<!doctype html public "-//W3C//DTD W3 HTML//EN">
<html><head><style type="text/css"><!--
blockquote, dl, ul, ol, li { padding-top: 0 ; padding-bottom: 0 }
--></style><title>Burn fossil fuels, kill cows</title></head><body>
<div>BMC Veterinary Research (2015) 11:291 DOI
10.1186/s12917-015-0607-2</div>
<div><br></div>
<div><b>Heat stress related dairy cow mortality during heat waves and
control periods in rural Southern Ontario from 2010-2012</b></div>
<div>Katherine E. Bishop-Williams et al</div>
<div><br>
Abstract<br>
Background: Heat stress is a physiological response to extreme
environmental heat such as heat waves. Heat stress can result in
mortality in dairy cows when extreme heat is both rapidly changing and
has a long duration. As a result of climate change, heat waves, which
are defined as 3 days of temperatures of 32 °C or above, are an
increasingly frequent extreme weather phenomenon in Southern Ontario.
Heat waves are increasing the risk for on-farm dairy cow mortality in
Southern Ontario. Heat stress indices (HSIs) are generally based on
temperature and humidity and provide a relative measure of discomfort
which can be used to predict increased risk of on-farm dairy cow
mortality. In what follows, the heat stress distribution was described
over space and presented with maps. Similarly, on-farm mortality was
described and mapped. The goal of this study was to demonstrate that
heat waves and related HSI increases during 2010-2012 were
associated with increased on-farm dairy cow mortality in Southern
Ontario.</div>
<div><br>
Mortality records and farm locations for all farms registered in the
CanWest Dairy Herd Improvement Program in Southern Ontario were
retrieved for 3 heat waves and 6 three-day control periods from 2010
to 2012. A random sample of controls (2:1) was taken from the data set
to create a risk-based hybrid design. On-farm heat stress was
estimated using data from 37 weather stations and subsequently
interpolated across Southern Ontario by geostatistical kriging. A
Poisson regression model was applied to assess the on-farm mortality
in relation to varying levels of the HSI.</div>
<div><br>
Results: For every one unit increase in HSI the on-farm mortality rate
across Southern Ontario increases by 1.03 times (CI95% (IRR) =
(1.025,1.035); p = ¾ 0.001). With a typical 8.6 unit increase in HSI
from a control period to a heat wave, mortality rates are predicted to
increase by 1.27 times.</div>
<div><br>
Conclusions: Southern Ontario was affected by heat waves, as
demonstrated by high levels of heat stress and increased on-farm
mortality. Farmers should be aware of these risks, and informed of
appropriate methods to mitigate such risks.</div>
<x-sigsep><pre>--
</pre></x-sigsep>
<div><font face="Geneva" size="-1"
color="#000000"
>--------------------------------------------------------------------<span
></span
>---------------------------------------------------------------</font
></div>
<div><font face="Geneva" size="-1" color="#000000">"Localized
ecological systems are known to shift abruptly and irreversibly from
one state to another when they are forced across critical thresholds.
Here we review evidence that the global ecosystem as a whole can react
in the same way and is approaching a planetary-scale critical
transition as a result of human influence."<br>
<br>
Barnovsky et al. Approaching a state shift in Earth's biosphere.<i>
Nature</i> Volume 486, 07 June 2012<br>
doi:10.1038/nature11018</font></div>
<div><font face="Geneva" size="-1"
color="#000000"
>--------------------------------------------------------------------<span
></span
>---------------------------------------------------------------<br>
"We are living on the surface of this planet Š and with its
climate and atmosphere. It has always been the task of mankind to find
the right answer to the problem these conditions set us, and even
today we cannot think that we have found a sufficient answer." p.
131<br>
<br>
Quoted from<i> The Individual Psychology of Alfred Adler,</i> by Heinz
L. and Rowena R. Ansbacher. 1956. Basic Books</font></div>
<div><font face="Lucida Grande" size="-1" color="#000000"><br>
</font><font face="Cambria" size="-2" color="#FFFF00"><u><br>
</u></font></div>
</body>
</html>