<html><head><meta http-equiv="Content-Type" content="text/html; charset=utf-8"></head><body style="word-wrap: break-word; -webkit-nbsp-mode: space; line-break: after-white-space;" class="">Island Press is giving away ebooks on climate and sustainability. <br class=""><br class=""><a href="https://islandpress.org/free-e-books" class="">https://islandpress.org/free-e-books</a><div class=""><br class=""></div><div class=""><br class=""></div><div class=""><br class=""><div class="">
<div dir="auto" style="word-wrap: break-word; -webkit-nbsp-mode: space; line-break: after-white-space;" class=""><div style="caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family: Verdana; font-size: 14px; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; text-decoration: none;">**************** A tale of 2 done deals **********************</div><div style="caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family: Verdana; font-size: 14px; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; text-decoration: none;"><br class=""></div><div style="caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family: Verdana; font-size: 14px; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; text-decoration: none;"><div style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; font-size: 12px; line-height: normal;" class="">Extinction can be a done deal long before we see it. </div><div style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; font-size: 12px; line-height: normal; min-height: 15px;" class=""><br class=""></div><div style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; font-size: 12px; line-height: normal;" class="">Cranking up the heat is clearly a done deal well before we feel it. </div><div style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; font-size: 12px; line-height: normal; min-height: 15px;" class=""><br class=""></div><div style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; font-size: 12px; line-height: normal;" class="">Each done deal is understood as a lag effect, where the effect of an action or policy doesn’t show up right away, but does show up after years of delay. </div><div style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; font-size: 12px; line-height: normal; min-height: 15px;" class=""><br class=""></div><div style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; font-size: 12px; line-height: normal;" class="">Each type of done deal offers a measure of predictability important to understanding what the future likely holds.</div><div style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; font-size: 12px; line-height: normal; min-height: 15px;" class=""><br class=""></div><div style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; font-size: 12px; line-height: normal;" class=""><b class="">EXTINCTION AS A DONE DEAL FELT ONLY AFTER A DELAY</b></div><div style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; font-size: 12px; line-height: normal;" class="">Extinction as a done deal has been described in the language of “extinction debt.” When cast in this language, the “debt’ isn’t “paid off” until — after a delay, or lag time — a species or community of species is finally gone. Many peer-reviewed studies have crunched the numbers on extinction debt, tracing extinction back to actions/policies that set the done deal in motion. </div><div style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; font-size: 12px; line-height: normal; min-height: 15px;" class=""><br class=""></div><div style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; font-size: 12px; line-height: normal; color: rgb(51, 51, 51);" class=""><span style="-webkit-font-kerning: none; color: rgb(0, 0, 0);" class="">PNAS<span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span></span><span style="-webkit-font-kerning: none; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);" class="">April 30, 2013 </span></div><div style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; font-size: 12px; line-height: normal;" class=""><span style="-webkit-font-kerning: none;" class=""><b class="">Europe’s other debt crisis caused by the long legacy of future extinctions </b></span></div><div style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; font-size: 12px; line-height: normal; color: rgb(0, 0, 238);" class=""><span style="text-decoration: underline; -webkit-font-kerning: none;" class=""><a href="https://www.pnas.org/content/pnas/110/18/7342.full.pdf" class="">https://www.pnas.org/content/pnas/110/18/7342.full.pdf</a></span></div><div style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; font-size: 12px; line-height: normal;" class=""><span style="-webkit-font-kerning: none;" class="">Stefan Dullinger et al</span></div><div style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; font-size: 12px; line-height: normal; min-height: 15px;" class=""><span style="-webkit-font-kerning: none;" class=""></span><br class=""></div><div style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; font-size: 12px; line-height: normal;" class=""><span style="-webkit-font-kerning: none;" class=""><b class="">Keywords</b></span></div><div style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; font-size: 12px; line-height: normal;" class=""><span style="-webkit-font-kerning: none;" class="">extinction debt<span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span></span><span style="vertical-align: -3px; -webkit-font-kerning: none;" class="">|<span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span></span><span style="-webkit-font-kerning: none;" class="">socioeconomic history<span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span></span><span style="vertical-align: -3px; -webkit-font-kerning: none;" class="">| lag effect</span></div><div style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; font-size: 12px; line-height: normal;" class=""><span style="-webkit-font-kerning: none;" class=""><b class="">Abstract</b></span></div><div style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; font-size: 12px; line-height: normal; color: rgb(0, 0, 238);" class=""><span style="text-decoration: underline; -webkit-font-kerning: none;" class=""><a href="https://www.pnas.org/content/pnas/110/18/7342.full.pdf" class="">https://www.pnas.org/content/pnas/110/18/7342.full.pdf</a></span></div><p style="margin: 0px 0px 12px; font-stretch: normal; font-size: 12px; line-height: normal; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);" class=""><span style="-webkit-font-kerning: none; background-color: rgb(255, 251, 0);" class="">Rapid economic development in the past century has translated into severe pressures on species survival<span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span></span><span style="-webkit-font-kerning: none;" class="">as a result of increasing land-use change, environmental pollution, and the spread of invasive alien species. However, though the impact of these pressures on biodiversity is substantial, it could be seriously underestimated if population declines of plants and animals lag behind contemporary environmental degradation. Here, we test for such a delay in impact by relating numbers of threatened species appearing on national red lists to historical and contemporary levels of socioeconomic pressures. Across 22 European countries, the proportions of<span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span></span><span style="-webkit-font-kerning: none; background-color: rgb(255, 251, 0);" class="">vascular plants,</span><span style="-webkit-font-kerning: none;" class=""><span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span>bryophytes,<span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span></span><span style="-webkit-font-kerning: none; background-color: rgb(255, 251, 0);" class="">mammals</span><span style="-webkit-font-kerning: none;" class="">, reptiles, dragonflies, and grasshoppers facing<span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span></span><span style="-webkit-font-kerning: none; background-color: rgb(255, 251, 0);" class="">medium-to-high extinction risks are more closely matched to indicators of<span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span><b class="">socioeconomic pressures<span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span></b></span><span style="-webkit-font-kerning: none;" class=""><b class="">(</b></span><span style="-webkit-font-kerning: none; background-color: rgb(255, 251, 0);" class=""><b class="">i.e., human population density,</b><span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span>per capita gross domestic product, and a measure of land use intensity)</span><span style="-webkit-font-kerning: none;" class=""><span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span></span><span style="-webkit-font-kerning: none; background-color: rgb(255, 251, 0);" class=""><b class="">from the early or mid-, rather than the late, 20th century</b></span><span style="-webkit-font-kerning: none;" class=""><b class="">.</b><span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span>We conclude that, irrespective of recent conservation actions,<span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span><b class="">large- scale risks to biodiversity</b><span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span><b class="">lag considerably behind<span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span></b>contemporary levels of socioeconomic pressures.</span><span style="-webkit-font-kerning: none; background-color: rgb(255, 251, 0);" class=""><span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span>The negative impact of human activities on current biodiversity will not become fully realized until several decades into the future.</span><span style="-webkit-font-kerning: none;" class=""><span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span>Mitigating extinction risks might be an even greater challenge if temporal delays mean<span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span></span><span style="-webkit-font-kerning: none; background-color: rgb(255, 251, 0);" class=""><b class="">many threatened species might already b</b></span><span style="-webkit-font-kerning: none;" class="">e destined toward extinction</span><span style="-webkit-font-kerning: none; background-color: transparent;" class="">. </span></p><p style="margin: 0px 0px 12px; font-stretch: normal; font-size: 12px; line-height: normal; min-height: 15px;" class=""><span style="-webkit-font-kerning: none;" class=""><b class=""></b></span>***********************</p><p style="margin: 0px 0px 12px; font-stretch: normal; font-size: 12px; line-height: normal;" class=""><span style="-webkit-font-kerning: none;" class=""><b class="">HEIGHTENED HEAT AS A DONE DEAL<span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span></b></span><b class="">FELT ONLY AFTER A DELAY</b></p><div style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; font-size: 12px; line-height: normal;" class="">Environmental Research Letters<span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span><span style="-webkit-font-kerning: none; color: rgb(51, 51, 51);" class="">Published 2 December 2014</span></div><div style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; font-size: 12px; line-height: normal; color: rgb(0, 0, 238);" class=""><span style="text-decoration: underline; -webkit-font-kerning: none;" class=""><a href="https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/9/12/124002/pdf" class="">https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/9/12/124002/pdf</a></span></div><div style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; font-size: 12px; line-height: normal; min-height: 15px;" class=""><br class=""></div><div style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; font-size: 12px; line-height: normal; color: rgb(51, 51, 51);" class=""><span style="-webkit-font-kerning: none;" class=""><b class="">Maximum warming occurs about one decade after a carbon dioxide emission</b></span></div><div style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; font-size: 12px; line-height: normal; color: rgb(51, 51, 51);" class=""><span style="-webkit-font-kerning: none;" class="">Katharine L Ricke and Ken Caldeira</span></div><div style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; font-size: 12px; line-height: normal; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); min-height: 15px;" class=""><span style="-webkit-font-kerning: none;" class=""></span><br class=""></div><div style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; font-size: 12px; line-height: normal; color: rgb(51, 51, 51);" class=""><span style="-webkit-font-kerning: none;" class=""><b class="">50622</b> <b class="">Total downloads</b></span></div><div style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; font-size: 12px; line-height: normal; color: rgb(0, 0, 238);" class=""><span style="text-decoration: underline; -webkit-font-kerning: none;" class=""><a href="https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/9/12/124002/pdf" class="">https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/9/12/124002/pdf</a></span></div><p style="margin: 0px 0px 8.4px; font-stretch: normal; font-size: 12px; line-height: normal; color: rgb(51, 51, 51);" class=""><span style="-webkit-font-kerning: none;" class=""><b class="">Abstract</b></span></p><div style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; font-size: 12px; line-height: normal; color: rgb(51, 51, 51);" class=""><span style="-webkit-font-kerning: none; background-color: rgb(255, 251, 0);" class="">It is known that carbon dioxide emissions cause the Earth to warm, but no previous study has focused on examining how long it takes to reach maximum warming following a particular CO2 emission.</span><span style="-webkit-font-kerning: none;" class=""><span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span>Using conjoined results of carbon-cycle and physical-climate model intercomparison projects (Taylor <i class="">et al</i> 2012, Joos <i class="">et al</i> 2013),<span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span></span><span style="-webkit-font-kerning: none; background-color: rgb(255, 251, 0);" class="">we find the<span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span><b class="">median time</b><span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span>between an emission and maximum warming is 10.1 years</span><span style="-webkit-font-kerning: none;" class="">, with a 90% probability range of 6.6–30.7 years. We evaluate uncertainties in timing and amount of warming, partitioning them into three contributing factors: carbon cycle, climate sensitivity and ocean thermal inertia. If uncertainty in any one factor is reduced to zero without reducing uncertainty in the other factors, the majority of overall uncertainty remains. Thus, narrowing uncertainty in century-scale warming depends on narrowing uncertainty in all contributing factors. Our results indicate that benefit from avoided climate damage from avoided CO2 emissions will be manifested within the lifetimes of people who acted to avoid that emission. While such avoidance could be expected to benefit future generations, there is potential for emissions avoidance to provide substantial benefit to current generations.</span></div><div class=""><span style="-webkit-font-kerning: none;" class=""><br class=""></span></div></div><br class="Apple-interchange-newline"></div><br class="Apple-interchange-newline">
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