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--></style><title>Future US forest condition: What's realistic,
"achievable"</title></head><body>
<div><font face="Arial">Forest Ecology and Management<b><br>
</b>Volume 360, 15 January 2016, Pages 80-96</font></div>
<div><font face="Arial">doi:10.1016/j.foreco.2015.10.009</font></div>
<div><font face="Arial"><br></font></div>
<div><font face="Arial">Review and synthesis</font><br>
<font face="Arial"></font></div>
<div><font face="Arial"><b>Achievable future conditions as a framework
for guiding forest conservation and management</b></font></div>
<div><font face="Arial">S.W. Golladay et al<x-tab>
</x-tab><x-tab>
</x-tab></font></div>
<div><font face="Arial"><br></font></div>
<div><font face="Arial">Keywords</font></div>
<div><font face="Arial">Forest management; Conservation; Ecosystem
services; Novel ecosystems; Achievable future conditions; Southeastern
United States</font></div>
<div><font face="Arial"><br></font></div>
<div><font face="Arial">Highlights</font></div>
<div><font face="Arial">*New strategies for forest management are
necessary to sustain ecosystem services.</font></div>
<div><font face="Arial">*Goals for management should be based on
Achievable Future Conditions (AFC).</font></div>
<div><font face="Arial">*Defining AFCs requires
science-management-public partnerships.</font></div>
<div><font face="Arial">*AFCs expand on ecosystem and best
management practices using risk-based approaches.</font></div>
<div><font face="Arial">*Ongoing monitoring and reevaluation of
goals are essential for successful management.</font></div>
<div><font face="Arial"><br>
Abstract</font></div>
<div><font
face="Arial"
>http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0378112715005642</font
></div>
<div><font face="Arial"><br></font></div>
<div><font face="Arial">We contend that traditional approaches to
forest conservation and management will be inadequate given the
predicted scale of social-economic and biophysical changes in the 21st
century. New approaches, focused on anticipating and guiding
ecological responses to change, are urgently needed to ensure the full
value of forest ecosystem services for future generations. These
approaches acknowledge that change is inevitable and sometimes
irreversible, and that maintenance of ecosystem services depends in
part on novel ecosystems, i.e., species combinations with no analog in
the past. We propose that ecological responses be evaluated at
landscape or regional scales using risk-based approaches to
incorporate uncertainty into forest management efforts with subsequent
goals for management based on Achievable Future Conditions (AFC). AFCs
defined at a landscape or regional scale incorporate advancements in
ecosystem management, including adaptive approaches, resilience, and
desired future conditions into the context of the Anthropocene.
Inherently forward looking, ACFs encompass mitigation and adaptation
options to respond to scenarios of projected future biophysical,
social-economic, and policy conditions which distribute risk and
provide diversity of response to uncertainty. The engagement of
science-management-public partnerships is critical to our risk-based
approach for defining AFCs. Robust monitoring programs of forest
management actions are also crucial to address uncertainty regarding
species distributions and ecosystem processes. Development of regional
indicators of response will also be essential to evaluate outcomes of
management strategies. Our conceptual framework provides a starting
point to move toward AFCs for forest management, illustrated with
examples from fire and water management in the Southeastern United
States. Our model is adaptive, incorporating evaluation and
modification as new information becomes available and as
social-ecological dynamics change. It expands on established
principles of ecosystem management and best management practices
(BMPs) and incorporates scenarios of future conditions. It also
highlights the potential limits of existing institutional structures
for defining AFCs and achieving them. In an uncertain future of rapid
change and abrupt, unforeseen transitions, adjustments in management
approaches will be necessary and some actions will fail. However, it
is increasingly evident that the greatest risk is posed by continuing
to implement strategies inconsistent with current understanding of our
novel future.</font></div>
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<div><font face="Bookman Old Style" size="-2"
color="#000000"
>========================================================<br>
</font><font face="Geneva" size="-1" color="#262626">Study co-author
Dr Amanda Bates, from Ocean and Earth Science at the University of
Southampton, said: "In 100 years from now, 100 per cent of
species in many communities will be lost and replaced by new species
able to tolerate warmer conditions, leading to a redistribution of
species across the globe."<br>
<br>
</font><font face="Bookman Old Style" size="-2"
color="#FFFF00"><u
>http://www.eurekalert.org/pub_releases/2015-11/uos-tso111015.php</u></font
><br>
<font face="Bookman Old Style" size="-2"
color="#FFFF00"><u></u></font></div>
<div><font face="Bookman Old Style" size="-2"
color="#000000">and/or:<br>
<br>
</font><font face="Cambria" size="-2"
color="#FFFF00"><u
>http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/vaop/ncurrent/full/nature16144.<span
></span>html</u></font></div>
<div><font face="Cambria" size="-2" color="#FFFF00"><u><br>
</u></font><font face="Bookman Old Style" color="#000000"><br>
</font></div>
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