<html><head><meta http-equiv="Content-Type" content="text/html; charset=utf-8"></head><body style="word-wrap: break-word; -webkit-nbsp-mode: space; line-break: after-white-space;" class=""><div style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);" class=""><span style="font-kerning: none" class=""><b class="">“The growth in CO2 emissions closely follows the growth in Gross Domestic Product (GDP) corrected for improvements in energy efficiency.”</b></span></div><div style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; min-height: 17px;" class=""><span style="font-kerning: none" class=""></span><br class=""></div><div style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);" class=""><span style="font-kerning: none" class="">P. Friedlingstein, et al. “Update on CO2 emissions.” </span></div><div style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);" class=""><span style="font-kerning: none" class=""><i class="">Nature Geoscience. </i>Published online: 21 November 2010</span></div><div style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); min-height: 17px;" class=""><span style="font-kerning: none" class=""></span><br class=""></div><div style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; color: rgb(251, 2, 7);" class=""><span style="font-kerning: none" class="">—————————————————————</span></div><div style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; min-height: 17px;" class=""><span style="font-kerning: none" class=""></span><br class=""></div><div style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);" class=""><span style="font-kerning: none" class=""><b class="">“Changes in world GDP (WGDP) have a significant effect on CO2 concentrations, so that years of above-trend WGDP are years of greater rise of CO2 concentrations.”</b></span></div><div style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; min-height: 17px;" class=""><span style="font-kerning: none" class=""><b class=""></b></span><br class=""></div><div style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);" class=""><span style="font-kerning: none" class="">Granados et al. Climate change and the world economy: short-run determinants of atmospheric CO2. <i class="">Environmental science & policy</i> 21 (2012) 50–62</span></div><div style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); min-height: 17px;" class=""><span style="font-kerning: none" class=""></span><br class=""></div><div style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; color: rgb(251, 2, 7); background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);" class=""><span style="font-kerning: none" class="">—————————————————————</span></div><div style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; color: rgb(251, 2, 7); min-height: 17px;" class=""><span style="font-kerning: none" class=""></span><br class=""></div><div style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; color: rgb(24, 25, 27);" class=""><span style="font-kerning: none; background-color: #ffffff" class=""><b class="">Consumer spending is the largest component of Gross Domestic Product (GDP)</b> and the target of Keynesian fiscal and monetary policy in macroeconomics. Other economists, sometimes known as supply-siders, accept Say's Law of Markets and believe private savings and production are more important than aggregate consumption.</span><span style="font-kerning: none; color: #5d6267; background-color: #ffffff" class="">Aug 11, 2021</span></div><div style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; color: rgb(19, 0, 155); min-height: 17px;" class=""><span style="font-kerning: none" class=""><a href="https://www.investopedia.com/terms/c/consumer-spending.asp" class=""></a></span><br class=""></div><div style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; color: rgb(19, 0, 155); background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);" class=""><span style="font-kerning: none" class=""><a href="https://www.investopedia.com/terms/c/consumer-spending.asp" class="">Consumer Spending Definition - Investopedia</a></span></div><div style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; color: rgb(19, 0, 155); background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);" class=""><br class=""></div><div style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);" class=""><font color="#ff2600" class="">—————————————————————</font></div><div style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);" class=""><font color="#ff2600" class=""><br style="caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);" class=""></font><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0); caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);" class=""><b class="">"The big challenge is still to deliver emissions reductions at the pace and scale needed, especially in a world where economies are driven by consumption.”</b></span><br style="caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); color: rgb(0, 0, 0);" class=""><br style="caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); color: rgb(0, 0, 0);" class=""><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0); caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);" class="">Sonja van Renssen.The inconvenient truth of failed climate policies. Nature Climate Change MAY 2018</span><br style="caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); color: rgb(0, 0, 0);" class=""><br style="caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); color: rgb(0, 0, 0);" class=""><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0); caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);" class="">Published online: 27 April 2018 <a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-018-0155-4" class="">https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-018-0155-4</a> </span><br style="caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); color: rgb(0, 0, 0);" class=""></div><div style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);" class=""><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0); caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);" class=""><br class=""></span></div><div style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);" class=""><span style="caret-color: rgb(251, 2, 7); color: rgb(251, 2, 7);" class="">—————————————————————</span></div><div style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);" class=""><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0); caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);" class=""><br class=""></span></div><div style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);" class=""><div style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; color: rgb(9, 79, 209);" class=""><span style="caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); color: rgb(0, 0, 0);" class=""><b class="">“The US economy is based on debt-financed overconsumption, while China’s is based on debt-financed overinvestment.”</b></span><br style="caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); color: rgb(0, 0, 0);" class=""><br style="caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); color: rgb(0, 0, 0);" class=""><span style="caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); color: rgb(0, 0, 0);" class="">South China Morning Post (Hong Kong)</span><br style="caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); color: rgb(0, 0, 0);" class=""><span style="caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); color: rgb(0, 0, 0);" class=""><<<a href="https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3040618/federal-reserve-prolonging-trade-war-keeping-biggest-financial" class="">https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3040618/federal-reserve-prolonging-trade-war-keeping-biggest-financial</a>>></span></div><div style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; color: rgb(19, 0, 155); min-height: 17px;" class=""><span style="-webkit-font-kerning: none;" class=""></span><br class=""></div><div style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; color: rgb(251, 2, 7);" class=""><span style="-webkit-font-kerning: none;" class="">—————————————————————</span></div></div><div style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; color: rgb(19, 0, 155); background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);" class=""><br class=""></div><div style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);" class=""><div style="caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);"><font color="#ff2600" class=""><br class=""></font></div><div style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0); caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);"><b class="">“Conservationists are unquestionably useful people. And among the many useful services that they have rendered has been that of dramatizing the vast appetite the United States has developed for materials of all kinds.”<br class=""></b><br class="">“But what of the appetite itself? Surely this is the ultimate source of the problem. If it continues its geometric course, will it not one day have to be restrained? Yet in the literature of the resource problem this is the forbidden question. Over it hangs a nearly total silence. It is as though, in the discussion of the chance for avoiding automobile accidents, we agree not to make any mention of speed!”<br class=""><br class="">John K. Galbraith. “How much should a country consume?”<br class=""><br class="">In Jarrett, Henry (editor), Perspectives on Conservation. <br class=""><br class="">John Hopkins Press. 1958</div><div style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0); caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);"><a href="http://www.preservenet.com/flexibleworktime/GalbraithHowMuchShouldACountryConsume.html" class="">http://www.preservenet.com/flexibleworktime/GalbraithHowMuchShouldACountryConsume.html</a></div></div><div style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; color: rgb(19, 0, 155); background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); min-height: 17px;" class=""><span style="font-kerning: none" class=""></span><br class=""></div><div style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; color: rgb(251, 2, 7); background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);" class=""><span style="font-kerning: none" class="">—————————————————————</span></div><div style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; color: rgb(251, 2, 7); background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);" class=""><br class=""></div><div style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; color: rgb(251, 2, 7);" class=""><span style="-webkit-font-kerning: none;" class=""><div style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; color: rgb(17, 17, 17);" class=""><span style="-webkit-font-kerning: none;" class=""><b class="">A recent Ambio article by some heavyweights in climate sets out the situation well enough. </b></span></div><div style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; color: rgb(17, 17, 17); min-height: 15px;" class=""><span style="-webkit-font-kerning: none;" class=""></span><br class=""></div><div style="caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; color: rgb(17, 17, 17);" class=""><span style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);" class=""><span style="-webkit-font-kerning: none;" class="">A team including the likes of Will Steffen, Paul Crutzen, Veerabhadren Ramathan, Johan Rockstrom, Marten Scheffer and Hans Joachim Schellnhuber begin the <a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3357752/" class=""><span style="-webkit-font-kerning: none; color: rgb(51, 51, 51);" class="">abstract of their article</span></a> by saying </span><span style="-webkit-font-kerning: none;" class="">“Over the past century, the total material wealth of humanity has been enhanced …” </span></span></div><div style="caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; color: rgb(17, 17, 17); min-height: 15px;" class=""><span style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);" class=""><span style="-webkit-font-kerning: none;" class=""></span><br class=""></span></div><div style="caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; color: rgb(17, 17, 17);" class=""><span style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);" class=""><span style="-webkit-font-kerning: none;" class="">They end it saying</span><span style="-webkit-font-kerning: none;" class="">,“we risk driving the Earth System onto a trajectory toward more hostile states from which we cannot easily return.”</span></span></div><div style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; color: rgb(17, 17, 17); min-height: 15px;" class=""><span style="-webkit-font-kerning: none;" class=""></span></div><div style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; color: rgb(17, 17, 17); min-height: 15px;" class=""><span style="-webkit-font-kerning: none;" class=""></span><br class=""></div><div style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; color: rgb(4, 51, 255);" class=""><span style="text-decoration: underline;" class=""><a href="https://mountainjournal.org/why-rising-temps-mean-the-end-of-the-world-as-we-know-it" class="">https://mountainjournal.org/why-rising-temps-mean-the-end-of-the-world-as-we-know-it</a></span></div><div style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-size: 12px; margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; color: rgb(4, 51, 255);" class=""><span style="text-decoration: underline;" class=""><br class=""></span></div><div style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-size: 12px; margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; color: rgb(4, 51, 255);" class=""><span style="text-decoration: underline;" class=""><br class=""></span></div><div style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-size: 12px; margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; color: rgb(4, 51, 255);" class=""><span style="caret-color: rgb(251, 2, 7); color: rgb(251, 2, 7); font-size: 14px;" class="">—————————————————————</span></div><div style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-size: 12px; margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; color: rgb(4, 51, 255);" class=""><br class=""></div><div style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-size: 12px; margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; color: rgb(4, 51, 255);" class=""><br class=""></div></span></div><div style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; color: rgb(77, 80, 85);" class=""><span style="font-kerning: none; color: #18191b; background-color: #ffffff" class=""><a href="https://www.bls.gov/opub/mlr/2002/11/art2full.pdf" class="">https://www.bls.gov<span style="font-kerning: none; color: #4d5055" class=""> › opub › mlr › 2002/11</span></a></span></div><div style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; color: rgb(60, 64, 68);" class=""><span style="font-kerning: none; background-color: #ffffff" class="">PDF</span></div><div style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; color: rgb(60, 64, 68); background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);" class=""><span style="font-kerning: none; color: #5d6267" class="">by M Toossi · 2002 · Cited by 29 —<b class=""> </b></span><b class=""><span style="font-kerning: none" class="">In 2000, employment generated by consumer spending was 83.2 million, accounting for 62 percent of total employment in the </span><span style="font-kerning: none; color: #4d5055" class="">economy</span><span style="font-kerning: none" class="">. </span><span style="font-kerning: none; color: #4d5055" class="">Consumer spending</span><span style="font-kerning: none" class=""> is ...</span></b></div><div style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; color: rgb(93, 98, 103); min-height: 17px;" class=""><span style="font-kerning: none" class=""></span><br class=""></div><div style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; color: rgb(251, 2, 7); background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);" class=""><span style="font-kerning: none" class="">—————————————————————</span></div><div style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; color: rgb(251, 2, 7); background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); min-height: 17px;" class=""><span style="font-kerning: none" class=""></span><br class=""></div><div style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; color: rgb(19, 0, 155); background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);" class=""><span style="font-kerning: none" class=""><a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2021/04/29/business/gdp-economy-consumer-spending.html" class="">Consumer Spending Drove Economic Recovery in First Quarter</a></span></div><div style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; color: rgb(77, 80, 85);" class=""><span style="font-kerning: none; color: #18191b; background-color: #ffffff" class=""><a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2021/04/29/business/gdp-economy-consumer-spending.html" class="">https://www.nytimes.com<span style="font-kerning: none; color: #4d5055" class=""> › 2021/04/29 › business › gdp-...</span></a></span></div><div style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; color: rgb(24, 25, 27); min-height: 17px;" class=""><span style="font-kerning: none" class=""></span><br class=""></div><div style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; color: rgb(60, 64, 68); background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);" class=""><span style="font-kerning: none; color: #5d6267" class="">Jul 29, 2021 — </span><b class=""><span style="font-kerning: none" class="">The first-quarter </span><span style="font-kerning: none; color: #4d5055" class="">economic</span><span style="font-kerning: none" class=""> recovery, when the </span><span style="font-kerning: none; color: #4d5055" class="">economy</span><span style="font-kerning: none" class=""> expanded 1.6 percent, was powered by </span><span style="font-kerning: none; color: #4d5055" class="">spending</span><span style="font-kerning: none" class="">. Specifically, by </span><span style="font-kerning: none; color: #4d5055" class="">spending</span><span style="font-kerning: none" class=""> on stuff.</span></b></div><div style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; color: rgb(60, 64, 68); background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); min-height: 17px;" class=""><span style="font-kerning: none" class=""><b class=""></b></span><br class=""></div><div style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; color: rgb(251, 2, 7); background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);" class=""><span style="font-kerning: none" class="">—————————————————————</span></div><div style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; color: rgb(60, 64, 68); background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); min-height: 17px;" class=""><span style="font-kerning: none" class=""><b class=""></b></span><br class=""></div><div style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; color: rgb(24, 25, 27);" class=""><span style="font-kerning: none; background-color: #ffffff" class="">Individuals are responsible <b class="">for thinking about their impact on the environment</b> and, when possible, minimize the damage they do to the planet. Everyone needs to turn on the lights at night, start the shower in the morning, turn on the air conditioning and possibly drive somewhere on Mother's Day.</span><span style="font-kerning: none; color: #5d6267; background-color: #ffffff" class="">May 10, 2021</span></div><div style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; color: rgb(19, 0, 155); min-height: 17px;" class=""><span style="font-kerning: none" class=""><a href="https://news.climate.columbia.edu/2021/05/10/the-role-of-individual-responsibility-in-the-transition-to-environmental-sustainability/#:~:text=Individuals%20are%20responsible%20for%20thinking,drive%20somewhere%20on%20Mother's%20Day." class=""></a></span><br class=""></div><div style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; color: rgb(19, 0, 155);" class=""><span style="font-kerning: none; background-color: #ffffff" class=""><a href="https://news.climate.columbia.edu/2021/05/10/the-role-of-individual-responsibility-in-the-transition-to-environmental-sustainability/#:~:text=Individuals%20are%20responsible%20for%20thinking,drive%20somewhere%20on%20Mother's%20Day." class="">The Role of Individual Responsibility in the Transition to ...<span style="font-kerning: none; color: #13009b" class=""></span></a></span></div><div style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); min-height: 17px;" class=""><span style="font-kerning: none" class=""></span><br class=""></div><div style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; color: rgb(251, 2, 7); background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);" class=""><span style="font-kerning: none" class="">—————————————————————</span></div><div style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; color: rgb(19, 0, 155); min-height: 17px;" class=""><span style="font-kerning: none" class=""><a href="https://www.sierraclub.org/sierra/yes-actually-individual-responsibility-essential-solving-climate-crisis" class=""></a></span><br class=""></div><div style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; color: rgb(19, 0, 155); background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);" class=""><span style="font-kerning: none" class=""><a href="https://www.sierraclub.org/sierra/yes-actually-individual-responsibility-essential-solving-climate-crisis" class="">Yes, Actually, Individual Responsibility Is Essential to Solving ...</a></span></div><div style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; color: rgb(77, 80, 85);" class=""><span style="font-kerning: none; color: #18191b; background-color: #ffffff" class=""><a href="https://www.sierraclub.org/sierra/yes-actually-individual-responsibility-essential-solving-climate-crisis" class="">https://www.sierraclub.org<span style="font-kerning: none; color: #4d5055" class=""> › sierra › yes-actually-indivi...</span></a></span></div><div style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; color: rgb(24, 25, 27); min-height: 17px;" class=""><span style="font-kerning: none" class=""></span><br class=""></div><div style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; color: rgb(60, 64, 68); background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);" class=""><span style="font-kerning: none; color: #5d6267" class="">Nov 26, 2019 — </span><span style="font-kerning: none" class="">Yes, it's true that taking </span><span style="font-kerning: none; color: #4d5055" class=""><b class="">personal responsibility</b></span><span style="font-kerning: none" class=""> for </span><span style="font-kerning: none; color: #4d5055" class=""><b class="">climate change</b></span><span style="font-kerning: none" class=""> is insufficient to address the crisis; <b class="">and it's equally true that </b>...</span></div><div style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; color: rgb(251, 2, 7); background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); min-height: 17px;" class=""><span style="font-kerning: none" class=""></span><br class=""></div><div style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; color: rgb(251, 2, 7); background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);" class=""><span style="font-kerning: none" class="">—————————————————————</span></div><div style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; color: rgb(251, 2, 7); background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); min-height: 17px;" class=""><span style="font-kerning: none" class=""></span><br class=""></div><div style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; color: rgb(16, 60, 192); background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);" class=""><span style="font-kerning: none; color: #000000" class="">Nature Climate Change <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-021-01170-y#article-info" class=""><span style="-webkit-font-kerning: none; color: rgb(16, 60, 192);" class="">Published: 28 October 2021</span></a></span></div><div style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; color: rgb(20, 20, 20); background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);" class=""><span style="font-kerning: none" class=""><b class="">A systematic global stocktake of evidence on human adaptation to climate change</b></span></div>
<ul style="list-style-type: none" class="">
<li style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; color: rgb(13, 63, 116); background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);" class=""><span style="color: #103cc0" class=""><a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-021-01170-y#auth-Lea-Berrang_Ford" class=""><span style="-webkit-font-kerning: none;" class="">Lea Berrang-Ford</span></a></span><span style="font-kerning: none; color: #141414" class="">, <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-021-01170-y#auth-A__R_-Siders" class=""><span style="-webkit-font-kerning: none; color: rgb(13, 63, 116);" class="">A. R. Siders</span></a>, </span><span style="text-decoration: underline ; font-kerning: none" class="">[…]<a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-021-01170-y#auth-Thelma_Zulfawu-Abu" class=""><span style="-webkit-font-kerning: none; color: rgb(13, 63, 116);" class="">Thelma Zulfawu Abu</span></a></span><span style="font-kerning: none; color: #141414" class=""> </span></li>
<li style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; color: rgb(13, 63, 116); min-height: 17px;" class=""></li>
</ul><div style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; color: rgb(20, 20, 20); background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);" class=""><span style="font-kerning: none" class=""><b class="">Abstract</b></span></div><p style="margin: 0px 0px 28px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; color: rgb(20, 20, 20); background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);" class=""><span style="font-kerning: none" class="">Assessing global progress on human adaptation to climate change is an urgent priority. Although the literature on adaptation to climate change is rapidly expanding, little is known about the actual extent of implementation. We systematically screened >48,000 articles using machine learning methods and a global network of 126 researchers. Our synthesis of the resulting 1,682 articles presents a systematic and comprehensive global stocktake of implemented human adaptation to climate change. </span><span style="font-kerning: none; background-color: #ffff0f" class="">Documented adaptations were largely fragmented, local and incremental, with limited evidence of transformational adaptation and negligible evidence of risk reduction outcomes.</span><span style="font-kerning: none" class=""> We identify eight priorities for global adaptation research: assess the effectiveness of adaptation responses, enhance the understanding of limits to adaptation, enable </span><span style="font-kerning: none; background-color: #ffff0a" class="">individuals and </span><span style="font-kerning: none" class="">civil society to adapt, include missing places, scholars and scholarship, understand private sector responses, improve methods for synthesizing different forms of evidence, assess the adaptation at different temperature thresholds, and improve the inclusion of timescale and the dynamics of responses.</span></p><div style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; color: rgb(20, 20, 20); background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);" class=""><span style="font-kerning: none" class=""><b class="">Excerpt from news release</b></span></div><p style="margin: 0px 0px 28px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; color: rgb(29, 29, 29); background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);" class=""><span style="font-kerning: none; color: #141414" class="">“</span><span style="font-kerning: none" class="">We found that all over the world, in almost every sector, people are taking action to adapt to climate change, and that's really encouraging. Less encouraging is that the actions people are taking tend to be fragmented, representing small adjustments to business-as-usual rather than the type of transformation that may be needed. For example, in response to warmer temperatures, farmers are planting crops earlier and people are using air conditioning when it's hot. This raises a concern about whether what we're doing is enough to deal with the [expected] effects of climate change.</span></p><div style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; color: rgb(29, 29, 29); background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);" class=""><span style="font-kerning: none" class=""><b class="">Full release</b></span></div><p style="margin: 0px 0px 28px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; color: rgb(16, 60, 192); background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);" class=""><span style="text-decoration: underline ; font-kerning: none" class=""><a href="https://www.eurekalert.org/news-releases/933172" class="">https://www.eurekalert.org/news-releases/933172<span style="-webkit-font-kerning: none; color: rgb(16, 60, 192);" class=""></span></a></span></p><div style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; color: rgb(251, 2, 7); background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);" class=""><span style="font-kerning: none" class="">————————————————————</span></div><div style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; color: rgb(251, 2, 7); background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); min-height: 17px;" class=""><span style="font-kerning: none" class=""></span><br class=""></div><div style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; color: rgb(38, 38, 38);" class=""><span style="font-kerning: none; background-color: #ffffff" class=""><a href="https://www.eurekalert.org/news-releases/932034" class="">19-Oct-2021<span style="font-kerning: none; color: #262626" class=""></span></a></span></div><div style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; color: rgb(38, 38, 38);" class=""><span style="font-kerning: none; background-color: #ffffff" class=""><a href="https://www.eurekalert.org/news-releases/932034" class="">Europeans want climate action but show little appetite for radical lifestyle change -– new polling<span style="font-kerning: none; color: #262626" class=""></span></a></span></div><div style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; color: rgb(125, 125, 125);" class=""><span style="font-kerning: none; background-color: #ffffff" class=""><a href="https://www.eurekalert.org/news-releases/932034" class="">UNIVERSITY OF CAMBRIDGE<span style="font-kerning: none; color: #7d7d7d" class=""></span></a></span></div><div style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; color: rgb(125, 125, 125); background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);" class=""><span style="font-kerning: none" class=""><a href="https://www.eurekalert.org/news-releases/932034" class="">REPORTS AND PROCEEDINGS</a></span></div><div style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; color: rgb(38, 38, 38); min-height: 17px;" class=""><span style="font-kerning: none" class=""><a href="https://www.eurekalert.org/news-releases/932034" class=""></a></span><br class=""></div><p style="margin: 0px 0px 10px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; color: rgb(63, 63, 63); background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);" class=""><span style="font-kerning: none" class=""><a href="https://www.eurekalert.org/news-releases/932034" class="">Europeans want urgent action on climate change but remain committed meat-eaters and question policy proposals such as banning the sale of new petrol vehicles after 2030, according to a new poll from the YouGov-Cambridge Centre for Public Opinion Research that surveyed environmental attitudes in seven European countries, including the UK.</a></span></p><div style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; color: rgb(251, 2, 7);" class="">—————————————————</div><div style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; color: rgb(251, 2, 7); min-height: 17px;" class=""><br class=""></div><div style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal;" class="">Journal of Cleaner Production <span style="-webkit-font-kerning: none;" class="">online 31 August 2020 </span></div><div style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal;" class=""><span style="font-kerning: none" class=""><a href="https://pure.rug.nl/ws/portalfiles/portal/154319253/1_s2.0_S0959652620340397_main.pdf" class="">https://pure.rug.nl/ws/portalfiles/portal/154319253/1_s2.0_S0959652620340397_main.pdf</a></span></div><div style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; min-height: 17px;" class=""><br class=""></div><div style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; min-height: 17px;" class=""><br class=""></div><div style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal;" class=""><span style="font-kerning: none" class=""><b class="">Household carbon inequality in the U.S. </b></span></div><div style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal;" class=""><span style="font-kerning: none" class="">Kuishuang Feng a , Klaus Hubacek b, * , Kaihui Song a </span></div><div style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; min-height: 17px;" class=""><span style="font-kerning: none" class=""></span><br class=""></div><div style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal;" class=""><span style="font-kerning: none" class="">a Department of Geographical Sciences, University of Maryland, College Park, MD, 20742, United States </span></div><div style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; min-height: 17px;" class=""><span style="font-kerning: none" class=""></span><br class=""></div><div style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal;" class=""><span style="font-kerning: none" class="">b Center for Energy and Environmental Sciences (IVEM), Energy and Sustainability Research Institute Groningen (ESRIG), University of Groningen, Groningen, 9747, AG, Netherlands </span></div><div style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; min-height: 17px;" class=""><span style="font-kerning: none" class=""></span><br class=""></div><div style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal;" class=""><span style="font-kerning: none" class=""><b class="">Keywords: </b>Inequality Consumption-based emissions Input-output analysis </span></div><div style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal;" class=""><span style="font-kerning: none" class=""> Household Consumption </span></div><div style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; min-height: 17px;" class=""><span style="font-kerning: none" class=""></span><br class=""></div><div style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal;" class=""><span style="font-kerning: none" class=""><b class="">Abstract </b></span></div><div style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; min-height: 17px;" class=""><span style="font-kerning: none" class=""></span><br class=""></div><div style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal;" class=""><span style="font-kerning: none; background-color: #ffff0a" class="">Household carbon emissions are mainly affected by income and other key demographic factors. Understanding the contribution of these factors<b class=""> can inform climate responsibilities </b>and potential demandside climate mitigation strategies. </span><span style="font-kerning: none" class="">By linking US consumer expenditure survey data with a nested national within a global multi-regional input-output model, this study estimates consumption-based GHG emissions for 9 income groups and assesses the carbon inequality in the US for 2015. Our results show that the per capita carbon footprint (CF) of the highest income group (>200 thousand USD per year) with 32.3 tons is about 2.6 times the per capita CF of the lowest income group (<15 thousand USD) with 12.3 tons. This is due to large gap in consumption volume and associated carbon emissions along the entire global production chain. Consumption pattern tends to narrow the gap in household per capita CF between income groups due to the lower carbon intensity per dollar spent by higher income groups.</span><span style="font-kerning: none; background-color: #ffffff" class=""> Another important factor influencing carbon footprints is household size and thus sharing of household equipment and other consumption items. The US average per capita CF is 18.1 tons compared to the global average of approximately 5 tons. The high carbon footprint across income groups in the US is </span><span style="font-kerning: none; background-color: #ffff0a" class="">largely due to the large contribution of emissions from heating and cooling and private transport, which reflects the settlement structure and lifestyles in the US, relying heavily on cars and living in larger houses.</span></div><div style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; color: rgb(63, 63, 63); min-height: 17px;" class=""><span style="font-kerning: none" class=""><a href="https://www.eurekalert.org/news-releases/932034" class=""></a></span><br class=""></div><div style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; color: rgb(251, 2, 7);" class=""><span style="font-kerning: none" class="">——————————————————————</span></div><div style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; color: rgb(26, 26, 26); min-height: 17px;" class=""><span style="font-kerning: none" class=""></span><br class=""></div><div style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; color: rgb(9, 79, 209);" class=""><span style="text-decoration: underline ; font-kerning: none" class=""><a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/journal/09218009" class="">Ecological Economics</a></span><span style="font-kerning: none; color: #303030" class=""> </span><span style="font-kerning: none; color: #1a1a1a" class="">February 2022</span></div><div style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; color: rgb(9, 79, 209);" class=""><span style="text-decoration: underline ; font-kerning: none" class=""><a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolecon.2021.107251" class="">https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolecon.2021.107251<span style="-webkit-font-kerning: none;" class=""></span></a></span></div><div style="margin: 0px; text-align: center; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; color: rgb(26, 26, 26); min-height: 17px;" class=""><span style="font-kerning: none" class=""></span><br class=""></div><div style="margin: 0px; text-align: right; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; color: rgb(26, 26, 26); min-height: 17px;" class=""><span style="font-kerning: none" class=""></span><br class=""></div><div style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; color: rgb(48, 48, 48);" class=""><span style="font-kerning: none" class=""><b class="">Expenditure elasticity and income elasticity of GHG emissions: A survey of literature on household carbon footprint</b></span></div><div style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; color: rgb(9, 79, 209);" class=""><span style="text-decoration: underline ; font-kerning: none" class=""><a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0921800921003104#!" class="">AntoninPottier<span style="-webkit-font-kerning: none;" class=""></span></a></span></div><div style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; color: rgb(26, 26, 26); min-height: 17px;" class=""><span style="font-kerning: none" class=""></span><br class=""></div><div style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; color: rgb(48, 48, 48);" class=""><span style="font-kerning: none" class=""><b class="">Abstract</b></span></div><div style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; color: rgb(26, 26, 26);" class=""><span style="font-kerning: none" class="">The relationship between a household's income and its <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/topics/economics-econometrics-and-finance/greenhouse-gas-emissions" class=""><span style="-webkit-font-kerning: none;" class="">carbon emissions</span></a> is often summed up by a number, the elasticity of the carbon footprint with respect to income.</span><span style="font-kerning: none; background-color: #ffff0f" class=""> I survey here the cross-sectional studies of household carbon footprints and their estimation of the elasticities with respect to <i class="">income</i> and with respect to <i class="">expenditures</i>. The difference between these two elasticities comes from the personal</span><span style="font-kerning: none" class=""> <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/topics/economics-econometrics-and-finance/propensity-to-save" class=""><span style="-webkit-font-kerning: none;" class="">saving rate's</span></a> increasing with income.</span></div><div style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; color: rgb(26, 26, 26); min-height: 17px;" class=""><span style="font-kerning: none" class=""></span><br class=""></div><div style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; color: rgb(26, 26, 26);" class=""><span style="font-kerning: none" class="">I compile published estimates of the elasticities of the carbon footprint or energy requirements, and compute new estimates. This amounts to around 80 estimates (one-third of which are newly computed) for over 20 countries. It is found that, generally, the carbon footprint grows less rapidly than expenditure, and confirms that the income elasticity is lower than the expenditure elasticity. Unambiguously, the assumption of an income elasticity equal to unity is not supported by the published literature.</span></div><div style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; color: rgb(26, 26, 26); min-height: 17px;" class=""><span style="font-kerning: none" class=""></span><br class=""></div><div style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; color: rgb(26, 26, 26);" class=""><span style="font-kerning: none; background-color: #ffff0a" class="">I discuss the difference between carbon <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/topics/economics-econometrics-and-finance/inequality" class=""><span style="-webkit-font-kerning: none; color: rgb(26, 26, 26);" class="">inequality</span></a> and carbon concentration,</span><span style="font-kerning: none" class=""> the ambiguity in the literature between income elasticity and expenditure elasticity. I present the limitations of our knowledge of the relationship between income and carbon footprint, from contestable assumptions in the methodology as well as measurement errors in household budget surveys. I examine how elasticity can be used in “top–down” assessment of the global distribution of carbon footprints.</span></div><div style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; color: rgb(26, 26, 26); min-height: 17px;" class=""><span style="font-kerning: none" class=""></span><br class=""></div><div style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; color: rgb(251, 2, 7);" class=""><span style="font-kerning: none" class="">—————————————————————</span></div><div style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); min-height: 17px;" class=""><span style="font-kerning: none" class=""></span><br class=""></div><div style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; color: rgb(9, 79, 209);" class=""><span style="text-decoration: underline ; font-kerning: none" class=""><a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/journal/09218009" class="">Ecological Economics</a></span><span style="font-kerning: none; color: #303030" class=""> </span><span style="font-kerning: none; color: #1a1a1a" class="">February 2022,</span></div><div style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; color: rgb(9, 79, 209);" class=""><span style="text-decoration: underline ; font-kerning: none" class=""><a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolecon.2021.107242" class="">https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolecon.2021.107242<span style="-webkit-font-kerning: none;" class=""></span></a></span></div><div style="margin: 0px; text-align: right; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; color: rgb(26, 26, 26); min-height: 17px;" class=""><span style="font-kerning: none" class=""></span><br class=""></div><div style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; color: rgb(77, 77, 77);" class=""><span style="font-kerning: none" class="">Analysis</span></div><div style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; color: rgb(48, 48, 48);" class=""><span style="font-kerning: none" class=""><b class="">Social tipping processes towards climate action: A conceptual framework</b></span></div><div style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; color: rgb(26, 26, 26); min-height: 17px;" class=""><span style="font-kerning: none" class=""></span><br class=""></div><div style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; color: rgb(9, 79, 209);" class=""><span style="text-decoration: underline ; font-kerning: none" class=""><a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0921800921003013#!" class="">RicardaWinkelmannab1Jonathan F.Dongesac1E. KeithSmithde1ManjanaMilkoreitf1ChristinaEderdJobstHeitziggAlexiaKatsanidoudhMarcWiedermanngNicoWunderlingabiTimothy M.Lentonj<span style="-webkit-font-kerning: none;" class=""></span></a></span></div><div style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; color: rgb(26, 26, 26); min-height: 17px;" class=""><span style="font-kerning: none" class=""></span><br class=""></div><div style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; color: rgb(48, 48, 48);" class=""><span style="font-kerning: none" class=""><b class="">Abstract</b></span></div><div style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; color: rgb(26, 26, 26);" class=""><span style="font-kerning: none" class="">Societal transformations are necessary to address critical global challenges, such as mitigation of anthropogenic climate change and reaching UN <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/topics/earth-and-planetary-sciences/environmental-impact-assessment" class=""><span style="-webkit-font-kerning: none;" class="">sustainable development</span></a> goals. </span><span style="font-kerning: none; background-color: #ffff0a" class="">Recently, social tipping processes have received increased attention, as they present a form of social change whereby</span><span style="font-kerning: none; background-color: #ffffff" class=""> a small change can shift a sensitive social system into a qualitatively different state due to strongly self-amplifying (mathematically positive) feedback mechanisms. Social tipping processes with respect to technological and energy systems, political mobilization, financial markets<b class=""> </b></span><span style="font-kerning: none; background-color: #ffff0a" class="">and sociocultural norms and behaviors </span><span style="font-kerning: none; background-color: #ffffff" class="">have been suggested as potential key drivers towards climate action.</span></div><div style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; color: rgb(26, 26, 26); min-height: 17px;" class=""><span style="font-kerning: none" class=""></span><br class=""></div><div style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; color: rgb(26, 26, 26);" class=""><span style="font-kerning: none" class="">Drawing from expert insights and comprehensive literature review, we develop a framework to identify and characterize social tipping processes critical to facilitating rapid social transformations. </span><span style="font-kerning: none; background-color: #ffff0a" class="">We find that social tipping processes are distinguishable from those of already more widely studied climate and ecological tipping dynamics.</span><span style="font-kerning: none" class=""> In particular, we identify human agency, social-institutional network structures, different spatial and temporal scales and increased complexity as key distinctive features underlying social tipping processes. </span></div><div style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; color: rgb(26, 26, 26); min-height: 17px;" class=""><span style="font-kerning: none" class=""></span><br class=""></div><div style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; color: rgb(26, 26, 26);" class=""><span style="font-kerning: none" class="">Building on these characteristics, we propose a formal definition for social tipping processes and filtering c</span><span style="font-kerning: none; background-color: #ffff0a" class="">riteria for those processes that could be decisive for future trajectories towards climate action. </span><span style="font-kerning: none; background-color: #ffffff" class="">We illustrate this definition with the European political system as an example of potential social tipping processes, highlighting the prospective role of the FridaysForFuture movement.</span></div><div style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; color: rgb(26, 26, 26); min-height: 17px;" class=""><span style="font-kerning: none" class=""></span><br class=""></div><div style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; color: rgb(26, 26, 26);" class=""><span style="font-kerning: none" class="">Accordingly, this conceptual framework for social tipping processes can be utilized to illuminate mechanisms for necessary transformative <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/topics/earth-and-planetary-sciences/climate-change-mitigation" class=""><span style="-webkit-font-kerning: none;" class="">climate change mitigation</span></a> policies and actions.</span></div><div style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; color: rgb(26, 26, 26); min-height: 17px;" class=""><span style="font-kerning: none" class=""></span><br class=""></div><div style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; color: rgb(251, 2, 7);" class=""><span style="font-kerning: none" class="">——————————————————————————</span></div><div style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; color: rgb(26, 26, 26); min-height: 17px;" class=""><span style="font-kerning: none" class=""></span><br class=""></div><div style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; color: rgb(201, 46, 57); background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);" class=""><span style="font-kerning: none; color: #020202" class="">Front. Environ. Sci., 19 August 2014 | <a href="https://doi.org/10.3389/fenvs.2014.00035" class=""><span style="font-kerning: none; color: #c92e39" class="">https://doi.org/10.3389/fenvs.2014.00035</span></a></span></div><div style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; color: rgb(201, 46, 57); background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); min-height: 17px;" class=""><span style="font-kerning: none" class=""></span><br class=""></div><div style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; color: rgb(201, 46, 57); background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);" class=""><span style="font-kerning: none" class=""><a href="https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fenvs.2014.00035/full" class="">https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fenvs.2014.00035/full</a></span></div><div style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; color: rgb(201, 46, 57); background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); min-height: 17px;" class=""><span style="font-kerning: none" class=""></span><br class=""></div><div style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; color: rgb(201, 46, 57); background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); min-height: 17px;" class=""><span style="font-kerning: none" class=""><b class=""></b></span><br class=""></div><div style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; color: rgb(2, 2, 2);" class=""><span style="font-kerning: none; background-color: #ffffff" class="">PERSPECTIVE article</span></div><div style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; color: rgb(47, 46, 49); min-height: 17px;" class=""><span style="font-kerning: none" class=""></span><br class=""></div><div style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; color: rgb(2, 2, 2);" class=""><span style="font-kerning: none; background-color: #ffffff" class=""><b class="">Social tipping points and Earth systems dynamics</b></span></div><div style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; color: rgb(2, 2, 2); background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);" class=""><span style="font-kerning: none" class=""><a href="https://www.frontiersin.org/people/u/65559" class="">R. A. Bentley</a>1*, <a href="https://www.frontiersin.org/people/u/175646" class="">Eleanor J. Maddison</a>2,3, P. H. Ranner3,4, <a href="https://www.frontiersin.org/people/u/175147" class="">John Bissell</a>3,5, <a href="https://www.frontiersin.org/people/u/165772" class="">Camila C. S. Caiado</a>3,5, Pojanath Bhatanacharoen3,6, Timothy Clark6, Marc Botha3,7, Folarin Akinbami3,8, <a href="https://www.frontiersin.org/people/u/176906" class="">Matthew Hollow</a>3, <a href="https://www.frontiersin.org/people/u/175487" class="">Ranald Michie</a>9, Brian Huntley4, Sarah E. Curtis2,3 and <a href="https://www.frontiersin.org/people/u/175433" class="">Philip Garnett</a>10</span></div><div style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; color: rgb(2, 2, 2); min-height: 17px;" class=""><span style="font-kerning: none" class=""><b class=""></b></span><br class=""></div>
<ul style="list-style-type: none" class="">
<li style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; color: rgb(2, 2, 2);" class=""><span style="background-color: #ffffff" class=""></span><span style="font-kerning: none; background-color: #ffffff" class="">1Department of Archaeology and Anthropology, Bristol University, Bristol, UK</span></li>
<li style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; color: rgb(2, 2, 2);" class=""><span style="background-color: #ffffff" class=""></span><span style="font-kerning: none; background-color: #ffffff" class="">2Department of Geography, Durham University, Durham, UK</span></li>
<li style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; color: rgb(2, 2, 2);" class=""><span style="background-color: #ffffff" class=""></span><span style="font-kerning: none; background-color: #ffffff" class="">3Institute of Hazard, Risk and Resilience, Durham University, Durham, UK</span></li>
<li style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; color: rgb(2, 2, 2);" class=""><span style="background-color: #ffffff" class=""></span><span style="font-kerning: none; background-color: #ffffff" class="">4School of Biological and Biomedical Sciences, Durham University, Durham, UK</span></li>
<li style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; color: rgb(2, 2, 2);" class=""><span style="background-color: #ffffff" class=""></span><span style="font-kerning: none; background-color: #ffffff" class="">5Department of Mathematical Sciences, Durham University, Durham, UK</span></li>
<li style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; color: rgb(2, 2, 2);" class=""><span style="background-color: #ffffff" class=""></span><span style="font-kerning: none; background-color: #ffffff" class="">6Durham University Business School, Durham, UK</span></li>
<li style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; color: rgb(2, 2, 2);" class=""><span style="background-color: #ffffff" class=""></span><span style="font-kerning: none; background-color: #ffffff" class="">7Department of English Studies, Durham University, UK</span></li>
<li style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; color: rgb(2, 2, 2);" class=""><span style="background-color: #ffffff" class=""></span><span style="font-kerning: none; background-color: #ffffff" class="">8Palatine Centre, Durham Law School, Durham University, Durham, UK</span></li>
<li style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; color: rgb(2, 2, 2);" class=""><span style="background-color: #ffffff" class=""></span><span style="font-kerning: none; background-color: #ffffff" class="">9Department of History, Durham University, Durham, UK</span></li>
<li style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; color: rgb(2, 2, 2); background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);" class=""><span style="font-kerning: none" class="">10The York Management School, University of York, York, UK</span></li>
<li style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; color: rgb(2, 2, 2); min-height: 17px;" class=""></li>
</ul><p style="margin: 0px 0px 10px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; color: rgb(47, 46, 49);" class=""><span style="font-kerning: none; background-color: #ffff0a" class="">Recently, Early Warning Signals (EWS) have been developed to predict tipping points in Earth Systems. This discussion highlights the potential to apply EWS to human social and economic systems, which may also undergo similar critical transitions. </span><span style="font-kerning: none; background-color: #ffffff" class="">Social tipping points are particularly difficult to predict, however, and the current formulation of EWS, based on a physical system analogy, may be insufficient. As an alternative set of EWS for social systems, we join with other authors encouraging a focus on heterogeneity, connectivity through social networks and individual thresholds to change.</span></p><div style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; color: rgb(47, 46, 49); min-height: 17px;" class=""><span style="font-kerning: none" class=""></span><br class=""></div><div style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; color: rgb(47, 46, 49); min-height: 17px;" class=""><span style="font-kerning: none" class=""></span><br class=""></div><div style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; color: rgb(2, 2, 2);" class=""><span style="font-kerning: none; background-color: #ffffff" class=""><b class="">1. Introduction</b></span></div><p style="margin: 0px 0px 10px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; color: rgb(47, 46, 49);" class=""><span style="font-kerning: none; background-color: #ffffff" class="">Do human social and economic systems undergo critical transitions similar to those observed in ecological systems? The question has potential to advance a discussion that tends to treat environmental change as an exogenous force for societal change; e.g., the “collapse” of ancient civilizations (<a href="https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fenvs.2014.00035/full#B79" class=""><span style="font-kerning: none; color: #c92e39" class="">Shimkin, 1973</span></a>; <a href="https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fenvs.2014.00035/full#B26" class=""><span style="font-kerning: none; color: #c92e39" class="">Cullen et al., 2000</span></a>; <a href="https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fenvs.2014.00035/full#B53" class=""><span style="font-kerning: none; color: #c92e39" class="">Kuper and Kröpelin, 2006</span></a>; <a href="https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fenvs.2014.00035/full#B70" class=""><span style="font-kerning: none; color: #c92e39" class="">Rull et al., 2013</span></a>; <a href="https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fenvs.2014.00035/full#B83" class=""><span style="font-kerning: none; color: #c92e39" class="">Tierney and DeMenocal, 2013</span></a>) or future change in food supply, population dynamics, labor capacity or likelihood of conflict in modern societies (<a href="https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fenvs.2014.00035/full#B87" class=""><span style="font-kerning: none; color: #c92e39" class="">White et al., 2006</span></a>; <a href="https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fenvs.2014.00035/full#B10" class=""><span style="font-kerning: none; color: #c92e39" class="">Battisti and Naylor, 2009</span></a>; <a href="https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fenvs.2014.00035/full#B78" class=""><span style="font-kerning: none; color: #c92e39" class="">Schlenker and Roberts, 2009</span></a>; <a href="https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fenvs.2014.00035/full#B86" class=""><span style="font-kerning: none; color: #c92e39" class="">Welch et al., 2010</span></a>; <a href="https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fenvs.2014.00035/full#B45" class=""><span style="font-kerning: none; color: #c92e39" class="">Hsiang et al., 2013</span></a>; <a href="https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fenvs.2014.00035/full#B31" class=""><span style="font-kerning: none; color: #c92e39" class="">Dunne et al., 2013</span></a>).</span></p><p style="margin: 0px 0px 10px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; color: rgb(47, 46, 49); background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);" class=""><span style="font-kerning: none" class="">Recent discussion in ecology and evolutionary studies has focussed specifically on “tipping points” in Earth systems (<a href="https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fenvs.2014.00035/full#B46" class=""><span style="font-kerning: none; color: #c92e39" class="">Hughes et al., 2013</span></a>; <a href="https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fenvs.2014.00035/full#B57" class=""><span style="font-kerning: none; color: #c92e39" class="">Lenton and Williams, 2013</span></a>). </span><span style="font-kerning: none; background-color: #ffff0a" class="">Enough is now known about the climate and Earth systems to evoke serious concern, though not certainty (<a href="https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fenvs.2014.00035/full#B18" class=""><span style="font-kerning: none; color: #c92e39" class="">Brook et al., 2013</span></a>), that parameters for humanity's environmentally safe and sustainable activity may be exceeded in this century</span><span style="font-kerning: none" class=""> (<a href="https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fenvs.2014.00035/full#B56" class=""><span style="font-kerning: none; color: #c92e39" class="">Lenton et al., 2008</span></a>; <a href="https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fenvs.2014.00035/full#B69" class=""><span style="font-kerning: none; color: #c92e39" class="">Rockström et al., 2009</span></a>; <a href="https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fenvs.2014.00035/full#B7" class=""><span style="font-kerning: none; color: #c92e39" class="">Barnosky et al., 2012</span></a>; <a href="https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fenvs.2014.00035/full#B32" class=""><span style="font-kerning: none; color: #c92e39" class="">Ehrlich and Ehrlich, 2013</span></a>; <a href="https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fenvs.2014.00035/full#B46" class=""><span style="font-kerning: none; color: #c92e39" class="">Hughes et al., 2013</span></a>; <a href="https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fenvs.2014.00035/full#B57" class=""><span style="font-kerning: none; color: #c92e39" class="">Lenton and Williams, 2013</span></a>). These perspectives are associated with the observation that Earth systems can behave non-linearly and switch relatively abruptly between different modes of operation, potentially within a human lifetime. As these natural tipping points become more starkly recognized —as in a recent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change report (<a href="https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fenvs.2014.00035/full#B48" class=""><span style="font-kerning: none; color: #c92e39" class="">IPCC, 2013</span></a>) or accounts of inevitability of West Antarctic Ice Sheet collapse (<a href="https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fenvs.2014.00035/full#B49" class=""><span style="font-kerning: none; color: #c92e39" class="">Joughin et al., 2014</span></a>) —</span><span style="font-kerning: none; background-color: #ffff0a" class="">the challenge turns to understanding how societies may respond to their anticipation of environmental change.</span></p><p style="margin: 0px 0px 10px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; color: rgb(47, 46, 49);" class=""><span style="font-kerning: none; background-color: #ffffff" class="">Because language and socio-political activity are closely correlated, how we collectively define and discuss planetary tipping points is important (<a href="https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fenvs.2014.00035/full#B64" class=""><span style="font-kerning: none; color: #c92e39" class="">O'Neill and Nicholson-Cole, 2009</span></a>; <a href="https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fenvs.2014.00035/full#B57" class=""><span style="font-kerning: none; color: #c92e39" class="">Lenton and Williams, 2013</span></a>). In physical and mathematical sciences, precise expressions are used to represent transitions between phases of matter, waves and networks (<a href="https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fenvs.2014.00035/full#B14" class=""><span style="font-kerning: none; color: #c92e39" class="">Bissell and Straughan, in press</span></a>). Studies of Earth Systems, however, often apply a more general definition of a tipping point as one where “a small perturbation can cause a qualitative change in the future state of a system,” (<a href="https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fenvs.2014.00035/full#B57" class=""><span style="font-kerning: none; color: #c92e39" class="">Lenton and Williams, 2013</span></a>), e.g., “the flip of a complex dynamical system from one state to another” (<a href="https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fenvs.2014.00035/full#B61" class=""><span style="font-kerning: none; color: #c92e39" class="">May et al., 2008</span></a>) or simply the point where the system “response (to changing conditions) becomes nonlinear or the rate of change alters steeply” (<a href="https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fenvs.2014.00035/full#B18" class=""><span style="font-kerning: none; color: #c92e39" class="">Brook et al., 2013</span></a>).</span></p><p style="margin: 0px 0px 10px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; color: rgb(47, 46, 49);" class=""><span style="font-kerning: none; background-color: #ffffff" class="">Recent discussion of tipping points in Earth Systems has developed the tools for detecting Early Warning Signals (EWS) in observational environmental variables (time series data) and identifying the causal drivers of abrupt change, including connectivity and homogeneity/heterogeneity of systems, associated cascade effects, and feedback (<a href="https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fenvs.2014.00035/full#B7" class=""><span style="font-kerning: none; color: #c92e39" class="">Barnosky et al., 2012</span></a>; <a href="https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fenvs.2014.00035/full#B76" class=""><span style="font-kerning: none; color: #c92e39" class="">Scheffer et al., 2012</span></a>; <a href="https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fenvs.2014.00035/full#B18" class=""><span style="font-kerning: none; color: #c92e39" class="">Brook et al., 2013</span></a>; <a href="https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fenvs.2014.00035/full#B46" class=""><span style="font-kerning: none; color: #c92e39" class="">Hughes et al., 2013</span></a>; <a href="https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fenvs.2014.00035/full#B57" class=""><span style="font-kerning: none; color: #c92e39" class="">Lenton and Williams, 2013</span></a>). The tempo of “abrupt” change in Earth Systems has a vast range, from momentary to human lifetimes to millennia and geological time scales, operating on global, local or microscale individual components of systems (<a href="https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fenvs.2014.00035/full#B18" class=""><span style="font-kerning: none; color: #c92e39" class="">Brook et al., 2013</span></a>; <a href="https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fenvs.2014.00035/full#B46" class=""><span style="font-kerning: none; color: #c92e39" class="">Hughes et al., 2013</span></a>).</span></p><p style="margin: 0px 0px 10px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; color: rgb(47, 46, 49);" class=""><span style="font-kerning: none; background-color: #ffffff" class="">In the spirit of finding “common ground” between social systems and ecosystems (<a href="https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fenvs.2014.00035/full#B61" class=""><span style="font-kerning: none; color: #c92e39" class="">May et al., 2008</span></a>), we are optimistic about EWS for understanding and anticipating societal responses to environmental change, but we also caution, however, against applying EWS from natural systems directly to societal systems.</span></p><div style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; color: rgb(26, 26, 26); min-height: 17px;" class=""><span style="font-kerning: none" class=""></span><br class=""></div><div style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; color: rgb(26, 26, 26); min-height: 17px;" class=""><span style="font-kerning: none" class=""></span><br class=""></div><div style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; color: rgb(251, 2, 7); min-height: 17px;" class=""><span style="font-kerning: none" class=""></span><br class=""></div><div style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; color: rgb(251, 2, 7); min-height: 17px;" class=""><span style="font-kerning: none" class=""></span><br class=""></div><div style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; color: rgb(251, 2, 7); min-height: 17px;" class=""><span style="font-kerning: none" class=""></span><br class=""></div><div style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; min-height: 17px;" class=""><font color="#ff2600" class=""><span style="font-kerning: none" class=""></span><br class=""></font></div><div class="">
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