<html><head><meta http-equiv="Content-Type" content="text/html; charset=utf-8"></head><body style="word-wrap: break-word; -webkit-nbsp-mode: space; line-break: after-white-space;" class=""><div style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; background-color: rgb(251, 251, 251);" class=""><br class=""></div><div style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; background-color: rgb(251, 251, 251); min-height: 17px;" class=""><span style="font-kerning: none" class=""></span><br class=""></div><div style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; background-color: rgb(251, 251, 251);" class=""><span style="font-kerning: none" class="">Which is true?</span></div><div style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; background-color: rgb(251, 251, 251); min-height: 17px;" class=""><span style="font-kerning: none" class=""></span><br class=""></div><div style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; color: rgb(26, 26, 26); background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);" class=""><span style="font-kerning: none" class="">A) There’s a carbon footprint with every dollar we spend</span></div><div style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; color: rgb(26, 26, 26); background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);" class=""><span style="font-kerning: none" class="">B) There’s a biodiversity footprint with every dollar we spend</span></div><div style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; color: rgb(26, 26, 26); background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);" class=""><span style="font-kerning: none" class="">C) All the above, or</span></div><div style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; color: rgb(26, 26, 26); background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);" class=""><span style="font-kerning: none" class="">D) None of the above</span></div><div style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; min-height: 17px;" class=""><span style="font-kerning: none" class=""></span><br class=""></div><div style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; color: rgb(251, 2, 7);" class=""><span style="font-kerning: none" class="">~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~</span></div><div style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; color: rgb(251, 2, 7); min-height: 17px;" class=""><span style="font-kerning: none" class=""></span><br class=""></div><div style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal;" class=""><span style="font-kerning: none" class="">“The changes experienced by the biosphere over the past century ... have raised concerns about the possibility of rapid shifts <span style="background-color: rgb(255, 251, 0);" class="">from green to desert states.”</span></span></div><div style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; min-height: 17px;" class=""><span style="font-kerning: none" class=""></span><br class=""></div><div style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal;" class=""><span style="font-kerning: none" class="">Sole. Scaling laws in the drier. Nature 13 September 2007</span></div><div style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; min-height: 17px;" class=""><span style="font-kerning: none" class=""></span><br class=""></div><div style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; color: rgb(251, 2, 7);" class=""><span style="font-kerning: none" class="">~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~<a href="https://www.ecowatch.com/el-nino-weather-2023.html" class=""><span style="color: rgb(26, 13, 171);" class=""><br class="">
</span></a></span></div><div style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; color: rgb(251, 2, 7);" class=""><span style="font-kerning: none" class=""><br class=""></span></div><div style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; color: rgb(20, 18, 19); background-color: rgb(255, 255, 10);" class=""><span style="font-kerning: none; background-color: #ffffff" class="">“Our results indicate that terrestrial ecosystems are highly sensitive to temperature change and suggest that, </span><span style="font-kerning: none" class="">without major reductions in greenhouse gas emissions to the atmosphere, terrestrial ecosystems worldwide are at risk of major transformation.”</span></div><div style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; color: rgb(20, 18, 19); min-height: 17px;" class=""><span style="font-kerning: none" class=""></span><br class=""></div><div style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; color: rgb(20, 18, 19); background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);" class=""><span style="font-kerning: none" class="">Nolan et al. Past and future global transformation of terrestrial ecosystems under climate change. </span></div><div style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; color: rgb(20, 18, 19); background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);" class=""><span style="font-kerning: none" class="">Science 31 August 2018 </span></div><div style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; min-height: 17px;" class=""><span style="font-kerning: none" class=""></span><br class=""></div><div style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; color: rgb(251, 2, 7);" class=""><span style="font-kerning: none" class="">~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~</span></div><div style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; min-height: 17px;" class=""><span style="font-kerning: none" class=""></span><br class=""></div><div style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal;" class=""><span style="font-kerning: none" class="">“We contend that traditional approaches to forest conservation and management will be inadequate ... in the 21st century. New approaches ... acknowledge that </span><span style="font-kerning: none; background-color: #ffff0a" class="">change is inevitable and sometimes irreversible, </span><span style="font-kerning: none; background-color: #ffffff" class="">and that maintenance of ecosystem services depends in part on novel ecosystems, i.e., species combinations with no analog in the past.”</span></div><div style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; min-height: 17px;" class=""><span style="font-kerning: none" class=""></span><br class=""></div><div style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal;" class=""><span style="font-kerning: none" class="">Forest Ecology and Management 360 (2016) 80–96 </span></div><div style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal;" class=""><span style="font-kerning: none" class="">Review and synthesis </span></div><div style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal;" class=""><span style="font-kerning: none; background-color: #ffff0a" class=""><b class="">Achievable</b></span><span style="font-kerning: none" class=""><b class=""> future conditions as a framework for guiding forest conservation and management </b></span></div><div style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal;" class=""><span style="font-kerning: none" class="">S.W. Golladay</span><span style="vertical-align: 6.5px; font-kerning: none" class="">,</span><span style="font-kerning: none" class="">, K.L. Martin, J.M. Vose , D.N. Wear, A.P. Covich, R.J. Hobbs , K.D. Klepzig , G.E. Likens , R.J. Naiman A.W. Shearer </span></div><div style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; min-height: 17px;" class=""><span style="font-kerning: none" class=""></span><br class=""></div><div style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; color: rgb(251, 2, 7);" class=""><span style="font-kerning: none" class="">~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~</span></div><div style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; color: rgb(251, 2, 7); min-height: 17px;" class=""><span style="font-kerning: none" class=""></span><br class=""></div><div style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; min-height: 17px;" class=""><br class=""></div><div style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal;" class=""><span style="background-color: #ffff0a" class="">“Climate-driven forest die-off from drought and heat stress has occurred around the world, is expected to increase with climate change </span>and probably has distinct consequences from those of other forest disturbances. We examine the consequences of drought- and climate-driven widespread forest loss on ecological communities, ecosystem functions, ecosystem services and land–climate interactions. Furthermore, we highlight research gaps that warrant study. As the global climate continues to warm, understanding the implications of forest loss triggered by these events will be of increasing importance.”</div><div style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; min-height: 17px;" class=""><br class=""></div><div style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal;" class="">William R. L. Anderegg et al. Consequences of widespread tree mortality triggered by drought and temperature stress. <i class="">Nature Climate Change. </i>PUBLISHED ONLINE: 9 SEPTEMBER 2012 | DOI: 10.1038/NCLIMATE1635</div><div style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; min-height: 17px;" class=""><br class=""></div><div style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; color: rgb(251, 2, 7);" class=""><span style="font-kerning: none" class="">~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~</span></div><div style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; min-height: 17px;" class=""><br class=""></div><div style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal;" class="">"Future projections of drought in the twenty-first century ... show regions of strong wetting and drying with a net overall global drying trend. For example, the <span style="background-color: #ffff0a" class="">proportion of the land surface in extreme drought is predicted to increase from 1% for the present day to 30% </span>by the end of the twenty-first century." </div><div style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; min-height: 17px;" class=""><br class=""></div><div style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; min-height: 17px;" class=""><br class=""></div><div style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal;" class="">JOURNAL OF HYDROMETEOROLOGY</div><div style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal;" class="">OCTOBER 2006 </div><div style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; min-height: 17px;" class=""><br class=""></div><div style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal;" class="">Modeling the Recent Evolution of Global Drought and Projections for the Twenty-First Century with the Hadley Centre Climate Model</div><div style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; min-height: 17px;" class=""><br class=""></div><div style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal;" class="">ELEANOR J. BURKE, SIMON J. BROWN, AND NIKOLAOS CHRISTIDIS</div><div style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal;" class="">Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research, Met Office, Exeter, United Kingdom</div><div style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; min-height: 17px;" class=""><br class=""></div><div style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; min-height: 17px;" class=""><br class=""></div><div style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; color: rgb(251, 2, 7);" class=""><span style="font-kerning: none" class="">~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~</span></div><div style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; min-height: 17px;" class=""><br class=""></div><div style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; color: rgb(26, 26, 26);" class=""><span style="color: #000000" class="">“</span>Under RCP8.5, <span style="background-color: #ffff0a" class="">droughts exceeding 40% of analyzed land area </span>are projected by nearly half of the simulations.”</div><div style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; color: rgb(26, 26, 26); min-height: 17px;" class=""><br class=""></div><div style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; color: rgb(26, 26, 26);" class="">Christel Prudhomme et al. Hydrological droughts in the 21st century, hotspots and uncertainties from a global multimodel ensemble experiment.</div><p style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; color: rgb(26, 26, 26); min-height: 17px;" class=""> <br class="webkit-block-placeholder"></p><div style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; color: rgb(26, 26, 26);" class=""><i class="">PNAS </i> 9 March 11, <b class="">2014</b></div><div style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; color: rgb(26, 26, 26);" class="">doi: 10.1073/pnas.1222473110</div><div style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; color: rgb(0, 64, 194);" class=""><span style="text-decoration: underline" class=""><a href="http://www.pnas.org/content/111/9/3262.abstract" class="">http://www.pnas.org/content/111/9/3262.abstract</a></span></div><div style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; color: rgb(0, 64, 194); min-height: 17px;" class=""><span style="text-decoration: underline" class=""></span><br class=""></div><div style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; color: rgb(0, 64, 194); min-height: 17px;" class=""><span style="text-decoration: underline" class=""></span><br class=""></div><div style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; color: rgb(251, 2, 7);" class=""><span style="font-kerning: none" class="">~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~</span></div><div style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; color: rgb(251, 2, 7); min-height: 17px;" class=""><span style="font-kerning: none" class=""></span><br class=""></div><p style="margin: 0px 0px 15px; font-stretch: normal; font-size: 15px; line-height: normal; font-family: Helvetica; color: rgb(26, 26, 26); background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);" class=""><span style="font-kerning: none" class=""><b class="">North Central Climate Adaptation Science Center - Webinar: The Increasing Role of Drought in Ecological Transformation</b></span></p>
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<td valign="top" style="width: 594.0px" class=""><p style="margin: 0px 0px 15px; font-stretch: normal; font-size: 15px; line-height: normal; font-family: Helvetica;" class=""><span style="font-kerning: none" class="">Join this webinar to learn more about the results of an interdisciplinary </span><span style="font-kerning: none; background-color: #ffff0a" class="">science synthesis that focused on how the risk of transformational drought is changing in the 21st century. </span><span style="font-kerning: none" class="">This will include a broad overview of the phenomenon of transformational ecological drought, including the diverse pathways by which it leads to transformation, highlighting mechanisms and case studies relevant to the North Central region. It will take place on February 9 at 1 pm ET. </span></p><p style="margin: 0px 0px 15px; font-stretch: normal; font-size: 15px; line-height: normal; font-family: Helvetica; color: rgb(24, 68, 111);" class=""><span style="text-decoration: underline ; font-kerning: none" class=""><a href="https://lnks.gd/l/eyJhbGciOiJIUzI1NiJ9.eyJidWxsZXRpbl9saW5rX2lkIjoxMTAsInVyaSI6ImJwMjpjbGljayIsImJ1bGxldGluX2lkIjoiMjAyMzAyMDguNzEyMjU2MjEiLCJ1cmwiOiJodHRwczovL2N1Ym91bGRlci56b29tLnVzL21lZXRpbmcvcmVnaXN0ZXIvdEp3c2YtMnBxVElpRzlZZTUtRE5pcFFRb1ZqZ0p1Q2tBWlRVIn0.CpIYl_gUHfXzbm3y5qNZPLoEFCvQDPxZaC1s55lxGyU/s/2592756084/br/154193350352-l" class=""><b class="">Learn more>></b></a></span></p>
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</table><div style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; min-height: 17px;" class=""><span style="font-kerning: none" class=""></span><br class=""></div><div style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; color: rgb(251, 2, 7);" class=""><span style="font-kerning: none" class="">~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~</span></div><div style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; min-height: 17px;" class=""><span style="font-kerning: none" class=""></span><br class=""></div><div style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; min-height: 17px;" class=""><span style="font-kerning: none" class=""></span><br class=""></div><div style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal;" class=""><span style="font-kerning: none; background-color: #ffff0a" class="">“Droughts of the twenty-first century are characterized by hotter temperatures, longer duration, and greater spatial extent</span><span style="font-kerning: none" class=""> …. This situation increases the vulnerability of ecosystems to drought, including a rise in drought-driven tree mortality globally (Allen et al. 2015) and anticipated ecosystem transformations from one state to another—for example, forest to a shrubland (Jiang et al. 2013). </span><span style="font-kerning: none; background-color: #ffff0a" class="">When a drought drives changes within ecosystems, there can be a ripple effect through human communities </span><span style="font-kerning: none" class="">that depend on those ecosystems for critical goods and services (Millar and Stephenson 2015). …</span><span style="font-kerning: none; background-color: #ffffff" class="">. Despite the high costs to both nature and people, </span><span style="font-kerning: none" class="">current drought research, management, and policy perspectives often fail to evaluate how drought affects ecosystems and the “natural capital” they provide to human communities. </span><span style="font-kerning: none; background-color: #ffff0a" class="">Integrating these human and natural dimensions of drought is an essential step toward addressing the rising risk of drought in the twenty-first century</span><span style="font-kerning: none" class="">. </span></div><div style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; min-height: 17px;" class=""><span style="font-kerning: none" class=""></span><br class=""></div><div style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal;" class=""><span style="font-kerning: none" class="">Crausbay, et al. Defining Ecological Drought for the Twenty-First Century. <i class="">Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society.</i> December 2017.</span></div><div style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; min-height: 17px;" class=""><span style="font-kerning: none" class=""></span><br class=""></div><div style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal;" class=""><span style="font-kerning: none" class="">Open Access</span></div><div style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal;" class=""><span style="font-kerning: none" class=""><a href="https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/pdf/10.1175/BAMS-D-16-0292.1" class="">https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/pdf/10.1175/BAMS-D-16-0292.1</a> </span></div><div style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; min-height: 17px;" class=""><span style="font-kerning: none" class=""></span><br class=""></div><div style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; color: rgb(251, 2, 7);" class=""><span style="font-kerning: none" class="">~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~</span></div><div style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; min-height: 17px;" class=""><span style="font-kerning: none" class=""></span><br class=""></div><div style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; color: rgb(52, 102, 232);" class=""><span style="font-kerning: none" class=""><a href="https://www.google.com/url?rct=j&sa=t&url=https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/2/4/death-toll-rises-as-chile-reels-from-wildfires-driven-by-heatwave&ct=ga&cd=CAEYACoUMTAyNzM1OTQ2NjgyODMwMDc1MzcyGmJmNmVmOTBmZDkxYzExY2E6Y29tOmVuOlVT&usg=AOvVaw3c32TsWNHufxG1lrjMUkJM" class="">Death toll rises as Chile reels from wildfires driven by <span style="-webkit-font-kerning: none; color: rgb(52, 102, 232);" class=""><b class="">heatwave</b> - Al Jazeera</span></a></span></div><div style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; color: rgb(96, 96, 96);" class=""><span style="font-kerning: none" class="">Al Jazeera</span></div><div style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; color: rgb(28, 28, 28);" class=""><span style="font-kerning: none; background-color: #ffff0a" class="">The fires have been exacerbated by a nearly 13-year-long drought</span><span style="font-kerning: none" class=""> in the country, as well as a heat wave. Many of the fires are concentrated in the ...</span></div><div style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; color: rgb(26, 26, 26); min-height: 17px;" class=""><br class=""></div><div style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; color: rgb(26, 26, 26); min-height: 17px;" class=""><br class=""></div><div style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; color: rgb(251, 2, 7);" class=""><span style="font-kerning: none" class="">~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~</span></div><div style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; color: rgb(26, 26, 26); min-height: 17px;" class=""><br class=""></div><div style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; color: rgb(38, 38, 38);" class=""><span style="font-kerning: none; background-color: #ffffff" class=""><b class="">NEWS RELEASE 1-FEB-2023</b></span></div><div style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; color: rgb(32, 32, 32); background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);" class=""><span style="font-kerning: none" class=""><b class="">Western wildfires destroying more homes per square mile burned</b></span></div><div style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; color: rgb(32, 32, 32); min-height: 17px;" class=""><span style="font-kerning: none" class=""></span><br class=""></div><p style="margin: 0px 0px 10px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; color: rgb(38, 38, 38);" class=""><span style="font-kerning: none; background-color: #ffffff" class="">Climate change, more buildings near flammable vegetation, and accidental human ignitions contributed to wildfires’ increased destructiveness</span></p><div style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; color: rgb(251, 0, 7); background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);" class=""><span style="font-kerning: none" class=""><a href="https://www.eurekalert.org/releaseguidelines" class="">Peer-Reviewed Publication</a></span></div><p style="margin: 0px 0px 20px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; color: rgb(32, 32, 32);" class=""><span style="font-kerning: none; background-color: #ffffff" class="">UNIVERSITY OF COLORADO AT BOULDER</span></p><p style="margin: 0px 0px 15px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; color: rgb(38, 38, 38);" class=""><span style="font-kerning: none; background-color: #ffffff" class="">More than three times as many houses and other structures burned in Western wildfires in 2010-2020 than in the previous decade, and that wasn’t only because more acreage burned, a new analysis has found. Human ignitions started 76% of the wildfires that destroyed structures, and those fires tended to be in flammable areas where homes, commercial structures, and outbuildings are increasingly common. </span></p><p style="margin: 0px 0px 15px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; color: rgb(38, 38, 38); background-color: rgb(255, 255, 10);" class=""><span style="font-kerning: none" class="">“Humans are driving the negative impacts from wildfire,” concluded lead author Philip Higuera, a fire ecologist and professor at the University of Montana, who wrote the assessment during a sabbatical at the Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences (CIRES) and CU Boulder. “Human fingerprints are all over this—we influence the when, the where, and the why.” </span></p><p style="margin: 0px 0px 15px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; color: rgb(38, 38, 38);" class=""><span style="font-kerning: none; background-color: #ffffff" class="">Most measures of wildfire’s impact—expansion of wildfire season into new months, and the number of structures in flammable vegetation, for example—are going in the wrong direction, Higuera said. But the new finding, published February 1 in the <a href="https://academic.oup.com/pnasnexus/article-lookup/doi/10.1093/pnasnexus/pgad005" class=""><span style="-webkit-font-kerning: none; color: rgb(14, 115, 192);" class=""><i class="">Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences-Nexus</i></span></a>, also means that human action can lessen the risks of wildfire damage.</span></p><p style="margin: 0px 0px 15px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; color: rgb(38, 38, 38);" class=""><span style="font-kerning: none; background-color: #ffffff" class="">“We have levers,” he said. “As climate change makes vegetation more flammable we advise carefully considering if and how we develop in flammable vegetation, for example.” </span></p><p style="margin: 0px 0px 15px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; color: rgb(38, 38, 38);" class=""><span style="font-kerning: none; background-color: #ffffff" class="">During Higuera’s <a href="https://cires.colorado.edu/about/institutional-programs/visiting-fellows-program" class=""><span style="-webkit-font-kerning: none; color: rgb(14, 115, 192);" class="">visiting fellowship</span></a> at CIRES, he worked with several researchers to dig into the details of 15,001 Western wildfires between 1999 and 2020. </span></p><p style="margin: 0px 0px 15px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; color: rgb(38, 38, 38);" class=""><span style="font-kerning: none; background-color: #21ffff" class="">Burned area increased 30% across the West, the team found, but structure loss increased much more, by nearly 250%</span><span style="font-kerning: none; background-color: #ffff0a" class="">.</span><span style="font-kerning: none; background-color: #ffffff" class=""> Many factors contributed, including climate change, our tendency to build more homes in flammable ecosystems, and a history of suppressing wildfire. Co-author and CIRES/CU Boulder Ph.D. student Maxwell Cook said that the forcible removal of Indigenous people from landscapes played a role, by all-but-eliminating intentional burning, which can lessen the risk of more destructive fires.</span></p><p style="margin: 0px 0px 15px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; color: rgb(38, 38, 38);" class=""><span style="font-kerning: none; background-color: #ffffff" class="">“Prescribed fire is an incredibly important tool, and we have a lot to learn about how people have been using fire for centuries,” Cook said. </span></p><p style="margin: 0px 0px 15px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; color: rgb(38, 38, 38);" class=""><span style="font-kerning: none; background-color: #ffffff" class="">In the new assessment, the team found some just plain horrible years for wildfire: 62% of all structures lost in those two decades were lost in just three years: 2017, 2018, and 2020, Cook said. And some states had it much worse than others: California, for example, accounted for more than 77% of all 85,014 structures destroyed during 1999-2020. </span></p><p style="margin: 0px 0px 15px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; color: rgb(38, 38, 38);" class=""><span style="font-kerning: none; background-color: #ffffff" class="">Across the West, 1.3 structures were destroyed for every 1,000 hectares of land scorched by wildfire between 1999 and 2009. Between 2010 and 2020, that ratio increased to 3.4. </span></p><p style="margin: 0px 0px 15px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; color: rgb(38, 38, 38);" class=""><span style="font-kerning: none; background-color: #ffffff" class="">I</span><span style="font-kerning: none; background-color: #ffff0a" class="">mportantly, Higuera and his colleagues also found variability among states in how much burning occurred and how many structures were lost in wildfires. Colorado, for example,</span><span style="font-kerning: none; background-color: #ffffff" class=""> doesn’t burn that much relative to how much area could burn, but the state’s wildfires result in high structure losses. Here, wildfires were dominated by human-related ignitions late in the season and near structures and flammable vegetation. The 2021 Marshall Fire, too late to be included in this analysis, exemplifies this pattern, Higuera said.</span></p><p style="margin: 0px 0px 15px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; color: rgb(38, 38, 38);" class=""><span style="font-kerning: none; background-color: #ffffff" class="">California also sees losses from wildfires, but burns much more overall. Each state could benefit from policies that address human-related ignitions, especially during late summer and fall and near developments, the paper concluded, and from policies that address fire-resistant building materials and consideration of nearby vegetation. </span></p><p style="margin: 0px 0px 15px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; color: rgb(38, 38, 38); background-color: rgb(255, 255, 10);" class=""><span style="font-kerning: none" class="">States like Montana, Nevada, and Idaho, by contrast, have large areas of less-developed land, so most wildfires burn from lightning ignitions and few destroy homes or buildings. Policies in these states could focus on maintaining safe landscape burning. </span></p><p style="margin: 0px 0px 15px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; color: rgb(38, 38, 38);" class=""><span style="font-kerning: none; background-color: #ffff0a" class="">Finally, climate change mitigation is also essential, Higuera, Cook, and their co-authors concluded. Longer fire seasons—a result of climate change—mean that human-related ignitions are more consequential, leading to more destructive wildfires in the fall and early winter, for example, when they were once rare. </span></p><div style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; color: rgb(38, 38, 38);" class=""><span style="font-kerning: none; background-color: #ffffff" class=""><b class="">JOURNAL</b></span></div><div style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; color: rgb(38, 38, 38);" class=""><span style="font-kerning: none; background-color: #ffffff" class="">PNAS Nexus</span></div><div style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; color: rgb(38, 38, 38);" class=""><span style="font-kerning: none; background-color: #ffffff" class=""><b class="">DOI</b></span></div><div style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; color: rgb(14, 115, 192);" class=""><span style="font-kerning: none; background-color: #ffffff" class=""><a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/pnasnexus/pgad005" class="">10.1093/pnasnexus/pgad005 <span style="font-kerning: none; color: #0e73c0" class=""></span></a></span></div><div style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; color: rgb(38, 38, 38);" class=""><span style="font-kerning: none; background-color: #ffffff" class=""><b class="">ARTICLE TITLE</b></span></div><div style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; color: rgb(38, 38, 38);" class=""><span style="font-kerning: none; background-color: #ffffff" class="">Shifting social-ecological fire regimes explain increasing structure loss from Western wildfires</span></div><div style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; color: rgb(38, 38, 38);" class=""><span style="font-kerning: none; background-color: #ffffff" class=""><br class=""></span></div><div style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; color: rgb(117, 117, 117); background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); min-height: 17px;" class=""><span style="font-kerning: none" class=""><a href="https://www.eurekalert.org/news-releases/978427" class=""><i class=""></i></a></span><br class=""></div><div style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; color: rgb(251, 2, 7);" class=""><span style="font-kerning: none" class="">~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~</span></div><div style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; color: rgb(117, 117, 117); min-height: 17px;" class=""><span style="font-kerning: none" class=""><a href="https://www.eurekalert.org/news-releases/978427" class=""></a></span><br class=""></div><div style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal;" class=""><b class="">Watching for flash drought</b></div><div style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; min-height: 17px;" class=""><b class=""></b><br class=""></div><div style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal;" class=""><b class="">Excerpts</b></div><div style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal;" class=""><br class="">
It wasn’t too long ago--in 2012--that a promising-looking spring morphed into a terrible summer for the U.S. Midwest. … punishing farmers and ranchers and facilitating the loss of <a href="https://stateimpact.npr.org/texas/2012/07/23/the-drought-killed-texas-trees-but-not-how-you-might-think/" class="">roughly 10% of all trees in Texas</a>. </div><div style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; min-height: 17px;" class=""><br class=""></div><div style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal;" class=""><span style="background-color: #ffff0a" class="">The real shocker was how quickly drought conditions took hold further north</span> across the Midwest in the summer of 2012, leading to <a href="https://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/historic-2012-us-drought-continues-to-expand-and-intensify" class="">the most widespread U.S. drought conditions since the 1930s</a>. </div><div style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal;" class="">“Nobody called that [in advance],” said Mark Svoboda (National Drought Mitigation Center). </div><div style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; min-height: 17px;" class=""><br class=""></div><div style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal;" class="">While long-term drought can emerge simply through a lack of precipitation, <span style="background-color: #ffff0a" class="">a flash drought is closely linked to hot summer weather. </span></div><div style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); min-height: 17px;" class=""><br class=""></div><div style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal;" class=""><span style="background-color: #ffff0a" class="">If the heat is strong and sustained enough, the landscape quickly dries out and a flash drought takes hold.</span></div><div style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; min-height: 17px;" class=""><br class=""></div><div style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; color: rgb(0, 0, 255);" class=""><span style="text-decoration: underline" class=""><a href="https://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/could-the-imminent-us-heat-wave-trigger-a-flash-drought" class="">https://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/could-the-imminent-us-heat-wave-trigger-a-flash-drought<span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 255);" class=""></span></a></span></div><div style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; min-height: 17px;" class=""><br class=""></div><div style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; min-height: 17px;" class=""><br class=""></div><div style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; color: rgb(26, 26, 26); min-height: 17px;" class=""><br class=""></div><div style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; color: rgb(251, 2, 7);" class=""><span style="font-kerning: none" class="">~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~</span></div><div style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; color: rgb(251, 2, 7); min-height: 17px;" class=""><span style="font-kerning: none" class=""></span><br class=""></div><div style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal;" class=""><span style="font-kerning: none" class=""><b class="">“Whereas any one line of evidence may be weak in itself, a number of lines of evidence, taken together and found to be consistent, reinforce one another exponentially.”</b></span></div><div style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; min-height: 17px;" class=""><span style="font-kerning: none" class=""></span><br class=""></div><div style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal;" class=""><span style="font-kerning: none" class="">Preston Cloud and Aharon Gibor. The Oxygen Cycle. </span></div><div style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal;" class=""><span style="font-kerning: none" class=""><i class="">Scientific American,</i> September 1970</span></div><div class=""><span style="font-kerning: none" class=""><br class=""></span></div><div class="">
<div style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family: Verdana; font-size: 14px; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: auto; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: auto; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-size-adjust: auto; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;">=================================<br class=""><br class="">“As an endangered species and an endangering one, we need, collectively, all the self-understanding and self-direction that we can muster.” <br class=""><br class="">M. Brewster Smith. “Perspectives on Selfhood.”<br class="">American Psychologist, December 1978<br class=""><br class="">==================================<br class=""><br class="">"Diversity will almost certainly rebound after the current extinction event; however, it may be composed of species descended from a different, as yet unknown, subset of lineages from those that dominate now, and humans will likely not be included among them."<br class=""><br class="">T. Jonathan Davies, et al. Phylogenetic trees and the future of mammalian biodiversity.<br class=""><br class="">Proceedings National Academy of Sciences<br class="">August 12, 2008 vol. 105</div>
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