<html><head><meta http-equiv="Content-Type" content="text/html; charset=utf-8"></head><body style="word-wrap: break-word; -webkit-nbsp-mode: space; line-break: after-white-space;" class=""><div style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: small; font-variant-ligatures: normal; orphans: 2; widows: 2; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; color: rgb(0, 102, 153);" class=""><i style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);" class="">Nature Climate Change </i><a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-019-0513-x#article-info" target="_blank" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-019-0513-x%23article-info&source=gmail&ust=1562703737929000&usg=AFQjCNEz-EoLXNhOmWnHtvXQJcF2w1ZY5A" style="color: rgb(17, 85, 204);" class=""><span style="font-kerning: none; color: rgb(0, 102, 153);" class="">Published: 01 July 2019</span></a></div><div style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: small; font-variant-ligatures: normal; orphans: 2; widows: 2; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; color: rgb(98, 98, 98); min-height: 17px;" class=""><span style="font-kerning: none;" class=""></span><br class=""></div><div style="color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: small; font-variant-ligatures: normal; orphans: 2; widows: 2; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal;" class=""><span style="font-kerning: none;" class="">A simple model predicts how warming simplifies wild food webs</span></div><ul style="color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: small; font-variant-ligatures: normal; orphans: 2; widows: 2; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); list-style-type: none;" class=""><li style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; color: rgb(0, 102, 153);" class=""><a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-019-0513-x#auth-1" target="_blank" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-019-0513-x%23auth-1&source=gmail&ust=1562703737929000&usg=AFQjCNFB5uzCpTQ9yANyrWToqn65XyAIQQ" style="color: rgb(17, 85, 204);" class="">Eoin J. O’Gorman</a><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);" class="">, <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-019-0513-x#auth-2" target="_blank" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-019-0513-x%23auth-2&source=gmail&ust=1562703737929000&usg=AFQjCNH6teNny_ydxGbLjAHVDi23hkgnxw" style="color: rgb(17, 85, 204);" class=""><span style="font-kerning: none; color: rgb(0, 102, 153);" class="">Owen L. Petchey</span></a>, <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-019-0513-x#auth-3" target="_blank" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-019-0513-x%23auth-3&source=gmail&ust=1562703737929000&usg=AFQjCNGrXw1r8X1MqvMsKUoeLz11vvFcAQ" style="color: rgb(17, 85, 204);" class=""><span style="font-kerning: none; color: rgb(0, 102, 153);" class="">Katy J. Faulkner</span></a>, <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-019-0513-x#auth-4" target="_blank" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-019-0513-x%23auth-4&source=gmail&ust=1562703737929000&usg=AFQjCNFdwJ56kUSTGH7WhL0VLzmbKCWqvg" style="color: rgb(17, 85, 204);" class=""><span style="font-kerning: none; color: rgb(0, 102, 153);" class="">Bruno Gallo</span></a>, <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-019-0513-x#auth-5" target="_blank" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-019-0513-x%23auth-5&source=gmail&ust=1562703737929000&usg=AFQjCNE0eRtL328tmSTmHD0tqozuKd91lw" style="color: rgb(17, 85, 204);" class=""><span style="font-kerning: none; color: rgb(0, 102, 153);" class="">Timothy A. C. Gordon</span></a>, <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-019-0513-x#auth-6" target="_blank" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-019-0513-x%23auth-6&source=gmail&ust=1562703737929000&usg=AFQjCNFIRTwfUFKmV6u5jZh3pTtrJq8Vqw" style="color: rgb(17, 85, 204);" class=""><span style="font-kerning: none; color: rgb(0, 102, 153);" class="">Joana Neto-Cerejeira</span></a>, <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-019-0513-x#auth-7" target="_blank" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-019-0513-x%23auth-7&source=gmail&ust=1562703737929000&usg=AFQjCNFw7iAPL-f2JKObLrnP_B_ODohjNA" style="color: rgb(17, 85, 204);" class=""><span style="font-kerning: none; color: rgb(0, 102, 153);" class="">Jón S. Ólafsson</span></a>, <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-019-0513-x#auth-8" target="_blank" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-019-0513-x%23auth-8&source=gmail&ust=1562703737929000&usg=AFQjCNG7oY5T5tBHIK9olqsKxvd-aGQojQ" style="color: rgb(17, 85, 204);" class=""><span style="font-kerning: none; color: rgb(0, 102, 153);" class="">Doris E. Pichler</span></a>, <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-019-0513-x#auth-9" target="_blank" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-019-0513-x%23auth-9&source=gmail&ust=1562703737929000&usg=AFQjCNFbondKQVghlvS4yJFKa6HERba08Q" style="color: rgb(17, 85, 204);" class=""><span style="font-kerning: none; color: rgb(0, 102, 153);" class="">Murray S. A. Thompson</span></a> & <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-019-0513-x#auth-10" target="_blank" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-019-0513-x%23auth-10&source=gmail&ust=1562703737929000&usg=AFQjCNFO2wl1Z2XsN9qVlTlBsHJt0pnTnQ" style="color: rgb(17, 85, 204);" class=""><span style="font-kerning: none; color: rgb(0, 102, 153);" class="">Guy Woodward</span></a> </span></li><li style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; min-height: 17px;" class=""><b class=""></b></li><li style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal;" class=""><span style="font-kerning: none;" class=""><b class="">Abstract</b></span></li><li style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; color: rgb(0, 0, 238);" class=""><span style="text-decoration: underline; font-kerning: none;" class=""><a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-019-0513-x" target="_blank" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-019-0513-x&source=gmail&ust=1562703737929000&usg=AFQjCNHS8iR-Q8wLyqFs_xqGseusRphpGA" style="color: rgb(17, 85, 204);" class="">https://www.nature.com/<wbr class="">articles/s41558-019-0513-x</a></span></li><li style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; min-height: 17px;" class=""><span style="font-kerning: none;" class=""><b class=""></b></span><br class=""></li></ul><div style="color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: small; font-variant-ligatures: normal; orphans: 2; widows: 2; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal;" class="">Warming increases the metabolic demand of consumers<a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-019-0513-x#ref-CR1" target="_blank" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-019-0513-x%23ref-CR1&source=gmail&ust=1562703737929000&usg=AFQjCNHAHNaoIBVRDzafBHmDAzxfYZ7AVw" style="color: rgb(17, 85, 204);" class=""><span style="color: rgb(0, 102, 153);" class="">1</span></a>, strengthening their feeding interactions<a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-019-0513-x#ref-CR2" target="_blank" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-019-0513-x%23ref-CR2&source=gmail&ust=1562703737930000&usg=AFQjCNFTZCMC-tBRdSD0Oa7qCC8_fQvBiA" style="color: rgb(17, 85, 204);" class=""><span style="color: rgb(0, 102, 153);" class="">2</span></a>. This <span style="background-color: rgb(255, 251, 0);" class="">could alter energy fluxes<a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-019-0513-x#ref-CR3" target="_blank" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-019-0513-x%23ref-CR3&source=gmail&ust=1562703737930000&usg=AFQjCNGAn0T7ssMyFjrvbVvwcVCWDl7Zfw" style="color: rgb(17, 85, 204);" class=""><span style="color: rgb(0, 102, 153);" class="">3</span></a>,<a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-019-0513-x#ref-CR4" target="_blank" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-019-0513-x%23ref-CR4&source=gmail&ust=1562703737930000&usg=AFQjCNEhd2ggixuT0rGWMS935oXQR1mblw" style="color: rgb(17, 85, 204);" class=""><span style="color: rgb(0, 102, 153);" class="">4</span></a>,<a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-019-0513-x#ref-CR5" target="_blank" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-019-0513-x%23ref-CR5&source=gmail&ust=1562703737930000&usg=AFQjCNEqFBelQpfgwqsjoXDkIafbuZkGkg" style="color: rgb(17, 85, 204);" class=""><span style="color: rgb(0, 102, 153);" class="">5</span></a> and even amplify extinction rates</span> within the food web<a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-019-0513-x#ref-CR6" target="_blank" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-019-0513-x%23ref-CR6&source=gmail&ust=1562703737930000&usg=AFQjCNG0EnRqJZyARy3Ae2FbqSyEFV6L-A" style="color: rgb(17, 85, 204);" class=""><span style="color: rgb(0, 102, 153);" class="">6</span></a>,<a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-019-0513-x#ref-CR7" target="_blank" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-019-0513-x%23ref-CR7&source=gmail&ust=1562703737930000&usg=AFQjCNFMcLgOEWMqwzbbp6N28CranimjOA" style="color: rgb(17, 85, 204);" class=""><span style="color: rgb(0, 102, 153);" class="">7</span></a>,<a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-019-0513-x#ref-CR8" target="_blank" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-019-0513-x%23ref-CR8&source=gmail&ust=1562703737930000&usg=AFQjCNFALGeLNN3qDGC9n6MtGb1ZL5eiCA" style="color: rgb(17, 85, 204);" class=""><span style="color: rgb(0, 102, 153);" class="">8</span></a>. Such effects could simplify the structure and dynamics of ecological networks<a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-019-0513-x#ref-CR9" target="_blank" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-019-0513-x%23ref-CR9&source=gmail&ust=1562703737930000&usg=AFQjCNEOHSUbxwGuhFPni2_Co39JUifKKA" style="color: rgb(17, 85, 204);" class=""><span style="color: rgb(0, 102, 153);" class="">9</span></a>,<a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-019-0513-x#ref-CR10" target="_blank" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-019-0513-x%23ref-CR10&source=gmail&ust=1562703737930000&usg=AFQjCNEhYAst5Zd6Lf--Prx40zmKz4bvpg" style="color: rgb(17, 85, 204);" class=""><span style="color: rgb(0, 102, 153);" class="">10</span></a>, although an empirical test in natural systems has been lacking. Here, we tested this hypothesis by characterizing around 50,000 directly observed feeding interactions across 14 naturally heated stream ecosystems<a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-019-0513-x#ref-CR11" target="_blank" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-019-0513-x%23ref-CR11&source=gmail&ust=1562703737930000&usg=AFQjCNEaMRff-sViYinKUaVbH_xX27bh7A" style="color: rgb(17, 85, 204);" class=""><span style="color: rgb(0, 102, 153);" class="">11</span></a>,<a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-019-0513-x#ref-CR12" target="_blank" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-019-0513-x%23ref-CR12&source=gmail&ust=1562703737930000&usg=AFQjCNHhS8fzitD6hBkZn0BXvwZtyMWa-Q" style="color: rgb(17, 85, 204);" class=""><span style="color: rgb(0, 102, 153);" class="">12</span></a>,<a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-019-0513-x#ref-CR13" target="_blank" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-019-0513-x%23ref-CR13&source=gmail&ust=1562703737930000&usg=AFQjCNHUKxvg5q5871Ob3SXktT2CN4ceyg" style="color: rgb(17, 85, 204);" class=""><span style="color: rgb(0, 102, 153);" class="">13</span></a>,<a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-019-0513-x#ref-CR14" target="_blank" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-019-0513-x%23ref-CR14&source=gmail&ust=1562703737930000&usg=AFQjCNGlDrUeRPdH5gCaM5GN2vh0Htix8w" style="color: rgb(17, 85, 204);" class=""><span style="color: rgb(0, 102, 153);" class="">14</span></a>,<a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-019-0513-x#ref-CR15" target="_blank" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-019-0513-x%23ref-CR15&source=gmail&ust=1562703737930000&usg=AFQjCNGbN1yqNfLdJOxc8z4OW49onPB2Ig" style="color: rgb(17, 85, 204);" class=""><span style="color: rgb(0, 102, 153);" class="">15</span></a>. We found that higher temperature simplified food-web structure and shortened the pathways of energy flux between consumers and resources. A simple allometric diet breadth model<a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-019-0513-x#ref-CR10" target="_blank" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-019-0513-x%23ref-CR10&source=gmail&ust=1562703737930000&usg=AFQjCNEhYAst5Zd6Lf--Prx40zmKz4bvpg" style="color: rgb(17, 85, 204);" class=""><span style="color: rgb(0, 102, 153);" class="">10</span></a>,<a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-019-0513-x#ref-CR16" target="_blank" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-019-0513-x%23ref-CR16&source=gmail&ust=1562703737930000&usg=AFQjCNEcdJ0BuhyXrl4EKU3CMt7TPN8BDw" style="color: rgb(17, 85, 204);" class=""><span style="color: rgb(0, 102, 153);" class="">16</span></a>predicted 68–82% of feeding interactions and the effects of warming on key food-web properties. We used model simulations to identify the underlying mechanism as a change in the relative diversity and abundance of consumers and their resources. This model shows how <span style="background-color: rgb(255, 251, 0);" class="">warming can reduce the stability of aquatic ecosystems by eroding the structural integrity of the food web. </span>Given these fundamental drivers, such responses are expected to be manifested more broadly and could be predicted using our modelling framework and knowledge of how warming alters some routinely measured characteristics of organisms.</div><div class="">
<div style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0); letter-spacing: normal; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-wrap: break-word; -webkit-nbsp-mode: space; line-break: after-white-space;" class=""><div style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0); letter-spacing: normal; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-wrap: break-word; -webkit-nbsp-mode: space; line-break: after-white-space;" class=""><div style="word-wrap: break-word; -webkit-nbsp-mode: space; line-break: after-white-space;" class="">---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------<br class=""><div class="">“The most painful and expensive way to deal with global climate change will be to ignore it until </div><div class="">something happens that elicits powerful public demands for immediate and Draconian action.”</div><div class=""><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family: Verdana; font-size: 14px; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; float: none; display: inline !important;" class=""> </span><br style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family: Verdana; font-size: 14px; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;" class=""><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family: Verdana; font-size: 14px; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; float: none; display: inline !important;" class="">Jonathan Lash.</span><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family: Verdana; font-size: 14px; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; float: none; display: inline !important;" class=""> </span><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family: Verdana; font-size: 14px; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; float: none; display: inline !important;" class="">“As the earth heats up. “ </span><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family: Verdana; font-size: 14px; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; float: none; display: inline !important;" class=""> </span><br style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family: Verdana; font-size: 14px; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;" class=""><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family: Verdana; font-size: 14px; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; float: none; display: inline !important;" class="">Journal</span><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family: Verdana; font-size: 14px; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; float: none; display: inline !important;" class=""> </span><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family: Verdana; font-size: 14px; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; float: none; display: inline !important;" class="">of Commerce</span><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family: Verdana; font-size: 14px; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; float: none; display: inline !important;" class="">, August 16, 1996.</span></div><div class=""><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family: Verdana; font-size: 14px; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; float: none; display: inline !important;" class="">———————————————————————————————————----------------------</span></div><div class=""><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family: Verdana; font-size: 14px; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; float: none; display: inline !important;" class="">“</span>Here we review evidence that the global ecosystem as a whole ... is approaching a </div><div class=""><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family: Verdana; font-size: 14px; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; float: none; display: inline !important;" class="">planetary-scale </span>critical transition as a result of human influence."</div><div class=""><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family: Verdana; font-size: 14px; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; float: none; display: inline !important;" class=""><br class="">Barnovsky et al. Approaching a state shift in Earth’s biosphere. Nature Volume 486, 07 June 2012<br class=""><br class="">doi:10.1038/nature11018<br class=""><br class=""></span></div></div></div></div>
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