<html><head><meta http-equiv="Content-Type" content="text/html charset=utf-8"></head><body style="word-wrap: break-word; -webkit-nbsp-mode: space; -webkit-line-break: after-white-space;" class=""><a href="https://www.eurekalert.org/pub_releases/2017-08/cifs-idr080817.php" class="m_-8126568769794754043has-thumb" target="_blank" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?hl=en&q=https://www.eurekalert.org/pub_releases/2017-08/cifs-idr080817.php&source=gmail&ust=1502481997719000&usg=AFQjCNFvVMLYtrr7Jp4U6y-Ml588KWV7FA" style="color: rgb(17, 85, 204); font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-variant-ligatures: normal; orphans: 2; widows: 2; box-sizing: border-box; background-color: rgb(241, 241, 241); text-decoration: none; display: block; padding: 0px; min-height: 125px;"><header style="font-size: 13px; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-family: 'Open Sans', 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; box-sizing: border-box; padding: 18px 0px; margin-right: 110px;" class=""><div class="m_-8126568769794754043reltime" style="box-sizing: border-box; margin-bottom: 2px;">Public Release: 9-Aug-2017</div><h2 class="m_-8126568769794754043post_title" style="box-sizing: border-box; font-family: inherit; font-weight: 500; line-height: 20px; color: inherit; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; font-size: 17px;">Incomplete drought recovery may be the new normal</h2><span class="m_-8126568769794754043author" style="box-sizing: border-box; text-transform: uppercase; font-size: 12px;">CARNEGIE INSTITUTION FOR SCIENCE</span></header><div class="m_-8126568769794754043hidden-xs m_-8126568769794754043entry" style="box-sizing: border-box; margin-right: 110px;"><p class="m_-8126568769794754043intro" style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px 0px 10px; border-left-width: 2px; border-left-style: solid; border-left-color: rgb(185, 186, 188); padding-left: 10px; line-height: 19px;"><font color="#000000" class="">The <b class=""><font size="4" class="">amount of time it takes</font></b> for an ecosystem to recover from a drought is an important measure of a drought's severity. During the 20th century, the total area of land affected by drought increased, and<b class=""> <font size="4" class="">longer recovery times</font> </b>became more common, according to new research published by Nature by a group of scientists including Carnegie's Anna Michalak and Yuanyuan Fang.</font></p></div><dl class="m_-8126568769794754043dl-horizontal m_-8126568769794754043hidden-xs m_-8126568769794754043meta" style="box-sizing: border-box; margin-top: 17px; margin-bottom: 20px; margin-right: 110px;"><dt class="m_-8126568769794754043yellow" style="font-size: 12.8px; box-sizing: border-box; line-height: 1.42857; float: left; width: auto; clear: left; overflow: hidden; text-overflow: ellipsis; white-space: nowrap; text-transform: uppercase; border-left-width: 2px; border-left-style: solid; border-color: rgb(255, 177, 52); padding-left: 10px; margin-bottom: 12px; min-width: 100px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;" class=""><font color="#000000" class="">JOURNAL</font></span></dt><dd style="box-sizing: border-box; line-height: 1.42857; margin-left: 100px;" class=""><em style="box-sizing: border-box;" class=""><font color="#000000" class="">Nature.<b class=""> </b></font></em><a href="http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v548/n7666/full/nature23021.html" target="_blank" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?hl=en&q=http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v548/n7666/full/nature23021.html&source=gmail&ust=1502481997719000&usg=AFQjCNF2BmnRWiXWssz1nQUWMtCqW4g31A" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); color: rgb(17, 85, 204);" class=""><b class="">http://www.nature.com/nature/<wbr class="">journal/v548/n7666/full/<wbr class="">nature23021.html</b></a></dd></dl></a><b style="color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-variant-ligatures: normal; orphans: 2; widows: 2; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);" class="">Excerpt from the release about above new report:</b><div style="font-variant-ligatures: normal; orphans: 2; widows: 2; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);" class=""><b style="color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: 12.8px;" class=""><br class=""></b><div style="color: rgb(34, 34, 34);" class=""><span style="color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-variant-ligatures: normal;" class="">"If another drought arrives before trees and other plants have recovered from the last one, the ecosystem can reach a 'tipping point' where the plants' ability to function normally is permanently affected," Fang said.</span></div><div style="color: rgb(34, 34, 34);" class=""><br class=""></div><div style="color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: arial, sans-serif;" class=""><b class=""><font size="4" class="">-----------------------</font></b></div><div style="color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: arial, sans-serif;" class=""><b class=""><font size="4" class="">2 earlier studies</font></b></div><div style="color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: 12.8px;" class=""><b class=""><br class=""></b></div><div style="color: rgb(34, 34, 34);" class="">“Contrary to the expectation that surviving trees have weathered severe drought, the hydraulic deterioration demonstrated here reveals that surviving regions of these forests are actually more vulnerable to future droughts due to accumulated xylem damage.”</div><div style="color: rgb(34, 34, 34);" class=""><div class=""><br class="">WILLIAM R. L. ANDEREGG et al. Drought’s legacy: multiyear hydraulic deterioration underlies widespread aspen forest die-off and </div><div class="">portends increased future risk. Global Change Biology (2013) 19, 1188–1196, doi: 10.1111/gcb.12100</div></div><div style="color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: 12.8px;" class=""><b class=""><br class=""></b></div><div class=""><b class=""><font color="#222222" face="arial, sans-serif" class=""><span style="font-size: 12.8px;" class="">-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------</span></font></b></div><div class=""><span style="color: rgb(34, 34, 34);" class="">“ … recovery rates decrease as a catastrophic regime shift is approached, a phenomenon known in physics as “critical slowing down.” </span></div><div class=""><span style="color: rgb(34, 34, 34);" class=""><br class=""></span></div></div><div style="color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-variant-ligatures: normal; orphans: 2; widows: 2; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);" class=""><div style="margin: 0px;" class="">Egbert H. van Nes and Marten Scheffer Slow Recovery from Perturbations as a Generic Indicator of a Nearby Catastrophic Shift<i class="">.</i><i class=""> </i></div><div style="margin: 0px;" class=""><i class="">The American Naturalist</i> June 2007</div><div style="margin: 0px;" class=""><br class=""></div><div style="margin: 0px;" class=""><br class=""></div><div style="margin: 0px;" class=""><br class=""></div></div><div class="">
<div style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family: Verdana; font-size: 14px; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: auto; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: auto; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-size-adjust: auto; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;">+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++</div><div style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family: Verdana; font-size: 14px; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: auto; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: auto; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-size-adjust: auto; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;">“We are constantly deciding how much information is enough.” (p. 44)<br class=""><br class="">“Once we finally reach a decision we are relieved to have the uncertainly of decision making behind us. </div><div style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family: Verdana; font-size: 14px; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: auto; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: auto; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-size-adjust: auto; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;">And now somebody turns up and tells us things that call the wisdom of that decision into question again.” </div><div style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family: Verdana; font-size: 14px; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: auto; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: auto; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-size-adjust: auto; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;">(pp. 99-100)<br class=""><br class="">Dietrich Dorner. The Logic of Failure: Recognizing and Avoiding Error in Complex Situations.<br class="">1989 in German by Rowolt Verlag GMBH.<br class="">1996 in English by Metropolitan Books, Perseus Books.</div>
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