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--></style><title>Re: Northern Rockies Ecosystem Protection
Act</title></head><body>
<div>Montana Public Radio's Edward O'Brien interviewed the spokeswoman
for the Montana Logging Association, which opposes the Northern
Rockies Ecosystem Protection Act (NREPA). She said NREPA is based on
science that's now 24 years old -- she specifically referred to the
science that points to the importance of "connectivity"
between areas like the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem and the ecosystem
comprised of Glacier National Park and the Bob Marshall Wilderness.
She also said that science can change</div>
<div><br></div>
<div>It's true that NREPA did some pioneering toward establishing
"connectivity" between areas of high regional importance to
wildlife, and that it was based on the science of the day.</div>
<div><br></div>
<div>And yes, science can change, and yes again, the scientific record
of evidence on connectivity between fragments of wild areas has indeed
changed. One major change is that the scientific consensus on
connectivity has grown. In the intervening 20+ years, the importance
of connectivity has been recognized and supported even more strongly
than it was when NREPA wrote it into formal legislation. Another major
change in science is that connectivity between natural areas has been
found essential to wildlife conservation in a time of climate
change.</div>
<div><br></div>
<div>As a matter of fact, it was only this month that 20+ years of
consensus on connectivity showed up in a global heavyweight of science
-- America's own National Academies of Science. In this latest report,
it also becomes apparent that the best hope for establishing
connectivity is in the West, which of course includes the area covered
by NREPA.</div>
<div><br></div>
<div> See for yourself how the importance of connectivity was
endorsed by scientific consensus within days of the MLA spokeswoman's
dismissive remarks.</div>
<div><br></div>
<div><font face="Lucida Grande">PNAS -Early Edition doi:
10.1073/pnas.1602817113</font></div>
<div><font face="Lucida Grande"><br>
<b>Achieving climate connectivity in a fragmented
landscape</b></font><font face="Arial"><br>
</font><font face="Lucida Grande">Jenny L. McGuire etal</font><font
face="Arial"><br>
</font><font face="Lucida Grande"><br>
Keywords</font><font face="Arial"><br>
</font><font face="Lucida Grande">climate connectivity - climate
change<b> -</b> habitat fragmentation - corridors</font><font
face="Arial"><br>
</font><font face="Lucida Grande"><br>
<b>Bold emphasis added</b></font><font face="Arial"><br>
</font><font face="Lucida Grande"><br>
Significance</font></div>
<div><font face="Lucida Grande">Many plants and animals will need to
move large distances to track preferred climates, but fragmentation
and barriers limit their movements. We asked to what degree and where
species will be able to track suitable climates.<b> We demonstrate
that only 41% of US natural land area is currently connected enough to
allow species to track preferred temperatures as the planet warms over
the next 100 years</b>. If corridors allowed movement between all
natural areas, species living in 65% of natural area could track their
current climates, allowing them to adjust to 2.7 °C more temperature
change.<b> </b> Facilitating movement will be crucial for
preventing biodiversity losses.</font></div>
<div><font face="Lucida Grande"><br>
Abstract</font><font face="Arial"><br>
</font><font
face="Lucida Grande"><u
>http://www.pnas.org/content/early/2016/06/07/1602817113.abstract</u></font
><br>
<font face="Arial"></font></div>
<div><font face="Lucida Grande"><b>The contiguous United States
contains a disconnected patchwork of natural lands. This fragmentation
by human activities limits species' ability to track suitable climates
as they rapidly shift</b>. However, most models that project species
movement needs have not examined where fragmentation will limit those
movements. Here, we quantify climate connectivity, the capacity of
landscape configuration to allow species movement in the face of
dynamically shifting climate. Using this metric, we assess to what
extent habitat fragmentation will limit species movements in response
to climate change. We then evaluate how creating corridors to promote
climate connectivity could potentially mitigate these restrictions,
and we assess where strategies to increase connectivity will be most
beneficial. By analyzing fragmentation patterns across the contiguous
United States, we demonstrate that only 41% of natural land area
retains enough connectivity to allow plants and animals to maintain
climatic parity as the climate warms. In the eastern United States,
less than 2% of natural area is sufficiently connected. Introducing
corridors to facilitate movement through human-dominated regions
increases the percentage of climatically connected natural area to
65%, with the most impactful gains in low-elevation regions,
particularly in the southeastern United States. These climate
connectivity analyses allow ecologists and conservation practitioners
to determine the most effective regions for increasing connectivity.
More importantly, our findings demonstrate that increasing climate<b>
connectivity is critical for allowing species to track rapidly
changing climates, reconfiguring habitats to promote access to
suitable climates.</b></font></div>
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<div><font face="Verdana" size="-1"
color="#000000">################### I have the PDF
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<div><font face="Verdana" size="-1" color="#000000"><br>
"Scholars and commentators have recently begun to highlight how
multiple, simultaneous, and interacting global stresses, such as
demographic pressure, climate change, resource scarcities, and
financial instability, are increasing global systemic risk (Beddington
2009, OECD 2011, WEF 2012, Helbing 2013, Pamlin and Armstrong
2015).</font></div>
<div><font face="Verdana" size="-1" color="#000000"><br></font></div>
<div><font face="Verdana" size="-1" color="#000000">"They often
describe the situation that humanity faces now and in coming decades
as a "perfect storm" of simultaneous crises (Sample 2009, Ahmed
2011, Ehrlich and Ehrlich 2013, Morgan 2013). Although evocative, this
phrase implies that the crises align solely by chance. We argue rather
that their simultaneity is a manifestation of an underlying causal
pattern that is becoming more prevalent, and we elaborate a conceptual
framework that provisionally describes this pattern."<br>
<br>
Homer-Dixon, T., B. Walker, R. Biggs, A.-S. Crépin, C. Folke, E. F.
Lambin, G. D. Peterson, J. Rockström, M. Scheffer, W. Steffen, and
M. Troell. 2015. Synchronous failure: the emerging causal architecture
of global crisis. Ecology and Society 20(3): 6.<br>
</font><font face="Verdana" size="-1" color="#006D6D">http://dx.doi.
org/10.5751/ES-07681-200306<br>
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