<html><head><meta http-equiv="Content-Type" content="text/html; charset=utf-8"></head><body style="word-wrap: break-word; -webkit-nbsp-mode: space; line-break: after-white-space;" class=""><div style="font-variant-ligatures: normal; orphans: 2; widows: 2; margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);" class="">Proceedings of the National Academy of Scientists first published November 7, 2019.</div><div style="font-variant-ligatures: normal; orphans: 2; widows: 2; margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; color: rgb(0, 90, 150); background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);" class=""><span style="font-kerning: none;" class=""><a href="https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1917051116" target="_blank" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1917051116&source=gmail&ust=1573311928264000&usg=AFQjCNGOMXGav27bzfa21qHrnGQdEN3alw" style="color: rgb(17, 85, 204);" class="">https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.<wbr class="">1917051116<span style="font-kerning: none; color: rgb(0, 90, 150);" class=""></span></a></span></div><div style="font-variant-ligatures: normal; orphans: 2; widows: 2; margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; color: rgb(0, 90, 150); background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); min-height: 17px;" class=""><span style="font-kerning: none;" class=""></span><br class=""></div><div style="font-variant-ligatures: normal; orphans: 2; widows: 2; margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; color: rgb(0, 90, 150); background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);" class=""><span style="font-kerning: none;" class=""><a href="https://www.pnas.org/content/early/2019/11/06/1917051116" target="_blank" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.pnas.org/content/early/2019/11/06/1917051116&source=gmail&ust=1573311928264000&usg=AFQjCNE3y8o7XQlfCvhmMlKQXM_vgz7u3w" style="color: rgb(17, 85, 204);" class=""><b class="">Lasting coastal hazards from past greenhouse gas emissions</b></a></span></div><div style="font-variant-ligatures: normal; orphans: 2; widows: 2; margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);" class=""><span style="font-kerning: none;" class="">Tony E. Wong</span></div><div style="font-variant-ligatures: normal; orphans: 2; widows: 2; margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); min-height: 17px;" class=""><span style="font-kerning: none;" class=""></span><br class=""></div><p style="font-variant-ligatures: normal; orphans: 2; widows: 2; margin: 0px 0px 22.5px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);" class=""><span style="font-kerning: none;" class="">The emission of greenhouse gases into Earth’s atmosphere is a by-product of modern marvels such as the production of vast amounts of energy, heating and cooling inhospitable environments to be amenable to human existence, and traveling great distances faster than our saddle-sore ancestors ever dreamed possible. However,</span><span style="font-kerning: none; background-color: rgb(255, 251, 0);" class=""> these <b class="">luxuries </b>come at a price: climate changes in the form of severe droughts, extreme precipitation and temperatures, increased frequency of flooding in coastal cities, global warming, and sea-level rise (</span><span style="font-kerning: none;" class="">1, 2). Rising seas pose a severe risk to coastal areas across the globe, with billions of US dollars in assets at risk and about 10% of the world’s population living within 10 m of sea level (3</span><span style="font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal;" class="">⇓</span><span style="font-kerning: none;" class="">–5). The price of our emissions is not felt immediately throughout the entire climate system, however, because processes such as ice sheet melt and the expansion of warming ocean water act over the course of centuries. Thus, even if all greenhouse gas emissions immediately ceased, our past emissions have already “locked in” some amount of continued global warming and sea-level rise. In PNAS, Nauels et al. (6) <<<a href="https://www.pnas.org/content/early/2019/10/31/1907461116" target="_blank" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.pnas.org/content/early/2019/10/31/1907461116&source=gmail&ust=1573311928264000&usg=AFQjCNG1xZkUGP4F4mIB5wqWA0PA2lxpcg" style="color: rgb(17, 85, 204);" class=""><span style="font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; color: rgb(0, 0, 238); background-color: transparent;" class="">https://www.pnas.org/<wbr class="">content/early/2019/10/31/<wbr class="">1907461116</span></a>>>examine how greenhouse gas emissions since 1750, and anticipated future emissions, contribute to global sea-level rise.</span></p><p style="font-variant-ligatures: normal; orphans: 2; widows: 2; margin: 0px 0px 22.5px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);" class=""><span style="font-kerning: none;" class="">They find that emissions from 1750 to 1991 have committed us to about 60 cm of additional sea-level rise by the year 2300, relative to the mean from 1986 to 2005, with another 24 cm stemming from greenhouse gases emitted between 1991 and 2016. So, through our emissions thus far in modern human history, we have committed to a total sea-level rise of about 84 cm over the next couple of centuries. </span><span style="font-kerning: none; background-color: rgb(255, 251, 0);" class="">This is the price we pay for the<b class=""> luxury</b> of about 200 y of relatively unchecked greenhouse gas emissions.</span></p><div class=""><span style="font-kerning: none; background-color: rgb(255, 251, 0);" class=""><br class=""></span></div><div class="">
<div style="caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family: Verdana; font-size: 14px; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: auto; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: auto; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-size-adjust: auto; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; text-decoration: none;"><div style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; font-size: 12px; line-height: normal; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);" class=""><span style="-webkit-font-kerning: none;" class="">*************************************</span></div><div style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; font-size: 12px; line-height: normal;" class=""><span style="text-decoration: underline; -webkit-font-kerning: none; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);" class=""><a href="https://www.dw.com/en/domino-effect-could-heat-up-earth-by-5-degrees-celsius-despite-paris-climate-deal/a-44968248" class="">Domino effect could heat up Earth by 5 degrees Celsius <span style="-webkit-font-kerning: none;" class=""></span></a></span></div><div style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; font-size: 12px; line-height: normal; color: rgb(0, 105, 217);" class=""><span style="text-decoration: underline; -webkit-font-kerning: none; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);" class=""><a href="https://www.dw.com/en/domino-effect-could-heat-up-earth-by-5-degrees-celsius-despite-paris-climate-deal/a-44968248" class="">https://www.dw.com/en/domino-effect-could-heat-up-earth-by-5-degrees-celsius-despite-paris-climate-deal/a-44968248<span style="-webkit-font-kerning: none;" class=""></span></a></span></div><div style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; font-size: 12px; line-height: normal; color: rgb(14, 119, 68); min-height: 15px;" class=""><span style="-webkit-font-kerning: none;" class=""></span><br class=""></div><div style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; font-size: 12px; line-height: normal; color: rgb(34, 34, 34);" class=""><span style="-webkit-font-kerning: none; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);" class="">Aug 6, 2018<span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span><b class="">...</b><span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span>Even if the Paris agreement is successfully implemented, the planet could still heat up by 5 degrees Celsius, scientists warn.</span></div><div style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; font-size: 12px; line-height: normal; min-height: 15px;" class=""><span style="-webkit-font-kerning: none;" class=""></span><br class=""></div><div style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; font-size: 12px; line-height: normal; color: rgb(62, 62, 62); background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);" class=""><span style="-webkit-font-kerning: none;" class="">The lead authors say:</span></div><div style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; font-size: 12px; line-height: normal; color: rgb(62, 62, 62); min-height: 15px;" class=""><span style="-webkit-font-kerning: none;" class=""></span><br class=""></div><div style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; font-size: 12px; line-height: normal; color: rgb(62, 62, 62); background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);" class=""><span style="-webkit-font-kerning: none;" class="">“Our study suggests that human-induced global warming of 2 degrees Celsius may trigger other Earth system processes, often called 'feedbacks,' that can drive further warming — even if we stop emitting greenhouse gases.” </span></div><div style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; font-size: 12px; line-height: normal; color: rgb(136, 136, 136); min-height: 15px;" class=""><span style="-webkit-font-kerning: none;" class=""></span><br class=""></div><div style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; font-size: 12px; line-height: normal; color: rgb(62, 62, 62); background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);" class=""><span style="-webkit-font-kerning: none;" class="">And:</span></div><div style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; font-size: 12px; line-height: normal; color: rgb(62, 62, 62); background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);" class=""><span style="-webkit-font-kerning: none;" class="">“These tipping elements can potentially act like a row of dominos. Once one is pushed over, it pushes Earth toward another. It may be very difficult or impossible to stop the whole row of dominoes from tumbling over.” </span></div><div style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; font-size: 12px; line-height: normal; min-height: 15px;" class=""><span style="-webkit-font-kerning: none;" class=""></span><br class=""></div><div style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; font-size: 12px; line-height: normal; min-height: 15px;" class=""><span style="-webkit-font-kerning: none;" class=""></span><br class=""></div><div style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; font-size: 12px; line-height: normal;" class=""><span style="-webkit-font-kerning: none;" class="">The above referenced PNAS article:</span></div><div style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; font-size: 12px; line-height: normal;" class=""><span style="-webkit-font-kerning: none;" class="">Steffen,<span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span></span><span style="-webkit-font-kerning: none; color: rgb(62, 62, 62); background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);" class="">Rockström</span><span style="-webkit-font-kerning: none;" class=""><span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span>et al. Trajectories of the Earth System in the Anthropocene. PNAS August 2018.<span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span><b class="">[Open access]</b></span></div><div style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; font-size: 12px; line-height: normal; color: rgb(0, 105, 217);" class=""><span style="text-decoration: underline; -webkit-font-kerning: none;" class=""><a href="http://www.pnas.org/content/early/2018/07/31/1810141115" class="">http://www.pnas.org/content/early2018/07/31/1810141115</a></span></div></div>
</div>
<br class=""></body></html>