<html><head><meta http-equiv="Content-Type" content="text/html; charset=utf-8"></head><body style="word-wrap: break-word; -webkit-nbsp-mode: space; line-break: after-white-space;" class=""><div style="font-variant-ligatures: normal; orphans: 2; widows: 2; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; color: rgb(32, 33, 36);" class=""><a href="https://news.google.com/articles/CBMiRmh0dHBzOi8vd3d3Lndhc2hpbmd0b25wb3N0LmNvbS93ZWF0aGVyLzIwMjAvMDUvMDQvaHVtYW4tY2xpbWF0ZS1uaWNoZS_SAVVodHRwczovL3d3dy53YXNoaW5ndG9ucG9zdC5jb20vd2VhdGhlci8yMDIwLzA1LzA0L2h1bWFuLWNsaW1hdGUtbmljaGUvP291dHB1dFR5cGU9YW1w?hl=en-US&gl=US&ceid=US%3Aen" target="_blank" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://news.google.com/articles/CBMiRmh0dHBzOi8vd3d3Lndhc2hpbmd0b25wb3N0LmNvbS93ZWF0aGVyLzIwMjAvMDUvMDQvaHVtYW4tY2xpbWF0ZS1uaWNoZS_SAVVodHRwczovL3d3dy53YXNoaW5ndG9ucG9zdC5jb20vd2VhdGhlci8yMDIwLzA1LzA0L2h1bWFuLWNsaW1hdGUtbmljaGUvP291dHB1dFR5cGU9YW1w?hl%3Den-US%26gl%3DUS%26ceid%3DUS%253Aen&source=gmail&ust=1588716530434000&usg=AFQjCNGkXxuZfKgi6N6ZPDOlBgOIf-QfXw" style="color: rgb(17, 85, 204); font-size: 11px;" class="">Global warming to push billions outside climate range that has sustained society for 6,000 years, study finds<span style="font-kerning: none;" class=""></span></a></div><div style="font-variant-ligatures: normal; orphans: 2; widows: 2; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; color: rgb(32, 33, 36);" class=""><span style="-webkit-font-kerning: none; font-size: 11px;" class="">The narrow climate range that humanity has preferred for 6000 years is shifting poleward.</span></div><div style="font-variant-ligatures: normal; orphans: 2; widows: 2; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; color: rgb(32, 33, 36);" class=""><span style="-webkit-font-kerning: none; font-size: 11px;" class="">Washington Post</span></div><div style="font-variant-ligatures: normal; orphans: 2; widows: 2; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; color: rgb(32, 33, 36);" class=""><span style="-webkit-font-kerning: none; font-size: 11px;" class="">2 hours ago</span></div><div style="font-variant-ligatures: normal; orphans: 2; widows: 2; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; color: rgb(26, 115, 232); min-height: 14px;" class=""><span style="font-size: 11px;" class=""><span style="font-kerning: none;" class=""></span><br class=""></span></div><div style="font-variant-ligatures: normal; orphans: 2; widows: 2; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; color: rgb(32, 33, 36);" class=""><span style="-webkit-font-kerning: none; font-size: 11px;" class=""><a href="https://news.google.com/articles/CAIiELmIU9x9J2v3zxusd38MQz8qGQgEKhAIACoHCAowjsP7CjCSpPQCMM_b5QU?hl=en-US&gl=US&ceid=US%3Aen" target="_blank" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://news.google.com/articles/CAIiELmIU9x9J2v3zxusd38MQz8qGQgEKhAIACoHCAowjsP7CjCSpPQCMM_b5QU?hl%3Den-US%26gl%3DUS%26ceid%3DUS%253Aen&source=gmail&ust=1588716530435000&usg=AFQjCNHb1ZcufjhJ6cQx8x3kfoEv4ICLmA" style="color: rgb(17, 85, 204);" class="">Unsuitable for 'human life to flourish': Up to 3B will live in extreme heat by 2070, study warns<span style="font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal;" class=""></span></a></span></div><div style="font-variant-ligatures: normal; orphans: 2; widows: 2; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; color: rgb(32, 33, 36);" class=""><span style="-webkit-font-kerning: none; font-size: 11px;" class="">By 2070, up to 3 billion people are likely to live in climate conditions that are "warmer than conditions deemed suitable for human life to flourish."</span></div><div style="font-variant-ligatures: normal; orphans: 2; widows: 2; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; color: rgb(32, 33, 36);" class=""><span style="-webkit-font-kerning: none; font-size: 11px;" class=""><a href="https://news.google.com/publications/CAAqBwgKMI7D-wowkqT0Ag?hl=en-US&gl=US&ceid=US%3Aen" target="_blank" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://news.google.com/publications/CAAqBwgKMI7D-wowkqT0Ag?hl%3Den-US%26gl%3DUS%26ceid%3DUS%253Aen&source=gmail&ust=1588716530435000&usg=AFQjCNHq-XDrrgOkohm5OG3Oqt5WrNWZGw" style="color: rgb(17, 85, 204);" class="">USA TODAY<span style="font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal;" class=""></span></a></span></div><div style="font-variant-ligatures: normal; orphans: 2; widows: 2; margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; color: rgb(32, 33, 36); background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);" class=""><span style="font-size: 11px;" class="">2 hours ago</span></div><div style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: small; font-variant-ligatures: normal; orphans: 2; widows: 2; margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; color: rgb(32, 33, 36); background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);" class=""><br class=""></div><div style="font-variant-ligatures: normal; orphans: 2; widows: 2; margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; color: rgb(32, 33, 36); background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);" class=""><div style="color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-variant-ligatures: normal;" class=""><span style="color: rgb(51, 51, 51);" class="">PNAS first published May 4, 2020 </span></div><div style="font-variant-ligatures: normal; margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; color: rgb(0, 90, 150);" class=""><a href="https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1910114117" target="_blank" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1910114117&source=gmail&ust=1588716530355000&usg=AFQjCNEWN7UrmdHgCN_hEPjymIgdquuwJw" style="color: rgb(17, 85, 204);" class="">https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.<wbr class="">1910114117<span style="color: rgb(0, 90, 150);" class=""></span></a></div><div style="font-variant-ligatures: normal; margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; color: rgb(0, 90, 150); min-height: 16px;" class=""><br class=""></div><div style="color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-variant-ligatures: normal; margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal;" class=""><b class="">Future of the human climate niche</b></div><div style="font-variant-ligatures: normal; margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; color: rgb(51, 51, 51);" class="">Chi Xu, Timothy A. Kohler, Timothy M. Lenton, Jens-Christian Svenning, and Marten Scheffer</div><div style="font-variant-ligatures: normal; margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); min-height: 16px;" class=""><br class=""></div><div style="font-variant-ligatures: normal; margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; color: rgb(17, 17, 17);" class=""><b class="">Significance</b></div><p style="font-variant-ligatures: normal; margin: 0px 0px 22.5px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; color: rgb(51, 51, 51);" class="">We show that for thousands of years, humans have concentrated in a surprisingly narrow subset of Earth’s available climates, characterized by mean annual temperatures around <span style="font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal;" class="">∼</span>13 °C. This distribution likely reflects a human temperature niche related to fundamental constraints. We demonstrate that depending on scenarios of population growth and warming, over the coming 50 y, 1 to 3 billion people are projected to be left outside the climate conditions that have served humanity well over the past 6,000 y. Absent climate mitigation or migration, a substantial part of humanity will be exposed to mean annual temperatures warmer than nearly anywhere today.</p><p style="font-variant-ligatures: normal; margin: 0px 0px 24px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; color: rgb(17, 17, 17);" class=""><b class="">Abstract</b></p><p style="font-variant-ligatures: normal; margin: 0px 0px 22.5px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; color: rgb(51, 51, 51);" class="">All species have an environmental niche, and despite technological advances, humans are unlikely to be an exception. Here, we demonstrate that for millennia, human populations have resided in the same narrow part of the climatic envelope available on the globe, characterized by a major mode around <span style="font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal;" class="">∼</span>11 °C to 15 °C mean annual temperature (MAT). Supporting the fundamental nature of this temperature niche, current production of crops and livestock is largely limited to the same conditions, and the same optimum has been found for agricultural and nonagricultural economic output of countries through analyses of year-to-year variation. We show that in a business-as-usual climate change scenario, the geographical position of this temperature niche is projected to shift more over the coming 50 y than it has moved since 6000 BP. Populations will not simply track the shifting climate, as adaptation in situ may address some of the challenges, and many other factors affect decisions to migrate. Nevertheless, in the absence of migration, one third of the global population is projected to experience a MAT >29 °C currently found in only 0.8% of the Earth’s land surface, mostly concentrated in the Sahara. As the potentially most affected regions are among the poorest in the world, where adaptive capacity is low, enhancing human development in those areas should be a priority alongside climate mitigation.</p><div style="color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-variant-ligatures: normal;" class=""><div dir="auto" style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0); overflow-wrap: break-word;" class=""><div dir="auto" style="overflow-wrap: break-word;" class=""><div dir="auto" style="overflow-wrap: break-word;" class=""><div dir="auto" style="overflow-wrap: break-word;" class=""><div dir="auto" style="overflow-wrap: break-word;" class=""><div class=""><div style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal;" class=""><div class=""><div style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; font-size: 12px; line-height: normal;" class="">2004</div><div style="font-family: Verdana; font-size: 12px; margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal;" class="">==============================<wbr class="">=====</div><div style="font-family: Verdana; font-size: 12px; margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal;" class=""><br class=""></div><div style="font-family: Verdana; font-size: 12px; margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal;" class=""> More Intense, More Frequent, and Longer Lasting Heat Waves in the 21st Century<b class="">. </b></div><div style="font-family: Verdana; font-size: 12px; margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; min-height: 15px;" class=""><b class=""></b><br class=""></div><div style="font-family: Verdana; font-size: 12px; margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal;" class="">Gerald A. Meehl and Claudia Tebaldi. </div><div style="font-family: Verdana; font-size: 12px; margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal;" class=""><i class="">Science</i>, 13 AUGUST 2004</div><div style="font-family: Verdana; font-size: 12px; margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal;" class=""><br class=""></div><div style="font-family: Verdana; font-size: 12px; margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal;" class="">2008</div><div style="font-family: Verdana; font-size: 12px; margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal;" class="">==============================<wbr class="">==</div><div style="font-family: Verdana; font-size: 12px; margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal;" class=""><div style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal;" class=""><br class=""></div><div style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal;" class="">"All organisms live within a limited range of body temperatures …. Direct effects of climatic warming can be understood through fatal decrements in an organism's performance in growth, reproduction, foraging, immune competence, behaviors and competitiveness."</div><div style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; min-height: 15px;" class=""> <br class=""></div><div style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal;" class="">Hans O. Pörtner and Anthony P. Farrell. Physiology and Climate Change. </div><div style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal;" class=""><i class="">SCIENCE</i> 31 OCTOBER 2008 VOL 322</div><div style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal;" class=""><br class=""></div><div style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal;" class="">2009</div><div style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal;" class="">==============================<wbr class="">====</div></div><div style="font-family: Verdana; font-size: 12px; margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal;" class="">"Observed heat wave intensities in the current decade are larger than worst-case projections."</div><div style="font-family: Verdana; font-size: 12px; margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; min-height: 15px;" class=""><br class=""></div><div style="font-family: Verdana; font-size: 12px; margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal;" class="">Auroop R. Gangulya, et al. Higher trends but larger uncertainty and geographic variability in 21<sup class="">st</sup> century temperature and heat waves. </div><div style="font-family: Verdana; font-size: 12px; margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal;" class=""><i class="">PNAS</i>, September 15, 2009.</div></div><div style="font-family: Verdana; font-size: 14px;" class=""><br class=""></div><div style="font-family: Verdana; font-size: 14px;" class=""><span style="font-size: 12px;" class="">2013</span><br class=""><div class=""><div dir="auto" style="overflow-wrap: break-word;" class=""><div style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; font-size: 12px; line-height: normal;" class="">==============================<wbr class="">===</div><div style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; font-size: 12px; line-height: normal;" class="">“ … organisms have a physiological response to temperature, and these responses have important consequences …. biological rates and times (e.g., growth, reproduction, mortality and activity) vary with temperature.”</div><div style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; font-size: 12px; line-height: normal; min-height: 15px;" class=""> <br class=""></div><div style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; font-size: 12px; line-height: normal;" class="">Anthony I. Dell, Samraat Pawar and Van M. Savage, Temperature dependence of trophic interactions are driven by asymmetry of species responses and foraging strategy.</div><div style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; font-size: 12px; line-height: normal;" class=""><i class="">Journal of Animal Ecology</i> 2013 </div><div style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; font-size: 12px; line-height: normal;" class=""> </div><div style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; font-size: 12px; line-height: normal;" class="">1970 </div><div style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; font-size: 12px; line-height: normal;" class="">=========================</div><div style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; font-size: 12px; line-height: normal;" class="">“What can be said with some assurance is that there is a unique and nearly ubiquitous compound, with the empirical formula<b class=""> H</b>(2960)<b class="">O</b>(1480)<b class="">C</b>(1480)<b class="">N</b><wbr class="">(16)<b class="">P</b>(1.8)<b class="">S</b>, called living matter. Its synthesis, on an oxidized and uncarboxylated earth, is the most intricate feat of chemical engineering ever performed - and the most delicate operation that people have ever tampered with.”</div><div style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; font-size: 12px; line-height: normal; min-height: 15px;" class=""><br class=""></div><div style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; font-size: 12px; line-height: normal;" class="">Edward S. Deevey, Jr. Mineral Cycles. </div><div style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; font-size: 12px; line-height: normal;" class=""><i class="">Scientific American</i>, September 1970.</div><div class=""><br class=""></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></body></html>