<html><head><meta http-equiv="Content-Type" content="text/html; charset=utf-8"></head><body style="word-wrap: break-word; -webkit-nbsp-mode: space; line-break: after-white-space;" class=""><div style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: initial; margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; color: rgb(80, 80, 80); -webkit-text-stroke-color: rgb(80, 80, 80);" class=""><span style="-webkit-font-kerning: none; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);" class=""><a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/journal/09593780" class="">Global Environmental Change</a></span></div><div style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: initial; margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; color: rgb(46, 46, 46); -webkit-text-stroke-color: rgb(46, 46, 46);" class=""><span style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);" class=""><span style="-webkit-font-kerning: none; color: rgb(12, 125, 187); -webkit-text-stroke-color: rgb(12, 125, 187);" class=""><a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/journal/09593780/54/supp/C" class="">Volume 54</a></span><span style="-webkit-font-kerning: none;" class="">, January 2019, Pages 239-249</span></span></div><div style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: initial; margin: 0px; text-align: right; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; color: rgb(46, 46, 46); -webkit-text-stroke-color: rgb(46, 46, 46); min-height: 16px;" class=""><span style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);" class=""><span style="-webkit-font-kerning: none;" class=""></span><br class=""></span></div><p style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: initial; margin: 0px 0px 16px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; color: rgb(80, 80, 80); -webkit-text-stroke-color: rgb(80, 80, 80);" class=""><span style="-webkit-font-kerning: none; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);" class=""><b class="">Climate, conflict and forced migration</b></span></p><div style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: initial; margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; color: rgb(12, 125, 187); -webkit-text-stroke-color: rgb(12, 125, 187);" class=""><span style="-webkit-font-kerning: none; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);" class=""><a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0959378018301596#!" class="">Guy J.Abel<span style="font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; -webkit-font-kerning: none; color: rgb(12, 125, 187);" class="">a</span><span style="font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; -webkit-font-kerning: none; color: rgb(12, 125, 187);" class="">MichaelBrottrager</span><span style="font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; -webkit-font-kerning: none; color: rgb(12, 125, 187);" class="">b</span><span style="font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; -webkit-font-kerning: none; color: rgb(12, 125, 187);" class="">JesusCrespo Cuaresma</span><span style="font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; -webkit-font-kerning: none; color: rgb(12, 125, 187);" class="">c</span><span style="font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; -webkit-font-kerning: none; color: rgb(12, 125, 187);" class="">RayaMuttarak</span><span style="font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; -webkit-font-kerning: none; color: rgb(12, 125, 187);" class="">d1</span></a></span></div><div style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: initial; margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; color: rgb(46, 46, 46); -webkit-text-stroke-color: rgb(46, 46, 46); min-height: 16px;" class=""><span style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);" class=""><span style="-webkit-font-kerning: none;" class=""></span><br class=""></span></div><div style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: initial; margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; color: rgb(12, 125, 187); -webkit-text-stroke-color: rgb(12, 125, 187);" class=""><span style="-webkit-font-kerning: none; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);" class=""><a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2018.12.003" class="">https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2018.12.003</a></span></div><div style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: initial; margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; color: rgb(12, 125, 187); -webkit-text-stroke-color: rgb(12, 125, 187); min-height: 16px;" class=""><br class=""></div><div style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: initial; margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; color: rgb(46, 46, 46); -webkit-text-stroke-color: rgb(46, 46, 46); min-height: 15px;" class=""><span style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);" class=""><span style="-webkit-font-kerning: none;" class=""></span></span></div><p style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: initial; margin: 0px 0px 8px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; color: rgb(80, 80, 80); -webkit-text-stroke-color: rgb(80, 80, 80);" class=""><span style="-webkit-font-kerning: none; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);" class=""><b class="">Highlights</b></span></p><div style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: initial; margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; color: rgb(46, 46, 46); -webkit-text-stroke-color: rgb(46, 46, 46);" class=""><span style="-webkit-font-kerning: none; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);" class="">•<a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/topics/earth-and-planetary-sciences/climatic-change" class=""><span style="font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; -webkit-font-kerning: none; color: rgb(12, 125, 187); -webkit-text-stroke-color: rgb(12, 125, 187);" class="">Climate change</span></a> is responsible for increase in asylum seeking through conflict.</span></div><div style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: initial; margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; color: rgb(46, 46, 46); -webkit-text-stroke-color: rgb(46, 46, 46);" class=""><span style="-webkit-font-kerning: none; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);" class="">•Reduced rainfall increases conflict which in turn drive outflow of <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/topics/social-sciences/asylum-seeker" class=""><span style="font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; -webkit-font-kerning: none; color: rgb(12, 125, 187); -webkit-text-stroke-color: rgb(12, 125, 187);" class="">asylum seekers</span></a>.</span></div><div style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: initial; margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; color: rgb(46, 46, 46); -webkit-text-stroke-color: rgb(46, 46, 46);" class=""><span style="-webkit-font-kerning: none; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);" class="">•Established causal relationship between climate, conflict and asylum seeking only in the recent period.</span></div><div style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: initial; margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; color: rgb(46, 46, 46); -webkit-text-stroke-color: rgb(46, 46, 46); min-height: 21px;" class=""><span style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);" class=""><span style="-webkit-font-kerning: none;" class=""></span><br class=""></span></div><p style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: initial; margin: 0px 0px 8px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; color: rgb(80, 80, 80); -webkit-text-stroke-color: rgb(80, 80, 80);" class=""><span style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);" class=""><span style="-webkit-font-kerning: none;" class=""><b class="">Abstract</b> [ </span><span style="font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; -webkit-font-kerning: none; color: rgb(233, 113, 28);" class="">open access</span><span style="-webkit-font-kerning: none;" class=""> ]</span></span></p><div style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: initial; margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; color: rgb(0, 0, 238); -webkit-text-stroke-color: rgb(0, 0, 238);" class=""><span style="text-decoration: underline; -webkit-font-kerning: none; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);" class=""><a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0959378018301596" class="">https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0959378018301596</a></span></div><div style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: initial; margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; color: rgb(0, 0, 238); -webkit-text-stroke-color: rgb(0, 0, 238);" class=""><br class=""></div><p style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: initial; margin: 0px 0px 16px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; color: rgb(46, 46, 46); -webkit-text-stroke-color: rgb(46, 46, 46);" class=""><span style="-webkit-font-kerning: none; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);" class="">Despite the lack of robust empirical evidence, a growing number of media reports attempt to link climate change to the ongoing violent conflicts in Syria and other parts of the world, as well as to the migration crisis in Europe. Exploiting bilateral data on asylum seeking applications for 157 countries over the period 2006–2015, we assess the determinants of refugee flows using a gravity model which accounts for endogenous selection in order to examine the causal link between climate, conflict and forced migration. Our results indicate that climatic conditions, by affecting drought severity and the likelihood of armed conflict, played a significant role as an explanatory factor for asylum seeking in the period 2011–2015. The effect of climate on conflict occurrence is particularly relevant for countries in Western Asia in the period 2010–2012 during when many countries were undergoing political transformation. This finding suggests that the impact of climate on conflict and asylum seeking flows is limited to specific time period and contexts.</span></p><div class=""><span style="-webkit-font-kerning: none; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);" class=""><br class=""></span></div><div class="">
<div style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family: Verdana; font-size: 14px; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: auto; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: auto; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-size-adjust: auto; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;">````````````````</div><div style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family: Verdana; font-size: 14px; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: auto; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: auto; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-size-adjust: auto; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;">“ Ecosystem management must avoid two traps: falsely assuming a tame solution and inaction from overwhelming complexity.”</div><div style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family: Verdana; font-size: 14px; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: auto; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: auto; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-size-adjust: auto; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;"><br class=""></div><div style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family: Verdana; font-size: 14px; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: auto; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: auto; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-size-adjust: auto; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;">
Ruth DeFries, Harini Nagendra. Ecosystem management as a wicked problem. Science Special Issue: Ecosystem Earth. Apr 21, 2017 </div><div style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family: Verdana; font-size: 14px; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: auto; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: auto; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-size-adjust: auto; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;"><br class=""></div><br class="Apple-interchange-newline">
</div>
<br class=""></body></html>