<html><body style="word-wrap: break-word; -webkit-nbsp-mode: space; -webkit-line-break: after-white-space;" class=""><span style="color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: 12.8px; font-variant-ligatures: normal; orphans: 2; widows: 2; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);" class="">Excerpts </span><b style="color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: 12.8px; font-variant-ligatures: normal; orphans: 2; widows: 2; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);" class="">[ Bold added ]</b><span style="color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: 12.8px; font-variant-ligatures: normal; orphans: 2; widows: 2; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);" class="">: "</span><span style="color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-variant-ligatures: normal; orphans: 2; widows: 2; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, "Lucida Grande", sans-serif; font-size: 14.4px; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);" class="">There is a mounting consensus, however, that <b class="">we will see more intense hurricanes.”</b></span><div style="color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: 12.8px; font-variant-ligatures: normal; orphans: 2; widows: 2; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);" class=""><br class=""></div><div style="color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: 12.8px; font-variant-ligatures: normal; orphans: 2; widows: 2; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);" class="">“...<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, "Lucida Grande", sans-serif; font-size: 14.4px; font-variant-ligatures: normal;" class="">observational data support the expectation from models that t<b class="">he strongest storms are getting stronger.”</b></span></div><div style="color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: 12.8px; font-variant-ligatures: normal; orphans: 2; widows: 2; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);" class=""><div class=""><font face="Arial, Helvetica, Lucida Grande, sans-serif" class=""><span style="font-size: 14.4px;" class=""><br class=""></span></font></div><div class=""><font face="Arial, Helvetica, Lucida Grande, sans-serif" class=""><span style="font-size: 14.4px;" class="">"</span></font><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, "Lucida Grande", sans-serif; font-size: 14.4px;" class="">The results of numerous such studies can be summarized briefly as follows: due to global warming we do not necessarily expect more tropical storms overall, but an increasing number of particularly strong storms in categories 4 and 5, <b class="">especially storms of previously unobserved strength.</b> This assessment has been widely agreed on at least since the 4th IPCC Report of 2007 and reaffirmed several times since then. A review article in the leading journal</span><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, "Lucida Grande", sans-serif; font-size: 14.4px;" class=""> </span><em style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, "Lucida Grande", sans-serif; font-size: 14.4px;" class="">Science</em><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, "Lucida Grande", sans-serif; font-size: 14.4px;" class=""> </span><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, "Lucida Grande", sans-serif; font-size: 14.4px;" class="">(Sobel et al. 2016) concluded:</span></div><blockquote style="border-left-width: 5px; border-left-style: solid; border-left-color: rgb(204, 204, 204); margin-left: 1.5em; padding-left: 5px; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, "Lucida Grande", sans-serif; font-size: medium; font-variant-ligatures: normal;" class=""><p style="font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-stretch: normal; font-size: 14.4px; line-height: 18px; letter-spacing: 0px;" class=""><em class="">We thus expect tropical cyclone intensities to increase with warming, both on average and at the high end of the scale, so that <b class="">the strongest future storms will exceed the strength of any in the past.</b></em></p></blockquote><div class=""><div class=""><font face="Arial, Helvetica, Lucida Grande, sans-serif" class=""><span style="font-size: 14.4px;" class=""><br class=""></span></font></div><div class=""><font face="Arial, Helvetica, Lucida Grande, sans-serif" class=""><span style="font-size: 14.4px;" class="">“ ...</span></font><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, "Lucida Grande", sans-serif; font-size: 14.4px;" class="">in most major tropical cyclone regions, the storms with the highest wind speeds on record have been observed in recent years (see Fig. 1 based on reanalysis by Velden et al. 2017). The strongest globally was Patricia (2015), which topped the previous record holder Haiyan (2013).</span><font face="Arial, Helvetica, Lucida Grande, sans-serif" class=""><span style="font-size: 14.4px;" class="">”</span></font></div><div class=""><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, "Lucida Grande", sans-serif; font-size: 14.4px;" class=""><br class=""></span></div><div class=""><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, "Lucida Grande", sans-serif; font-size: 14.4px;" class="">"</span><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, "Lucida Grande", sans-serif; font-size: 14.4px;" class="">A significant global increase (95% significance level) can be found in all storms with maximum wind speeds from 175 km/h. Storms of 200 km/h and more have doubled in number, and those of 250 km/h and more have tripled.</span><font face="Arial, Helvetica, Lucida Grande, sans-serif" class=""><span style="font-size: 14.4px;" class="">”</span></font></div><div class=""><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, "Lucida Grande", sans-serif; font-size: 14.4px;" class=""><br class=""></span></div><div class=""><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, "Lucida Grande", sans-serif; font-size: 14.4px; font-variant-ligatures: normal;" class=""><b class="">"The average location where the storms are reaching their peak intensity is also slowly migrating poleward </b>(Kossin et al. 2014) and the area where storms occur expands (Benestad 2009, Lucas et al. 2014), which changes patterns of storm risk and increases risk in regions that are historically less threatened by these storms (Kossin et al. 2016).”</span></div><div class=""><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, "Lucida Grande", sans-serif; font-size: 14.4px; font-variant-ligatures: normal;" class=""><br class=""></span></div><div class=""><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, "Lucida Grande", sans-serif; font-size: 14.4px; font-variant-ligatures: normal;" class="">"</span><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, "Lucida Grande", sans-serif; font-size: 14.4px;" class="">While there may not yet be a “smoking gun” – a single piece of evidence that removes all doubt – the weight of the evidence suggests that <b class="">the thirty-year-old prediction of more intense and wetter tropical cyclones is coming to pass</b>. This is a risk that we can no longer afford to ignore."</span></div><div class=""><br class=""></div><div class=""><a href="http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2018/05/does-global-warming-make-tropical-cyclones-stronger/" target="_blank" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?hl=en&q=http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2018/05/does-global-warming-make-tropical-cyclones-stronger/&source=gmail&ust=1527891840783000&usg=AFQjCNFC2Yxog-Lh3myURoleOai4NXd4PQ" style="color: rgb(17, 85, 204);" class="">http://www.realclimate.org/<wbr class="">index.php/archives/2018/05/<wbr class="">does-global-warming-make-<wbr class="">tropical-cyclones-stronger/</a></div></div></div></body></html>