[MCN] A climate rant: Measuring danger by degrees

[Lance Olsen]

James Hansen defined “Dangerous Anthropocentic Interference” with the climate system as temperature-driven risk of rising seas and species extinctions. 

At only ~1C above preindustrial times, sea levels had already risen, with corresponding risk to economic values including loss of real estate values. In 2006, Camille Parmesan reviewed over 800 studies of wild species and systems, and cited that many had already responded to an rise of only 0.6C above preindustrial times. By the 1980s, the heat had risen to 0.85C, and we’ve recently nudged the heat a little above 1C.

Amidst uncertainties in climate science, it’s now certain that mass combustion of fossil fuels will force the heat beyond the current 1C+. Given that species had already responded at only 0.6C, it’s a certainty that moving beyond 1C will force them into further response, including likely decimation/extinction at lower elevations and latitudes. 

A series of recent studies cite evidence that species will face less risk at 1.5C above preindustrial levels than at 2C. An IPCC special report on 1.5C is scheduled for later this year. While some argue that halting the heat at only 1.5 is technically doable, there’s precious little evidence that societies will act to avoid surpassing 2C. 

And there’s plausible enough evidence of little restraint on business as usual, which could take us into the realm of 3C or even 4. This scenario is anything but new. When Bob Watson was IPCC chair, back in the era of George W. Bush, he said we might as well get used to the idea of adapting to 4C. For much real estate at or near sea level, and for many wild species and spaces, heat at this level will certainly force a dangerous and endangering failure to adapt

If technological potential for avoiding 1.5C does in fact exist, so does the potential for avoiding 3 or 4. However, and it’s a big however,  the bigger challenge is political, and there’s no reason to dismiss or underestimate the clout of opposition to political action. 

End rant
Lance 

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Four-degree climate change – alarmist or realist? Oct 2, 2009
"It's not often that an entire roomful of scientists is in agreement but that was certainly the case when delegates at the 4 Degrees and Beyond: International Climate Conference in Oxford, UK, were asked to raise their hands if they thought that talking about an average global warming of 4C by 2100 was alarmist: not a single researcher waved their arm in the air."
Environmental Research Web  Oct 2, 2009
http://environmentalresearchweb.org/cws/article/news/40592 <http://environmentalresearchweb.org/cws/article/news/40592>

Paul Kennedy. Canadian Broadcasting Corporation. Thursday September 07, 2017
http://www.cbc.ca/radio/ideas/are-we-f-ked-decoding-the-resistance-to-climate-change-1.4277614 <http://www.cbc.ca/radio/ideas/are-we-f-ked-decoding-the-resistance-to-climate-change-1.4277614>

""No one wanted to pay attention to the implications of a world four degrees warmer… It's too horrendous to think about.  And no one talked about it. Then a few scientists said let's have a conference and actually talk about it. They held this conference in Oxford and I went along. As the conference started, there was a kind of suppressed emotional intensity, except in the coffee breaks. It was then that I would buttonhole a couple of scientists and say: 'Well, you know we're speculating about this. But what do you really think is the situation?' And one of them just looked at me and said: 'We're f--ked.'" — Clive Hamilton 
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“Whereas any one line of evidence may be weak in itself, a number of lines of evidence, taken together and found to be consistent, reinforce one another exponentially.”

Preston Cloud and Aharon Gibor. The Oxygen Cycle. 
Scientific American, September 1970






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