<html><head><meta http-equiv="Content-Type" content="text/html; charset=utf-8"></head><body style="word-wrap: break-word; -webkit-nbsp-mode: space; line-break: after-white-space;" class=""><div dir="auto" style="word-wrap: break-word; -webkit-nbsp-mode: space; line-break: after-white-space;" class=""><div style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; color: rgb(32, 33, 36); -webkit-text-stroke-width: initial; -webkit-text-stroke-color: rgb(32, 33, 36);" class=""><span style="-webkit-font-kerning: none; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);" class=""><a href="https://news.google.com/articles/CBMiamh0dHBzOi8vbmV3cy53aXNjLmVkdS93aXRoLWZpcmUtd2FybWluZy1hbmQtZHJvdWdodC15ZWxsb3dzdG9uZS1mb3Jlc3RzLWNvdWxkLWJlLWdyYXNzbGFuZC1ieS1taWQtY2VudHVyeS_SAQA?hl=en-US&gl=US&ceid=US%3Aen" class="">With fire, warming and drought, Yellowstone forests could be grassland by mid-century<span style="font-kerning: none" class=""></span></a></span></div><div style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; color: rgb(32, 33, 36); -webkit-text-stroke-width: initial; -webkit-text-stroke-color: rgb(32, 33, 36);" class=""><span style="font-kerning: none; background-color: #ffffff" class="">For a study looking at the ability of trees in Yellowstone National Park to recover from fire under climate conditions that are warmer and drier than they have been ...</span></div><div style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; color: rgb(32, 33, 36); -webkit-text-stroke-width: initial; -webkit-text-stroke-color: rgb(32, 33, 36); background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);" class=""><span style="-webkit-font-kerning: none;" class="">University of Wisconsin-Madison</span></div><div style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; color: rgb(32, 33, 36); -webkit-text-stroke-width: initial; -webkit-text-stroke-color: rgb(32, 33, 36); background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);" class=""><span style="-webkit-font-kerning: none;" class=""><br class=""></span></div><div style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; color: rgb(32, 33, 36); -webkit-text-stroke-width: initial; -webkit-text-stroke-color: rgb(32, 33, 36); background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);" class=""><span style="-webkit-font-kerning: none;" class="">Full news report : </span><a href="https://news.wisc.edu/with-fire-warming-and-drought-yellowstone-forests-could-be-grassland-by-mid-century/" class="">https://news.wisc.edu/with-fire-warming-and-drought-yellowstone-forests-could-be-grassland-by-mid-century/</a></div><div style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; color: rgb(32, 33, 36); -webkit-text-stroke-width: initial; -webkit-text-stroke-color: rgb(32, 33, 36); background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);" class=""><span style="-webkit-font-kerning: none;" class=""><br class=""></span></div><div style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; color: rgb(32, 33, 36); -webkit-text-stroke-width: initial; -webkit-text-stroke-color: rgb(32, 33, 36); background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);" class=""><span style="-webkit-font-kerning: none;" class=""><div class="article-citation" style="box-sizing: border-box; color: rgb(28, 29, 30); font-variant-ligatures: normal; orphans: 2; widows: 2;"><div class="citation" style="box-sizing: border-box;"><div class="doi-access-container clearfix" style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 10px 0px;"><span class="primary-heading" style="box-sizing: border-box; vertical-align: middle;"><span class="primary-heading" style="box-sizing: border-box; vertical-align: middle;">Ecological Applications Article</span></span></div><div class="doi-access-container clearfix" style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 10px 0px;"><div class="epub-section" style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: initial; caret-color: rgb(118, 118, 118); color: rgb(118, 118, 118); box-sizing: border-box; opacity: 1; margin: 0px; line-height: 1.15; display: inline-block;"><a class="epub-doi" aria-label="Digital Object Identifier" href="https://doi.org/10.1002/ecm.1340" style="box-sizing: border-box; background-color: transparent; color: rgb(0, 82, 116); text-decoration: none; cursor: pointer; font-weight: 600; overflow-wrap: break-word;">https://doi.org/10.1002/ecm.1340</a></div><span style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: initial; caret-color: rgb(118, 118, 118); color: rgb(118, 118, 118);" class=""> </span> <div class="doi-access-wrapper" style="box-sizing: border-box; font-weight: 600; display: inline-block; margin-left: 9px; padding-left: 9px; border-left-width: 1px; border-left-style: solid; border-left-color: rgb(216, 217, 218); border-right-width: 1px; border-right-style: solid; border-right-color: rgb(216, 217, 218); padding-right: 9px;"><div class="access-type free-access" style="box-sizing: border-box; color: rgb(76, 111, 217); display: inline-block;"><span aria-hidden="true" class="icon-icon-lock_open" style="box-sizing: border-box; speak: none; font-weight: 400; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-position: normal; line-height: 1; -webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; transition: transform 0.5s ease 0s; vertical-align: middle; margin-right: 5px;"></span> </div></div></div><h1 class="citation__title" style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; line-height: 30px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;" class="">Origins of abrupt change? Postfire subalpine conifer regeneration declines nonlinearly with warming and drying</span></h1><div class="loa-wrapper loa-authors hidden-xs" style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 15px 0px;"><div id="sb-1" class="accordion" style="box-sizing: border-box;"><div class="accordion-tabbed" style="box-sizing: border-box; color: rgb(139, 139, 139);"><div class=" accordion__closed accordion-tabbed__tab-mobile" style="box-sizing: border-box; border-top: none; display: inline; position: relative;"><a href="https://esajournals.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/action/doSearch?ContribAuthorStored=Hansen%2C+Winslow+D" class="author-name accordion-tabbed__control" data-id="a1" data-db-target-for="a1" aria-controls="a1" aria-haspopup="true" id="a1_Ctrl" role="button" style="box-sizing: border-box; background-color: transparent; color: rgb(0, 82, 116); text-decoration: none; cursor: pointer; display: inline; width: 100%; padding: 0px; margin-bottom: 4px; line-height: 20px;"><span style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; padding: 0px;" class="">Winslow D. Hansen<span aria-hidden="true" class="icon-mail_outline" style="box-sizing: border-box; speak: none; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-position: normal; line-height: 1; -webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; transition: transform 0.5s ease 0s; margin: 0px 0px 0px 3px; float: none;"></span></span></a> </div> <div class=" accordion__closed accordion-tabbed__tab-mobile" style="box-sizing: border-box; border-top: none; display: inline; position: relative;"><a href="https://esajournals.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/action/doSearch?ContribAuthorStored=Turner%2C+Monica+G" class="author-name accordion-tabbed__control" data-id="a2" data-db-target-for="a2" aria-controls="a2" aria-haspopup="true" id="a2_Ctrl" role="button" style="box-sizing: border-box; background-color: transparent; color: rgb(0, 82, 116); text-decoration: none; cursor: pointer; display: inline; width: 100%; padding: 0px; margin-bottom: 4px; line-height: 20px;"><span style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; padding: 0px;" class="">Monica G. Turner</span></a></div></div></div></div><div class="epub-sections" style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 15px 0px; color: rgb(118, 118, 118);"><div class="epub-section" style="box-sizing: border-box; opacity: 1; margin: 0px; line-height: 1.15; display: inline-block;"><span class="epub-state" style="box-sizing: border-box; color: rgb(139, 139, 139); display: inline-block;">First published: </span><span class="epub-date" style="box-sizing: border-box; color: rgb(28, 29, 30); display: inline-block;">17 January 2019</span></div> </div><div class="epub-sections" style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 15px 0px; color: rgb(118, 118, 118);"><div class="no-truncate article-header__references-container" id="ecm1340-note-1001" tabindex="0" style="box-sizing: border-box;"><a href="https://esajournals.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/ecm.1340#" data-db-target-for="sections" data-db-switch="icon-close_thin" aria-haspopup="true" aria-controls="sections_Pop" role="button" id="sections_Ctrl" class="coolBar__ctrl" style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: initial; 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margin-top: -19px; color: rgb(28, 29, 30); font-variant-ligatures: normal; orphans: 2; widows: 2;"></div><div class=" article__body" style="box-sizing: border-box; color: rgb(28, 29, 30); font-variant-ligatures: normal; orphans: 2; widows: 2;"><article style="box-sizing: border-box; padding-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 20px; margin-top: 15px;" class=""><div class="abstract-group" style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="article-section article-section__abstract" lang="en" data-lang="en" id="section-1-en" style="box-sizing: border-box; border-left-width: 4px; border-left-style: solid; border-left-color: rgb(216, 217, 218); padding: 0px 0px 0px 20px; margin-top: 20px; margin-bottom: 10px;"><h2 id="d11625983" class="article-section__header section__title main abstractlang_en" style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px 0px 15px; font-weight: 400; line-height: 1.2; color: rgb(65, 65, 65); display: inline-block;">Abstract</h2><div class="main en article-section__content" style="box-sizing: border-box; line-height: 1.5; margin: 0px; position: relative;"><p style="box-sizing: border-box; margin-top: 5px; margin-bottom: 16px;" class="">Robust tree regeneration following high‐severity wildfire is key to the resilience of subalpine and boreal forests, and 21st century climate could initiate abrupt change in forests if postfire temperature and soil moisture become less suitable for tree seedling establishment. Using two widespread conifer species, lodgepole pine (<i style="box-sizing: border-box;" class="">Pinus contorta</i> var. <i style="box-sizing: border-box;" class="">latifolia</i>) and Douglas‐fir (<i style="box-sizing: border-box;" class="">Pseudotsuga menziesii</i> var. <i style="box-sizing: border-box;" class="">glauca</i>), we conducted complementary experiments to ask (1) How will projected early‐ to mid‐21st‐century warming and drying affect postfire tree seedling establishment and mortality? (2) How does early seedling growth differ between species and vary with warming and drying? With a four‐year in situ seed‐planting experiment and a one growing season controlled‐environment experiment, we explored effects of climate on tree seedling establishment, growth, and survival and identified nonlinear responses to temperature and soil moisture. In our field experiment, warmer and drier conditions, consistent with mid‐21<span style="box-sizing: border-box; line-height: 0; position: relative; vertical-align: baseline; top: -0.5em;" class="">st</span>‐century projections, led to a 92% and 76% reduction in establishment of lodgepole pine and Douglas‐fir. Within three years, all seedlings that established under warmer conditions died, as might be expected at lower elevations and lower latitudes of species’ ranges. Seedling establishment and mortality also varied with aspect; approximately 1.7 times more seedlings established on mesic vs. xeric aspects, and fewer seedlings died. In the controlled‐environment experiment, soil temperatures were 2.0°–5.5°C cooler than the field experiment, and warming led to increased tree seedling establishment, as might be expected at upper treeline or higher latitudes. Lodgepole pine grew taller than Douglas‐fir and produced more needles with warming. Douglas‐fir grew longer roots relative to shoots, compared with lodgepole pine, particularly in dry soils. Differences in early growth between species may mediate climate change effects on competitive interactions, successional trajectories, and species distributions. This study demonstrates that climate following high‐severity fire exerts strong control over postfire tree regeneration in subalpine conifer forests. Climate change experiments, such as those reported here, hold great potential for identifying mechanisms that could underpin fundamental ecological change in 21st‐century ecosystems.</p></div></section></div><div class="pb-dropzone" data-pb-dropzone="below-abstract-group" style="box-sizing: border-box;"></div><section class="article-section article-section__full" style="box-sizing: border-box;"><div class="article-section__content" id="ecm1340-sec-0001" style="box-sizing: border-box; line-height: 1.5; margin: 0px; position: relative;"><h2 class="article-section__title section1 section__title" id="ecm1340-sec-0001-title" style="box-sizing: border-box; margin-top: 12px; margin-bottom: 12px; line-height: 1.2; color: rgb(0, 161, 133);">Introduction</h2><p style="box-sizing: border-box; margin-top: 5px; margin-bottom: 16px; line-height: 24px;" class="">The resilience of forests may erode with warming and increased natural disturbance during this century, which could cause them to change fundamentally (Gauthier et al. <span title="" style="box-sizing: border-box;" class=""><a href="https://esajournals.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/ecm.1340#ecm1340-bib-0034" class="bibLink tab-link" id="ecm1340-bib-0034R" data-tab="pane-pcw-references" style="box-sizing: border-box; background-color: transparent; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); cursor: pointer; display: inline; word-break: break-word; font-weight: 600;">2015</a></span>, Ghazoul et al. <span title="" style="box-sizing: border-box;" class=""><a href="https://esajournals.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/ecm.1340#ecm1340-bib-0036" class="bibLink tab-link" id="ecm1340-bib-0036R" data-tab="pane-pcw-references" style="box-sizing: border-box; background-color: transparent; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); cursor: pointer; display: inline; word-break: break-word; font-weight: 600;">2015</a></span>, Reyer et al. <span title="" style="box-sizing: border-box;" class=""><a href="https://esajournals.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/ecm.1340#ecm1340-bib-0090" class="bibLink tab-link" id="ecm1340-bib-0090R" data-tab="pane-pcw-references" style="box-sizing: border-box; background-color: transparent; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); cursor: pointer; display: inline; word-break: break-word; font-weight: 600;">2015</a></span>, Trumbore et al. <span title="" style="box-sizing: border-box;" class=""><a href="https://esajournals.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/ecm.1340#ecm1340-bib-0112" class="bibLink tab-link" id="ecm1340-bib-0112R" data-tab="pane-pcw-references" style="box-sizing: border-box; background-color: transparent; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); cursor: pointer; display: inline; word-break: break-word; font-weight: 600;">2015</a></span>, Johnstone et al. <span title="" style="box-sizing: border-box;" class=""><a href="https://esajournals.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/ecm.1340#ecm1340-bib-0055" class="bibLink tab-link" id="ecm1340-bib-0055R" data-tab="pane-pcw-references" style="box-sizing: border-box; background-color: transparent; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); cursor: pointer; display: inline; word-break: break-word; font-weight: 600;">2016</a></span>, Ghazoul and Chazdon <span title="" style="box-sizing: border-box;" class=""><a href="https://esajournals.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/ecm.1340#ecm1340-bib-0035" class="bibLink tab-link" id="ecm1340-bib-0035R" data-tab="pane-pcw-references" style="box-sizing: border-box; background-color: transparent; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); cursor: pointer; display: inline; word-break: break-word; font-weight: 600;">2017</a></span>). Resilience is the capacity of a system to absorb disturbances while retaining function, structure, feedbacks, and thus, identity (Walker et al. <span title="" style="box-sizing: border-box;" class=""><a href="https://esajournals.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/ecm.1340#ecm1340-bib-0124" class="bibLink tab-link" id="ecm1340-bib-0124R" data-tab="pane-pcw-references" style="box-sizing: border-box; background-color: transparent; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); cursor: pointer; display: inline; word-break: break-word; font-weight: 600;">2006</a></span>), and if resilience is lost, transitions to alternate states can occur (e.g., conversion from forest to non‐forest; Scheffer <span title="" style="box-sizing: border-box;" class=""><a href="https://esajournals.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/ecm.1340#ecm1340-bib-0098" class="bibLink tab-link" id="ecm1340-bib-0098R" data-tab="pane-pcw-references" style="box-sizing: border-box; background-color: transparent; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); cursor: pointer; display: inline; word-break: break-word; font-weight: 600;">2009</a></span>, Ratajczak et al. <span title="" style="box-sizing: border-box;" class=""><a href="https://esajournals.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/ecm.1340#ecm1340-bib-0087" class="bibLink tab-link" id="ecm1340-bib-0087R" data-tab="pane-pcw-references" style="box-sizing: border-box; background-color: transparent; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); cursor: pointer; display: inline; word-break: break-word; font-weight: 600;">2018</a></span>). </p><p style="box-sizing: border-box; margin-top: 5px; margin-bottom: 16px; line-height: 24px;" class="">There is tremendous interest in determining how and why regional forests may change because of the consequences for carbon storage (Bonan <span title="" style="box-sizing: border-box;" class=""><a href="https://esajournals.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/ecm.1340#ecm1340-bib-0007" class="bibLink tab-link" id="ecm1340-bib-0007R" data-tab="pane-pcw-references" style="box-sizing: border-box; background-color: transparent; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); cursor: pointer; display: inline; word-break: break-word; font-weight: 600;">2008</a></span>, Seidl et al. <span title="" style="box-sizing: border-box;" class=""><a href="https://esajournals.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/ecm.1340#ecm1340-bib-0100" class="bibLink tab-link" id="ecm1340-bib-0100R" data-tab="pane-pcw-references" style="box-sizing: border-box; background-color: transparent; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); cursor: pointer; display: inline; word-break: break-word; font-weight: 600;">2014</a></span>), climate regulation (Thom et al. <span title="" style="box-sizing: border-box;" class=""><a href="https://esajournals.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/ecm.1340#ecm1340-bib-0106" class="bibLink tab-link" id="ecm1340-bib-0106R" data-tab="pane-pcw-references" style="box-sizing: border-box; background-color: transparent; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); cursor: pointer; display: inline; word-break: break-word; font-weight: 600;">2017a</a></span>), biodiversity (Thom et al. <span title="" style="box-sizing: border-box;" class=""><a href="https://esajournals.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/ecm.1340#ecm1340-bib-0107" class="bibLink tab-link" id="ecm1340-bib-0107R" data-tab="pane-pcw-references" style="box-sizing: border-box; background-color: transparent; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); cursor: pointer; display: inline; word-break: break-word; font-weight: 600;">2017b</a></span>), and provision of ecosystem services (Turner et al. <span title="" style="box-sizing: border-box;" class=""><a href="https://esajournals.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/ecm.1340#ecm1340-bib-0116" class="bibLink tab-link" id="ecm1340-bib-0116R" data-tab="pane-pcw-references" style="box-sizing: border-box; background-color: transparent; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); cursor: pointer; display: inline; word-break: break-word; font-weight: 600;">2013</a></span>, Seidl et al. <span title="" style="box-sizing: border-box;" class=""><a href="https://esajournals.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/ecm.1340#ecm1340-bib-0101" class="bibLink tab-link" id="ecm1340-bib-0101R" data-tab="pane-pcw-references" style="box-sizing: border-box; background-color: transparent; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); cursor: pointer; display: inline; word-break: break-word; font-weight: 600;">2016</a></span>). However, changes in regional forests will likely emerge from aggregate effects of drivers acting on local processes, such as reproduction, seedling establishment, tree growth, and mortality (Allen and Starr <span title="" style="box-sizing: border-box;" class=""><a href="https://esajournals.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/ecm.1340#ecm1340-bib-0002" class="bibLink tab-link" id="ecm1340-bib-0002R" data-tab="pane-pcw-references" style="box-sizing: border-box; background-color: transparent; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); cursor: pointer; display: inline; word-break: break-word; font-weight: 600;">1982</a></span>, Filotas et al. <span title="" style="box-sizing: border-box;" class=""><a href="https://esajournals.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/ecm.1340#ecm1340-bib-0032" class="bibLink tab-link" id="ecm1340-bib-0032R" data-tab="pane-pcw-references" style="box-sizing: border-box; background-color: transparent; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); cursor: pointer; display: inline; word-break: break-word; font-weight: 600;">2014</a></span>, Messier et al. <span title="" style="box-sizing: border-box;" class=""><a href="https://esajournals.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/ecm.1340#ecm1340-bib-0073" class="bibLink tab-link" id="ecm1340-bib-0073R" data-tab="pane-pcw-references" style="box-sizing: border-box; background-color: transparent; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); cursor: pointer; display: inline; word-break: break-word; font-weight: 600;">2015</a></span>, Rose et al. <span title="" style="box-sizing: border-box;" class=""><a href="https://esajournals.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/ecm.1340#ecm1340-bib-0095" class="bibLink tab-link" id="ecm1340-bib-0095R" data-tab="pane-pcw-references" style="box-sizing: border-box; background-color: transparent; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); cursor: pointer; display: inline; word-break: break-word; font-weight: 600;">2017</a></span>). For example, early tree regeneration is critical to ensure forest resilience following large high‐severity (stand‐replacing) disturbances. Thus, research identifying and characterizing mechanisms that could initiate transitions in forests to alternate states with changing climate and disturbance is essential.</p><p style="box-sizing: border-box; margin-top: 5px; margin-bottom: 16px; line-height: 24px;" class="">Following a high‐severity disturbance, transition to an alternate state first requires an origin mechanism, or an ecosystem process capable of producing fundamental change in a system when it is acted upon by a forcing driver (e.g., climate; Petraities and Latham <span title="" style="box-sizing: border-box;" class=""><a href="https://esajournals.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/ecm.1340#ecm1340-bib-0082" class="bibLink tab-link" id="ecm1340-bib-0082R" data-tab="pane-pcw-references" style="box-sizing: border-box; background-color: transparent; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); cursor: pointer; display: inline; word-break: break-word; font-weight: 600;">1999</a></span>, Jackson <span title="" style="box-sizing: border-box;" class=""><a href="https://esajournals.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/ecm.1340#ecm1340-bib-0050" class="bibLink tab-link" id="ecm1340-bib-0050R" data-tab="pane-pcw-references" style="box-sizing: border-box; background-color: transparent; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); cursor: pointer; display: inline; word-break: break-word; font-weight: 600;">2006</a></span>). Once the origin mechanism has initiated transition to the alternate state, positive feedbacks must stabilize it (Connell and Slatyer <span title="" style="box-sizing: border-box;" class=""><a href="https://esajournals.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/ecm.1340#ecm1340-bib-0015" class="bibLink tab-link" id="ecm1340-bib-0015R" data-tab="pane-pcw-references" style="box-sizing: border-box; background-color: transparent; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); cursor: pointer; display: inline; word-break: break-word; font-weight: 600;">1976</a></span>, Connell and Sousa <span title="" style="box-sizing: border-box;" class=""><a href="https://esajournals.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/ecm.1340#ecm1340-bib-0016" class="bibLink tab-link" id="ecm1340-bib-0016R" data-tab="pane-pcw-references" style="box-sizing: border-box; background-color: transparent; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); cursor: pointer; display: inline; word-break: break-word; font-weight: 600;">1983</a></span>). Identifying origin mechanisms is critical, as positive feedbacks are irrelevant if transitions are not initiated. State changes in forests are often difficult to identify because mature trees are long lived and tolerate a wide range of environmental conditions (Lloret et al. <span title="" style="box-sizing: border-box;" class=""><a href="https://esajournals.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/ecm.1340#ecm1340-bib-0068" class="bibLink tab-link" id="ecm1340-bib-0068R" data-tab="pane-pcw-references" style="box-sizing: border-box; background-color: transparent; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); cursor: pointer; display: inline; word-break: break-word; font-weight: 600;">2012</a></span>). However, large severe disturbances can catalyze rapid reorganization (Crausbay et al. <span title="" style="box-sizing: border-box;" class=""><a href="https://esajournals.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/ecm.1340#ecm1340-bib-0018" class="bibLink tab-link" id="ecm1340-bib-0018R" data-tab="pane-pcw-references" style="box-sizing: border-box; background-color: transparent; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); cursor: pointer; display: inline; word-break: break-word; font-weight: 600;">2017</a></span>, Hansen et al. <span title="" style="box-sizing: border-box;" class=""><a href="https://esajournals.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/ecm.1340#ecm1340-bib-0042" class="bibLink tab-link" id="ecm1340-bib-0042R" data-tab="pane-pcw-references" style="box-sizing: border-box; background-color: transparent; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); cursor: pointer; display: inline; word-break: break-word; font-weight: 600;">2018</a></span>). In the Alaskan boreal forest, for example, increased severity of large stand‐replacing fires (i.e., where all trees are killed) has caused regional transitions in postfire tree species composition from spruce to deciduous dominance (Johnstone et al. <span title="" style="box-sizing: border-box;" class=""><a href="https://esajournals.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/ecm.1340#ecm1340-bib-0054" class="bibLink tab-link" id="ecm1340-bib-0054R" data-tab="pane-pcw-references" style="box-sizing: border-box; background-color: transparent; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); cursor: pointer; display: inline; word-break: break-word; font-weight: 600;">2010</a></span>, Mann et al. <span title="" style="box-sizing: border-box;" class=""><a href="https://esajournals.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/ecm.1340#ecm1340-bib-0071" class="bibLink tab-link" id="ecm1340-bib-0071R" data-tab="pane-pcw-references" style="box-sizing: border-box; background-color: transparent; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); cursor: pointer; display: inline; word-break: break-word; font-weight: 600;">2012</a></span>).</p><p style="box-sizing: border-box; margin-top: 5px; margin-bottom: 16px; line-height: 24px;" class="">The mechanisms underpinning tree seedling establishment following large severe wildfires are especially important in subalpine and boreal conifer forests of western North America. These systems are characterized by infrequent high‐severity fires (Turner and Romme <span title="" style="box-sizing: border-box;" class=""><a href="https://esajournals.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/ecm.1340#ecm1340-bib-0135" class="bibLink tab-link" id="ecm1340-bib-0135R" data-tab="pane-pcw-references" style="box-sizing: border-box; background-color: transparent; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); cursor: pointer; display: inline; word-break: break-word; font-weight: 600;">1994</a></span>) and are dominated by conifers, which must re‐establish from seed. Early postfire tree seedling establishment shapes stand structure and species composition for decades (Turner et al. <span title="" style="box-sizing: border-box;" class=""><a href="https://esajournals.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/ecm.1340#ecm1340-bib-0114" class="bibLink tab-link" id="ecm1340-bib-0114R" data-tab="pane-pcw-references" style="box-sizing: border-box; background-color: transparent; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); cursor: pointer; display: inline; word-break: break-word; font-weight: 600;">1997</a></span>, <span title="" style="box-sizing: border-box;" class=""><a href="https://esajournals.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/ecm.1340#ecm1340-bib-0115" class="bibLink tab-link" id="ecm1340-bib-0115R" data-tab="pane-pcw-references" style="box-sizing: border-box; background-color: transparent; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); cursor: pointer; display: inline; word-break: break-word; font-weight: 600;">2004</a></span>, Kashian et al. <span title="" style="box-sizing: border-box;" class=""><a href="https://esajournals.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/ecm.1340#ecm1340-bib-0056" class="bibLink tab-link" id="ecm1340-bib-0056R" data-tab="pane-pcw-references" style="box-sizing: border-box; background-color: transparent; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); cursor: pointer; display: inline; word-break: break-word; font-weight: 600;">2005</a></span>), making seedling establishment a critical determinant of postfire resilience (Donato et al. <span title="" style="box-sizing: border-box;" class=""><a href="https://esajournals.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/ecm.1340#ecm1340-bib-0025" class="bibLink tab-link" id="ecm1340-bib-0025R" data-tab="pane-pcw-references" style="box-sizing: border-box; background-color: transparent; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); cursor: pointer; display: inline; word-break: break-word; font-weight: 600;">2016</a></span>, Hansen et al. <span title="" style="box-sizing: border-box;" class=""><a href="https://esajournals.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/ecm.1340#ecm1340-bib-0042" class="bibLink tab-link" id="ecm1340-bib-0042R" data-tab="pane-pcw-references" style="box-sizing: border-box; background-color: transparent; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); cursor: pointer; display: inline; word-break: break-word; font-weight: 600;">2018</a></span>). Historically, subalpine forests followed an adaptive cycle (sensu Gunderson and Holling <span title="" style="box-sizing: border-box;" class=""><a href="https://esajournals.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/ecm.1340#ecm1340-bib-0039" class="bibLink tab-link" id="ecm1340-bib-0039R" data-tab="pane-pcw-references" style="box-sizing: border-box; background-color: transparent; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); cursor: pointer; display: inline; word-break: break-word; font-weight: 600;">2003</a></span>) where forests burned, creating favorable conditions for seedling establishment, and succession led back to structurally and functionally similar mature forest (Romme <span title="" style="box-sizing: border-box;" class=""><a href="https://esajournals.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/ecm.1340#ecm1340-bib-0093" class="bibLink tab-link" id="ecm1340-bib-0093R" data-tab="pane-pcw-references" style="box-sizing: border-box; background-color: transparent; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); cursor: pointer; display: inline; word-break: break-word; font-weight: 600;">1982</a></span>, Turner et al. <span title="" style="box-sizing: border-box;" class=""><a href="https://esajournals.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/ecm.1340#ecm1340-bib-0113" class="bibLink tab-link" id="ecm1340-bib-0113R" data-tab="pane-pcw-references" style="box-sizing: border-box; background-color: transparent; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); cursor: pointer; display: inline; word-break: break-word; font-weight: 600;">1994</a></span>, Holling <span title="" style="box-sizing: border-box;" class=""><a href="https://esajournals.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/ecm.1340#ecm1340-bib-0045" class="bibLink tab-link" id="ecm1340-bib-0045R" data-tab="pane-pcw-references" style="box-sizing: border-box; background-color: transparent; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); cursor: pointer; display: inline; word-break: break-word; font-weight: 600;">2001</a></span>, Johnstone et al. <span title="" style="box-sizing: border-box;" class=""><a href="https://esajournals.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/ecm.1340#ecm1340-bib-0053" class="bibLink tab-link" id="ecm1340-bib-0053R" data-tab="pane-pcw-references" style="box-sizing: border-box; background-color: transparent; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); cursor: pointer; display: inline; word-break: break-word; font-weight: 600;">2004</a></span>, Allen et al. <span title="" style="box-sizing: border-box;" class=""><a href="https://esajournals.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/ecm.1340#ecm1340-bib-0003" class="bibLink tab-link" id="ecm1340-bib-0003R" data-tab="pane-pcw-references" style="box-sizing: border-box; background-color: transparent; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); cursor: pointer; display: inline; word-break: break-word; font-weight: 600;">2014</a></span>; Fig. <a href="https://esajournals.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/ecm.1340#ecm1340-fig-0001" style="box-sizing: border-box; background-color: transparent; color: rgb(0, 82, 116); cursor: pointer; display: inline; word-break: break-word; font-weight: 600;" class="">1</a>A). However, tree seedlings are very sensitive to temperature and soil moisture (Lotan <span title="" style="box-sizing: border-box;" class=""><a href="https://esajournals.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/ecm.1340#ecm1340-bib-0070" class="bibLink tab-link" id="ecm1340-bib-0070R" data-tab="pane-pcw-references" style="box-sizing: border-box; background-color: transparent; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); cursor: pointer; display: inline; word-break: break-word; font-weight: 600;">1964</a></span>, Cochran and Berntsen <span title="" style="box-sizing: border-box;" class=""><a href="https://esajournals.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/ecm.1340#ecm1340-bib-0013" class="bibLink tab-link" id="ecm1340-bib-0013R" data-tab="pane-pcw-references" style="box-sizing: border-box; background-color: transparent; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); cursor: pointer; display: inline; word-break: break-word; font-weight: 600;">1973</a></span>, Rochefort et al. <span title="" style="box-sizing: border-box;" class=""><a href="https://esajournals.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/ecm.1340#ecm1340-bib-0092" class="bibLink tab-link" id="ecm1340-bib-0092R" data-tab="pane-pcw-references" style="box-sizing: border-box; background-color: transparent; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); cursor: pointer; display: inline; word-break: break-word; font-weight: 600;">1994</a></span>, Walck et al. <span title="" style="box-sizing: border-box;" class=""><a href="https://esajournals.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/ecm.1340#ecm1340-bib-0123" class="bibLink tab-link" id="ecm1340-bib-0123R" data-tab="pane-pcw-references" style="box-sizing: border-box; background-color: transparent; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); cursor: pointer; display: inline; word-break: break-word; font-weight: 600;">2011</a></span>, Kueppers et al. <span title="" style="box-sizing: border-box;" class=""><a href="https://esajournals.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/ecm.1340#ecm1340-bib-0061" class="bibLink tab-link" id="ecm1340-bib-0061R" data-tab="pane-pcw-references" style="box-sizing: border-box; background-color: transparent; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); cursor: pointer; display: inline; word-break: break-word; font-weight: 600;">2017</a></span>) and warmer and drier conditions following fires could initiate abrupt change in subalpine forests as conditions become less suitable for tree regeneration (Johnstone et al. <span title="" style="box-sizing: border-box;" class=""><a href="https://esajournals.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/ecm.1340#ecm1340-bib-0054" class="bibLink tab-link" id="ecm1340-bib-0054R" data-tab="pane-pcw-references" style="box-sizing: border-box; background-color: transparent; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); cursor: pointer; display: inline; word-break: break-word; font-weight: 600;">2010</a></span>, Landhäusser et al. <span title="" style="box-sizing: border-box;" class=""><a href="https://esajournals.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/ecm.1340#ecm1340-bib-0063" class="bibLink tab-link" id="ecm1340-bib-0063R" data-tab="pane-pcw-references" style="box-sizing: border-box; background-color: transparent; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); cursor: pointer; display: inline; word-break: break-word; font-weight: 600;">2010</a></span>, Harvey et al. <span title="" style="box-sizing: border-box;" class=""><a href="https://esajournals.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/ecm.1340#ecm1340-bib-0043" class="bibLink tab-link" id="ecm1340-bib-0043R" data-tab="pane-pcw-references" style="box-sizing: border-box; background-color: transparent; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); cursor: pointer; display: inline; word-break: break-word; font-weight: 600;">2016</a></span>, Martínez‐Vilalta and Lloret <span title="" style="box-sizing: border-box;" class=""><a href="https://esajournals.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/ecm.1340#ecm1340-bib-0072" class="bibLink tab-link" id="ecm1340-bib-0072R" data-tab="pane-pcw-references" style="box-sizing: border-box; background-color: transparent; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); cursor: pointer; display: inline; word-break: break-word; font-weight: 600;">2016</a></span>, Liang et al. <span title="" style="box-sizing: border-box;" class=""><a href="https://esajournals.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/ecm.1340#ecm1340-bib-0066" class="bibLink tab-link" id="ecm1340-bib-0066R" data-tab="pane-pcw-references" style="box-sizing: border-box; background-color: transparent; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); cursor: pointer; display: inline; word-break: break-word; font-weight: 600;">2017</a></span>; Fig. <a href="https://esajournals.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/ecm.1340#ecm1340-fig-0001" style="box-sizing: border-box; background-color: transparent; color: rgb(0, 82, 116); cursor: pointer; display: inline; word-break: break-word; font-weight: 600;" class="">1</a>B,C).</p><section class="article-section__inline-figure" style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; justify-content: center; padding: 10px 40px 0px;"><figure class="figure" id="ecm1340-fig-0001" style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; width: 610px; float: right;"><a target="_blank" href="https://wol-prod-cdn.literatumonline.com/cms/attachment/08cb9b1f-eb76-4fa1-afcc-00e571fa1a04/ecm1340-fig-0001-m.jpg" style="box-sizing: border-box; background-color: transparent; color: rgb(0, 82, 116); text-decoration: none; cursor: pointer; display: block; word-break: break-word;" class=""><picture style="box-sizing: border-box;" class=""><source srcset="https://wol-prod-cdn.literatumonline.com/cms/attachment/08cb9b1f-eb76-4fa1-afcc-00e571fa1a04/ecm1340-fig-0001-m.jpg" media="(min-width: 1650px)" style="box-sizing: border-box;" class=""><img class="figure__image" src="https://wol-prod-cdn.literatumonline.com/cms/attachment/4a61447a-97e0-4e8a-b6e5-8f16d35e94b6/ecm1340-fig-0001-m.png" data-lg-src="https://wol-prod-cdn.literatumonline.com/cms/attachment/08cb9b1f-eb76-4fa1-afcc-00e571fa1a04/ecm1340-fig-0001-m.jpg" alt="image" title="image" style="box-sizing: border-box; border: 1px solid rgb(189, 187, 183); max-width: 100%; margin-bottom: 5px; cursor: pointer; display: block; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; padding: 12px;"></picture></a><figcaption class="figure__caption" style="box-sizing: border-box; cursor: default; margin-bottom: 28px; line-height: 26px;"><div class="figure__caption__header" style="box-sizing: border-box; display: flex;"><span class="figure-title" style="box-sizing: border-box; display: block; color: rgb(33, 33, 33); margin-bottom: 0.5rem; flex: 1 1 0%;">Figure 1</span><div class="figure-extra" style="box-sizing: border-box;"><a href="https://esajournals.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/ecm.1340#" class="open-figure-link" style="box-sizing: border-box; background-color: transparent; color: rgb(0, 82, 116); text-decoration: none; cursor: pointer; display: inline; font-weight: 600; border-right-width: 1px; border-right-style: solid; border-right-color: rgb(117, 116, 114); padding-right: 10px; margin-right: 10px; word-break: break-word;">Open in figure viewer</a><a href="https://esajournals.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/action/downloadFigures?id=ecm1340-fig-0001&doi=10.1002%2Fecm.1340" class="ppt-figure-link" style="box-sizing: border-box; background-color: transparent; color: rgb(0, 82, 116); text-decoration: none; cursor: pointer; display: inline; font-weight: 600; border-right-style: none; padding-right: 0px; margin-right: 0px; word-break: break-word;">PowerPoint</a></div></div><div style="box-sizing: border-box;" class="">(A) Subalpine forests of western North America generally move through four phases of the adaptive cycle (Gunderson and Holling <span class="figureLink bibLink tab-link" title="" style="box-sizing: border-box; color: rgb(0, 0, 0);"><a href="https://esajournals.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/ecm.1340#ecm1340-bib-0039" class="bibLink tab-link" id="ecm1340-bib-0039R" data-tab="pane-pcw-references" style="box-sizing: border-box; background-color: transparent; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); text-decoration: none; cursor: pointer; display: inline; word-break: break-word;">2003</a></span>): release (occurrence of severe wildfire), reorganization (initiation of successional trajectory), exploitation (succession back to mature forest), and conservation (mature forest). (B) During the reorganization phase, tree seedlings are sensitive to temperature and soil moisture and warming, drying conditions could initiate regeneration failure, causing transitions to alternate states (pictured, experimental pots of soil in which drought treatments have been implemented). (C) However, warming can also release seedlings from cold temperature limitation and enhance establishment (pictured, tree seedlings experiencing experimental warming). (D) If seedlings establish, interspecific variation in seedling growth may determine which individuals survive and thrive under warming and drying conditions (pictured, lodgepole pine seedling).</div></figcaption></figure></section><p style="box-sizing: border-box; margin-top: 5px; margin-bottom: 16px; line-height: 24px;" class="">If tree seedlings establish, interspecific variation in early growth can determine which individuals survive and thrive (Richter et al. <span title="" style="box-sizing: border-box;" class=""><a href="https://esajournals.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/ecm.1340#ecm1340-bib-0091" class="bibLink tab-link" id="ecm1340-bib-0091R" data-tab="pane-pcw-references" style="box-sizing: border-box; background-color: transparent; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); cursor: pointer; display: inline; word-break: break-word; font-weight: 600;">2012</a></span>; Fig. <a href="https://esajournals.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/ecm.1340#ecm1340-fig-0001" style="box-sizing: border-box; background-color: transparent; color: rgb(0, 82, 116); cursor: pointer; display: inline; word-break: break-word; font-weight: 600;" class="">1</a>D). Differences in growth patterns among species are often consistent with broader life history strategies and generally involve tradeoffs (e.g., prioritizing belowground growth over aboveground growth) that may confer advantage to some environmental conditions, while disadvantaging seedlings in other conditions (Eskelinen and Harrison <span title="" style="box-sizing: border-box;" class=""><a href="https://esajournals.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/ecm.1340#ecm1340-bib-0029" class="bibLink tab-link" id="ecm1340-bib-0029R" data-tab="pane-pcw-references" style="box-sizing: border-box; background-color: transparent; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); cursor: pointer; display: inline; word-break: break-word; font-weight: 600;">2015</a></span>). These differences will likely mediate climate change effects on competitive interactions (Kunstler et al. <span title="" style="box-sizing: border-box;" class=""><a href="https://esajournals.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/ecm.1340#ecm1340-bib-0062" class="bibLink tab-link" id="ecm1340-bib-0062R" data-tab="pane-pcw-references" style="box-sizing: border-box; background-color: transparent; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); cursor: pointer; display: inline; word-break: break-word; font-weight: 600;">2016</a></span>), successional trajectories, and tree species distributions (Salguero‐Gómez et al. <span title="" style="box-sizing: border-box;" class=""><a href="https://esajournals.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/ecm.1340#ecm1340-bib-0096" class="bibLink tab-link" id="ecm1340-bib-0096R" data-tab="pane-pcw-references" style="box-sizing: border-box; background-color: transparent; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); cursor: pointer; display: inline; word-break: break-word; font-weight: 600;">2016</a></span>).</p><p style="box-sizing: border-box; margin-top: 5px; margin-bottom: 16px; line-height: 24px;" class="">Experiments are a valuable tool for understanding how postfire tree regeneration may respond to climate change because they are designed to reveal mechanisms and attribute causation (Carpenter <span title="" style="box-sizing: border-box;" class=""><a href="https://esajournals.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/ecm.1340#ecm1340-bib-0010" class="bibLink tab-link" id="ecm1340-bib-0010R" data-tab="pane-pcw-references" style="box-sizing: border-box; background-color: transparent; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); cursor: pointer; display: inline; word-break: break-word; font-weight: 600;">1998</a></span>, Jentsch et al. <span title="" style="box-sizing: border-box;" class=""><a href="https://esajournals.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/ecm.1340#ecm1340-bib-0051" class="bibLink tab-link" id="ecm1340-bib-0051R" data-tab="pane-pcw-references" style="box-sizing: border-box; background-color: transparent; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); cursor: pointer; display: inline; word-break: break-word; font-weight: 600;">2007</a></span>, Thompson et al. <span title="" style="box-sizing: border-box;" class=""><a href="https://esajournals.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/ecm.1340#ecm1340-bib-0109" class="bibLink tab-link" id="ecm1340-bib-0109R" data-tab="pane-pcw-references" style="box-sizing: border-box; background-color: transparent; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); cursor: pointer; display: inline; word-break: break-word; font-weight: 600;">2014</a></span>, Nooten and Hughes <span title="" style="box-sizing: border-box;" class=""><a href="https://esajournals.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/ecm.1340#ecm1340-bib-0080" class="bibLink tab-link" id="ecm1340-bib-0080R" data-tab="pane-pcw-references" style="box-sizing: border-box; background-color: transparent; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); cursor: pointer; display: inline; word-break: break-word; font-weight: 600;">2017</a></span>). Experiments are also useful for finding thresholds where incremental changes in environmental drivers cause nonlinear system responses (Groffman et al. <span title="" style="box-sizing: border-box;" class=""><a href="https://esajournals.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/ecm.1340#ecm1340-bib-0038" class="bibLink tab-link" id="ecm1340-bib-0038R" data-tab="pane-pcw-references" style="box-sizing: border-box; background-color: transparent; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); cursor: pointer; display: inline; word-break: break-word; font-weight: 600;">2006</a></span>, Kreyling et al. <span title="" style="box-sizing: border-box;" class=""><a href="https://esajournals.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/ecm.1340#ecm1340-bib-0059" class="bibLink tab-link" id="ecm1340-bib-0059R" data-tab="pane-pcw-references" style="box-sizing: border-box; background-color: transparent; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); cursor: pointer; display: inline; word-break: break-word; font-weight: 600;">2013</a></span>). However, designing climate change experiments can be challenging because multiple climate variables are projected to change simultaneously, making them difficult to untangle (Kreyling and Beier <span title="" style="box-sizing: border-box;" class=""><a href="https://esajournals.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/ecm.1340#ecm1340-bib-0058" class="bibLink tab-link" id="ecm1340-bib-0058R" data-tab="pane-pcw-references" style="box-sizing: border-box; background-color: transparent; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); cursor: pointer; display: inline; word-break: break-word; font-weight: 600;">2013</a></span>, De Boeck et al. <span title="" style="box-sizing: border-box;" class=""><a href="https://esajournals.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/ecm.1340#ecm1340-bib-0023" class="bibLink tab-link" id="ecm1340-bib-0023R" data-tab="pane-pcw-references" style="box-sizing: border-box; background-color: transparent; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); cursor: pointer; display: inline; word-break: break-word; font-weight: 600;">2015</a></span>). Further, there are inherent tradeoffs in experimental design between treatment realism and controlling for confounding abiotic and biotic factors. Finally, climate change effects can take years to manifest (Tilman <span title="" style="box-sizing: border-box;" class=""><a href="https://esajournals.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/ecm.1340#ecm1340-bib-0110" class="bibLink tab-link" id="ecm1340-bib-0110R" data-tab="pane-pcw-references" style="box-sizing: border-box; background-color: transparent; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); cursor: pointer; display: inline; word-break: break-word; font-weight: 600;">1989</a></span>) and can play out over large spatial domains (Petraities and Latham <span title="" style="box-sizing: border-box;" class=""><a href="https://esajournals.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/ecm.1340#ecm1340-bib-0082" class="bibLink tab-link" id="ecm1340-bib-0082R" data-tab="pane-pcw-references" style="box-sizing: border-box; background-color: transparent; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); cursor: pointer; display: inline; word-break: break-word; font-weight: 600;">1999</a></span>). Here, we present two seed planting experiments that were designed with these challenges in mind. The experiments encompass both in situ and controlled conditions and explore the multi‐year effects of projected 21st‐century warming and drying on postfire regeneration of two widespread conifers, lodgepole pine (<i style="box-sizing: border-box;" class="">Pinus contorta</i> var<i style="box-sizing: border-box;" class="">. latifolia</i>) and Douglas‐fir (<i style="box-sizing: border-box;" class="">Pseudotsuga menziesii</i> var. <i style="box-sizing: border-box;" class="">glauca</i>) in Yellowstone National Park (Wyoming, USA).</p><p style="box-sizing: border-box; margin-top: 5px; margin-bottom: 16px; line-height: 24px;" class="">Yellowstone National Park is primarily an extensive central subalpine plateau, where lodgepole pine forests have experienced large stand‐replacing fires every 100 to 300 yr during the Holocene (Romme <span title="" style="box-sizing: border-box;" class=""><a href="https://esajournals.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/ecm.1340#ecm1340-bib-0093" class="bibLink tab-link" id="ecm1340-bib-0093R" data-tab="pane-pcw-references" style="box-sizing: border-box; background-color: transparent; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); cursor: pointer; display: inline; word-break: break-word; font-weight: 600;">1982</a></span>, Millspaugh et al. <span title="" style="box-sizing: border-box;" class=""><a href="https://esajournals.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/ecm.1340#ecm1340-bib-0074" class="bibLink tab-link" id="ecm1340-bib-0074R" data-tab="pane-pcw-references" style="box-sizing: border-box; background-color: transparent; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); cursor: pointer; display: inline; word-break: break-word; font-weight: 600;">2000</a></span>, Power et al. <span title="" style="box-sizing: border-box;" class=""><a href="https://esajournals.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/ecm.1340#ecm1340-bib-0085" class="bibLink tab-link" id="ecm1340-bib-0085R" data-tab="pane-pcw-references" style="box-sizing: border-box; background-color: transparent; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); cursor: pointer; display: inline; word-break: break-word; font-weight: 600;">2011</a></span>). Historically, dense carpets of lodgepole pine seedlings established soon after fires and trees grew rapidly during early succession (Turner et al. <span title="" style="box-sizing: border-box;" class=""><a href="https://esajournals.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/ecm.1340#ecm1340-bib-0115" class="bibLink tab-link" id="ecm1340-bib-0115R" data-tab="pane-pcw-references" style="box-sizing: border-box; background-color: transparent; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); cursor: pointer; display: inline; word-break: break-word; font-weight: 600;">2004</a></span>, <span title="" style="box-sizing: border-box;" class=""><a href="https://esajournals.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/ecm.1340#ecm1340-bib-0117" class="bibLink tab-link" id="ecm1340-bib-0117R" data-tab="pane-pcw-references" style="box-sizing: border-box; background-color: transparent; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); cursor: pointer; display: inline; word-break: break-word; font-weight: 600;">2016</a></span>). Lower montane forests of Yellowstone are composed of drought‐tolerant Douglas‐fir trees, which regenerate more slowly after fire (Donato et al. <span title="" style="box-sizing: border-box;" class=""><a href="https://esajournals.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/ecm.1340#ecm1340-bib-0025" class="bibLink tab-link" id="ecm1340-bib-0025R" data-tab="pane-pcw-references" style="box-sizing: border-box; background-color: transparent; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); cursor: pointer; display: inline; word-break: break-word; font-weight: 600;">2016</a></span>), trading rapid aboveground growth for investment in deep root systems (Burns and Honkala <span title="" style="box-sizing: border-box;" class=""><a href="https://esajournals.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/ecm.1340#ecm1340-bib-0009" class="bibLink tab-link" id="ecm1340-bib-0009R" data-tab="pane-pcw-references" style="box-sizing: border-box; background-color: transparent; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); cursor: pointer; display: inline; word-break: break-word; font-weight: 600;">1990</a></span>). Douglas‐fir trees may be well suited to shift upslope with climate change (Hansen and Phillips <span title="" style="box-sizing: border-box;" class=""><a href="https://esajournals.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/ecm.1340#ecm1340-bib-0040" class="bibLink tab-link" id="ecm1340-bib-0040R" data-tab="pane-pcw-references" style="box-sizing: border-box; background-color: transparent; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); cursor: pointer; display: inline; word-break: break-word; font-weight: 600;">2015</a></span>). Spring–summer temperature in Yellowstone could warm 4.5–5.5°C by the end of this century, while precipitation amount is not projected to change (Westerling et al. <span title="" style="box-sizing: border-box;" class=""><a href="https://esajournals.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/ecm.1340#ecm1340-bib-0125" class="bibLink tab-link" id="ecm1340-bib-0125R" data-tab="pane-pcw-references" style="box-sizing: border-box; background-color: transparent; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); cursor: pointer; display: inline; word-break: break-word; font-weight: 600;">2011</a></span>). As a result, moisture deficit is widely expected to increase, fostering greater fire activity (Westerling et al. <span title="" style="box-sizing: border-box;" class=""><a href="https://esajournals.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/ecm.1340#ecm1340-bib-0125" class="bibLink tab-link" id="ecm1340-bib-0125R" data-tab="pane-pcw-references" style="box-sizing: border-box; background-color: transparent; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); cursor: pointer; display: inline; word-break: break-word; font-weight: 600;">2011</a></span>). Thus, the importance of postfire tree seedling establishment to continued subalpine forest resilience is likely to only grow.</p><p style="box-sizing: border-box; margin-top: 5px; margin-bottom: 16px; line-height: 24px;" class="">Our complementary experiments addressed two questions: (1) How will projected early‐ to mid‐21st century warming and drying affect postfire tree seedling establishment and mortality? We hypothesized that projected warming and drying would reduce postfire lodgepole pine seedling establishment and enhance establishment of Douglas‐fir seedlings. (2) How does initial seedling growth differ between species and vary with warming and drying? We expected lodgepole pine to grow taller and produce more needles with warming and we expected Douglas‐fir to grow longer roots in response to drying.</p></div></section></article></div></span></div><div class="">
<div dir="auto" style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0); letter-spacing: normal; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-wrap: break-word; -webkit-nbsp-mode: space; line-break: after-white-space;" class=""><div dir="auto" style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0); letter-spacing: normal; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-wrap: break-word; -webkit-nbsp-mode: space; line-break: after-white-space;" class=""><div dir="auto" style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0); letter-spacing: normal; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-wrap: break-word; -webkit-nbsp-mode: space; line-break: after-white-space;" class=""><div style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0); letter-spacing: normal; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-wrap: break-word; -webkit-nbsp-mode: space; line-break: after-white-space;" class=""><div style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0); letter-spacing: normal; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-wrap: break-word; -webkit-nbsp-mode: space; line-break: after-white-space;" class=""><div style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0); letter-spacing: normal; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-wrap: break-word; -webkit-nbsp-mode: space; line-break: after-white-space;" class=""><div><div class="">**************************************<br class=""><br class="">"The global shipping industry is continuing to release more and more greenhouse gas emissions by the year, <br class="">according to a new study released by the International Council on Clean Transportation (ICCT).<br class=""><br class="">"The findings are the result of an analysis utilizing 'state of the art' global ship operations (AIS) data, along <br class="">with detailed vessel characteristics relating to over half a million ships — collectively used to estimate <br class="">greenhouse gas emissions and air pollution released by shipping “at high resolution (1° x 1°) on an hourly <br class="">basis for the years 2013 to 2015.”<br class=""><br class="">CleanTechnica Oct 24 2017<br class=""><a href="https://cleantechnica.com/2017/10/24/icct-shipping-industrys-greenhouse-gas-emissions-rise/" class="">https://cleantechnica.com/2017/10/24/icct-shipping-industrys-greenhouse-gas-emissions-rise/</a><br class=""></div>****************************************<br class=""><br class="">"We linked 25,000 Animalia species threat records from the International Union for Conservation of Nature Red List to more than 15,000 commodities …. <br class="">we found that 30% of global species threats are due to international trade. In many developed countries, the consumption of imported coffee, tea, sugar, <br class="">textiles, fish and ... manufactured items causes a biodiversity footprint that is larger abroad than at home."<br class=""><br class="">M. Lenzen, D. Moran, K. Kanemoto, B. Foran, L. Lobefaro & A. Geschke.<br class="">International trade drives biodiversity threats in developing nations. <br class="">Nature 7 June 2012 doi:10.1038/nature11145</div></div></div></div></div></div></div>
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