[MCN] Heat has consequences

[Lance Olsen]

Western Canada burns and deaths mount after world's most extreme heat wave in modern history <https://www.google.com/url?rct=j&sa=t&url=https://yaleclimateconnections.org/2021/07/western-canada-burns-and-deaths-mount-after-worlds-most-extreme-heat-wave-in-modern-history/&ct=ga&cd=CAEYACoTNTE4MTUyMTk4NTQ0NjIwNjEwNzIaYWJkMGVmMWVmZTRkNWE4NTpjb206ZW46VVM&usg=AFQjCNGUdJ4LSHwVqmuzkG9-tX94wo3QGQ>
Yale Climate Connections

“This is the most anomalous regional extreme heat event to occur anywhere on Earth since temperature records began. Nothing can compare,” said ...
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The Lancet Published June, 2021
DOI:https://doi.org/10.1016/S2542-5196(21)00079-6 <https://doi.org/10.1016/S2542-5196(21)00079-6>

The upper temperature thresholds of life

OPEN ACCESS pdf
https://www.thelancet.com/action/showPdf?pii=S2542-5196%2821%2900079-6 <https://www.thelancet.com/action/showPdf?pii=S2542-5196(21)00079-6>

Excerpts from the news release

https://www.eurekalert.org/pub_releases/2021-07/tuom-awt070221.php


"We have studied which temperatures are preferable and which are harmful in humans, cattle, pigs, poultry, and agricultural crops and found that they are surprisingly similar," says Senthold Asseng, Professor of Digital Agriculture at TUM. According to the study, preferable temperatures range from 17 to 24 degrees Celsius.

"By [ i.e., before ] the end of the century, 45 to 70 percent of the global land area could be affected by climate conditions in which humans cannot survive without technological support, such as air conditioning. Currently, it's 12 percent," says Prof. Asseng. This means that in the future, 44 to 75 percent of the human population will be chronically stressed by heat. A similar increase in heat stress is expected for livestock, poultry, agricultural crops and other living organisms.

"Genetic adaptation to a changing climate often takes many generations. The time available is too short for many higher forms of life. If current climate trends persist, many living things could be severely affected or even disappear completely from Earth due to temperature change," concludes Prof. Asseng.

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“  … organisms have a physiological response to temperature, and these responses have important consequences …. biological rates and times (e.g. metabolic rate, growth, reproduction, mortality and activity) vary with temperature. 

Anthony I. Dell, Samraat Pawar and Van M. Savage, Temperature dependence of trophic interactions are driven by asymmetry of species responses and foraging strategy.
Journal of Animal Ecology 2013	

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"All organisms live within a limited range of body temperatures …. Direct effects of climatic warming can be understood through fatal decrements in an organism's performance in growth, reproduction, foraging, immune competence, behaviors and competitiveness ….. Beyond low and high critical temperatures, only a passive, anaerobic existence is possible."

Hans O. Pörtner and Anthony P. Farrell. Physiology and Climate Change. SCIENCE 31 OCTOBER 2008

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“The impacts of temperature may also be more indirect, but still related to physiological tolerances. For example, in spiny lizards (Sceloporus), local extinctions seem to occur because higher temperatures restrict surface activity during the spring breeding season to a daily time window that is overly short [23]. 

Similarly, increased air temperatures may both decrease activity time and increase energy maintenance costs, leading organisms to die from starvation rather than from overheating [14].”

Cahill et al. How does climate change cause extinction? 
Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences. 2013. 

PDF<<https://royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/pdf/10.1098/rspb.2012.1890>>

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"In temperate regions, the hottest seasons on record will represent the future norm in many locations.
 
“Coping with the short-run challenge of food price volatility is daunting. But the longer-term challenge of avoiding a perpetual food crisis under conditions of global warming is far more serious. “
 
David. S. Battisti  and Rosamond L. Naylor.
Historical Warnings of Future Food Insecurity with Unprecedented Seasonal Heat. 
SCIENCE 9 JANUARY 2009

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“A death zone is creeping over the surface of Earth, gaining a little more ground each year. 

“As an analysis published this week in Nature Climate Change shows, since 1980, these temporary hells on Earth have opened up hundreds of times to take life (C. Mora et al. Nature Clim. Change http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/nclimate3322 <http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/nclimate3322>; 2017). 

“The analysis also reveals that even aggressive reductions in emissions will lead the number of deadly heatwaves to soar in the coming decades.

Nature 546, 452 (22 June 2017) doi:10.1038/546452a

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“ ….  our choices for deadly heat are now between more of it or a lot more of it.”

Camilo Mora et al. Twenty-Seven Ways a Heat Wave Can Kill You: Deadly Heat in the Era of Climate Change. Circulation : Cardiovascular Quality and Outcomes 
<<https://www.ahajournals.org/doi/abs/10.1161/circoutcomes.117.004233>>

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 More Intense, More Frequent, and Longer Lasting Heat Waves in the 21st Century. Gerald A. Meehl and Claudia Tebaldi. Science, 13 AUGUST 2004 

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"Observed heat wave intensities in the current decade are larger than worst-case projections."

Auroop R. Gangulya, et al. Higher trends but larger uncertainty and geographic variability in 21st century temperature and heat waves. PNAS, September 15, 2009.

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Andrew Dessler, a professor in the geosciences department at Texas A&M University, has created a template auto-response for the requests he receives from journalists to comment on these records each year. 

“Thank you for emailing me asking for comment about ’20 being one of the hottest years on record,” it reads. “Here is a comment you can use for your story: ‘Every year for the rest of your life will be one of the hottest in the record. This means that ’20 will end up being among the coolest years of this century. Enjoy it while it lasts.’”

Dessler isn’t trying to be curmudgeonly. He’s pointing out something scientists have known since the late 19th century: If you dump greenhouse gases into the atmosphere, the climate warms. 

https://grist.org/climate/2020-was-the-hottest-year-on-record-well-remember-it-as-one-of-the-centurys-coldest/

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“…many scientists say deep emissions cuts are necessary … to prevent … 
dangerous consequences of global warming. 

"Getting from here to there would require a massive economic shift.”

Rachel Pannett and Jeffrey Ball. “Australia Approves Energy Bill.”  
The Wall Street Journal  p.A7, August 21, 2009

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