<html><head><meta http-equiv="Content-Type" content="text/html; charset=utf-8"></head><body style="word-wrap: break-word; -webkit-nbsp-mode: space; line-break: after-white-space;" class=""><div class="" style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal;">Nature Climate Change July 8, 2019</div><div class="" style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: initial; margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; color: rgb(98, 98, 98); -webkit-text-stroke-color: rgb(98, 98, 98); min-height: 17px;"><span class="" style="-webkit-font-kerning: none;"></span><br class=""></div><div class="" style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: initial; margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; -webkit-text-stroke-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);"><span class="" style="-webkit-font-kerning: none;"><b class="">Fish die-offs are concurrent with thermal extremes in north temperate lakes</b></span></div><ul class="" style="list-style-type: none;"><li class="" style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; color: rgb(0, 102, 153); -webkit-text-stroke-width: initial; -webkit-text-stroke-color: rgb(0, 102, 153);"><span class="" style="-webkit-font-kerning: none;"><a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-019-0520-y#auth-1" class="">Aaron Till</a></span><span class="" style="-webkit-font-kerning: none; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); -webkit-text-stroke-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);">, <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-019-0520-y#auth-2" class=""><span class="" style="-webkit-font-kerning: none; color: rgb(0, 102, 153); -webkit-text-stroke-color: rgb(0, 102, 153);">Andrew L. Rypel</span></a>, <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-019-0520-y#auth-3" class=""><span class="" style="-webkit-font-kerning: none; color: rgb(0, 102, 153); -webkit-text-stroke-color: rgb(0, 102, 153);">Andrew Bray</span></a> & <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-019-0520-y#auth-4" class=""><span class="" style="-webkit-font-kerning: none; color: rgb(0, 102, 153); -webkit-text-stroke-color: rgb(0, 102, 153);">Samuel B. Fey</span></a> </span></li></ul><div class="" style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: initial; margin: 0px 0px 0px 10px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; -webkit-text-stroke-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); min-height: 17px;"><span class="" style="-webkit-font-kerning: none;"></span><br class=""></div><div class="" style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: initial; margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); -webkit-text-stroke-color: rgb(34, 34, 34); background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><span class="" style="-webkit-font-kerning: none;"><b class="">Abstract</b></span></div><div class="" style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: initial; margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; color: rgb(0, 0, 238); -webkit-text-stroke-color: rgb(0, 0, 238);"><span class="" style="text-decoration: underline; -webkit-font-kerning: none;"><a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-019-0520-y" class="">https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-019-0520-y</a></span></div><div class="" style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: initial; margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; color: rgb(0, 0, 238); -webkit-text-stroke-color: rgb(0, 0, 238); min-height: 17px;"><span class="" style="text-decoration: underline; -webkit-font-kerning: none;"></span><br class=""></div><div class="" style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: initial; margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); -webkit-text-stroke-color: rgb(34, 34, 34);"><span class="" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><span class="" style="-webkit-font-kerning: none;">As environmental temperatures continue to rise and organisms experience novel and potentially lethal conditions<a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-019-0520-y#ref-CR1" class=""><span class="" style="-webkit-font-kerning: none; color: rgb(0, 102, 153); -webkit-text-stroke-color: rgb(0, 102, 153);">1</span></a>,<a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-019-0520-y#ref-CR2" class=""><span class="" style="-webkit-font-kerning: none; color: rgb(0, 102, 153); -webkit-text-stroke-color: rgb(0, 102, 153);">2</span></a>,<a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-019-0520-y#ref-CR3" class=""><span class="" style="-webkit-font-kerning: none; color: rgb(0, 102, 153); -webkit-text-stroke-color: rgb(0, 102, 153);">3</span></a>,<a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-019-0520-y#ref-CR4" class=""><span class="" style="-webkit-font-kerning: none; color: rgb(0, 102, 153); -webkit-text-stroke-color: rgb(0, 102, 153);">4</span></a>,<a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-019-0520-y#ref-CR5" class=""><span class="" style="-webkit-font-kerning: none; color: rgb(0, 102, 153); -webkit-text-stroke-color: rgb(0, 102, 153);">5</span></a>, the possibility of increased mass mortality events for animal populations appears likely<a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-019-0520-y#ref-CR1" class=""><span class="" style="-webkit-font-kerning: none; color: rgb(0, 102, 153); -webkit-text-stroke-color: rgb(0, 102, 153);">1</span></a>,<a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-019-0520-y#ref-CR6" class=""><span class="" style="-webkit-font-kerning: none; color: rgb(0, 102, 153); -webkit-text-stroke-color: rgb(0, 102, 153);">6</span></a>. Yet, due to die-off rarity and unpredictability, there have been few large-scale attempts to quantify the relationship between mass die-offs and local environmental temperatures. Here, we address this issue by</span><span class="" style="-webkit-font-kerning: none;"> analysing a database of 502</span><span class="" style="font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; font-family: "Lucida Grande"; -webkit-font-kerning: none;"> </span><span class="" style="-webkit-font-kerning: none;">freshwater fish die-offs combined with lake-specific temperature profiles simulated for north temperate lake ecosystems. Die-offs driven by extreme summer conditions occurred disproportionately in lakes with warmer average surface temperatures and during periods of extreme heat.</span><span class="" style="-webkit-font-kerning: none;"> In contrast, we observed no relationships between current thermal extremes and die-offs attributed to infectious disease or winter environmental conditions.</span><span class="" style="-webkit-font-kerning: none;"> We forecast fish die-offs driven by summer environmental conditions to<b class=""> double</b> <b class="">by [i.e., before]</b> mid-century </span><span class="" style="-webkit-font-kerning: none;">for north temperate lakes (2041–2059) and to </span><span class="" style="-webkit-font-kerning: none;">increase <b class="">more than fourfold</b> by late century (2081–2099), particularly at southern latitudes.</span><span class="" style="-webkit-font-kerning: none;"> These results expose a direct link between novel temperature regimes and the increased probability of catastrophic ecological events in freshwater ecosystems</span></span></div><div class="">
<div style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0); letter-spacing: normal; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-wrap: break-word; -webkit-nbsp-mode: space; line-break: after-white-space;" class=""><div style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0); letter-spacing: normal; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-wrap: break-word; -webkit-nbsp-mode: space; line-break: after-white-space;" class=""><div style="word-wrap: break-word; -webkit-nbsp-mode: space; line-break: after-white-space;" class="">---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------<br class=""><div class="">“The most painful and expensive way to deal with global climate change will be to ignore it until </div><div class="">something happens that elicits powerful public demands for immediate and Draconian action.”</div><div class=""><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family: Verdana; font-size: 14px; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; float: none; display: inline !important;" class=""> </span><br style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family: Verdana; font-size: 14px; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;" class=""><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family: Verdana; font-size: 14px; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; float: none; display: inline !important;" class="">Jonathan Lash.</span><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family: Verdana; font-size: 14px; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; float: none; display: inline !important;" class=""> </span><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family: Verdana; font-size: 14px; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; float: none; display: inline !important;" class="">“As the earth heats up. “ </span><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family: Verdana; font-size: 14px; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; float: none; display: inline !important;" class=""> </span><br style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family: Verdana; font-size: 14px; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;" class=""><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family: Verdana; font-size: 14px; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; float: none; display: inline !important;" class="">Journal</span><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family: Verdana; font-size: 14px; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; float: none; display: inline !important;" class=""> </span><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family: Verdana; font-size: 14px; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; float: none; display: inline !important;" class="">of Commerce</span><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family: Verdana; font-size: 14px; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; float: none; display: inline !important;" class="">, August 16, 1996.</span></div><div class=""><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family: Verdana; font-size: 14px; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; float: none; display: inline !important;" class="">———————————————————————————————————----------------------</span></div><div class=""><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family: Verdana; font-size: 14px; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; float: none; display: inline !important;" class="">“</span>Here we review evidence that the global ecosystem as a whole ... is approaching a </div><div class=""><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family: Verdana; font-size: 14px; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; float: none; display: inline !important;" class="">planetary-scale </span>critical transition as a result of human influence."</div><div class=""><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family: Verdana; font-size: 14px; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; float: none; display: inline !important;" class=""><br class="">Barnovsky et al. Approaching a state shift in Earth’s biosphere. Nature Volume 486, 07 June 2012<br class=""><br class="">doi:10.1038/nature11018<br class=""><br class=""></span></div></div></div></div>
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