<html><head><meta http-equiv="Content-Type" content="text/html charset=utf-8"></head><body style="word-wrap: break-word; -webkit-nbsp-mode: space; -webkit-line-break: after-white-space;" class=""><header style="font-size: 12.8px; font-variant-ligatures: normal; orphans: 2; widows: 2; box-sizing: border-box; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-family: 'Open Sans', 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);" class=""><div class="m_6441250366432901375release_date" style="box-sizing: border-box; text-transform: uppercase; font-weight: 600; margin-top: 23px;"><span style="color: rgb(43, 43, 43); font-family: inherit; font-weight: 300; letter-spacing: -0.34px;" class=""><font size="4" class="">NEXT 10 YEARS CRITICAL FOR ACHIEVING CLIMATE CHANGE GOALS</font></span></div><p class="m_6441250366432901375meta_institute" style="font-size: 14px; box-sizing: border-box; margin: 2px 0px 20px; text-transform: uppercase; color: rgb(43, 43, 43);">INTERNATIONAL INSTITUTE FOR APPLIED SYSTEMS ANALYSIS</p><p class="m_6441250366432901375meta_institute" style="font-size: 14px; box-sizing: border-box; margin: 2px 0px 20px; text-transform: uppercase; color: rgb(43, 43, 43);"><span style="font-size: 12.5px; font-weight: 600; color: rgb(51, 51, 51);" class="">PUBLIC RELEASE: </span><time datetime="1492056000" style="font-size: 12.5px; font-weight: 600; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); box-sizing: border-box;" class=""><span class="aBn" data-term="goog_1722251892" tabindex="0" style="border-bottom: 1px dashed rgb(204, 204, 204); position: relative; top: -2px; z-index: 0;"><span class="aQJ" style="position: relative; top: 2px; z-index: -1;">13-APR-2017</span></span></time></p></header><div class="m_6441250366432901375entry" style="font-size: 12.8px; font-variant-ligatures: normal; orphans: 2; widows: 2; box-sizing: border-box; line-height: 23px; font-family: 'Open Sans', 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><p style="color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-size: 14px; box-sizing: border-box; margin: 5px 0px 15px;" class="">The historic Paris Agreement set a target of limiting future global average temperature increase to well below 2°C and pursue efforts to even further limit the average increase to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels. Yet the timing and details of these efforts were left to individual countries.</p><p style="color: rgb(51, 51, 51); box-sizing: border-box; margin: 5px 0px 15px;" class=""><span style="font-size: 14px;" class="">In a new study, published in the journal </span><em style="box-sizing: border-box;" class=""><span style="font-size: 14px;" class="">Nature Communications <<</span></em><a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/ncomms14856" target="_blank" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?hl=en&q=https://www.nature.com/articles/ncomms14856&source=gmail&ust=1492180603715000&usg=AFQjCNHKabzOZYS4bJYkQ_nCzcf4l9rsUg" style="color: rgb(17, 85, 204);" class=""><b style="font-size: 14px;" class="">https://www.nature.com/<wbr class="">articles/ncomms14856</b></a><em style="font-size: 14px; box-sizing: border-box;" class="">>></em><span style="font-size: 14px;" class="">, </span><em style="font-size: 12.8px; box-sizing: border-box;" class=""><span style="font-size: 14px;" class=""><b class="">[Open Access] </b></span></em><span style="font-size: 14px;" class="">researchers from the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) used a global model of the carbon system that accounts for carbon release and uptake through both natural and anthropogenic activities.</span></p><p style="font-size: 14px; box-sizing: border-box; margin: 5px 0px 15px;" class=""><b class="">"The study shows that the combined energy and land-use system should deliver zero net anthropogenic emissions well before 2040 in order to assure the attainability of a 1.5°C target</b><font color="#333333" class=""> by 2100," says IIASA Ecosystems Services and Management Program Director Michael Obersteiner, a study coauthor.</font></p><p style="color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-size: 14px; box-sizing: border-box; margin: 5px 0px 15px;" class="">According to the study, fossil fuel consumption would likely need to be reduced to less than 25% of the global energy supply by 2100, compared to 95% today. At the same time, land use change, such as deforestation, must be decreased. This would lead to a 42% decrease in cumulative emissions by the end of the century compared to a business as usual scenario.</p><p style="color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-size: 14px; box-sizing: border-box; margin: 5px 0px 15px;" class="">"This study gives a broad accounting of the carbon dioxide in our atmosphere, where it comes from and where it goes. We take into account not just emissions from fossil fuels, but also agriculture, land use, food production, bioenergy, and carbon uptake by natural ecosystems," explains World Bank consultant Brian Walsh, who led the study while working as an IIASA researcher.</p><p style="color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-size: 14px; box-sizing: border-box; margin: 5px 0px 15px;" class="">The compares four different scenarios for future energy development, with a range of mixtures of renewable and fossil energy. In a "high-renewable" scenario where wind, solar, and bioenergy increase by around 5% a year, net emissions could peak by 2022, the study shows. Yet without substantial negative emissions technologies, that pathway would still lead to a global average temperature rise of 2.5°C, missing the Paris Agreement target.</p><p style="color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-size: 14px; box-sizing: border-box; margin: 5px 0px 15px;" class="">Walsh notes that the high-renewable energy scenario is ambitious, but not impossible--global production of renewable energy grew 2.6% between 2013 and 2014, according to the IEA. In contrast, the study finds that continued reliance on fossil fuels (with growth rates of renewables between 2% and 3% per year), would cause carbon emissions to peak only at the end of the century, causing an estimated 3.5°C global temperature rise by 2100.</p></div><div class="">
<div style="word-wrap: break-word; -webkit-nbsp-mode: space; -webkit-line-break: after-white-space;" class=""><div style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family: Helvetica; font-size: 12px; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;">-----------------------------------------------------------------------------<br class=""><br class="">"A new area of study is the field that some of us are beginning to call social traps. The term refers to situations in society that contain traps formally like a fish trap, where men or whole societies get themselves started in some direction or some set of relationships that later prove to be unpleasant or lethal and that they see no easy way to back out of or to avoid."<br class=""><br class="">John Platt. Social Traps. American Psychologist, August 1973</div><div style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family: Helvetica; font-size: 12px; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;"><br class=""></div><div style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family: Helvetica; font-size: 12px; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;">———————————————————</div><div style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family: Helvetica; font-size: 12px; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;">“Booms have consequences.”</div><div style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family: Helvetica; font-size: 12px; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;"><br class=""></div><div style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family: Helvetica; font-size: 12px; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;">Grant, James. Money of the Mind : Borrowing and Lending in America from the Civil War to Michael Milken. Farrar Straus Giroux. 1992</div></div>
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