[MCN] The world has begun lurching from one climate and weather extreme to another

[Lance Olsen]

nature reviews earth & environment https://doi.org/10.1038/s43017-024-00624-z
Review article 

Hydroclimate volatility
on a warming Earth
Daniel L. Swain
1,2,3
Noah S. Diffenbaugh
, Andreas F. Prein
10, Deepti Singh
3,4, John T. Abatzoglou
11, Christopher B. Skinner
5, Christine M. Albano
12 & Danielle Touma
6, Manuela Brunner
7,8,9
,
13
Abstract

Hydroclimate volatility refers to sudden, large and/or frequent
transitions between very dry and very wet conditions. In this Review,
we examine how hydroclimate volatility is anticipated to evolve with
anthropogenic warming. Using a metric of ‘hydroclimate whiplash’
based on the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index,
global-averaged subseasonal (3-month) and interannual (12-month)
whiplash have increased by 31–66% and 8–31%, respectively, since the
mid-twentieth century. Further increases are anticipated with ongoing
warming, including subseasonal increases of 113% and interannual
increases of 52% over land areas with 3 °C of warming; these changes
are largest at high latitudes and from northern Africa eastward into
South Asia. Extensive evidence links these increases primarily to
thermodynamics, namely the rising water-vapour-holding capacity
and potential evaporative demand of the atmosphere. Increases in
hydroclimate volatility will amplify hazards associated with rapid
swings between wet and dry states (including flash floods, wildfires,
landslides and disease outbreaks), and could accelerate a water
management shift towards co-management of drought and flood risks.
A clearer understanding of plausible future trajectories of hydroclimate
volatility requires expanded focus on the response of atmospheric
circulation to regional and global forcings, as well as land–ocean–
atmosphere feedbacks, using large ensemble climate model
simulations, storm-resolving high-resolution models and emerging
machine learning methods.
====================
“Conservationists are unquestionably useful people. And among the many useful services that they have rendered has been that of dramatizing the vast appetite the United States has developed for materials of all kinds.”

“But what of the appetite itself? Surely this is the ultimate source of the problem. If it continues its geometric course, will it not one day have to be restrained? Yet in the literature of the resource problem this is the forbidden question. Over it hangs a nearly total silence. It is as though, in the discussion of the chance for avoiding automobile accidents, we agree not to make any mention of speed!”

John K. Galbraith. “How much should a country consume?”

In Jarrett, Henry (editor), Perspectives on Conservation. 

John Hopkins Press. 1958
http://www.preservenet.com/flexibleworktime/GalbraithHowMuchShouldACountryConsume.html



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