[MCN] Can't do anything drastic, it might sound far-fetched, and exploring catastrophic climate change scenarios

[Lance Olsen]

“When I tell politicians to act now, the most common answer is that they can’t do anything drastic, because that would be too unpopular among voters. 

“And they are right of course.”

Greta Thunberg in speech to European Parliament

Full text 
https://www.europarl.europa.eu/resources/library/media/20190416RES41665/20190416RES41665.pdf

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“We know it might sound far-fetched that a changing climate could one day force California to abandon entire towns in high-risk fire zones in the mountains, the way a handful of coastal communities <https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2020-02-24/marina-sea-level-rise> have reluctantly embraced a “managed retreat” from rising sea levels <https://www.latimes.com/projects/la-me-sea-level-rise-california-coast/#nt=00000170-5f60-d233-a371-ffeb4632000f-showMedia-title-promoSmall-enhancement>.

“But it’s really not. Not when most of both rural Lake and Butte counties <http://www.lakecountyca.gov/Assets/Departments/Administration/Vision/CumulativeImpact.pdf> have gone up in flames multiple times in the last few years, often displacing and sometimes killing residents <https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2020-09-22/the-people-in-this-california-town-have-much-to-begin-with-fire-took-it-away>. Not when eight of the 10 largest wildfires in the state’s history have occurred in the last five years, with the top three in Northern California <https://www.fire.ca.gov/media/4jandlhh/top20_acres.pdf>.”

https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2022-09-27/california-climate-change-stop-rebuilding-rural-towns-wildfire-greenville

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PNAS August 1, 2022
https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2108146119 


Climate Endgame: Exploring catastrophic climate change scenarios 

Luke Kemp, Chi Xu,Joanna Depledge, Kristie L. Ebi, Goodwin Gibbins, Timothy A. Kohler, Johan Rockstrom Marten Scheffer, Hans Joachim Schellnhuber, Will Steffen , and Timothy M. Lenton

Abstract 

Prudent risk management requires consideration of bad- to-worst-case scenarios. Yet, for climate change, such potential futures are poorly understood. Could anthropogenic climate change result in worldwide societal collapse or even eventual human extinction? At present, this is a dangerously underexplored topic. Yet there are ample reasons to suspect that climate change could result in a global catastrophe. Analyzing the mechanisms for these extreme consequences could help galvanize action, improve resilience, and inform policy, including emergency responses. We outline current knowledge about the likelihood of extreme climate change, discuss why understanding bad-to-worst cases is vital, articulate reasons for concern about catastrophic outcomes, define key terms, and put forward a research agenda. The proposed agenda covers four main questions: 1) What is the potential for climate change to drive mass extinction events? 2) What are the mechanisms that could result in human mass mortality and morbidity? 3) What are human societies' vulnerabilities to climate- triggered risk cascades, such as from conflict, political instability, and systemic financial risk? 4) How can these multiple strands of evidence—together with other global dangers— be usefully synthesized into an “integrated catastrophe assessment”? It is time for the scientific community to grapple with the challenge of better understanding catastrophic climate change. 

Excerpt from text of article 

Why the focus on lower-end warming and simple risk analyses? One reason is the benchmark of the international targets: the Paris Agreement goal of limiting warming to well below 2 °C, with an aspiration of 1.5 °C. Another reason is the culture of climate science to “err on the side of least drama” (7), to not to be alarmists, which can be compounded by the consensus processes of the IPCC (8). Complex risk assessments, while more realistic, are also more difficult to do. 

This caution is understandable, yet it is mismatched to the risks and potential damages posed by climate change. We know that temperature rise has “fat tails”: low-probability, high-impact extreme outcomes (9). Climate damages are likely to be nonlinear and result in an even larger tail (10). Too much is at stake to refrain from examining high-impact low-likelihood scenarios. 



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"The big challenge is still to deliver emissions reductions at the pace and scale needed, especially in a world where economies are driven by consumption.”

Sonja van Renssen.The inconvenient truth of failed climate policies. Nature Climate Change  MAY 2018

Published online: 27 April 2018 https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-018-0155-4 

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“What we are witnessing is a temper tantrum against the mere suggestion that there are limits to what we can consume.” 

Naomi Klein
https://theintercept.com/2019/09/15/trump-straws-plastic/




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