<html><head><meta http-equiv="Content-Type" content="text/html; charset=utf-8"></head><body style="word-wrap: break-word; -webkit-nbsp-mode: space; line-break: after-white-space;" class=""><div style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);" class=""><span style="font-kerning: none" class="">Nature December 19, 2019</span></div><div style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);" class=""><span style="font-kerning: none" class=""><b class="">The coming climate crunch</b></span></div><div style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; color: rgb(102, 102, 102); min-height: 17px;" class=""><span style="font-kerning: none" class=""></span><br class=""></div><div style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; color: rgb(34, 34, 34);" class=""><span style="font-kerning: none; background-color: #ffffff" class="">Environmental crises have become depressingly familiar in the past decade, and the alarming rate of global warming lies behind many of them. The latter half of the decade — 2015 to 2019 — was the warmest five years on record, according to the World Meteorological Organization. </span><span style="font-kerning: none; background-color: #fffb00" class="">The pace of warming means that the window for avoiding temperature rises of 1.5 <b class="">or 2</b></span><span style="font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; font-family: "Lucida Grande"; -webkit-font-kerning: none; background-color: rgb(255, 251, 0);" class=""><b class=""> </b></span><span style="font-kerning: none; background-color: #fffb00" class=""><b class="">°C </b>above pre-industrial levels is now frighteningly small. The 2020s will be make-or-break.</span><span style="font-kerning: none; background-color: #ffffff" class=""> If carbon emissions are not drastically reduced by 2030, we will be entering uncharted territory, including the possibility — albeit subject to much debate — of passing irreversible tipping points<a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-019-03857-x#ref-CR12" class=""><span style="font-kerning: none; color: #006699" class="">12</span></a>, such as the widespread loss of Antarctic ice.</span></div><div style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; color: rgb(0, 105, 217);" class=""><span style="text-decoration: underline ; font-kerning: none" class=""><a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-019-03857-x" class="">https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-019-03857-x</a></span></div><div class="">
<div dir="auto" style="caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); color: rgb(0, 0, 0); letter-spacing: normal; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; text-decoration: none; word-wrap: break-word; -webkit-nbsp-mode: space; line-break: after-white-space;" class=""><div dir="auto" style="caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); color: rgb(0, 0, 0); letter-spacing: normal; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; text-decoration: none; word-wrap: break-word; -webkit-nbsp-mode: space; line-break: after-white-space;" class=""><div dir="auto" style="word-wrap: break-word; -webkit-nbsp-mode: space; line-break: after-white-space;" class=""><div style="caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family: Verdana; font-size: 14px; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; text-decoration: none;"><div style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; font-size: 12px; line-height: normal;" class=""><b class="">~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~</b></div><div style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; font-size: 12px; line-height: normal;" class=""><b class="">A core question: What is “resilience”?</b></div><div style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; font-size: 12px; line-height: normal;" class=""><b class=""><br class=""></b></div><div style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; font-size: 12px; line-height: normal; min-height: 15px;" class=""><p style="margin: 0px 0px 12px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal;" class="">2018 — “Resilience is a popular narrative for conservation and provides an opportunity to communicate optimism that ecosystems can recover and rebound from disturbances.” (Emily S. Darling<span style="vertical-align: 4px;" class=""> </span><i class="">and </i>Isabelle M. Côté, Science, March 2, 2018). </p><div style="font-size: 14px;" class=""><span style="font-size: 12px;" class="">2014 — “Emerging from a wide range of disciplines, resilience in policy-making has often been based on the ability of systems to bounce back to normality, drawing on engineering concepts. This implies the return of the functions of an individual, household, community or ecosystem to previous conditions, with as little damage and disruption as possible following shocks and stresses” (Tanner et al, Nature Climate Change, December 18, 2014). </span></div><div id="m_-1046162086629656228gmail-AppleMailSignature" style="font-size: 14px;" class=""><div class="m_-1046162086629656228gmail-ApplePlainTextBody"><div style="font-variant-ligatures: normal; orphans: 2; widows: 2; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; font-size: 12px; line-height: normal; min-height: 15px;" class=""><br class=""></div><div style="font-variant-ligatures: normal; orphans: 2; widows: 2; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; font-size: 12px; line-height: normal;" class="">1938 — Resilience<b class="">.</b><span class="m_-1046162086629656228gmail-Apple-converted-space"> </span>1- The act or power of springing back to a former position or shape. 2. The quantity of work given back by a body that is compressed to a certain limit and then allowed to recover itself, as a spring under pressure suddenly relaxed.” (Funk & Wagnall’s New Standard Dictionary of the English Language, vol.2, M-Z 1938)</div><div class=""><br class=""></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div><br class="Apple-interchange-newline"><br class="Apple-interchange-newline">
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