<html><head><meta http-equiv="Content-Type" content="text/html; charset=utf-8"></head><body style="word-wrap: break-word; -webkit-nbsp-mode: space; line-break: after-white-space;" class=""><div style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; background-color: rgb(251, 251, 251);" class=""><br class=""></div><div style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; color: rgb(251, 2, 7); min-height: 17px;" class=""><span style="font-kerning: none" class=""></span><br class=""></div><div style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal;" class=""><span style="font-kerning: none" class="">Scientific Reports <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-023-27670-9#article-info" class=""><span style="-webkit-font-kerning: none; color: rgb(10, 82, 135); background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);" class="">13 January 2023</span></a></span></div><div style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal;" class=""><span style="font-kerning: none" class=""><a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-023-27670-9" class="">https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-023-27670-9</a></span></div><div style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; min-height: 17px;" class=""><span style="font-kerning: none" class=""></span><br class=""></div><p style="margin: 0px 0px 12px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal;" class=""><span style="font-kerning: none; background-color: #ffffff" class=""><b class="">Partial COVID‐19 closure</b></span><span style="font-kerning: none" class=""><b class=""> </b></span><span style="font-kerning: none; background-color: #ffffff" class=""><b class="">of a national park reveals negative </b></span><span style="font-kerning: none; background-color: #ffff0a" class=""><b class="">influence of low‐impact recreation </b></span><span style="font-kerning: none; background-color: #ffffff" class=""><b class="">on wildlife spatiotemporal ecology </b></span></p><p style="margin: 0px 0px 12px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal;" class=""><span style="font-kerning: none; background-color: #ffffff" class="">Alissa K. Anderson, John S. Waller</span><span style="vertical-align: 5.0px; font-kerning: none; background-color: #ffffff" class=""> </span><span style="font-kerning: none; background-color: #ffffff" class="">& Daniel H. Thornton</span></p><p style="margin: 0px 0px 12px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);" class=""><span style="font-kerning: none" class=""><b class="">Abstract</b></span></p><p style="margin: 0px 0px 12px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);" class=""><span style="font-kerning: none; background-color: #21ffff" class="">Human presence</span><span style="font-kerning: none; background-color: #ffff0a" class=""> exerts complex effects </span><span style="font-kerning: none" class="">on the ecology of species, which has implications for biodiversity persistence</span><span style="font-kerning: none; background-color: #ffff0a" class=""> in protected areas experiencing increasing human recreation levels. </span><span style="font-kerning: none" class="">However, the difficulty of separating the effect on species of human presence from other environmental or disturbance gradients remains a challenge. The cessation of human activity that occurred with COVID‐ 19 restrictions provides a ‘natural experiment’ to better understand the influence of human presence on wildlife. Here, we use a COVID‐19 closure within a </span><span style="font-kerning: none; background-color: #ffff0a" class="">heavily visited and highly protected national park (Glacier National Park, MT, USA) to examine how ‘low‐impact’ recreational hiking a</span><span style="font-kerning: none" class="">ffects the spatiotemporal ecology of a diverse mammal community. Based on data collected from camera traps when the park was closed and then subsequently open to recreation, we found consistent negative responses to human recreation across most of our assemblage of 24 species, with fewer detections, reduced site use, and decreased daytime activity. </span><span style="font-kerning: none; background-color: #ffff0a" class="">Our results suggest that </span><span style="font-kerning: none; background-color: #21ffff" class="">the dual mandates of national parks and protected areas to conserve biodiversity and promote recreation have potential to be in conflict, even for presumably innocuous recreational activities. </span><span style="font-kerning: none" class="">There is an urgent need</span><span style="-webkit-font-kerning: none;" class=""> </span><span style="font-kerning: none" class="">to understand the fitness consequences of these spatiotemporal changes to inform management decisions in protected areas. </span></p><div style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; color: rgb(26, 26, 26); min-height: 17px;" class=""><br class=""></div><div style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; color: rgb(251, 2, 7);" class=""><span style="font-kerning: none" class="">~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~</span></div><div style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; color: rgb(251, 2, 7); min-height: 17px;" class=""><span style="font-kerning: none" class=""></span><br class=""></div><div style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; color: rgb(10, 82, 135);" class=""><span style="font-kerning: none; color: #000000" class="">Nature <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/538141a#article-info" class=""><span style="-webkit-font-kerning: none; color: rgb(10, 82, 135); background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);" class="">Published: 11 October 2016</span></a></span></div><p style="margin: 0px 0px 16px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; color: rgb(26, 26, 26);" class=""><span style="font-kerning: none; background-color: #ffffff" class=""><b class="">It’s time to get real about conservation</b></span></p>
<ul style="list-style-type: none" class="">
<li style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; color: rgb(10, 82, 135);" class=""><span style="text-decoration: underline ; font-kerning: none; background-color: #ffffff" class=""><a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/538141a#auth-Aaron_M_-Ellison" class="">Aaron M. Ellison</a></span><span style="font-kerning: none; color: #1a1a1a; background-color: #ffffff" class=""> </span></li></ul><div class=""><font color="#1a1a1a" class=""><span style="caret-color: rgb(26, 26, 26);" class=""><b class="">Opening paragraphs</b></span></font></div><ul style="list-style-type: none" class=""><li style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; color: rgb(26, 26, 26); min-height: 17px;" class=""><span style="font-kerning: none" class=""></span></li>
</ul><p style="margin: 0px 0px 28px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; color: rgb(26, 26, 26);" class=""><span style="-webkit-font-kerning: none; background-color: rgb(255, 251, 0);" class="">How can scientists protect biodiversity?</span><span style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); -webkit-font-kerning: none;" class=""> In the wake of August’s Great Elephant Census, which revealed a precipitous decline in numbers throughout Africa,</span><span style="-webkit-font-kerning: none; background-color: rgb(0, 253, 255);" class=""> there were the usual calls from researchers for more and better d</span><span style="background-color: rgb(0, 253, 255);" class=""><span style="-webkit-font-kerning: none;" class="">a</span><span style="-webkit-font-kerning: none;" class="">ta.</span><span style="-webkit-font-kerning: none;" class=""> </span></span><span style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); -webkit-font-kerning: none;" class="">Only if we know where and how many of each species there are, this argument goes, can we hope to conserve them. </span></p><p style="margin: 0px 0px 28px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; color: rgb(26, 26, 26);" class=""><span style="font-kerning: none; background-color: #ffff0a" class="">This is nonsense.</span></p><p style="margin: 0px 0px 28px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; color: rgb(26, 26, 26); background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);" class=""><span style="font-kerning: none" class="">Better data will not save elephants, rhinos or any other species. An enormous number of individuals, academic institutions, local, state and national governments, and multinational and non-governmental </span><span style="font-kerning: none; background-color: #ffff0a" class="">organizations have been collecting, assimilating and organizing such data for decades, essentially fiddling while our biological heritage burns.</span></p><div style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; color: rgb(251, 2, 7);" class=""><span style="font-kerning: none" class="">~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~</span></div><div style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; min-height: 17px;" class=""><br class=""></div><div style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal;" class="">“ … <span style="background-color: #21ffff" class="">recovery</span><span style="background-color: #ffff0a" class=""> rates decrease as a catastrophic regime shift is approached, a phenomenon known in physics as “critical slowing down.” </span> …. In all the models we analyzed, critical slowing down becomes apparent quite far from a threshold point, suggesting that it may indeed be of practical use as an <span style="background-color: #21ffff" class="">early warning signal..”</span></div><div style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; min-height: 17px;" class=""><br class=""></div><div style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal;" class="">Egbert H. van Nes and Marten Scheffer. <span style="background-color: rgb(0, 253, 255);" class=""> Slow Recovery</span><span style="background-color: #ffff0a" class=""> </span>from Perturbations as a Generic Indicator of a Nearby Catastrophic Shift<i class="">. The American Naturalist</i> June 2007</div><div style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; color: rgb(251, 2, 7); min-height: 17px;" class=""><span style="font-kerning: none" class=""></span><br class=""></div><div style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; color: rgb(251, 2, 7);" class=""><span style="font-kerning: none" class="">~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~</span></div><div style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; color: rgb(251, 2, 7); min-height: 17px;" class=""><span style="font-kerning: none" class=""></span><br class=""></div><div style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal;" class=""><span style="font-kerning: none" class="">Proceedings of the National Academies of Science</span></div><div style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; min-height: 17px;" class=""><span style="font-kerning: none" class=""></span><br class=""></div><p style="margin: 0px 0px 12px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal;" class=""><span style="font-kerning: none" class=""><b class="">Turning back from the brink: Detecting an impending regime shift in time to avert it </b></span></p><p style="margin: 0px 0px 12px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal;" class=""><span style="font-kerning: none" class="">Reinette Biggs, Stephen R. Carpenter, and William A. Brock </span></p><p style="margin: 0px 0px 12px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal;" class=""><span style="font-kerning: none; background-color: #ffff0a" class="">Ecological regime shifts are large, abrupt, long-lasting changes in ecosystems that often have considerable impacts on human economies and societies.</span><span style="font-kerning: none" class=""> Avoiding unintentional regime shifts is widely regarded as desirable, but prediction of ecological regime shifts is notoriously difficult. </span><span style="font-kerning: none; background-color: #ffff0a" class="">Recent research indicates that changes in ecological time series (e.g., increased variability and autocorrelation) could potentially serve as </span><span style="font-kerning: none; background-color: #21ffff" class="">early warning indicators</span><span style="font-kerning: none; background-color: #ffff0a" class=""> </span><span style="font-kerning: none" class=""><span style="background-color: rgb(255, 251, 0);" class="">of impending shifts.</span> A critical question, however, is whether such indicators provide sufficient warning to adapt management to avert regime shifts. We examine this question using a fisheries model, with regime shifts driven by angling (amenable to rapid reduction) or shoreline development (only gradual restoration is possible). The model represents key features of a broad class of ecological regime shifts. </span><span style="font-kerning: none; background-color: #ffff0a" class="">We find that if drivers can only be manipulated gradually management action is needed substantially before a regime shift to avert it; if drivers can be rapidly altered aversive action may be delayed until a shift is underway. Large increases in the indicators only occur once a regime shift is initiated, often too late for management to avert a shift.</span><span style="font-kerning: none" class=""> To improve usefulness in averting regime shifts, we suggest that research focus on defining critical indicator levels rather than detecting change in the indicators. Ideally, critical indicator levels should be related to switches in ecosystem attractors; we present a new spectral density ratio indicator to this end. </span><span style="font-kerning: none; background-color: #ffff0a" class="">Averting ecological regime shifts is also dependent on developing policy processes that enable society to respond more rapidly to information about impending regime shifts. </span></p><div style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; min-height: 17px;" class=""><span style="font-kerning: none" class=""></span><br class=""></div><div style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; color: rgb(251, 2, 7);" class=""><span style="font-kerning: none" class="">———————————————————————</span></div><div style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; color: rgb(251, 2, 7); min-height: 17px;" class=""><span style="font-kerning: none" class=""></span><br class=""></div><div style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal;" class=""><span style="font-kerning: none" class="">“Whereas any one line of evidence may be weak in itself, a number of lines of evidence, taken together and found to be consistent, reinforce one another exponentially.”</span></div><div style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; min-height: 17px;" class=""><span style="font-kerning: none" class=""></span><br class=""></div><div style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal;" class=""><span style="font-kerning: none" class="">Preston Cloud and Aharon Gibor. The Oxygen Cycle. </span></div><div style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal;" class=""><span style="font-kerning: none" class=""><i class="">Scientific American,</i> September 1970</span></div><div style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal;" class=""><span style="font-kerning: none" class=""><br class=""></span></div><div style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal;" class=""><span style="font-kerning: none" class=""><span style="caret-color: rgb(251, 2, 7); color: rgb(251, 2, 7);" class="">———————————————————————</span></span></div><div style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal;" class=""><br class=""></div><div style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal;" class="">"Given the speed of climatic changes and numerous physiological constraints, it is unlikely that human physiology will evolve the necessary higher heat tolerance (21,22), highlighting that <span style="background-color: rgb(255, 251, 0);" class="">outdoor conditions</span> will remain deadly even if social adaptation is broadly implemented. “</div><div class=""><div dir="auto" style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0); letter-spacing: normal; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-wrap: break-word; -webkit-nbsp-mode: space; line-break: after-white-space;" class=""><div dir="auto" style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0); letter-spacing: normal; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-wrap: break-word; -webkit-nbsp-mode: space; line-break: after-white-space;" class=""><div style="word-wrap: break-word; -webkit-nbsp-mode: space; line-break: after-white-space;" class=""> <br class="">Mora et al. Global risk of deadly heat. Nature Climate Change. Published online 19 June 2017<br class="">DOI: 10.1038/NCLIMATE3322<br class=""> </div></div></div>
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