<html><head><meta http-equiv="Content-Type" content="text/html charset=utf-8"></head><body style="word-wrap: break-word; -webkit-nbsp-mode: space; -webkit-line-break: after-white-space;" class=""><font face="Verdana" style="color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-size: 12.8px; font-variant-ligatures: normal; orphans: 2; widows: 2; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);" class=""><span style="font-size: 14px;" class="">Nature Climate Climate Change <span class="aBn" data-term="goog_744706631" tabindex="0" style="border-bottom: 1px dashed rgb(204, 204, 204); position: relative; top: -2px; z-index: 0;"><span class="aQJ" style="position: relative; top: 2px; z-index: -1;">April 17 2017</span></span></span></font><div style="color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: 12.8px; font-variant-ligatures: normal; orphans: 2; widows: 2; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);" class=""><a href="http://www.nature.com/doifinder/10.1038/nclimate3271" target="_blank" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?hl=en&q=http://www.nature.com/doifinder/10.1038/nclimate3271&source=gmail&ust=1492547539339000&usg=AFQjCNGKl7RfAd49oRDlFaxV8w4gHByrvQ" style="color: rgb(17, 85, 204); text-decoration: none; display: inline; margin-top: 0px;" class=""><font face="Verdana" color="#000000" style="font-size: 14px;" class=""><br class="">Rising seas force migration</font></a></div><div style="color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: 12.8px; font-variant-ligatures: normal; orphans: 2; widows: 2; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);" class=""><font face="Verdana" class=""><span style="font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-size: 14px;" class=""></span></font><div style="margin: 0.25em 0px; padding: 0px; font-weight: bold; line-height: 1.4em; overflow: hidden; font-variant-ligatures: normal;" class=""><font face="Verdana" style="font-size: 14px;" class="">Matthew E. Hauer <i class="">et al</i>.</font></div><div class="m_4472813466242845270standfirst" style="margin: 0.25em 0px 0px; padding: 0px; font-variant-ligatures: normal;"><font face="Verdana" style="font-size: 14px;" class="">Sea-level rise will impact heavily populated coastal areas, necessitating adaptation or migration. This study considers how potential migration away from affected areas will have a broader effect on the US population landscape.</font></div><div class="m_4472813466242845270standfirst" style="margin: 0.25em 0px 0px; padding: 0px; font-variant-ligatures: normal;"><font face="Verdana" style="font-size: 14px;" class=""><br class=""></font></div><div class="m_4472813466242845270standfirst" style="margin: 0.25em 0px 0px; padding: 0px; font-variant-ligatures: normal;"><font face="Verdana" style="font-size: 14px;" class="">Abstract <b class="">[bold added]</b></font></div><div class="m_4472813466242845270standfirst" style="margin: 0.25em 0px 0px; padding: 0px; font-variant-ligatures: normal;"><a href="https://www.nature.com/nclimate/journal/vaop/ncurrent/full/nclimate3271.html" target="_blank" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?hl=en&q=https://www.nature.com/nclimate/journal/vaop/ncurrent/full/nclimate3271.html&source=gmail&ust=1492547539339000&usg=AFQjCNFhr-HAIZ350pPjmuN3hPom4QlEGw" style="color: rgb(17, 85, 204);" class="">https://www.nature.com/<wbr class="">nclimate/journal/vaop/<wbr class="">ncurrent/full/nclimate3271.<wbr class="">html</a></div><div class="m_4472813466242845270standfirst" style="margin: 0.25em 0px 0px; padding: 0px; font-variant-ligatures: normal;"><br class=""></div><div class="m_4472813466242845270standfirst" style="margin: 0.25em 0px 0px; padding: 0px; font-variant-ligatures: normal;"><span style="color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-family: arial, helvetica, "ＭＳ Ｐゴシック", "ＭＳ ゴシック", Osaka, "MS PGothic", sans-serif; font-size: 14.495px; font-variant-ligatures: normal;" class="">Many sea-level rise (SLR) assessments focus on populations presently inhabiting vulnerable coastal communities</span><sup style="font-size: 12.3207px; line-height: 0; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-family: arial, helvetica, "ＭＳ Ｐゴシック", "ＭＳ ゴシック", Osaka, "MS PGothic", sans-serif; font-variant-ligatures: normal;" class=""><a href="https://www.nature.com/nclimate/journal/vaop/ncurrent/full/nclimate3271.html#ref1" title="Hauer, M. E., Evans, J. M. & Mishra, D. R. Millions projected to be at risk from sea-level rise in the continental United States. Nat. Clim. Change 6, 691-695 (2016)." id="m_4472813466242845270ref-link-1" target="_blank" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?hl=en&q=https://www.nature.com/nclimate/journal/vaop/ncurrent/full/nclimate3271.html%23ref1&source=gmail&ust=1492547539339000&usg=AFQjCNECQurXZEY_GRdq8l_eu0jmbvshNA" style="color: rgb(92, 121, 150); text-decoration: none;" class="">1</a>, <a href="https://www.nature.com/nclimate/journal/vaop/ncurrent/full/nclimate3271.html#ref2" title="Strauss, B. H., Kulp, S. & Levermann, A. Carbon choices determine US cities committed to futures below sea level. Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA 112, 13508-13513 (2015)." id="m_4472813466242845270ref-link-2" target="_blank" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?hl=en&q=https://www.nature.com/nclimate/journal/vaop/ncurrent/full/nclimate3271.html%23ref2&source=gmail&ust=1492547539339000&usg=AFQjCNEbhoK0gVZy0vgkWICFbEtIaRbsHg" style="color: rgb(92, 121, 150); text-decoration: none;" class="">2</a>, <a href="https://www.nature.com/nclimate/journal/vaop/ncurrent/full/nclimate3271.html#ref3" title="Lelieveld, J. et al. Strongly increasing heat extremes in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) in the 21st century. Climatic Change 137, 245-260 (2016)." id="m_4472813466242845270ref-link-3" target="_blank" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?hl=en&q=https://www.nature.com/nclimate/journal/vaop/ncurrent/full/nclimate3271.html%23ref3&source=gmail&ust=1492547539339000&usg=AFQjCNEvkgCNeEp5ov6W8rmdPHNcOBXfhA" style="color: rgb(92, 121, 150); text-decoration: none;" class="">3</a></sup><span style="color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-family: arial, helvetica, "ＭＳ Ｐゴシック", "ＭＳ ゴシック", Osaka, "MS PGothic", sans-serif; font-size: 14.495px; font-variant-ligatures: normal;" class="">, but to date no studies have attempted to model the destinations of these potentially displaced persons. With millions of potential future migrants in heavily populated coastal communities, SLR scholarship focusing solely on coastal communities characterizes SLR as primarily a coastal issue, obscuring the potential impacts in landlocked communities created by SLR-induced displacement. Here I address this issue by merging projected populations at risk of SLR</span><sup style="font-size: 12.3207px; line-height: 0; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-family: arial, helvetica, "ＭＳ Ｐゴシック", "ＭＳ ゴシック", Osaka, "MS PGothic", sans-serif; font-variant-ligatures: normal;" class=""><a href="https://www.nature.com/nclimate/journal/vaop/ncurrent/full/nclimate3271.html#ref1" title="Hauer, M. E., Evans, J. M. & Mishra, D. R. Millions projected to be at risk from sea-level rise in the continental United States. Nat. Clim. Change 6, 691-695 (2016)." id="m_4472813466242845270ref-link-4" target="_blank" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?hl=en&q=https://www.nature.com/nclimate/journal/vaop/ncurrent/full/nclimate3271.html%23ref1&source=gmail&ust=1492547539339000&usg=AFQjCNECQurXZEY_GRdq8l_eu0jmbvshNA" style="color: rgb(92, 121, 150); text-decoration: none;" class="">1</a></sup><span style="color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-family: arial, helvetica, "ＭＳ Ｐゴシック", "ＭＳ ゴシック", Osaka, "MS PGothic", sans-serif; font-size: 14.495px; font-variant-ligatures: normal;" class=""> with migration systems simulations to project future destinations of SLR migrants in the United States. I find that unmitigated SLR is <b class="">expected to reshape the US population distribution, potentially stressing landlocked areas unprepared to accommodate this wave of coastal migrants—even after accounting for potential adaptation. </b>These results provide the first glimpse of how climate change will reshape future population distributions and establish a new foundation for modelling potential migration destinations from climate stressors in an era of global environmental change.</span></div></div><div class="">
<div style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family: Helvetica; font-size: 12px; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: auto; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: auto; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-size-adjust: auto; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;">****************************************************************************************</div><div style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family: Helvetica; font-size: 12px; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: auto; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: auto; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-size-adjust: auto; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;">“Finally, we are committed to a high level of consumption because, whether we need the goods or not, we very much need the employment their production provides …. We are chained to a high level of production and consumption not by the pressure of want but by the urgencies of economic security.”<br class=""><br class="">John K. Galbraith.<br class="">“How much should a country consume?”<br class="">In Jarrett, Henry (editor), Perspectives on Conservation. John Hopkins Press. 1958<br class="">================================<br class="">“In an attempt to clarify the issues, first let us advance the following proposition: The more wasteful a society the greater the employment opportunities.”</div><div style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family: Helvetica; font-size: 12px; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: auto; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: auto; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-size-adjust: auto; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;"><br class="">Kimon Valaskakis, Peter S. Sindell, J. Graham Smith, and Iris Fitzpatrick-Martin. The Conserver Society. 1970. Harper & Row.</div>
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