<html><head><meta http-equiv="Content-Type" content="text/html; charset=utf-8"></head><body style="word-wrap: break-word; -webkit-nbsp-mode: space; line-break: after-white-space;" class=""><div style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; background-color: rgb(251, 251, 251);" class=""><br class=""></div><div style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; background-color: rgb(251, 251, 251); min-height: 17px;" class=""><span style="font-kerning: none" class=""></span><br class=""></div><div style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; background-color: rgb(251, 251, 251);" class=""><span style="font-kerning: none" class="">Fossil fuels force human population control, just from their fine particle air pollution alone [ wildfires add to the effect ]</span></div><div style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; background-color: rgb(251, 251, 251); min-height: 17px;" class=""><span style="font-kerning: none" class=""></span><br class=""></div><div style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; background-color: rgb(251, 251, 251); min-height: 17px;" class=""><span style="font-kerning: none" class=""></span><br class=""></div><div style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal;" class=""><span style="font-kerning: none" class="">Environmental Research </span><span style="font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; font-family: Arial; -webkit-font-kerning: none; color: rgb(35, 35, 35);" class="">April 2021</span></div><div style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; font-size: 18px; line-height: normal; color: rgb(35, 35, 35); min-height: 22px;" class=""><span style="font-kerning: none" class=""><b class=""></b></span><br class=""></div><div style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; font-size: 18px; line-height: normal; color: rgb(35, 35, 35);" class=""><span style="font-kerning: none" class=""><b class="">Global mortality from outdoor fine particle pollution generated by fossil fuel combustion: Results from GEOS-Chem</b></span></div><div style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; font-size: 13px; line-height: normal; color: rgb(35, 35, 35); min-height: 16px;" class=""><span style="font-kerning: none" class=""></span><br class=""></div><div style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; font-size: 13px; line-height: normal; color: rgb(35, 35, 35);" class=""><span style="font-kerning: none" class="">Karn Vohra a, Alina Vodonos b, Joel Schwartz b, Eloise A. Marais c 1, Melissa P. Sulprizio d, Loretta J. Mickley d</span></div><div style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; font-size: 20px; line-height: normal; font-family: Arial; color: rgb(35, 35, 35); min-height: 23px;" class=""><span style="font-kerning: none" class=""></span><br class=""></div><div style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; font-size: 12.8px; line-height: normal; font-family: Arial; color: rgb(35, 35, 35); min-height: 15px;" class=""><span style="font-kerning: none" class=""></span><br class=""></div><div style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; font-size: 11.2px; line-height: normal; font-family: Arial; color: rgb(12, 95, 134);" class=""><span style="font-kerning: none" class=""><a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envres.2021.110754" class="">https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envres.2021.110754<span style="font-stretch: normal; font-size: 11.2px; line-height: normal; -webkit-font-kerning: none; color: rgb(12, 95, 134);" class=""></span></a></span></div><div style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; font-size: 11.2px; line-height: normal; font-family: Arial; color: rgb(12, 95, 134); min-height: 12px;" class=""><span style="font-kerning: none" class=""></span><br class=""></div><div style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; font-size: 20px; line-height: normal; font-family: Arial; color: rgb(35, 35, 35); min-height: 23px;" class=""><span style="font-kerning: none" class=""></span><br class=""></div><div style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; color: rgb(35, 35, 35);" class=""><span style="font-kerning: none" class=""><a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0013935121000487#" class="">https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0013935121000487#</a></span></div><div style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; font-size: 21px; line-height: normal; min-height: 25px;" class=""><span style="font-kerning: none" class=""><b class=""></b></span><br class=""></div><div style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; color: rgb(35, 35, 35);" class=""><span style="font-kerning: none" class="">Abstract</span></div><div style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; font-size: 21px; line-height: normal; color: rgb(35, 35, 35); min-height: 25px;" class=""><span style="font-kerning: none" class=""></span><br class=""></div><div style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; color: rgb(35, 35, 35);" class=""><span style="font-kerning: none; background-color: #ffff0a" class="">The burning of fossil fuels – especially coal, petrol, and diesel – is a major source of airborne <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/topics/earth-and-planetary-sciences/fine-particulate-matter" class=""><span style="-webkit-font-kerning: none;" class="">fine particulate matter</span></a> (PM2.5), and a key contributor to the global burden of mortality and disease.</span><span style="font-kerning: none" class=""> Previous risk assessments have examined the health response to total PM2.5, not just PM2.5 from fossil <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/topics/earth-and-planetary-sciences/fuel-combustion" class=""><span style="-webkit-font-kerning: none; color: rgb(35, 35, 35);" class="">fuel combustion</span></a>, and have used a concentration-response function with limited support from the literature and data at both high and low concentrations</span><span style="font-kerning: none; background-color: #ffff0a" class="">. This assessment examines </span><span style="font-kerning: none; background-color: #21ffff" class="">mortality</span><span style="font-kerning: none; background-color: #ffff0a" class=""> associated with PM2.5</span><span style="background-color: rgb(0, 253, 255);" class=""><span style="-webkit-font-kerning: none;" class=""> from </span><span style="-webkit-font-kerning: none;" class="">o</span></span><span style="font-kerning: none; background-color: #21ffff" class="">nly</span><span style="font-kerning: none; background-color: #ffff0a" class=""> fossil <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/topics/earth-and-planetary-sciences/fuel-combustion" class=""><span style="-webkit-font-kerning: none;" class="">fuel combustion</span></a>, </span><span style="font-kerning: none" class="">making use of a recent meta-analysis of newer studies with a wider range of exposure.</span><span style="font-kerning: none; background-color: #ffff0a" class=""> We also estimated mortality due to lower respiratory infections (LRI) among children under the age of five in the Americas and Europe,</span><span style="font-kerning: none" class=""> regions for which we have reliable data on the relative risk of this health outcome from PM2.5 exposure. We used the chemical transport model GEOS-Chem to estimate global exposure levels to fossil-fuel related PM2.5 in 2012. Relative risks of mortality were modeled using functions that link long-term exposure to PM2.5 and mortality, incorporating nonlinearity in the concentration response.</span><span style="font-kerning: none; background-color: #ffff0a" class=""> We estimate a global total of 10.2 (95% CI: −47.1 to 17.0) million premature deaths annually attributable to the fossil-fuel component of PM2.5.</span><span style="font-kerning: none" class=""> The greatest mortality impact is estimated over regions with substantial fossil fuel related PM2.5, notably China (3.9 million), India (2.5 million) and parts of eastern US, Europe and Southeast Asia. The estimate for China predates substantial decline in fossil fuel emissions and decreases to 2.4 million premature deaths due to 43.7% reduction in fossil fuel PM2.5 from 2012 to 2018 bringing the global total to 8.7 (95% CI: −1.8 to 14.0) million premature deaths. We also estimated excess annual deaths due to LRI in children (0–4 years old) of 876 in North America, 747 in South America, and 605 in Europe. </span><span style="font-kerning: none; background-color: #ffff0a" class="">This study demonstrates that the fossil fuel component of PM2.5 contributes a large mortality burden. </span><span style="font-kerning: none; background-color: #ffffff" class="">The steeper concentration-response function slope at lower concentrations leads to larger estimates than previously found in Europe and North America, and the slower drop-off in slope at higher concentrations resu</span><span style="font-kerning: none; background-color: #ffff0a" class="">lts in larger estimates in Asia. Fossil fuel combustion can be more readily controlled than other sources and precursors of PM2.5 such as dust </span><span style="font-kerning: none; background-color: #21ffff" class=""><b class="">or wildfire smoke</b></span><span style="font-kerning: none; background-color: #ffff0a" class="">, </span><span style="font-kerning: none" class="">so this is a clear message to policymakers and stakeholders to further incentivize a shift to clean sources of energy.</span></div><div style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; min-height: 17px;" class=""><span style="font-kerning: none" class=""></span><br class=""></div><div style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; color: rgb(251, 2, 7);" class=""><span style="font-kerning: none" class="">==============</span></div><div style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; color: rgb(251, 2, 7);" class=""><span style="font-kerning: none" class="">==============</span></div><div style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; min-height: 17px;" class=""><span style="font-kerning: none" class=""></span><br class=""></div><div style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; color: rgb(148, 149, 168);" class=""><span style="font-kerning: none; background-color: #ffffff" class="">MARCH 1, 2023 <a href="https://phys.org/editorials/" class=""><span style="font-kerning: none; color: #1189ee" class=""><b class="">REPORT</b></span></a></span></div><p style="margin: 0px 0px 6px; font-stretch: normal; font-size: 18px; line-height: normal; color: rgb(25, 26, 42); background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);" class=""><span style="font-kerning: none" class=""><b class="">Global warming could lead to increase in 'hot lightning' strikes causing more wildfires</b></span></p><div style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; color: rgb(148, 149, 168); background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);" class=""><span style="font-kerning: none" class="">by Bob Yirka , <a href="http://phys.org/" class=""><span style="-webkit-font-kerning: none; color: rgb(16, 60, 192);" class="">Phys.org</span></a></span></div><div style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; color: rgb(25, 26, 42); min-height: 17px;" class=""><span style="font-kerning: none" class=""></span><br class=""></div><p style="margin: 0px 0px 21px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; color: rgb(25, 26, 42); background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);" class=""><span style="font-kerning: none" class="">A combined team of Earth scientists from multiple institutions has found evidence that suggests that in the coming years, a warming planet could lead to more "hot lightning" strikes that could cause more wildfires in many parts of the world. In their paper published in the journal <i class="">Nature Communications,</i> the group describes studying the types of lightning strikes that lead to wildfires and the likelihood of their increase as global warming progresses.</span></p><p style="margin: 0px 0px 21px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; color: rgb(25, 26, 42);" class=""><span style="font-kerning: none; background-color: #ffffff" class="">The work began with an analysis of satellite images of U.S. wildfires over the years 1992 to 2018. By studying the types of lightning strikes that occurred and comparing them with resulting wildfires, </span><span style="font-kerning: none; background-color: #ffff0a" class="">the team found that wildfires are more likely to start due to hot lightning strikes, which the group describes as strikes that last much longer than average. They found that approximately 90% of the fires they observed got their start this way. Such strikes can last from around 40 milliseconds to nearly a third of a second. Longer strike times transfer more heat to flammable material such as trees, shrubs and even grass.</span></p><p style="margin: 0px 0px 21px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; color: rgb(25, 26, 42); background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);" class=""><span style="font-kerning: none" class="">The researchers then looked at the rate of such lightning strikes over time. Computer simulations showed higher frequency as the atmosphere warms. And <a href="https://phys.org/tags/climate+models/" class=""><span style="-webkit-font-kerning: none;" class="">climate models</span></a> showed that such strikes could increase from three strikes per second globally to four strikes per second. They note that the models also showed all types of lightning strikes increasing by 2090, representing a 28% increase.</span></p><p style="margin: 0px 0px 21px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; color: rgb(25, 26, 42);" class=""><span style="font-kerning: none; background-color: #ffffff" class="">The team then looked at which parts of the globe are most likely to see more hot lightning strikes as the planet warms and <a href="https://phys.org/tags/weather+patterns/" class=""><span style="font-kerning: none; color: #000000" class="">weather patterns</span></a> change as a result. They found that parts of South America, Southeast Asia, Australia and Africa are all at risk. But </span><span style="font-kerning: none; background-color: #ffff0a" class="">they found the most dramatic increase will likely be in North America. On the other hand, the models showed that the <a href="https://phys.org/tags/polar+regions/" class=""><span style="font-kerning: none; color: #000000" class="">polar regions</span></a> are likely to see fewer wildfires as rain amounts will likely increase there.</span></p><div style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; color: rgb(25, 26, 42); background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);" class=""><span style="font-kerning: none" class="">More information: Francisco J. Pérez-Invernón et al, Variation of lightning-ignited wildfire patterns under climate change, <i class="">Nature Communications</i> (2023). <a href="https://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41467-023-36500-5" class=""><span style="-webkit-font-kerning: none; color: rgb(55, 103, 233);" class="">DOI: 10.1038/s41467-023-36500-5</span></a></span></div><div style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; font-size: 10px; line-height: normal; font-family: Arial; color: rgb(55, 103, 233); background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); min-height: 11px;" class=""><span style="font-kerning: none" class=""></span><br class=""></div><div style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; font-size: 10px; line-height: normal; font-family: Arial; color: rgb(55, 103, 233); background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); min-height: 11px;" class=""><span style="font-kerning: none" class=""></span><br class=""></div><div style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; font-size: 10px; line-height: normal; font-family: Arial; color: rgb(55, 103, 233); background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); min-height: 11px;" class=""><span style="font-kerning: none" class=""></span><br class=""></div><div style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; font-size: 10px; line-height: normal; font-family: Arial; color: rgb(25, 26, 42); min-height: 11px;" class=""><span style="font-kerning: none" class=""></span><br class=""></div><div style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal;" class=""><span style="font-kerning: none" class="">Fossil fuel air pollution responsible for 1 in 5 deaths worldwide</span></div><div style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal;" class=""><span style="font-kerning: none" class=""><a href="https://www.hsph.harvard.edu" class="">https://www.hsph.harvard.edu</a> › c-change › news › foss...</span></div><div style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; min-height: 17px;" class=""><span style="font-kerning: none" class=""></span><br class=""></div><div style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal;" class=""><span style="font-kerning: none" class="">Feb 9, 2021 — The study, “Global Mortality From Outdoor Fine Particle Pollution Generated by Fossil Fuel Combustion,” published in Environmental Research, …</span></div><div style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; min-height: 17px;" class=""><span style="font-kerning: none" class=""></span><br class=""></div><div style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal;" class=""><span style="font-kerning: none" class="">================</span></div><div style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; min-height: 17px;" class=""><span style="font-kerning: none" class=""></span><br class=""></div><div style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal;" class=""><span style="font-kerning: none" class="">Deaths from fossil fuel emissions higher than previously thought</span></div><div style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; min-height: 17px;" class=""><span style="font-kerning: none" class=""></span><br class=""></div><div style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal;" class=""><span style="font-kerning: none" class=""><a href="https://www.seas.harvard.edu" class="">https://www.seas.harvard.edu</a> › news › 2021/02 › death...</span></div><div style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; min-height: 17px;" class=""><span style="font-kerning: none" class=""></span><br class=""></div><div style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal;" class=""><span style="font-kerning: none" class="">Feb 9, 2021 — More than 8 million people died in 2018 from fossil fuel pollution, significantly higher than previous research suggested, according to new ...</span></div><div style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; min-height: 17px;" class=""><span style="font-kerning: none" class=""></span><br class=""></div><div style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal;" class=""><span style="font-kerning: none" class="">================</span></div><div style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; min-height: 17px;" class=""><span style="font-kerning: none" class=""></span><br class=""></div><div style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal;" class=""><span style="font-kerning: none" class="">Fossil fuel air pollution responsible for 1 in 5 deaths worldwide</span></div><div style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal;" class=""><span style="font-kerning: none" class=""><a href="https://www.ucl.ac.uk" class="">https://www.ucl.ac.uk</a> › news › feb › fossil-fuel-air-poll...</span></div><div style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; min-height: 17px;" class=""><span style="font-kerning: none" class=""></span><br class=""></div><div style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal;" class=""><span style="font-kerning: none" class="">Feb 9, 2021 — An estimated 1 in 5 deaths (18 to 21.5%) every year can be attributed to fossil fuel pollution, a figure much higher than previously thought ...</span></div><div style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; min-height: 17px;" class=""><span style="font-kerning: none" class=""></span><br class=""></div><div style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal;" class=""><span style="font-kerning: none" class="">================</span></div><div style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; min-height: 17px;" class=""><span style="font-kerning: none" class=""></span><br class=""></div><div style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal;" class=""><span style="font-kerning: none" class="">'Invisible killer': fossil fuels caused 8.7m deaths globally in ...</span></div><div style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal;" class=""><span style="font-kerning: none" class=""><a href="https://www.theguardian.com" class="">https://www.theguardian.com</a> › environment › feb › fos...</span></div><div style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; min-height: 17px;" class=""><span style="font-kerning: none" class=""></span><br class=""></div><div style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal;" class=""><span style="font-kerning: none" class="">Feb 9, 2021 — Air pollution caused by the burning of fossil fuels such as coal and oil was responsible for 8.7m deaths globally in 2018, a staggering one ...</span></div><div class=""><span style="font-kerning: none" class=""><br class=""></span></div><div class="">
<meta charset="UTF-8" class=""><div><br class="">==============</div><div><br class="">Fossil fuel air pollution responsible for 1 in 5 deaths worldwide<br class=""><a href="https://www.hsph.harvard.edu" class="">https://www.hsph.harvard.edu</a> › c-change › news › foss...<br class=""><br class="">Feb 9, 2021 — The study, “Global Mortality From Outdoor Fine Particle Pollution Generated by Fossil Fuel Combustion,” published in Environmental Research, …</div><div><br class="">================<br class=""><br class="">Deaths from fossil fuel emissions higher than previously thought<br class=""><br class=""><a href="https://www.seas.harvard.edu" class="">https://www.seas.harvard.edu</a> › news › 2021/02 › death...<br class=""><br class="">Feb 9, 2021 — More than 8 million people died in 2018 from fossil fuel pollution, significantly higher than previous research suggested, according to new ...<br class=""><br class="">================<br class=""><br class="">Fossil fuel air pollution responsible for 1 in 5 deaths worldwide<br class=""><a href="https://www.ucl.ac.uk" class="">https://www.ucl.ac.uk</a> › news › feb › fossil-fuel-air-poll...<br class=""><br class="">Feb 9, 2021 — An estimated 1 in 5 deaths (18 to 21.5%) every year can be attributed to fossil fuel pollution, a figure much higher than previously thought ...<br class=""><br class="">================<br class=""><br class="">'Invisible killer': fossil fuels caused 8.7m deaths globally in ...<br class=""><a href="https://www.theguardian.com" class="">https://www.theguardian.com</a> › environment › feb › fos...<br class=""><br class="">Feb 9, 2021 — Air pollution caused by the burning of fossil fuels such as coal and oil was responsible for 8.7m deaths globally in 2018, a staggering one ...</div>
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