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--></style><title>Re: [MCN] Severe Wildfires Not Increasing in
Western Dry F</title></head><body>
<div>Baker says and I'm sure believes that fire severity is not
increasing. It might be worth noting that he has consistently reported
the opposite of what the majority of fire/forest scientists are
finding. This doesn't necessarily make him wrong, or at least not
entirely wrong. It just means his findings differ markedly from what
the majority of authoritative researchers find when they look at the
same issue, and the consistency of his minority findings does raise
the possibility that his research is faulty.</div>
<div><br></div>
<div>He sure seems correct though, in stressing that fire is not
increasing only because of fuel buildup from past suppression of fire.
That's a popular idea, and of course there must be fuel for fire to
happen. But there's plenty of reason to accept that drought, heat, and
wind are combining as the leading force in the start and spread of
forest fire, savannah fire, and grass fire in a changing climate. In
that context, it matters a bit less what's going on with the fires of
today than what's coming down the road at forests worldwide.</div>
<div><br></div>
<div>And fire itself may, like the beetle, be of less importance to
the future of forests than the combination of heat with drought.
This trend has been described by Overpeck as the problem of "hot
drought." And Anderegg has found good evidence that drought alone
is capable of killing, for instance, aspen across wide areas of its
range. Prior to their assessments, found that hot drought killed
pinyon pine at "massive" scale, without the help of fire or
beetles.</div>
<div><br></div>
<div><br></div>
<blockquote type="cite" cite>Despite the 'hot' political rhetoric this
year - and in previous years - from Sen Daines, Sen Tester, Rep
Zinke, Gov Bullock, the Rocky Mountain Elk Foundation's CEO David
Allen, the timber industry, most of the media and a handful of
pro-logging 'collaborators' at the Montana Wilderness Association,
Montana Trout Unlimited and The Nature Conservancy....severe wildfires
are NOT increasing in western dry forests, according to new reach by
Dr. Willian Baker at the University of Wyoming.</blockquote>
<blockquote type="cite" cite><br></blockquote>
<blockquote type="cite" cite>If you value public lands management
guided by science and the best, emerging new research - rather than
political winds - please give this study a read and help counter
wildfire hysteria, and hold those who spread it accountable.
Thanks.</blockquote>
<blockquote type="cite" cite><br></blockquote>
<blockquote type="cite" cite>- Matthew Koehler</blockquote>
<blockquote type="cite" cite>WildWest Institute</blockquote>
<blockquote type="cite" cite><a
href="http://www.WildWestInstitute.org">www.WildWestInstitute.org</a
></blockquote>
<blockquote type="cite" cite><br></blockquote>
<blockquote type="cite" cite><br></blockquote>
<blockquote type="cite" cite><b>Severe Wildfires Not Increasing in
Western Dry Forests, Study Finds</b></blockquote>
<blockquote type="cite" cite><br></blockquote>
<blockquote type="cite" cite><a
href=
"http://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/severe-wildfires-not-increasing-in-western-dry-forests-study-finds-300139770.html"><span
></span
>http://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/severe-wildfires-not-increas<span
></span>ing-in-western-dry-forests-study-finds-300139770.html</a></blockquote
>
<blockquote type="cite" cite><br></blockquote>
<blockquote type="cite" cite>LARAMIE, Wyo., Sept. 9, 2015 /PRNewswire/
-- Severe wildfires are often thought to be increasing, but new
research published today in the international science journal PLOS ONE
shows that severe fires from 1984-2012 burned at rates that were less
frequent than historical rates in dry forests (low-elevation pine and
dry mixed-conifer forests) of the western USA overall, and fire
severity did not increase during this period.</blockquote>
<blockquote type="cite" cite><br></blockquote>
<blockquote type="cite" cite>The study by Dr. William Baker of the
University of Wyoming compared records of recent severe fires across
63 million acres of dry forests, about 20% of total conifer forest
area in the western USA, with data on severe fires before A.D. 1900
from multiple sources.</blockquote>
<blockquote type="cite" cite><br></blockquote>
<blockquote type="cite" cite>"Infrequent severe fires are major
ecosystem renewal events that maintain biological diversity, provide
essential habitat for wildlife, and diversify forest landscapes so
they are more resilient to future disturbances," said Dr. Baker.
"Recent severe fires have not increased because of mis-management
of dry forests or unusual fuel buildup, since these fires overall are
occurring at lower rates than they did before 1900. These data suggest
that federal forest restoration and wildfire programs can be
redirected to restore and manage severe fires at historical rates,
rather than suppress them."</blockquote>
<blockquote type="cite" cite><br></blockquote>
<blockquote type="cite" cite>Key findings from the new
study:</blockquote>
<blockquote type="cite" cite><br></blockquote>
<blockquote type="cite" cite>* Rates of severe fires in dry forests
from 1984-2012 were within the pre-1900 range, or were less frequent,
overall across the western USA and in 42 of 43 smaller analysis
regions.</blockquote>
<blockquote type="cite" cite><br></blockquote>
<blockquote type="cite" cite>* It would take more than 875 years, at
1984-2012 rates, for severe fires to burn across all dry forests,
which is longer than the range of 217-849 years across pre-1900
forests. These forests have ample time to regenerate after severe
fires and reach old age before the next severe fire.</blockquote>
<blockquote type="cite" cite><br></blockquote>
<blockquote type="cite" cite>* Severe fires are not becoming more
frequent in most areas, as a significant upward trend in area burned
severely was found in only 3 of 23 dry pine analysis regions and 1 of
20 dry mixed-conifer regions in parts of the Southwest and Rocky
Mountains from 1984-2012. Also, the fraction of total fire area that
burned severely did not increase overall or in any
region.</blockquote>
<blockquote type="cite" cite><br></blockquote>
<blockquote type="cite" cite>* Although not yet occurring in most
areas, increases in severe fire projected by 2046-2065 could be
absorbed in most regions without exceeding pre-1900 rates, but it
would be wise to redirect housing and infrastructure into safer
settings and reduce fuels near them.</blockquote>
<blockquote type="cite" cite><br></blockquote>
<blockquote type="cite" cite>Pre-1900 rates of severe fires were
calculated from land-survey records across 4 million acres of dry
forests in Arizona, California, Colorado, and Oregon, and analysis of
government Forest Inventory and Analysis records and early aerial
photography. These reconstructions are corroborated by paleo-charcoal
records at seven sites in Arizona, Idaho, New Mexico, and
Oregon.</blockquote>
<blockquote type="cite" cite><br></blockquote>
<blockquote type="cite" cite>Dr. William L. Baker is an Emeritus
Professor in the Program in Ecology/Department of Geography at the
University of Wyoming, Laramie, Wyoming. He is the author of over 120
peer-reviewed scientific publications, and also contributed to the new
book, The Ecological Importance of Mixed-Severity Fires: Nature's
Phoenix, which features the work of 27 scientists from around the
world.</blockquote>
<blockquote type="cite" cite><br></blockquote>
<blockquote type="cite" cite>His new study, titled "Are
high-severity fires burning at much higher rates recently than
historically in dry-forest landscapes of the western USA?", was
published today in the international scientific journal PLOS ONE, and
is freely available at: <a
href="http://dx.plos.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0136147"
>http://dx.plos.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0136147</a></blockquote>
<blockquote type="cite" cite>Contact person: Dr. William Baker,
970-403-3862, Email</blockquote>
<blockquote type="cite" cite><br></blockquote>
<blockquote type="cite" cite><br>
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