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<div>National Science Foundation<font face="Verdana Bold"> Press
Release 16-019</font></div>
<div><font face="Verdana Bold">February 22, 2016</font></div>
<div><font face="Lucida Grande"><br></font></div>
<div><font face="Verdana Bold" size="+1">Increasing drought threatens
almost all U.S. forests</font></div>
<div><font face="Verdana"><br>
Forests nationwide are feeling the heat from increasing drought and
climate change, according to a new study by scientists from 14
research institutions.</font></div>
<div><font face="Verdana"><br>
"Over the last two decades, warming temperatures and variable
precipitation have increased the severity of forest droughts across
much of the continental United States," said James Clark, lead
author of the study and an environmental scientist at Duke
University.</font></div>
<div><font face="Verdana"><br>
Clark and colleagues published their paper today in the journal<i>
Global Change Biology.</i></font></div>
<div><font
face="Verdana"><i
><<http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/gcb.13160/full<span
></span>>></i></font></div>
<div><font face="Verdana"><br>
"While the effects have been most pronounced in the West, our
analysis shows virtually that all U.S. forests are now
experiencing change and are vulnerable to future declines," Clark
said.</font></div>
<div><font face="Verdana"><br>
It's a tall order to predict what these forests will look like in 20
years, the researchers say.</font></div>
<div><font face="Verdana"><br>
</font><font face="Verdana Bold">Drought across the U.S.
West</font><font face="Verdana"><br>
Drought-induced forest diebacks (the deaths of entire communities of
trees known as stands), bark beetle infestations, and wildfires
are already occurring on large scales across the West. Many models
predict droughts are likely to become more severe, frequent and
prolonged across much of the U.S.</font></div>
<div><font face="Verdana"><br>
Evidence is also mounting that climate is changing faster
than tree populations can respond.</font></div>
<div><font face="Verdana"><br>
As conditions become drier and warmer, many tree populations,
especially those in Eastern forests, may not be able to expand into
new, more favorable habitats, fast enough to keep up.</font></div>
<div><font face="Verdana"><br>
"Most forest research is carried out at local study sites, where
trees are individually catalogued and measured," said Henry
Gholz, a program director in the Division of Environmental Biology at
the National Science Foundation (NSF), which supported the research.
"This approach risks 'missing the forest for the
trees.'"</font></div>
<div><font face="Verdana"><br>
The new results show that changes in both western and eastern U.S.
forests could happen quickly under drier conditions in the future,
said Gholz.</font></div>
<div><font face="Verdana"><br>
"Prolonged drought affects wildfire risks, species distribution,
forest biodiversity and productivity, and virtually all goods and
services provided by forests," Clark said, "so there is a
pressing need to know what is happening now, what might happen in the
future, and how we can manage for these changes."</font></div>
<div><font face="Verdana"><br>
</font><font face="Verdana Bold">Forests and drought, from A to
Z</font><font face="Verdana"><br>
The new paper addresses this need by providing a comprehensive
overview of current and projected drought effects on forests
nationwide, how they vary by region, and which management practices
could help to partially mitigate adverse effects.</font></div>
<div><font face="Verdana"><br>
The paper also identifies critical gaps in our knowledge base that
hinder scientists' ability to predict the pace and extent of future
drought effects on forests.</font></div>
<div><font face="Verdana"><br>
"We currently have a pretty good handle on predicting the impacts
of climate change and drought on individual trees," Clark said.
"Ecologists have identified many of the important differences
between species that explain how they respond differently to
drought."</font></div>
<div><font face="Verdana"><br>
But, he said, uncertainty still exists about what might happen at the
species-wide or stand-wide levels, particularly in Eastern forests.
"These are the scales where we really need reliable predictions
so forest managers can take steps now to help reduce large-scale
adverse future effects."</font></div>
<div><font face="Verdana"> <br>
Without a stronger basis for understanding how the complex
interactions among trees, species and environmental conditions work at
broader scales, even the most sophisticated current models can provide
only limited guidance, Clark said. "That's where we need to focus
our efforts now."</font></div>
<div><font face="Verdana"><br>
Major co-authors of the paper are Louis Iverson and Christopher W.
Woodall of the U.S. Forest Service, as well as scientists with the
U.S. Geological Survey, the University of Vermont, the University of
California (UC), Santa Barbara, Sarah Lawrence College, the University
of Michigan, the University of Arizona, Ohio State University, Harvard
Forest, UC Davis, Northern Arizona University and the Swiss Federal
Research Institute.</font></div>
<div><font face="Verdana"><br></font></div>
<div><font face="Verdana">-NSF-<br>
</font><font face="Verdana Bold">Media Contacts</font><font
face="Lucida Grande"><b><br>
</b></font><font face="Verdana">Cheryl Dybas, NSF, (703) 292-7734,<u>
cdybas@nsf.gov</u></font><font face="Lucida Grande"><br>
</font><font face="Verdana">Tim Lucas, Duke University, (919)
613-8084,<u> tdlucas@duke.edu</u></font></div>
<div><font face="Verdana"><br>
</font><font face="Verdana Bold">Related Websites</font><font
face="Lucida Grande"><b><br>
</b></font><font face="Verdana">NSF News: Cause of California drought
linked to climate change:<u>
https://www.nsf.gov/news/news_summ.jsp?cntn_id=132709</u></font><font
face="Lucida Grande"><br>
</font><font face="Verdana">NSF News: Drought, heat likely to affect
U.S. West's power grid:<u>
http://www.nsf.gov/news/news_summ.jsp?cntn_id=135021</u></font><font
face="Lucida Grande"><br>
</font><font face="Verdana">NSF Discovery: Earth Week: Bark beetles
change Rocky Mountain stream flows, affect water quality:<u>
http://nsf.gov/discoveries/disc_summ.jsp?cntn_id=130951</u></font><font
face="Lucida Grande"><br>
</font><font face="Verdana">NSF Discovery: Ghosts of Forests Past:
Bark Beetles Kill Lodgepole Pines, Affecting Entire Watersheds:<u>
http://www.nsf.gov/discoveries/disc_summ.jsp?cntn_id=128398</u></font><font
face="Lucida Grande"><br>
</font><font face="Verdana">NSF Discovery: Born during a drought: Bad
news for baboons:<u>
http://nsf.gov/discoveries/disc_summ.jsp?cntn_id=134000&org=NSF</u
><br>
<br>
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<div><font face="Verdana" size="-1"
color="#1A1A1A"
>===========================================================<br>
<span
></span> <br>
<span
></span
> <span
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tale of two big economic shifts <<<<<br>
<br>
".... many scientists say deep emissions cuts are necessary Š to
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<div><font face="Verdana" size="-1" color="#1A1A1A"><br>
Rachel Pannett and Jeffrey Ball. "Australia Approves Energy
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</font><font face="Verdana Bold Italic" size="-1" color="#1A1A1A">The
Wall Street Journal</font><font face="Verdana" size="-1"
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<br>
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<div><font face="Verdana" size="-1" color="#1A1A1A"><br>
</font><font face="Verdana Bold Italic" size="-1"
color="#1A1A1A">Business Week</font><font face="Verdana" size="-1"
color="#1A1A1A">, November 21, 1994, p. 72.</font><br>
<font face="Verdana" size="-1" color="#1A1A1A"></font></div>
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