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--></style><title>Increased river flooding at 1.5C, 2C, and 4C global
heat l</title></head><body>
<div>Geospace - American Geophysical Union Blogosphere: Global flood
risk could increase five-fold with a 4-degree C temperature rise</div>
<div><br></div>
<div>Excerpt:</div>
<div>The increase in flood risk is highest for Asia, America and
Europe<br>
<br>
Longer excerpt:</div>
<div><br></div>
<div>The new research, published in Earth's Future<font
face="Arial Bold"> [Open Access]</font>
<<http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2016EF000485/full<span
></span>>>, a journal of the American Geophysical Union,
presents a global assessment of the economic costs and the population
affected by river floods under different global warming scenarios. The
research team analyzed a selection of high-resolution climate
projections and simulations, and assessed the frequency and magnitude
of river floods and their expected impacts under future scenarios.<br>
<br>
The study reveals that, with a 4-degree Celsius temperature increase
globally, countries representing 73 percent of the global population
would face a 580 percent increase in flood risk. In addition, 79
percent of the global economy would face a 500 percent increase in
flood damages. In the case of a 2-degree Celsius temperature increase,
both the affected population and the related flood damages would rise
by 170 percent compared to present levels. Even under the most
optimistic scenario of a 1.5-degree Celsius temperature increase, the
authors estimate that the flood-affected population would still
double, and flood damages would increase by 120 percent.<br>
</div>
<div>The projected changes are not evenly distributed across the
globe. The increase in flood risk is highest for Asia, America and
Europe, while it remains low for most countries in Africa and Oceania,
independent of the temperature increase.</div>
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<div><font face="Cambria" size="-1" color="#000000">"</font><font
face="Verdana" size="-1" color="#000000">By the end of the 21st
century, forest ecosystems in the United States will differ from those
of today as a result of changing climate."<br>
<br>
Vose, James M.; Peterson, David L.; Patel-Weynand, Toral. 2012.
Effects of climatic variability and change on forest ecosystems: a
comprehensive science synthesis for the U.S.<i> General Technical
Report PNW-GTR-870.</i> Portland, OR: U.S. Department of Agriculture,
Forest Service, Pacific Northwest Research Station. 265
p.</font><font face="Verdana" size="-1" color="#FFFF00"><u>
http://treesearch.fs.fed.us/pubs/42610</u></font></div>
<div><font face="Geneva" size="-1"
color="#000000"
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></div>
<div><font face="Geneva" size="-1"
color="#000000">"Conservationists must therefore assess both
current and future distributions of species. .... One critical
question is whether models Š can Š provide robust predictions of
future distributions under climate change."<br>
<br>
Miguel B. Araújo and Carsten Rahbek.<br>
"How Does Climate Change Affect Biodiversity?"</font></div>
<div><font face="Geneva" size="-1" color="#000000"><i>Science</i>,
Vol. 313, September 8, 2006</font></div>
<div><font face="Verdana" size="-1"
color="#000000"
>^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^</font></div
>
<div><font face="Verdana" size="-1" color="#000000">" Š. the
earth's atmosphere is so thoroughly mixed and so rapidly recycled
through the biosphere that the next breath you inhale will contain
atoms exhaled by Jesus at Gethsemane and Adolf Hitler at
Munich."<br>
<br>
Preston Cloud and Aharon Gibor. "The Oxygen Cycle."<br>
Scientific American, September 1970</font><br>
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<div><font face="Geneva" size="-1" color="#000000"><br></font></div>
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