<html><head><meta http-equiv="Content-Type" content="text/html; charset=utf-8"></head><body style="word-wrap: break-word; -webkit-nbsp-mode: space; line-break: after-white-space;" class=""><a class="author-name bold" href="http://money.com/money/author/bloomberg/" style="font-family: "PT Serif", Georgia, Times, serif; font-size: 12px; letter-spacing: 0.5px; orphans: 2; widows: 2; box-sizing: border-box; font-weight: 700; text-decoration: none; color: rgb(0, 101, 155); text-transform: uppercase;">BLOOMBERG </a><div class="published-date timestamp padding-12-left" style="font-family: "PT Serif", Georgia, Times, serif; font-size: 12px; letter-spacing: 0.5px; orphans: 2; widows: 2; box-sizing: border-box; padding: 2px; color: rgb(139, 141, 145); display: inline-block;">March 6, 2019</div><div class=""><br class=""></div><div class=""><b class="">1st 2 paragraphs</b><div class=""><span class="" style="font-family: "PT Serif", Georgia, Times, serif; font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.5px; color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.952941); orphans: 2; widows: 2; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><br class=""></span></div><div class=""><span class="" style="font-family: "PT Serif", Georgia, Times, serif; font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.5px; color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.952941); orphans: 2; widows: 2; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">More than three-quarters of business economists expect the U.S. to enter a recession by the end of 2021, though a majority still estimate the Federal Reserve will continue raising interest rates this year.</span></div><div class=""><span class="" style="font-family: "PT Serif", Georgia, Times, serif; font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.5px; color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.952941); orphans: 2; widows: 2; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><br class=""></span></div><div class=""><span class="" style="font-family: "PT Serif", Georgia, Times, serif; font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.5px; color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.952941); orphans: 2; widows: 2; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">Ten percent saw a recession beginning this year, 42 percent project one next year, while 25 percent expect a contraction starting in 2021, according to a semiannual National Association for Business Economics survey released Monday. The rest expect a recession later than 2021 or expressed no opinion, the Jan. 30-Feb. 8 poll of nearly 300 members showed.</span></div><div class=""><div class="" style="orphans: 2; widows: 2;"><font color="rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.952941)" face="PT Serif, Georgia, Times, serif" class=""><span class="" style="caret-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.952941); font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.5px; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><br class=""></span></font></div><div class="" style="orphans: 2; widows: 2;"><span class="" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); caret-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.952941); font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.5px;"><font color="#000095" face="PT Serif, Georgia, Times, serif" class=""><a href="http://money.com/money/5637691/economists-recession/" class="">http://money.com/money/5637691/economists-recession/</a></font></span></div><div class=""><span class="" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); caret-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.952941); font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.5px;"><br class=""></span></div></div></div><div class="">
<div style="caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 14px; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); text-decoration: none; margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal;" class=""><span style="-webkit-font-kerning: none;" class=""><br class="Apple-interchange-newline">=====================</span></div><div style="caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 14px; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; text-decoration: none; margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal;" class=""><span style="-webkit-font-kerning: none; background-color: rgb(255, 251, 0);" class="">“Booms have consequences.”</span></div><div style="caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 14px; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); text-decoration: none; margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal;" class=""><span style="-webkit-font-kerning: none;" class=""><br class=""></span></div><div style="caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 14px; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); text-decoration: none; margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal;" class=""><span style="-webkit-font-kerning: none;" class="">James Grant. <i class="">Money of the Mind : Borrowing and Lending in America from the Civil War to Michael Milken.</i> Farrar Straus Giroux. 1992.</span></div><div style="caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 14px; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); text-decoration: none; margin: 0px 0px 0.1px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; color: rgb(34, 34, 34);" class=""><span style="-webkit-font-kerning: none;" class="">——————————————————————————</span></div><div style="caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 14px; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); text-decoration: none; margin: 0px 0px 0.1px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; color: rgb(34, 34, 34);" class=""><span style="-webkit-font-kerning: none;" class=""><br class=""></span></div><div style="caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 14px; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; text-decoration: none; margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal;" class=""><span style="background-color: rgb(255, 251, 0);" class="">“The growth in CO2 emissions closely follows the growth in Gross Domestic Product (GDP)</span><span style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);" class=""> corrected for improvements in energy efficiency.”</span></div><div style="caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 14px; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); text-decoration: none; margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; min-height: 16px;" class=""><br class=""></div><div style="caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 14px; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); text-decoration: none; margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal;" class="">P. Friedlingstein, et al. “Update on CO2 emissions.” </div><div style="caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 14px; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); text-decoration: none; margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal;" class=""><i class="">Nature Geoscience. </i>Published online: 21 November 2010</div><div style="caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 14px; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); text-decoration: none; margin: 0px 0px 0.1px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal;" class=""><span style="-webkit-font-kerning: none;" class="">~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~</span></div><div style="caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 14px; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); text-decoration: none; margin: 0px 0px 0.1px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal;" class=""><span style="-webkit-font-kerning: none;" class=""><br class=""></span></div><div style="caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 14px; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); text-decoration: none; margin: 0px 0px 0.1px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; color: rgb(34, 34, 34);" class=""><span style="-webkit-font-kerning: none;" class="">In a July, 2001 editorial, <i class="">The Economist </i>said that “It is no coincidence that the deepest and most protracted recessions in recent decades have taken hold in countries that experienced booms ...” </span></div><div style="caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 14px; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); text-decoration: none; margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal;" class="">————————————————————————————————</div><div style="caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 14px; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); text-decoration: none; margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal;" class=""><br class=""></div><div style="caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 14px; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; text-decoration: none; margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal;" class=""><span style="background-color: rgb(255, 251, 0);" class="">“Changes in world GDP (WGDP) have a significant effect on CO2 concentrations, so that years of above-trend WGDP are years of greater rise of CO2 concentrations.”</span></div><div style="caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 14px; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); text-decoration: none; margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; min-height: 16px;" class=""><br class=""></div><div style="caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 14px; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); text-decoration: none; margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal;" class="">Granados et al. Climate change and the world economy: short-run determinants of atmospheric CO2. <i class="">Environmental science & policy</i> 21 (2012) 50–62</div><div style="caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 14px; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); text-decoration: none; margin: 0px 0px 0.1px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal;" class=""><br class=""></div><br class="Apple-interchange-newline">
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