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<div><font color="#000000">Institute Of Physics PUBLISHING<x-tab>
</x-tab>ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS</font></div>
<div><font color="#000000">Environ. Res. Lett. 7 (2012) 014016
(8pp)<x-tab> </x-tab></font><font
color="#0000FF">doi:10.1088/1748-9326/7/1/014016</font></div>
<div><font color="#0000FF"><br></font></div>
<div><font color="#000000">Assessing confidence in management
adaptation approaches for climate-sensitive ecosystems<br>
J M West, S H Julius and C P Weaver</font></div>
<div><br></div>
<div><font color="#000000">Global Change Research Program, National
Center for Environmental Assessment, Office of Research and
Development, US Environmental Protection Agency, 1200 Pennsylvania
Avenue, NW (8601P), Washington, DC 20460, USA</font></div>
<div><font color="#0000FF"><br></font></div>
<div><font color="#000000">Received 16 November 2011 Accepted for
publication 25 January 2012 Published 15 February 2012 Online
at</font><font color="#0000FF">
stacks.iop.org/ERL/7/014016</font></div>
<div><font color="#0000FF"><br></font></div>
<div><font color="#000000">Keywords: climate change, adaptation,
ecosystems, resilience, management, uncertainty,
confidence</font></div>
<div><font color="#0000FF"><br></font></div>
<div><font color="#000000">Abstract<b> [bold added]</b></font></div>
<div><font color="#000000">A number of options are available for
adapting ecosystem management to improve resilience in the face of
climatic changes. However, uncertainty exists as to the effectiveness
of these options. A report prepared for the US Climate Change Science
Program reviewed adaptation options for a range of federally managed
systems in the United States. The report included a qualitative
uncertainty analysis of conceptual approaches to adaptation derived
from the review. The approaches included reducing anthropogenic
stressors, protecting key ecosystem features, maintaining
representation, replicating, restoring, identifying refugia and
relocating organisms. The results showed that<b> the expert teams had
the greatest scientific confidence in adaptation options that reduce
anthropogenic stresses.</b> Confidence in other approaches was lower
because of gaps in understanding of ecosystem function, climate change
impacts on ecosystems, and management effectiveness. This letter
discusses insights gained from the confidence exercise and proposes
strategies for improving future assessments of confidence for
management adaptations to climate change.</font></div>
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<div><font face="Geneva" size="-1" color="#000000">"Š the race
between climate dynamics and climate policy will be a close one Š."
and " Š requires an industrial revolution for sustainability
starting now." </font></div>
<div><font face="Geneva" size="-1" color="#000000"><br></font></div>
<div><font face="Geneva" size="-1" color="#000000">Hans Joachim
Schellenhuber. "Global warming: Stop worrying, start
panicking?"<i><br>
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences</i> September 23,
2008 vol. 105 no. 38</font></div>
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"Just remember, this is not your grandfather's atmosphere. Things
are different now, and will get even more-so in the coming
years Š "<br>
<br>
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"Leonardo da Vinci's dictum, 'Water is the driver of nature,' is
justified on meteorological grounds alone."<br>
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Penman, H.L. The Water Cycle. Scientific American, September 1970<br>
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