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it's wetter</title></head><body>
<div><font color="#000000">Biological Conservation Volume 206,
February 2017, Pages 132 142<br>
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.biocon.2016.09.027<br>
<br>
Predicting carnivore distribution and extirpation rate based on human
impacts and productivity factors; assessment of the state of jaguar
(Panthera onca) in Venezuela<br>
WBodzimierz Jdrzejewski et al</font><br>
<font color="#000000"></font></div>
<div><font color="#000000">Highlights<br>
<br>
"Carnivores depend on joint effects of anthropogenic and
environmental factors.</font></div>
<div><font color="#000000"> </font></div>
<div><font color="#000000">"Jaguars disappear faster in dry,
unproductive areas.</font><br>
<font color="#000000"></font></div>
<div><font color="#000000">"Chances of persistence are higher in
humid and productive areas.</font></div>
<div><font color="#000000"><br>
"Carnivore declines cannot be predicted from human density
alone.</font></div>
<div><font color="#000000"><br>
Abstract<br>
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0006320716304748</font
><br>
<font color="#000000"></font></div>
<div><font color="#000000">The worldwide decline in carnivore
populations has been attributed to various human impacts. However, our
understanding of the mechanisms behind these declines is insufficient
to predict the timing and location of local extinctions. We collected
data on presence/absence and time since extirpation of jaguars across
Venezuela. To test if human impacts or ecosystem productivity better
explain the observed spatial variation in probability of jaguar
occurrence we compared logistic regression models fit with different
combinations of anthropogenic and environmental variables. Similarly,
we modelled the time since extirpation, using a multiple regression
approach. Our study supported the hypothesis that jaguar extirpations
and distribution are determined by a joint effect of anthropogenic
factors and environmental variables, mainly those related with
ecosystem productivity. Human population density and habitat
alterations exerted strong negative effects on jaguar populations,
while annual precipitation, mean temperature, forest cover, primary
productivity, and other vegetation indices had positive effects. The
strength of human impact is shaped by ecosystem productivity: jaguars
disappear faster in dry, unproductive areas, and survive better in
humid, productive areas even when human densities are higher. We
estimated that jaguars in Venezuela have been extirpated from
approximately 26% of the territory of Venezuela; present jaguar range
covers approximately 66% of the country. We demonstrate that human
population density alone cannot adequately explain past extirpations
nor predict future jaguar declines. We conclude that the predicted
future growth of the human population will not necessarily determine
jaguar declines, and proper management and conservation programs could
potentially prevent jaguar extirpations.<font size="-2"><br>
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color="#141413"
>==-------------------------------------------------==---------------<span
></span>-----------------------------------==</font></div>
<div><font face="Verdana" size="-1" color="#000000">"We describe
the "landscape trap" concept, whereby entire landscapes are
shifted into, and then maintained (trapped) in, a highly compromised
structural and functional state as the result of mul- tiple temporal
and spatial feedbacks between human and natural disturbance
regimes."</font></div>
<div><font face="Verdana" size="-1" color="#000000"><br></font></div>
<div><font face="Verdana" size="-1" color="#000000">David B.
Lindenmayer et al. Newly discovered landscape traps produce regime
shifts in wet forests PNAS Early Edition
www.pnas.org/cgi/doi/10.1073/pnas.1110245108</font></div>
<div><font face="Verdana" size="-1"
color="#141413"
>==------------------------------------------------------------------<span
></span>--------------------------------------</font></div>
<div><font face="Verdana" size="-1" color="#141413">"Challenges in
predicting responses of individual tree species to climate are a
result of species competing under a climate regime that we have not
seen before and they may not have experienced before."</font></div>
<div><font face="Verdana" size="-1" color="#141413"><br></font></div>
<div><font face="Verdana" size="-1" color="#141413">Fred L. Bunnell &
Laurie L. Kremsater. Migrating Like a Herd of Cats: Climate Change and
Emerging Forests in British Columbia.</font><font
face="Verdana Italic" size="-1" color="#141413"><i> Journal of
Ecosystems and Management</i></font><font face="Verdana" size="-1"
color="#141413"> 13(2):1-24 2012.</font></div>
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</font><font face="Verdana" size="-1" color="#000000"><br>
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