<html><head><meta http-equiv="Content-Type" content="text/html; charset=utf-8"></head><body style="word-wrap: break-word; -webkit-nbsp-mode: space; line-break: after-white-space;" class=""><div style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal;" class="">Scientific American Feb 24, 2020</div><div style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; min-height: 17px;" class=""><br class=""></div><div style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; color: rgb(26, 26, 26); -webkit-text-stroke-width: initial; -webkit-text-stroke-color: rgb(26, 26, 26); background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);" class=""><span style="font-kerning: none" class=""><b class="">Fossil-Fuel Subsidies Must End</b></span></div><div style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; color: rgb(50, 50, 50); -webkit-text-stroke-width: initial; -webkit-text-stroke-color: rgb(50, 50, 50); background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);" class=""><span style="font-kerning: none" class="">Despite claims to the contrary, eliminating them would have a significant effect in addressing the climate crisis</span></div>
<ul style="list-style-type: none" class="">
<li style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; color: rgb(101, 101, 101); -webkit-text-stroke-width: initial; -webkit-text-stroke-color: rgb(101, 101, 101); background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);" class=""><span style="-webkit-text-stroke-color: rgb(50, 50, 50);" class=""></span><span style="font-kerning: none" class="">By <a href="https://www.scientificamerican.com/author/geoffrey-supran/" class=""><span style="-webkit-font-kerning: none; color: rgb(101, 101, 101);" class="">Geoffrey Supran</span></a>, <a href="https://www.scientificamerican.com/author/peter-erickson/" class=""><span style="-webkit-font-kerning: none; color: rgb(101, 101, 101);" class="">Peter Erickson</span></a>, <a href="https://www.scientificamerican.com/author/doug-koplow/" class=""><span style="-webkit-font-kerning: none; color: rgb(101, 101, 101);" class="">Doug Koplow</span></a>, <a href="https://www.scientificamerican.com/author/michael-lazarus/" class=""><span style="-webkit-font-kerning: none; color: rgb(101, 101, 101);" class="">Michael Lazarus</span></a>, <a href="https://www.scientificamerican.com/author/peter-newell/" class=""><span style="-webkit-font-kerning: none; color: rgb(101, 101, 101);" class="">Peter Newell</span></a>, <a href="https://www.scientificamerican.com/author/naomi-oreskes/" class=""><span style="-webkit-font-kerning: none; color: rgb(101, 101, 101);" class="">Naomi Oreskes</span></a>, <a href="https://www.scientificamerican.com/author/harro-van-asselt/" class=""><span style="-webkit-font-kerning: none; color: rgb(101, 101, 101);" class="">Harro van Asselt</span></a> </span></li>
<li style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; color: rgb(101, 101, 101); -webkit-text-stroke-width: initial; -webkit-text-stroke-color: rgb(101, 101, 101); background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); min-height: 17px;" class=""></li>
</ul><div style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; font-family: Times; color: rgb(0, 0, 238); -webkit-text-stroke-width: initial; -webkit-text-stroke-color: rgb(0, 0, 238);" class=""><span style="font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; font-family: Verdana; -webkit-font-kerning: none; color: rgb(101, 101, 101); background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); -webkit-text-stroke-color: rgb(101, 101, 101);" class=""><<<a href="https://blogs.scientificamerican.com/observations/fossil-fuel-subsidies-must-end/" class=""><span style="font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; font-family: Times; -webkit-font-kerning: none; color: rgb(0, 0, 238); background-color: transparent; -webkit-text-stroke-color: rgb(0, 0, 238);" class="">https://blogs.scientificamerican.com/observations/fossil-fuel-subsidies-must-end/</span></a>>></span></div><div style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; color: rgb(50, 50, 50); -webkit-text-stroke-width: initial; -webkit-text-stroke-color: rgb(50, 50, 50); background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); min-height: 17px;" class=""><span style="font-kerning: none" class=""><b class=""></b></span><br class=""></div><div style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; color: rgb(50, 50, 50); -webkit-text-stroke-width: initial; -webkit-text-stroke-color: rgb(50, 50, 50); background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);" class=""><span style="font-kerning: none" class=""><b class="">1st 3 paragraphs</b></span></div><div style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; color: rgb(50, 50, 50); -webkit-text-stroke-width: initial; -webkit-text-stroke-color: rgb(50, 50, 50); background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); min-height: 17px;" class=""><span style="font-kerning: none" class=""></span><br class=""></div><div style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; color: rgb(50, 50, 50); -webkit-text-stroke-width: initial; -webkit-text-stroke-color: rgb(50, 50, 50); background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);" class=""><span style="font-kerning: none" class="">When it comes to tackling the climate crisis, ending <a href="https://www.iea.org/commentaries/fossil-fuel-consumption-subsidies-bounced-back-strongly-in-2018" class=""><span style="-webkit-font-kerning: none; color: rgb(101, 101, 101); -webkit-text-stroke-color: rgb(101, 101, 101);" class="">$400 billion</span></a> of annual subsidies to the fossil-fuel industry worldwide seems like a no-brainer. For the past decade, world leaders have been resolving and reaffirming the need to phase them out. All of the 2020 Democratic presidential candidates have <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/politics/policy-2020/climate-change/fossil-fuel-subsidies/" class=""><span style="-webkit-font-kerning: none; color: rgb(101, 101, 101); -webkit-text-stroke-color: rgb(101, 101, 101);" class="">committed</span></a> to eliminating fossil-fuel subsidies, and the <a href="https://climatecommunication.yale.edu/publications/do-americans-support-or-oppose-subsidies-for-fossil-fuels/" class=""><span style="-webkit-font-kerning: none; color: rgb(101, 101, 101); -webkit-text-stroke-color: rgb(101, 101, 101);" class="">vast majority</span></a> of the American public supports doing so. International financial institutions such as the <a href="https://www.worldbank.org/en/news/feature/2017/11/21/reforming-fossil-fuel-subsidies-for-a-cleaner-future" class=""><span style="-webkit-font-kerning: none; color: rgb(101, 101, 101); -webkit-text-stroke-color: rgb(101, 101, 101);" class="">World Bank</span></a> and <a href="https://www.imf.org/en/Topics/Environment/energy-subsidies" class=""><span style="-webkit-font-kerning: none; color: rgb(101, 101, 101); -webkit-text-stroke-color: rgb(101, 101, 101);" class="">International Monetary Fund</span></a> have joined the chorus, pointing to the benefits of reform.</span></div><div style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; font-size: 12px; line-height: normal; font-family: Times; color: rgb(0, 0, 238); -webkit-text-stroke-width: initial; -webkit-text-stroke-color: rgb(0, 0, 238);" class=""><span style="text-decoration: underline ; font-kerning: none" class=""><a href="https://blogs.scientificamerican.com/observations/fossil-fuel-subsidies-must-end/" class="">https://blogs.scientificamerican.com/observations/fossil-fuel-subsidies-must-end/</a></span></div><div style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; color: rgb(50, 50, 50); -webkit-text-stroke-width: initial; -webkit-text-stroke-color: rgb(50, 50, 50); background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);" class=""><span style="font-kerning: none" class="">In 2018, however, a group of researchers questioned the magnitude of the climate benefits of subsidy reform, <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/nature25467" class=""><span style="-webkit-font-kerning: none; color: rgb(101, 101, 101); -webkit-text-stroke-color: rgb(101, 101, 101);" class="">reporting</span></a> that their simulations showed its effect would be “limited” and “small.” <a href="https://www.theatlantic.com/science/archive/2018/02/maybe-cutting-fossil-fuel-subsidies-wouldnt-do-much-good/552668/" class=""><span style="-webkit-font-kerning: none; color: rgb(101, 101, 101); -webkit-text-stroke-color: rgb(101, 101, 101);" class="">Stories in the press</span></a> began <a href="https://www.carbonbrief.org/new-study-questions-impact-ending-fossil-fuel-subsidies" class=""><span style="-webkit-font-kerning: none; color: rgb(101, 101, 101); -webkit-text-stroke-color: rgb(101, 101, 101);" class="">asking</span></a> whether such subsidies are such a big deal after all.</span></div><div style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; color: rgb(50, 50, 50); -webkit-text-stroke-width: initial; -webkit-text-stroke-color: rgb(50, 50, 50); background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); min-height: 17px;" class=""><span style="font-kerning: none" class=""></span><br class=""></div><div style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; color: rgb(50, 50, 50); -webkit-text-stroke-width: initial; -webkit-text-stroke-color: rgb(50, 50, 50); background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);" class=""><span style="font-kerning: none" class="">We think this is wrong. In a new paper in the journal <i class="">Nature</i>, we <a href="https://urldefense.proofpoint.com/v2/url?u=https-3A__perma.cc_KTF4-2D239S&d=DwMFaQ&c=vh6FgFnduejNhPPD0fl_yRaSfZy8CWbWnIf4XJhSqx8&r=1fzmffI58KtZ2pDBBDolw6rafQBw7LqTj9gz0pSFkEU&m=ennqQS2uEEmnVr2RWVh1sfy2PzQVusSiHnX3C0RXV9I&s=Czkrc-lWjaGN0U-ubS1vjBNn_h1W18lyGmCgPx2cwZs&e=" class=""><span style="-webkit-font-kerning: none; color: rgb(101, 101, 101); -webkit-text-stroke-color: rgb(101, 101, 101);" class="">make the case</span></a> that they do matter—a lot. In the 2018 study, emissions reductions from subsidy removal were calculated by the researchers to be five hundred million to two billion metric tons of carbon dioxide per year by 2030. This figure is by no means “small.” It amounts to roughly one quarter of the energy-related emission reductions pledged by all of the countries participating in the Paris Agreement (four to eight billion tons). Hundreds of millions of metric tons of CO<sub class="">2</sub> reductions is nothing to sneeze at, particularly when it can be achieved by a single policy approach that also brings strong fiscal, environmental and health benefits.</span></div><div style="margin: 0px; text-align: center; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; color: rgb(50, 50, 50); -webkit-text-stroke-width: initial; -webkit-text-stroke-color: rgb(50, 50, 50); min-height: 17px;" class=""><span style="font-kerning: none" class=""></span><br class=""></div><div style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; color: rgb(101, 101, 101); -webkit-text-stroke-width: initial; -webkit-text-stroke-color: rgb(101, 101, 101); background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); min-height: 17px;" class=""><span style="font-kerning: none" class=""></span><br class=""></div><span style="font-size: 12px;" class="">***********************</span><br class=""><div class=""><div dir="auto" style="caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); color: rgb(0, 0, 0); letter-spacing: normal; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; text-decoration: none; word-wrap: break-word; -webkit-nbsp-mode: space; line-break: after-white-space;" class=""><div dir="auto" style="caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family: Verdana; font-size: 14px; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; text-decoration: none; word-wrap: break-word; -webkit-nbsp-mode: space; line-break: after-white-space;" class=""><div dir="auto" style="caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); color: rgb(0, 0, 0); letter-spacing: normal; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; text-decoration: none; word-wrap: break-word; -webkit-nbsp-mode: space; line-break: after-white-space;" class=""><div dir="auto" style="word-wrap: break-word; -webkit-nbsp-mode: space; line-break: after-white-space;" class=""><div style="caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family: Verdana; font-size: 14px; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; text-decoration: none;"><p style="margin: 0px 0px 12px; font-stretch: normal; font-size: 12px; line-height: normal;" class=""><span style="-webkit-font-kerning: none;" class=""><b class="">#2. HOTTER HEAT AS A DONE DEAL,<span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span></b></span><b class="">FELT AFTER A DELAY</b></p><div style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; font-size: 12px; line-height: normal;" class="">Environmental Research Letters<span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span><span style="-webkit-font-kerning: none; color: rgb(51, 51, 51);" class="">Published 2 December 2014</span></div><div style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; font-size: 12px; line-height: normal; color: rgb(0, 0, 238);" class=""><span style="text-decoration: underline; -webkit-font-kerning: none;" class=""><a href="https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/9/12/124002/pdf" class="">https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/9/12/124002/pdf</a></span></div><div style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; font-size: 12px; line-height: normal; min-height: 15px;" class=""><br class=""></div><div style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; font-size: 12px; line-height: normal; color: rgb(51, 51, 51);" class=""><span style="-webkit-font-kerning: none;" class=""><b class="">Maximum warming occurs about one decade after a carbon dioxide emission</b></span></div><div style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; font-size: 12px; line-height: normal; color: rgb(51, 51, 51);" class=""><span style="-webkit-font-kerning: none;" class="">Katharine L Ricke and Ken Caldeira</span></div><div style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; font-size: 12px; line-height: normal; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); min-height: 15px;" class=""><span style="-webkit-font-kerning: none;" class=""></span><br class=""></div><div style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; font-size: 12px; line-height: normal; color: rgb(51, 51, 51);" class=""><span style="-webkit-font-kerning: none;" class=""><b class="">50,622</b> <b class="">Total downloads</b></span></div><div style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; font-size: 12px; line-height: normal; color: rgb(0, 0, 238);" class=""><span style="text-decoration: underline; -webkit-font-kerning: none;" class=""><a href="https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/9/12/124002/pdf" class="">https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/9/12/124002/pdf</a></span></div><p style="margin: 0px 0px 8.4px; font-stretch: normal; font-size: 12px; line-height: normal; color: rgb(51, 51, 51);" class=""><span style="-webkit-font-kerning: none;" class=""><b class="">Abstract</b></span></p><div style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; font-size: 12px; line-height: normal; color: rgb(51, 51, 51);" class=""><span style="-webkit-font-kerning: none; background-color: rgb(255, 251, 0);" class="">It is known that carbon dioxide emissions cause the Earth to warm, but no previous study has focused on examining how long it takes to reach maximum warming following a particular CO2 emission.</span><span style="-webkit-font-kerning: none;" class=""><span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span>Using conjoined results of carbon-cycle and physical-climate model intercomparison projects (Taylor <i class="">et al</i> 2012, Joos <i class="">et al</i> 2013),<span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span></span><span style="-webkit-font-kerning: none; background-color: rgb(255, 251, 0);" class="">we find the<span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span><b class="">median time</b><span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span>between an emission and maximum warming is 10.1 years</span><span style="-webkit-font-kerning: none;" class="">, with a 90% probability range of 6.6–30.7 years. We evaluate uncertainties in timing and amount of warming, partitioning them into three contributing factors: carbon cycle, climate sensitivity and ocean thermal inertia. If uncertainty in any one factor is reduced to zero without reducing uncertainty in the other factors, the majority of overall uncertainty remains. Thus, narrowing uncertainty in century-scale warming depends on narrowing uncertainty in all contributing factors. Our results indicate that benefit from avoided climate damage from avoided CO2 emissions will be manifested within the lifetimes of people who acted to avoid that emission. While such avoidance could be expected to benefit future generations, there is potential for emissions avoidance to provide substantial benefit to current generations.</span></div><div class=""><span style="-webkit-font-kerning: none;" class=""><br class=""></span></div></div><br class="Apple-interchange-newline"></div></div><br class="Apple-interchange-newline"></div><br class="Apple-interchange-newline" style="caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family: Verdana; font-size: 14px; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; text-decoration: none;"><br class="Apple-interchange-newline"></div>
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