<html><head><meta http-equiv="Content-Type" content="text/html; charset=utf-8"></head><body style="word-wrap: break-word; -webkit-nbsp-mode: space; line-break: after-white-space;" class=""><div style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal;" class="">Vox January 3, 2019</div><div style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; min-height: 17px;" class=""><br class=""></div><div style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: initial; margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; color: rgb(76, 78, 77); -webkit-text-stroke-color: rgb(76, 78, 77);" class=""><span style="-webkit-font-kerning: none; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);" class=""><b class="">The sad truth about our boldest climate target</b></span></div><p style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: initial; margin: 0px 0px 7.2px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; color: rgb(102, 102, 102); -webkit-text-stroke-color: rgb(102, 102, 102); background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);" class=""><span style="-webkit-font-kerning: none;" class="">Limiting global warming to 1.5˚C is almost certainly not going to happen. Admitting that need not end hope.</span></p><div style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: initial; margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; color: rgb(79, 113, 119); -webkit-text-stroke-color: rgb(79, 113, 119); background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);" class=""><span style="-webkit-font-kerning: none; color: rgb(102, 102, 102); -webkit-text-stroke-color: rgb(102, 102, 102);" class="">By <a href="https://www.vox.com/authors/david-roberts" class=""><span style="-webkit-font-kerning: none; color: rgb(79, 113, 119); -webkit-text-stroke-color: rgb(79, 113, 119);" class="">David Roberts</span></a><a href="https://www.twitter.com/drvox" class=""><span style="-webkit-font-kerning: none; color: rgb(79, 113, 119); -webkit-text-stroke-color: rgb(79, 113, 119);" class="">@drvox</span></a><a href="mailto:david@vox.com" class=""><span style="-webkit-font-kerning: none; color: rgb(79, 113, 119); -webkit-text-stroke-color: rgb(79, 113, 119);" class="">david@vox.com</span></a> </span></div><div style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: initial; margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; color: rgb(0, 0, 238); -webkit-text-stroke-color: rgb(0, 0, 238);" class=""><span style="text-decoration: underline; -webkit-font-kerning: none;" class=""><a href="https://www.vox.com/energy-and-environment/2020/1/3/21045263/climate-change-1-5-degrees-celsius-target-ipcc" class="">https://www.vox.com/energy-and-environment/2020/1/3/21045263/climate-change-1-5-degrees-celsius-target-ipcc</a></span></div><div style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: initial; margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; color: rgb(102, 102, 102); -webkit-text-stroke-color: rgb(102, 102, 102); background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); min-height: 17px;" class=""><span style="-webkit-font-kerning: none;" class=""></span><br class=""></div><p style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: initial; margin: 0px 0px 14.4px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; color: rgb(76, 78, 77); -webkit-text-stroke-color: rgb(76, 78, 77); background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);" class=""><span style="-webkit-font-kerning: none;" class=""><b class="">Excerpts</b></span></p><p style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: initial; margin: 0px 0px 14.4px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; color: rgb(76, 78, 77); -webkit-text-stroke-color: rgb(76, 78, 77); background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);" class=""><span style="-webkit-font-kerning: none;" class="">If we had peaked and begun steadily reducing emissions 20 years ago, …..</span></p><p style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: initial; margin: 0px 0px 14.4px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; color: rgb(76, 78, 77); -webkit-text-stroke-color: rgb(76, 78, 77); background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);" class=""><span style="-webkit-font-kerning: none;" class="">We didn’t, though. …..Humanity has put more CO2 in the atmosphere since 1988, when climate scientist James Hansen first testified to Congress about the danger of climate change, than it did in all of history prior.</span></p><p style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: initial; margin: 0px 0px 14.4px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; color: rgb(76, 78, 77); -webkit-text-stroke-color: rgb(76, 78, 77); background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);" class=""><span style="-webkit-font-kerning: none;" class="">Temperature is almost certainly going to rise more than 1.5˚C.</span></p><p style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: initial; margin: 0px 0px 14.4px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; color: rgb(76, 78, 77); -webkit-text-stroke-color: rgb(76, 78, 77);" class=""><span style="-webkit-font-kerning: none;" class=""><span style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);" class="">A lot of climate activists are extremely averse to saying so. In fact, many of them will be angry with me for saying so, because they believe that admitting to this looming probability carries with it all sorts of dire consequences and implications. </span><span style="background-color: rgb(255, 251, 0);" class="">Lots of people in the climate world — not just activists and politicians, but scientists, journalists, and everyday concerned citizens — have talked themselves into a kind of forced public-facing optimism, despite the fears that dog their private thoughts. They believe that without that public optimism, the fragile effort to battle climate change will collapse completely.</span></span></p><p style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: initial; margin: 0px 0px 14.4px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; color: rgb(76, 78, 77); -webkit-text-stroke-color: rgb(76, 78, 77);" class=""><span style="-webkit-font-kerning: none;" class=""><span style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);" class="">It looks like we have already locked in levels of climate change that scientists predict will be devastating. I don’t like it, I don’t “accept” it, but I see it, and </span><span style="background-color: rgb(255, 251, 0);" class="">I reject the notion that I should be silent about it for PR purposes.</span></span></p><p style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: initial; margin: 0px 0px 14.4px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; color: rgb(76, 78, 77); -webkit-text-stroke-color: rgb(76, 78, 77);" class=""><span style="-webkit-font-kerning: none;" class=""><span style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);" class="">I know from conversations over the years that many people see that tragedy, and feel it, but given the perpetually heightened partisan tensions around climate change, they are</span><span style="background-color: rgb(255, 251, 0);" class=""> leery to give it voice. They worry that it will lend fuel to the forces of denial and delay, that they are</span><span style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);" class=""> </span><a href="https://www.vox.com/energy-and-environment/2017/12/5/16732772/emotion-climate-change-communication" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);" class=""><span style="-webkit-font-kerning: none; color: rgb(79, 113, 119); -webkit-text-stroke-color: rgb(79, 113, 119);" class=""><b class="">morally obliged to provide cheer</b></span></a><span style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);" class="">.</span></span></p><p style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: initial; margin: 0px 0px 14.4px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; color: rgb(76, 78, 77); -webkit-text-stroke-color: rgb(76, 78, 77);" class=""><span style="-webkit-font-kerning: none;" class=""><span style="background-color: rgb(255, 251, 0);" class="">I just don’t think that’s healthy.</span><span style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);" class=""> To really grapple with climate change, we have to understand it, and more than that, take it on board emotionally.</span></span></p><div style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: initial; margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; color: rgb(0, 0, 238); -webkit-text-stroke-color: rgb(0, 0, 238);" class=""><span style="text-decoration: underline; -webkit-font-kerning: none;" class=""><a href="https://www.vox.com/energy-and-environment/2020/1/3/21045263/climate-change-1-5-degrees-celsius-target-ipcc" class="">https://www.vox.com/energy-and-environment/2020/1/3/21045263/climate-change-1-5-degrees-celsius-target-ipcc</a></span></div><div style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: initial; margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; color: rgb(0, 0, 238); -webkit-text-stroke-color: rgb(0, 0, 238);" class=""><br class=""></div><div style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: initial; margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; color: rgb(0, 0, 238); -webkit-text-stroke-color: rgb(0, 0, 238);" class=""><br class=""></div><div class=""><div dir="auto" style="word-wrap: break-word; -webkit-nbsp-mode: space; line-break: after-white-space;" class=""><div dir="auto" style="word-wrap: break-word; -webkit-nbsp-mode: space; line-break: after-white-space;" class=""><div style="word-wrap: break-word; -webkit-nbsp-mode: space; line-break: after-white-space;" class=""><div style="word-wrap: break-word; -webkit-nbsp-mode: space; line-break: after-white-space;" class=""><div style="word-wrap: break-word; -webkit-nbsp-mode: space; line-break: after-white-space;" class=""><div style="word-wrap: break-word; -webkit-nbsp-mode: space; line-break: after-white-space;" class=""><div style="word-wrap: break-word; -webkit-nbsp-mode: space; line-break: after-white-space;" class=""><div><div><span style="font-size: 12px;" class="">&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&.</span><b class=""><font size="4" class=""> 1970 </font></b></div><div><span style="font-size: 12px;" class=""><br class=""></span></div><div><span style="font-size: 12px;" class=""><span style="background-color: rgb(255, 251, 0);" class="">"The greatest disturbances of which we are aware are those now being introduced by man himself.</span> Since his tampering with the biological and geochemical balances <span style="background-color: rgb(255, 251, 0);" class="">may ultimately prove injurious -- even fatal -</span>- to himself, he must understand them better than today."<br class=""><br class="">Bert Bolin. <b class="">"The Carbon Cycle."</b><br class=""><br class="">Scientific American, September 1970</span></div><div><span style="font-size: 12px;" class=""><br class=""></span></div><div><span style="font-size: 12px;" class="">&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&</span><b class=""><font size="4" class=""> 47 years later </font></b></div><div><span style="font-size: 12px;" class=""><br class=""></span></div><div><span style="font-size: 12px;" class=""> <b class="">Is there really still a chance for staying below 1.5 °C global warming?</b></span></div><div><b style="font-size: 12px;" class=""><br class=""></b></div><div><span style="font-size: 12px;" class="">Stefan Rahmstorf. September 2017</span></div><div><b style="font-size: 12px;" class=""><br class=""></b></div><div><span style="font-size: 12px;" class=""><span style="background-color: rgb(255, 251, 0);" class="">"We still live in a world on a path to 3 or 4 °C global warming,</span> waiting to finally turn the tide of rising emissions. At this point, debating whether we have 0.2 °C more or less to go until we reach 1.5 °C is an academic discussion at best, a distraction at worst. The big issue is that we need to see falling emissions globally very very soon if we even want to stay well below 2 °C. That was agreed as the weaker goal in Paris in a consensus by 195 nations. It is high time that everyone backs this up with actions, not just words.”</span></div><div><span style="font-size: 12px;" class=""><br class=""></span></div><div><span style="font-size: 12px;" class=""><<<a href="http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2017/09/is-there-really-still-a-chance-for-staying-below-1-5-c-global-warming/" class="">http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2017/09/is-there-really-still-a-chance-for-staying-below-1-5-c-global-warming/</a>>></span></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></body></html>