<!doctype html public "-//W3C//DTD W3 HTML//EN">
<html><head><style type="text/css"><!--
blockquote, dl, ul, ol, li { padding-top: 0 ; padding-bottom: 0 }
--></style><title>"Massive conifer mortality due to" rising
temperature</title></head><body>
<div><font face="Arial"><i>Nature Climate Change</i> (2015)
doi:10.1038/nclimate2873<br>
Published online 21 December 2015<br>
<br>
<b>Multi-scale predictions of massive conifer mortality due to chronic
temperature rise</b><br>
N. G. McDowell, A. P. Williams, C. Xu, W. T. Pockman, L. T. Dickman,
S. Sevanto, R. Pangle, J. Limousin, J. Plaut, D. S. Mackay, J. Ogee,
J. C. Domec, C. D. Allen, R. A. Fisher, X. Jiang, J. D. Muss, D. D.
Breshears, S. A. Rauscher & C. Koven<br>
<br>
Abstract<b> (Bold emphasis added)</b><br>
<u
>http://www.nature.com/nclimate/journal/vaop/ncurrent/full/nclimate28</u
>73.html</font><br>
<font face="Arial"></font></div>
<div><font face="Arial">Global temperature rise and extremes
accompanying drought threaten forests(1, 2) and their associated
climatic feedbacks (3, 4). Our ability to accurately simulate
drought-induced forest impacts remains highly uncertain (5, 6) in part
owing to our failure to integrate physiological measurements,
regional-scale models, and dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs).
Here we show consistent predictions of widespread mortality of<b>
needleleaf evergreen trees (NET)</b> within Southwest USA by 2100
using state-of-the-art models evaluated against empirical data sets.
Experimentally, dominant Southwest USA NET species died when they fell
below predawn water potential thresholds (April-August mean) beyond
which photosynthesis, hydraulic and stomatal conductance, and
carbohydrate availability approached zero. The evaluated regional
models accurately predicted NET pd, and 91% of predictions (10 out of
11) exceeded mortality thresholds within the twenty-first century due
to temperature rise. The independent DGVMs predicted<b> 50% loss of
Northern Hemisphere NET by 2100, consistent with the NET findings for
Southwest USA. Notably, the global models underestimated future
mortality within Southwest USA, highlighting that predictions of
future mortality within global models may be underestimates</b>. Taken
together, the validated regional predictions and the global
simulations predict widespread conifer loss in coming decades under
projected global warming.</font></div>
<div><br></div>
<x-sigsep><pre>--
</pre></x-sigsep>
<div><font face="Geneva"
color="#000000">-------------------------------------------------<br>
"He who knows he has enough is rich."<br>
Lao-Tzu</font></div>
</body>
</html>