[MCN] Timber investors, employers exposed to climate risk?

[Lance Olsen]

Climate change impacts on forestry. 
Andrei P. Kirilenko and Roger A. Sedjo.
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences USA, December 11, 2007.
http://www.pnas.org/content/104/50/19697 <http://www.pnas.org/content/104/50/19697>

Excerpts:
 
“Our review is focused on recent publications that discuss the changes in commercial forestry, excluding the ecosystem functions of forests and nontimber forest products.”

“Even without fires or insect damage, the change in frequency of extreme events, such as strong winds, winter storms, droughts, etc. can bring massive loss to commercial forestry.”

“In a changing climate, higher direct and indirect risks caused by more frequent extreme events will affect timber supplies, market prices, and cost of insurance, although the costs are highly uncertain.” 
 
“The response of forestry to global warming is likely to be multifaceted. On some sites, species more appropriate to the climate will replace the earlier species that is no longer suited to the climate. Also, planted forests can be relocated to more regions with more suitable climates.”

“In general, we would expect planting and associated forestry operations to tend more toward higher latitudes, especially from some tropical sites, should they warm substantially. Plantations would likely shift toward more subtropical regions from tropical ones. In the United States, we might expect to see planted forest moving northward, with more spilling over into Canada.”

“Distributional effects will involve businesses, landowners, workers, consumers, governments, and tourism. Net benefits will accrue to regions experiencing increased forest production, whereas regions with declining activity will likely face net losses. “

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“Full of recent references and statistics, Harvesting the Biosphere adds to the growing chorus of warnings about 
the current trajectory of human activity on a finite planet, of which climate change is only one dimension. 

“One can quibble with with some assumptions or tweak Smil's calculations, but the bottom line will not change, 
only the time it may take humanity to reach a crisis point.”

Stephen Running. “Approaching the Limits” Science 15 March 2013.

Book review. Harvesting the Biosphere: What we have taken from Nature. by Vaclav Smil .  
MIT Press, Cambridge, MA, 2012. 315 pp. $29, £19.95. ISBN 9780262018562.

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