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--></style><title>Just to our north, in Alberta, big changes for 100s
of pla</title></head><body>
<div>"We found that 368 species (24%) may lose on average
> 80% of their current suitable climates (habitats), while 539
species (35%) were projected to more than double their current
suitable range. Both species richness and PD were predicted to
increase in most areas, except for the species-rich Rocky Mountains,
which are predicted to experience future declines."</div>
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<div><b>Diversity and Distributions<br>
Volume 21</b>,<b> Issue 12</b>,<b> pages 1441-1454</b>,<b> December
2015</b></div>
<div> </div>
<div><b>Gains and losses of plant species and phylogenetic diversity
for a northern high-latitude region</b></div>
<div>Jian Zhang, Scott E. Nielsen, Jessica Stolar, Youhua Chen and
Wilfried Thuiller</div>
<div> </div>
<div><b>Keywords:<br>
</b>climate refugia; ecological niche modelling; ensemble forecast;
evolutionary diversity; extinction risk; range shift</div>
<div> </div>
<div><b>Abstract</b></div>
<div><a
href="http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/ddi.12365/abstract"><b
>http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/ddi.12365/abstract</b></a></div
>
<div><b><br>
Aim<br>
</b>Forecasting potential patterns in species' distributions and
diversity under climate change is crucial for biodiversity
conservation. Although high-latitude regions are expected to
experience some of the greatest increases in temperature due to global
warming, little is known on how individual responses in species will
affect patterns in phylogenetic diversity (PD).<br>
<b>Location<br>
</b>Alberta, Canada.<br>
<b>Methods</b></div>
<div>We used 160,589 occurrence records for 1541 species of seed
plants in Alberta (nearly 90% of the province's seed flora) and
ensemble niche models to project current and future suitable habitats.
We then examined climate change vulnerability of individual species
and the potential impacts of climate change on species richness, PD
and both taxonomic and phylogenetic endemism (PE). We also assessed
whether predicted losses of PD were distributed randomly across the
plant tree of life.<br>
<b>Results<br>
</b>We found that 368 species (24%) may lose on average > 80%
of their current suitable climates (habitats), while 539 species (35%)
were projected to more than double their current suitable range. Both
species richness and PD were predicted to increase in most areas,
except for the species-rich Rocky Mountains, which are predicted to
experience future declines. Maps of taxonomic and PE identified
several regions with high conservation value and climate change threat
suggesting priorities for conservation and climate change adaptation.
Overall, a non-random extinction risk was found for Alberta's flora,
demonstrating potential future impacts of climate change on the loss
of evolutionary history.<br>
<b>Main conclusions</b></div>
<div>Our analyses suggest that climate change will have asymmetrical
effects on the distribution of Alberta's plant diversity and endemism
and a non-random extinction risk of the current state of species
evolutionary history. Our results provide practical guidance for
biodiversity conservation and management in this region by
prioritizing species' vulnerabilities and places with higher taxonomic
or evolutionary risk due to future climate change.</div>
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<div><font face="Lucida Grande" size="-1" color="#141413">"Climate
change will alter ecosystem services, perceptions of value, and
decisions regarding land uses. Outcomes for people will be determined
by the interaction between changes in biophysical environments (e.g.,
climate, disturbance, and invasive species) and human responses to
those changes (management and policy)."<br>
<br>
</font><font face="Arial" size="-1" color="#141413">United States
Department of Agriculture<br>
Forest Service<br>
Pacific Northwest Research Station<br>
General Technical Report PNW-GTR-870<br>
December 2012</font></div>
<div><font face="Cambria" size="-2"
color="#FFFF00"><u
>http://www.fs.fed.us/pnw/pubs/pnw_gtr870/pnw_gtr870.pdf</u></font></div
>
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