[MCN] Bioscience, December 2024 The 2024 state of the climate report: Perilous times on planet Earth <--1st paragraph and excerpt from the text

[Lance Olsen]

The 2024 state of the climate report: Perilous times on planet Earth 

William J Ripple, Christopher Wolf, Jillian W Gregg, Johan Rockström, Michael E Mann, Naomi Oreskes, Timothy M Lenton, Stefan Rahmstorf, Thomas M Newsome, Chi Xu, Jens-Christian Svenning, Cássio Cardoso Pereira, Beverly E Law, Thomas W Crowther

Bioscience, December 2024
PDF <https://academic.oup.com/bioscience/article-pdf/74/12/812/59551278/biae087.pdf>
https://doi.org/10.1093/biosci/biae087 <https://doi.org/10.1093/biosci/biae087>

1st paragraph

We are on the brink of an irreversible climate disaster. This is a global emergency beyond any doubt. Much of the very fabric of life on Earth is imperiled. We are stepping into a critical and unpredictable new phase of the climate crisis. For many years, scientists, including a group of more than 15,000, have sounded the alarm about the impending dangers of climate change driven by increasing greenhouse gas emissions and ecosystem change (Ripple et al. 2020 <>). For half a century, global warming has been correctly predicted even before it was observed—and not only by independent academic scientists but also by fossil fuel companies (Supran et al. 2023 <>). Despite these warnings, we are still moving in the wrong direction; fossil fuel emissions have increased to an all-time high, the 3 hottest days ever occurred in July of 2024 (Guterres 2024 <>), and current policies have us on track for approximately 2.7 degrees Celsius (°C) peak warming by 2100 (UNEP 2023 <>). Tragically, we are failing to avoid serious impacts, and we can now only hope to limit the extent of the damage. We are witnessing the grim reality of the forecasts as climate impacts escalate, bringing forth scenes of unprecedented disasters around the world and human and nonhuman suffering. We find ourselves amid an abrupt climate upheaval, a dire situation never before encountered in the annals of human existence. We have now brought the planet into climatic conditions never witnessed by us or our prehistoric relatives within our genus.

Excerpt

A 2024 opinion poll has unveiled the predictions of hundreds of prominent climate scientists of the IPCC, senior authors, and review editors (380 respondents). From a personal perspective, nearly 80% of these scientists anticipate global temperatures increasing by at least 2.5°C above preindustrial levels by the end of the century (Carrington 2024 <>). Nearly half of them foresee a rise of at least 3°C. A mere 6% believe that the internationally agreed-on limit of 1.5°C will be achieved (figure 5d <>). This parallels an earlier survey of IPCC scientists, which showed that approximately 60% expected warming of at least 3°C (Tollefson 2021 <>). These projections paint a bleak picture of the future, with many scientists envisioning widespread famines, conflicts, mass migration, and increasing extreme weather that will surpass anything witnessed thus far, posing catastrophic consequences for both humanity and the biosphere (Carrington 2024 <>).


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"More than a century of ecological research on ecosystem responses to biotic and abiotic conditions has made clear that the effects of climate change can only be understood in synergy with other human‐caused stressors, including habitat fragmentation, roads, urbanization, and disease. The waterfowl example, in particular, centers on the fact that ducks have for millennia dealt with drought conditions by moving to other wetlands; however, the plowing under of sites in the PPR [Prairie Pothole Region] interacts with climate change to leave few avenues ... "

Steve Running and Scott Mills. (2009) "Terrestrial Ecosystem Adaption," a book chapter in Adaption: An Initiative of the Climate Policy Program at Resources for the Future.

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