<html><head><meta http-equiv="Content-Type" content="text/html; charset=utf-8"></head><body style="word-wrap: break-word; -webkit-nbsp-mode: space; line-break: after-white-space;" class=""><div class="aju" style="cursor: default; float: none; padding: 0px 16px; align-items: center; display: flex; height: 80px; min-width: 40px; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-variant-ligatures: normal; orphans: 2; widows: 2; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); text-decoration-thickness: initial;"><span style="-webkit-font-kerning: none;" class="">“Decarbonization of the world’s economy would bring </span><span style="-webkit-font-kerning: none; background-color: rgb(33, 255, 255);" class="">colossal disruption of the status quo<span style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);" class="">. It’s a desire to avoid that change — political, financial and otherwise — that drives many of the climate sceptics. </span></span></div><div class="gs" style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px 0px 20px; width: 1504px; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-variant-ligatures: normal; orphans: 2; widows: 2; text-decoration-thickness: initial;"><div class=""><div id=":17m" class="gt ii" jslog="20277; u014N:xr6bB; 4:W251bGwsbnVsbCxbXV0." style="direction: ltr; margin: 8px 0px 0px; padding: 0px; position: relative;"><div id=":17l" class="a3s aiL " style="font-stretch: normal; line-height: 1.5; overflow: hidden;"><div style="overflow-wrap: break-word;" class=""><div style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; min-height: 17px;" class=""><span style="font-kerning: none;" class=""></span><br class=""></div><div style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal;" class=""><span style="font-kerning: none;" class="">"Still, as this journal has noted numerous times, </span><span style="font-kerning: none; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 10);" class="">it’s clear that many policymakers who argue that emissions must be curbed, and fast, </span><span style="font-kerning: none; background-color: rgb(33, 255, 255);" class="">don’t seem to appreciate the scale of what’s required.</span><span style="font-kerning: none; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 10);" class="">”</span></div><div style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; min-height: 17px;" class=""><span style="font-kerning: none;" class=""></span><br class=""></div><div style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal;" class=""><span style="font-kerning: none;" class="">EDITORIAL</span></div><div style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal;" class=""><span style="font-kerning: none;" class="">NATURE 21 FEBRUARY 2018</span></div><div style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; min-height: 17px;" class=""><span style="font-kerning: none;" class=""></span><br class=""></div><div style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; color: rgb(251, 2, 7);" class=""><span style="font-kerning: none;" class="">==================</span></div><div style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; min-height: 17px;" class=""><span style="font-kerning: none;" class=""></span><br class=""></div><div style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal;" class=""><span style="font-kerning: none;" class="">“...many scientists say deep emissions cuts are necessary … to prevent … dangerous consequences of global warming. </span></div><div style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; min-height: 17px;" class=""><span style="font-kerning: none;" class=""></span><br class=""></div><div style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal;" class=""><span style="font-kerning: none;" class="">"Getting from here to there </span><span style="font-kerning: none; background-color: rgb(33, 255, 255);" class="">would require a massive economic shift.”</span></div><div style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; min-height: 17px;" class=""><span style="font-kerning: none;" class=""></span><br class=""></div><div style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal;" class=""><span style="font-kerning: none;" class="">Rachel Pannett and Jeffrey Ball. “Australia Approves Energy Bill.” </span></div><div style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal;" class=""><span style="font-kerning: none;" class="">The Wall Street Journal p.A7, August 21, 2009</span></div><div style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); margin: 0px 0px 0px 6px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.85); min-height: 17px;" class=""><br class=""></div><div style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); margin: 0px 0px 0px 6px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.85); min-height: 17px;" class=""><br class=""></div><div style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; color: rgb(251, 2, 7);" class=""><span style="font-kerning: none;" class="">==================</span></div><div style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; color: rgb(241, 109, 17); min-height: 13px;" class=""><span style="font-kerning: none;" class=""></span><br class=""></div><div style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; color: rgb(26, 26, 26);" class=""><span style="font-kerning: none;" class=""><b class="">Climate Endgame: Exploring catastrophic climate change scenarios</b></span></div><div style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; color: rgb(26, 26, 26);" class=""><span style="font-kerning: none;" class=""> Luke Kempa,b,1 , Chi Xuc ,Joanna Depledged , Kristie L. Ebie , Goodwin Gibbinsf , Timothy A. Kohlerg,h,i , Johan Rockstrom€ j , Marten Schefferk , Hans Joachim Schellnhuberj,l , Will Steffenm , and Timothy M. Lentonn</span></div><div style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; color: rgb(26, 26, 26); min-height: 17px;" class=""><span style="font-kerning: none;" class=""></span><br class=""></div><div style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; color: rgb(26, 26, 26);" class=""><span style="-webkit-font-kerning: none;" class=""><b class="">OPEN ACCESS pdf</b></span></div><div style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; color: rgb(16, 60, 192);" class=""><span style="text-decoration: underline; -webkit-font-kerning: none;" class=""><a href="https://www.pnas.org/doi/pdf/10.1073/pnas.2108146119" target="_blank" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.pnas.org/doi/pdf/10.1073/pnas.2108146119&source=gmail&ust=1671921700290000&usg=AOvVaw0cLt8nitz2SAxrR-e_y3QC" style="color: rgb(17, 85, 204);" class="">https://www.pnas.org/doi/pdf/<wbr class="">10.1073/pnas.2108146119</a></span></div><div style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; color: rgb(26, 26, 26); min-height: 17px;" class=""><span style="font-kerning: none;" class=""></span><br class=""></div><div style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; color: rgb(26, 26, 26);" class=""><span style="font-kerning: none;" class=""><b class="">Opening paragraphs</b></span></div><div style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; color: rgb(26, 26, 26); min-height: 17px;" class=""><span style="font-kerning: none;" class=""></span><br class=""></div><p style="margin: 0px 0px 10px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; color: rgb(26, 26, 26);" class=""><span style="background-color: rgb(0, 253, 255);" class="">How bad could climate change get? </span><span style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);" class="">As early as 1988, the landmark Toronto Conference declaration described the ultimate consequences of climate change as potentially “second only to a global nuclear war.” </span><span style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 10);" class="">Despite such proclamations decades ago, climate catastrophe is relatively under-studied and poorly understood.</span></p><p style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); margin: 0px 0px 10px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; color: rgb(26, 26, 26);" class=""><span style="-webkit-font-kerning: none;" class="">The potential for catastrophic impacts depends on the magnitude and rate of climate change, the damage inflicted on Earth and human systems, and the vulnerability and response of those affected systems. The extremes of these areas, such as high temperature rise and cascading impacts, are </span><span style="font-kerning: none; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 10);" class="">underexamined. </span><span style="-webkit-font-kerning: none;" class="">As noted by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), there have been few quantitative estimates of global aggregate impacts from warming of 3°C or above (1). </span><span style="font-kerning: none; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 10);" class="">Text mining of IPCC reports similarly found that coverage of temperature rises of 3 °C or higher is underrepresented relative to their likelihood </span><span style="-webkit-font-kerning: none;" class="">(2). Text-mining analysis also suggests that over time the coverage of IPCC reports has shifted towards temperature rise of 2 °C and below<a href="https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/" target="_blank" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/&source=gmail&ust=1671921700290000&usg=AOvVaw0X0tFeixsO4SF3KYQYOf4b" style="color: rgb(17, 85, 204);" class=""><span style="color: rgb(16, 60, 192);" class="">https://agupubs.<wbr class="">onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/<wbr class="">full/10.1029/</span></a> 2022EF002876. </span><span style="font-kerning: none; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 10);" class="">Research has focused on the impacts of 1.5 °C and 2 °C, and</span><span style="font-kerning: none; background-color: rgb(33, 255, 255);" class=""> studies of how climate impacts could cascade or trigger larger crises are sparse.</span></p><p style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); margin: 0px 0px 10px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; color: rgb(26, 26, 26);" class=""><span style="-webkit-font-kerning: none;" class="">A thorough risk assessment would need to consider how risks spread, interact, amplify, and are aggravated by human responses (3), but </span><span style="font-kerning: none; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 10);" class="">even simpler “compound hazard” analyses of interacting climate hazards and drivers are underused. Yet this is how risk unfolds in the real world. For example,</span><span style="-webkit-font-kerning: none;" class=""> a cyclone destroys electrical infrastructure, leaving a population vulnerable to an ensuing deadly heat wave (4). Recently, we have seen compound hazards emerge between climate change and the COVID-19 pandemic (5). As the IPCC notes, climate risks are becoming more complex and difficult to manage, and are cascading across regions and sectors (6).</span></p><p style="background-color: rgb(33, 255, 255); margin: 0px 0px 10px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; color: rgb(26, 26, 26);" class=""><span style="font-kerning: none;" class="">Why the focus on lower-end warming and simple risk analyses?</span><span style="font-kerning: none; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 10);" class=""> One reason is the benchmark of the international targets: the Paris Agreement goal of limiting warming to well below 2 °C, with an aspiration of 1.5 °C. </span><span style="font-kerning: none;" class="">Another reason is the culture of climate science to “err on the side of least drama” (7), to not to be alarmists,</span><span style="font-kerning: none; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 10);" class=""> which can be compounded by the consensus processes of the IPCC (8).</span><span style="font-kerning: none;" class=""> Complex risk assessments, while more realistic, are also more difficult to do. </span></p><div style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; color: rgb(26, 26, 26);" class=""><span style="-webkit-font-kerning: none;" class=""><b class="">OPEN ACCESS pdf</b></span></div><div style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; color: rgb(16, 60, 192);" class=""><span style="text-decoration: underline; font-kerning: none;" class=""><a href="https://www.pnas.org/doi/pdf/10.1073/pnas.2108146119" target="_blank" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.pnas.org/doi/pdf/10.1073/pnas.2108146119&source=gmail&ust=1671921700290000&usg=AOvVaw0cLt8nitz2SAxrR-e_y3QC" style="color: rgb(17, 85, 204);" class="">https://www.pnas.org/doi/pdf/<wbr class="">10.1073/pnas.2108146119</a></span></div></div></div></div></div></div><div class="">
<div dir="auto" style="caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); color: rgb(0, 0, 0); letter-spacing: normal; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; text-decoration: none; word-wrap: break-word; -webkit-nbsp-mode: space; line-break: after-white-space;" class=""><div dir="auto" style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0); letter-spacing: normal; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-wrap: break-word; -webkit-nbsp-mode: space; line-break: after-white-space;" class=""><div dir="auto" style="word-wrap: break-word; -webkit-nbsp-mode: space; line-break: after-white-space;" class=""><div style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;">~~~~~~~. Hydrology 101. ~~~~~~~~~~<br class=""><br class="">“A fundamental characteristic of the hydrologic cycle is that it has no beginning an it has no end. It can be studied by starting at any of the following processes: evaporation, condensation, precipitation, interception, infiltration, percolation, transpiration, runoff, and storage.”<br class=""><br class=""><<<a href="https://www.nwrfc.noaa.gov/info/water_cycle/hydrology.cgi" class="">https://www.nwrfc.noaa.gov/info/water_cycle/hydrology.cgi</a>>></div><div style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;"><br class="">~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~<br class="">“The changes experienced by the biosphere over the past century ... have raised concerns about the possibility of rapid shifts from green to desert states.” <br class=""><br class="">Richard Sole'. Scaling laws in the drier. Nature 13 September 2007<br class=""><br class="">~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~<br class="">"The big challenge is still to deliver emissions reductions at the pace and scale needed, especially in a world where economies are driven by consumption.”<br class=""><br class="">Sonja van Renssen.The inconvenient truth of failed climate policies. Nature Climate Change MAY 2018<br class=""><br class="">Published online: 27 April 2018 <a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-018-0155-4" class="">https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-018-0155-4</a> </div></div></div></div>
</div>
<br class=""></body></html>