summer midlatitude drying has recently emerged over the northern continents, which is mainly attributable to anthropogenic climate change. This emerging signal is shown to be the harbinger of a long-term drying in the CMIP5 projections. Linear trends in the observed aridity indices can therefore be used as observational constraints and suggest that the projected midlatitude summer drying was underestimated by most CMIP5 models. Mitigating global warming therefore remains a priority to avoid dangerous impacts on global water and food security.
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Scientific American, April 1999



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