<html><head><meta http-equiv="Content-Type" content="text/html; charset=utf-8"></head><body style="word-wrap: break-word; -webkit-nbsp-mode: space; line-break: after-white-space;" class=""><h3 class="m_7671030320009715927storytitle" id="m_7671030320009715927post-22503" style="color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-variant-ligatures: normal; orphans: 2; widows: 2; border-bottom-width: 1px; border-bottom-style: dotted; border-bottom-color: rgb(238, 238, 238); font-family: "Times New Roman", Times, serif; margin: 0px; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">Excerpt :</h3><h3 class="m_7671030320009715927storytitle" id="m_7671030320009715927post-22503" style="color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-variant-ligatures: normal; orphans: 2; widows: 2; border-bottom-width: 1px; border-bottom-style: dotted; border-bottom-color: rgb(238, 238, 238); font-family: "Times New Roman", Times, serif; margin: 0px; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><br class=""></h3><h3 class="m_7671030320009715927storytitle" id="m_7671030320009715927post-22503" style="color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-variant-ligatures: normal; orphans: 2; widows: 2; border-bottom-width: 1px; border-bottom-style: dotted; border-bottom-color: rgb(238, 238, 238); font-family: "Times New Roman", Times, serif; margin: 0px; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><a href="http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2019/08/how-much-co2-your-country-can-still-emit-in-three-simple-steps/" rel="bookmark" title="Permanent Link to How much CO2 your country can still emit, in three simple steps" target="_blank" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2019/08/how-much-co2-your-country-can-still-emit-in-three-simple-steps/&source=gmail&ust=1565293851677000&usg=AFQjCNG4VSVPUElJaiCRgh9PBjnlBfUDEQ" class="" style="color: rgb(51, 85, 34); text-decoration: none;">How much CO2 your country can still emit, in three simple steps</a></h3><div class="m_7671030320009715927meta" style="font-variant-ligatures: normal; orphans: 2; widows: 2; font-size: 0.75em; color: gray; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, "Lucida Grande", sans-serif; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">Filed under: <ul class="m_7671030320009715927post-categories" style="display: inline; list-style: none; margin: 0px; padding: 0px;"><li class="" style="margin-left: 15px; font-stretch: normal; font-size: 10.8px; line-height: 13.5px; letter-spacing: 0px; display: inline;"><a href="http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/category/climate-science/" rel="category tag" target="_blank" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/category/climate-science/&source=gmail&ust=1565293851677000&usg=AFQjCNGPs-hFIpbKR4f_F5RQ9jVSntYrzA" class="" style="color: gray; letter-spacing: 0px;">Climate Science</a></li></ul> — stefan @ 6 August 2019</div><div class="m_7671030320009715927entry" style="color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-size: small; font-variant-ligatures: normal; orphans: 2; widows: 2; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, "Lucida Grande", sans-serif;"><div class="m_7671030320009715927at-above-post-homepage m_7671030320009715927addthis_tool" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); font-size: medium;"></div><div class="m_7671030320009715927kcite-section"><p class="" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); font-size: 14.4px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: 18px; letter-spacing: 0px;"><strong class="">Everyone is talking about emissions budgets – what are they and what do they mean for your country?</strong></p><p class="" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); font-size: 14.4px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: 18px; letter-spacing: 0px;">Our CO2 emissions are causing global heating. If we want to stop global warming at a given temperature level, we can emit only a limited amount of CO2. That’s our emissions budget. I explained it here at RealClimate a couple of years ago:</p><blockquote class="m_7671030320009715927wp-block-quote" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); font-size: medium; border-left-width: 5px; border-left-style: solid; border-left-color: rgb(204, 204, 204); margin-left: 1.5em; padding-left: 5px;"><p class="" style="font-stretch: normal; font-size: 14.4px; line-height: 18px; letter-spacing: 0px;">First of all – what the heck is an “emissions budget” for CO2? Behind this concept is the fact that the amount of global warming that is reached before temperatures stabilise depends (to good approximation) on the <em class="">cumulative emissions</em> of CO2, i.e. the grand total that humanity has emitted. That is because any additional amount of CO2 in the atmosphere will remain there for a very long time (to the extent that our emissions this century will <a href="http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v534/n7607_supp/full/nature18452.html" target="_blank" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v534/n7607_supp/full/nature18452.html&source=gmail&ust=1565293851677000&usg=AFQjCNGxHEUsIw9dqCT8CYvjf-q3S82qbw" class="" style="color: rgb(51, 85, 34);">like prevent the next Ice Age</a> due to begin 50 000 years from now). That is quite different from many atmospheric pollutants that we are used to, for example smog. When you put filters on dirty power stations, the smog will disappear. When you do this ten years later, you just have to stand the smog for a further ten years before it goes away. Not so with CO2 and global warming. If you keep emitting CO2 for another ten years, CO2 levels in the atmosphere will increase further for another ten years, and then <em class="">stay higher for centuries to come</em>. Limiting global warming to a given level (like 1.5 °C) will require more and more rapid (and thus costly) emissions reductions with every year of delay, and simply become unattainable at some point.</p></blockquote><p class="" style="font-stretch: normal; line-height: 18px; letter-spacing: 0px;"><span class="" style="font-size: 14.4px;"><span class="" style="background-color: rgb(255, 251, 0);">In her recent speech at the French National Assembly,</span><span class="" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);"> </span></span><span class="" style="background-color: rgb(255, 251, 0); font-size: 14.4px;">Greta Thunberg</span><font size="3" class="" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><b class=""><span class="" style="background-color: rgb(255, 251, 0);"> rightly</span></b> </font><span class="" style="background-color: rgb(255, 251, 0); font-size: 14.4px;">made the emissions budget her central issue. </span></p><p class="" style="font-stretch: normal; line-height: 18px; letter-spacing: 0px;"><a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=J1yimNdqhqE" target="_blank" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.youtube.com/watch?v%3DJ1yimNdqhqE&source=gmail&ust=1565293851677000&usg=AFQjCNHRYV-NfR1F7bRQCJjX5Gc3QM_CxA" class="" style="font-size: 14.4px; letter-spacing: 0px; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); color: rgb(51, 85, 34);">https://www.youtube.com/watch?<wbr class="">v=J1yimNdqhqE</a></p><p class="" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); font-size: 14.4px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: 18px; letter-spacing: 0px;">So let’s look at how the emissions budget concept can be used to guide policy on future emissions trajectories for countries.</p><div class=""><b class="">End of excerpt</b></div></div></div><div class="" style="color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: small; font-variant-ligatures: normal; orphans: 2; widows: 2; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><div class="" style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family: Verdana; font-size: 12px; margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal;"><a href="http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2019/08/how-much-co2-your-country-can-still-emit-in-three-simple-steps/#more-22503" target="_blank" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2019/08/how-much-co2-your-country-can-still-emit-in-three-simple-steps/%23more-22503&source=gmail&ust=1565293851677000&usg=AFQjCNE_ubFeIU_ewNFLYUeKCJXttc_rLQ" class="" style="color: rgb(17, 85, 204);">http://www.realclimate.org/<wbr class="">index.php/archives/2019/08/<wbr class="">how-much-co2-your-country-can-<wbr class="">still-emit-in-three-simple-<wbr class="">steps/#more-22503</a></div></div><div class=""></div><div class="">
<div style="caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family: Verdana; font-size: 12px; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: auto; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: auto; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-size-adjust: auto; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; text-decoration: none; margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal;" class=""><span style="-webkit-font-kerning: none;" class=""><br class="Apple-interchange-newline">*****************************************************</span></div><div style="caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family: Verdana; font-size: 12px; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: auto; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: auto; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-size-adjust: auto; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; text-decoration: none; margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal;" class=""><span style="-webkit-font-kerning: none;" class="">"Forests of the Americas and the Caribbean are undergoing <span style="background-color: rgb(255, 251, 0);" class="">rapid change </span></span><span style="-webkit-font-kerning: none; background-color: rgb(255, 251, 0);" class=""><i class="">as human populations increase </i></span><span style="-webkit-font-kerning: none;" class="">….. 80% of the forest types and 85% of the current forest area is potentially threatened”</span></div><div style="caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family: Verdana; font-size: 12px; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: auto; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: auto; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-size-adjust: auto; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; text-decoration: none; margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; min-height: 15px;" class=""><span style="-webkit-font-kerning: none;" class=""></span><br class=""></div><div style="caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family: Verdana; font-size: 12px; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: auto; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: auto; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-size-adjust: auto; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; text-decoration: none; margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal;" class=""><span style="-webkit-font-kerning: none;" class="">Open access article here: <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/conl.12623" class="">https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/conl.12623</a></span></div>
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