[MCN] The [ imperfect ] reconciliation bill is likely the last chance for big federal climate legislation : Many still "don't get that"

Sun Aug 8 11:11:33 EDT 2021

Volts Aug 7
Crunch time: this is America's last chance at serious climate policy for a decade <https://email.mg2.substack.com/c/eJwtkttu4jAQhp-G3BH5FCe5yMUulAq0odqKlsJN5NgDODgHxQ7Z8PQ1ZaXxYf6Z0Yz0jRQOzm0_ZV1rXfC4Cjd14F0lhVcGC32hVcYwTuKYBf6ncBIlgbbFqQeohTaZ6wcIuqE0Wgqn2-ZRgFOKCAsuWcqYQIIziKgAioQCJFNyYkTGSawoezYVg9LQSMjgBv3UNhCY7OJcZ2f014ysvI3jGN5a42w4upP3O39kPzTyMne6hrm7aDv3Jmro_Rx2bvz8M7py7RWaGV3CtMGSfE5fxFzXVYvy3Qvb3iX6s9iMJd2i__r9bXeYtrsXmi9GLfYr5LV_22rN8vsH3lYS-_xO0ly_6c2o9muX7673fLlGaz1qST-1z9fyNb2rBZ6O-1WlXs2t1Js0fH8_y2he1RdEjsvTZHm1Gunpa3c8cjJ9HP4OB2VcPb7-RnmgM4IIRgmKcYwQQyEOY5AYEZEizjhGHGOOqeBKkVIoWeJ0xlB9JqEdSuuEvIayrYM-M6KRrbGNj54frH5kj6rwbz002k0FNKI0oJ4U3XMRfrgWZ2ig9wuiCuEyzElCo4jHnEX8Cc1jpiknkZ8x8H1V66uaTImbVn1bQu_sN8pqy1Q>
It's going to be a clean energy standard & clean energy tax credits, or nothing.

David Roberts <https://email.mg2.substack.com/c/eJwtkMGOhCAMQL9muK2hIKgHDnvZ3zAVqkNWwQCO8e-XGTch0JY07XsWCy0xXWaPubD3NZZrp5o6i7VyZEqjd6YF6LuuZTVy0Kue-TzOiWhDv5qSDmL7Ma3eYvExvBtgkFy07GlIDKCVFASqE26eUfLBObTQg0Yt8R6Kh_MULBl6UbpiILaaZyl7fsjvh_ip5zzP5hXXkpuzzDXfKe4r1UBwUEIq-eXw5d1XihOlkpk3ggvgPe-g47zlDTQdWeACB65bDVwDaJConRMTOjvB8Gj5togmH1MuaH8bGzeWzIrBxjWH-ru8cT_lSjvWdzuCL9dIAaeV3C2i3C4_asaFAqXq2I1YDGjRS6V0p1ulb-5qSg5aqLojq3NdrF3BfEj-Qf4AO0qKVw>

EXCERPTS

This is it, folks! The home stretch. It’s time to pay attention, call your members of Congress, and mobilize your networks.

Congress is working on what is likely to be its last big shot at climate change policy for a decade or more. If things go well, the legislation will include a clean energy standard (CES) and clean energy tax credits, which together would revolutionize the US electricity system. If things don’t go well, there will be no substantial climate legislation for many years to come.

Looking around, it doesn’t seem like clean energy supporters, climate hawks, or the left more broadly really get that. 

So let’s talk about why this is such an important moment and what’s at stake.

Share <https://email.mg2.substack.com/c/eJxNkl2PojAUhn8N3En6gQUuuNjV0WgWJztxxtEbUtqjVoGatsjir98yziabtE3P03NyPvoK7uCkzZDftHXheJRuuIE3peCedBZMqWQeY5wmSRz6m8TpNA2VLY8GoOGqzp3pILx1Va0Ed0q3YwDOKCJxeM4zmnJKRYJSyTJZ4VTymCcYMvBQJvSZlHdSQSsghzuYQbcQ1vnZuZsN6I-ALPzq-z6669rZqHdHb9_8FqZrxXniVAMTd1Z24hdvwPg67KT29Qd00bmmtLozAgI6t11lHRfXgLCRNyBV13j-1cc3FLp10LrR-8wNeMrF2NV_wOkrjDYMayzIx_BJ6uvqolGxfYk3D4F-zdZ9RTfomz9et_ths32hxaxXfLdAnv3ZXFZx8XjHm4vA3v8maKFe1bqXu5UrttdHMV-hleqVoB_K-yuxzB5yhofDbnGRy_peqXUWvb2dxHRyac6IHObHwbLLoqfHz-3hwMjwvv_d7WXtmn75ExWhygkiGKUowQlCMYpwlIDAiPAMsZhhxDBmmHImJam4FBXOghg1JxL9m1okdBOavOat0LVt_etpnNsX9t_vJ9c0XavcUELLqxrkUxnuKa6vGZcnaMF40cmSuxwzktLplCUsnrKnELx0aMbI1NcY-rxS-6g2l_yupNEVGGf_Auby6UQ>
The reconciliation bill is likely the last chance for big federal climate legislation

It contains decent chunks of money for things that will indirectly help clean energy — transmission, demonstration projects, R&D — but it lacks anything that will directly confront fossil fuels in the coming decade, the sine qua non of adequate climate policy <https://email.mg2.substack.com/c/eJwlUM1uwyAMfppyS2QIIcmBwy57jQiw16IlEAFplbefu0rGxkb4-wmu0T2Xyx65NvFOa7sO4haD48lZqawRrZZyniYt-IZyHmcR6_pTiHYXN9vKSeI4_RaDazGn9we5DKC0eFivCSe9wDAjqBmcXwD8tCDOpAEX_wF1J0ZKgSw9qVw5kdjso7Wj3oavm_rmeL1e_TNvrfav9sP9wSenLmxxZw3dkRn96tqDCtWOF3RMLYloFSgJM0xyAtDQy36iIEG5BYw2EoyURg7OICrvMHi53DTsd9XX09fmwm8f8i6K3VwKeauJX-9v0f9j1rxy3c8U27VScn4j_NjRPo7-G7TeKVFhlri6ZqVR8zCOZjJ6NB_17NewGDUyR8G4mN_cLbpnxJI9lVb_APJzjfI>. As Robinson Meyer argues in The Atlantic, it is not a climate bill <https://email.mg2.substack.com/c/eJwlUUGOwyAMfE1zSwQECDlw2Mt-IzLgtGgJiYC06u_XaSVkD4MGD4OHhve9vO2x19ZdZWnvA2kbPBBzVixLDFZybqZJdoQCN8p0sS5rQdwgJtvKid1xuhQ9tLjnS8DnkQnZPewYFFv5rFY0KzjjmOcggTumzGRWYb5D4QwRs0eLTyzvPWOX7KO1o97Gn5v4pfV6vYb2QGgJcot-8PtGbPUfGSEo_hGfFxJMcGrMUHHxgNJihdzHvBZ6Ujl9Owv2ASH1fzGH3qe4UQy9iymRRPNZK0mgi_a6ihk28YkxyQY-TOg5EzAzLTVnmnPNR9AhCAfBOz7fJNvuYqinqw383-WyK5Ys-z3VTKf3K7EPTYEt1Lczx_ZeMINLGL5Ztu93fNJd7pixkL-wQLNcCzMqpSctlf5GR2GPsxaKPHY0N-ykyjbAM4ayOyyt_gPl86Fe>, not really.

There’s no guarantee the bipartisan bill will pass, and there’s no way to know how the Senate’s bipartisanship fetishists, Sens. Joe Manchin (D-W.V.) and Kyrsten Sinema (D-Ariz.), will react if it doesn’t.

But whether it passes or not, when it comes to decent climate policy, it’s all about the reconciliation bill. There won’t be another bill this big while Democrats control Congress, and they won’t control Congress for long. What Democrats are able to get through in the reconciliation bill is likely to be the last big federal climate legislation for a decade at least.

This is the key thing to understand, so I’m going to repeat it: What Democrats are able to get through in the reconciliation bill is likely to be the last big federal climate legislation for a decade at least.

The conservative movement in the US is attempting to engineer one-party control of US government (along the lines of their new hero, Hungarian autocrat Viktor Orban <https://email.mg2.substack.com/c/eJwlkc2OhCAMx59muGkAFfXAYS_7GqZAR8kiTKBM4tsvziSkX-Tflh8WCPeUL_1KhdhtNrpe2FJnoVVqwbx5p0chlnkeWYucWKaF-bI9M-IJPmjKFdmrmuAtkE_xFoh14HJkhzZWDnJdn5IvqxhR4bAoY0FwNFKsdv0Oheo8Rosa35ivFJEFfRC9ymP4ecjfduJ1wt7bdLbYR8IQ_H4rcssll6I5vjRD1f5h7izkUFLsDihdQYwdHdg9K9WMHUTXeep86Z5QrC_UH3QG5vXdhy98FjPnI-9FP6MVXMLK1agEV0IoMYByThpw1oj1MfJzl32pphDYv3s9lnWAaFMosd3uN6BPufHZmj9r9HRtGMEEdF909KX_gbm1R2Fuv-I2IC2UXIZpUrMaJ_Ul1dgOq5JT25G1uS41VdQO3t7lZDBT-QdIWpxT>). There’s no way to know how successful the endeavor will ultimately be, but it’s a pretty good bet, given current trends, that Democrats won’t control the presidency and both houses of Congress at the same time again for a long while. Last time they lost full control (just before a wave of gerrymandering in 2010), it was a decade until they got it back.That all begins in January 2023 — which makes this year’s reconciliation bill the Democrats’ last big shot at climate and clean energy policy.

There are two key clean-energy policies on the table

Climate folk are prone to endless policy arguments; everyone has their favorites. But most of those arguments are immaterial right now. Democrats have lined up behind a menu of clean energy policies in line with Biden’s climate plan <https://email.mg2.substack.com/c/eJwlUMGOhCAM_ZrhtoYCAnPgsJf9DYNQHXYVDOIk_v3WMSGlr03b917wDedST7eVvbErDO3ckGAMnirHjnVI0SkAa4xilEWwvWVpH6aKuPq0uFYPZNsxLin4lkq-BuApuVDs5biyxooIUnrovZyEmoyFYKwGy-PU30f9ERPmgA7fWM-SkS3u1dq2P-T3Q_zQ-y04poi5C2UlGJa0EvevbfGZIEtOcAHccgOGc8U76AwG4MI_uVYauAbQIL2OUYw-hhGeD8XXWXT7Me7Nh79rMauO9oWy7Jm686XuUyZxA_3rkVM7B8x-XDDeuttt3ceJYcaMlWjFwTcHWljZ99po1etbJhkjn1r0xJHR3VhoKrvo3ynWMmJt-z-PsYRA>. What’s on that menu is what might get in the bill. Might.

If it’s not on that menu, it’s not going to get in. There’s no carbon tax. There’s no cap-and-dividend. There’s no prohibition on new fossil fuel infrastructure. You may support any and all of those policies, but they are not live options in the reconciliation bill.

Right now, political pressure is best aligned behind options that actually are on the menu. Two in particular are immensely important — together, they would be transformative.

The first is a Clean Energy Standard <https://email.mg2.substack.com/c/eJwlkM2urSAMhZ9mM9uGogIOGJzJfQ3DT1VyFAzgNt6nP7hNKHSVNO36rC44x3SpPeZC7mss145VOqtr5ciYRu9UByCF6EjNHMheEp_HKSFu2q-qpAPJfpjVW118DHcDDC1lHVnUwK2EVnBBje0lSNBAJz2wYXCGOjM9Q_XhPAaLCj-YrhiQrGopZc-v9ufF_tVznmfziWvJzVmmqvcaX33v-V7i-S7x7dDqZGLw__FdFiReMcqASipAUNrRBhqBFijTA-UdB8oBOLSaO8eMdtbA8OroNrMmHyYXbX8bGzeS1KqDjWsO9Xe-PX_L1fJY3-0IvlwjBm1WdA-N8gD98hlnDJgqaDfqooAz2fY9F7zr-WO-4moHzvq6I6lzXaxdQTn98S5Fg6nkP2S8jbY> that would reduce electricity sector greenhouse gas emissions 80 percent by 2030. (Biden’s plan calls for 100 percent by 2035, but a reconciliation bill can only extend 10 years out.)

The second is boosted and expanded clean energy tax credits. The investment tax credit (ITC) and production tax credit (PTC), for wind and solar respectively, would be renewed, but various forms of tax credits would also be extended to energy storage, hydrogen, carbon capture, and other key clean energy technologies. (The details are in flux; for a blueprint, see the Senate Finance Committee’s Clean Energy for America Act <https://email.mg2.substack.com/c/eJwlUcuShCAM_JrxhgWK6Bw47GV_wwoQHXYRpgDH9e83zlRRPDoJ3elYqLimfOpnKrW5trmeT6Sns0DIXjDP3mkpxDSOsqGbE9MwNb7MS0bcwAdd847NczfBW6g-xatA3Hveyeahe7sYAShRqmUYcBqFs9hPTvLe8HFYPqSwO4_RosYX5jNFbIJ-1Post_7r1n3TOo6jXXwESmoLRtLdrulFAfsAnzeIhUU8CgHsOB1GZlMICOuOhflYc3K7RRZw9SW8VbKaWCK2B-yBYcS8nqzCH9U5ZDYjMbCfZAoBm4HKbPDbhdnsiy-N1x3vBJ_4KEbOJW9FO6IVvIM7V1IJroRQogflXGfAWSPuN8m3tWvLbkoF-9vSx03WgVpKoUSKrpedb5jcnOnc9ujrOVO7JqD7GF0_s3pbP6-XcFLlZqhaqG7qh0GNSg7q4ytNor-rbiCNDfG6RFVRO3h5l5PBXMs_FgGxEQ> or the House Ways and Means’ GREEN Act <https://email.mg2.substack.com/c/eJw1kc2OrCAQhZ-m2WH4UdQFi9nc1zAlVaNkBAxgT3z7S0_PJASKUzmpw4eDSlvKtz1Tqey1LfU-qV3RQVOuQnnxaHspp3HsWatQTsPEfFk-M1EAf9iaL2LntR7eQfUpvgxy1kL1bLdo9LDqcVbD3M8KPrWWapRE2igcHJn3ULjQU3Rk6Un5TpHYYfdaz_LQHw_1r63gv6juKZwlxW5PLVi3pWdrRPouOaXQyjNTKTzTQVCoNMHt4HOAyP-c_BvuwiEiDwSxcKSQXIZauI81J7wc8a29K3JwlXmrhJJiEqMchehFJ7uRnBQKZmF6I4WR0kgNBlGtgG6V86MXYVNdudZSwX11LgWW7QHRpaPE1t1eyH7kRmxpZ7iir_dCEdaD8A2zvv_jB--yUaQWkXCBaqVRkx4GM5p--GXXaOvZqKFlZG0upuaKFuHpMaeVci3_AQ3KpcY>.)

Tax credits will provide the supply push; the CEPP will provide the demand pull. The result will be an enormous surge of clean energy projects and jobs.

This is the core of good climate policy: pushing fossil fuels off the grid over the next decade and replacing them with zero-carbon energy.

But the CEPP and the tax credits are the one-two punch needed to make a real short-term difference in the energy system. And they are on the menu.

 Everyone who cares about US climate progress should put aside their personal projects and preferences for a few weeks and speak in a unified voice. Call your representatives. Push the groups you’re involved to make noise about it.

It’s going to be the CEPP and tax credits or nothing big for climate. If both those policies are put in place, it could set the US power system on a new course and strengthen American credibility at the upcoming COP26 international climate meeting. If they slip through the cracks, climate will have to settle for scraps and the US will surrender all hope of meeting its climate targets or influencing others to do the same.

For the next few months, this is all matters. If you’ve ever considered getting involved, now is the time.

************************************************************************
“What can be said with assurance is that there is a unique and nearly ubiquitous compound, with the empirical formula H296o O1480 C1480 N16 P1.8 S called living matter. 

Its synthesis, on an oxidized and uncarboxylated earth, is the most intricate feat of chemical engineering ever performed –-- and the most delicate operation that people have ever 
tampered with.”

Edward S. Deevey, Jr. Mineral Cycles.
Scientific American, September 1970

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“The growth in CO2 emissions closely follows the growth in Gross Domestic Product (GDP) corrected for improvements in energy efficiency.”

P. Friedlingstein, et al. “Update on CO2 emissions.”
Nature Geoscience. Published online: 21 November 2010

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“Changes in world GDP (WGDP) have a significant effect on CO2 concentrations, so that years of above-trend WGDP are years of greater rise 
of CO2 concentrations. Measuring WGDP in constant US dollars of 2000, for each trillion WGDP deviates from trend, the atmospheric CO2 
concentration has deviated from trend, in the same direction, about half a part per million.” 

Granados et al. Climate change and the world economy: short-run determinants of atmospheric CO2. 
Environmental science & policy 21 (2012) 50–62

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