<html><head><meta http-equiv="Content-Type" content="text/html; charset=utf-8"></head><body style="word-wrap: break-word; -webkit-nbsp-mode: space; line-break: after-white-space;" class=""><div style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; background-color: rgb(251, 251, 251);" class=""><br class=""></div><div style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; background-color: rgb(251, 251, 251); min-height: 17px;" class=""><span style="font-kerning: none" class=""></span><br class=""></div><div style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; background-color: rgb(251, 251, 251);" class=""><br class=""></div><div style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal;" class=""><span style="font-kerning: none; background-color: #ffffff" class=""><a href="https://www.eurekalert.org/news-releases/982313" class="">10-Mar-2023<span style="font-kerning: none" class=""></span></a></span></div><div style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; min-height: 17px;" class=""><span style="font-kerning: none" class=""><a href="https://www.eurekalert.org/news-releases/982313" class=""></a></span><br class=""></div><div style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal;" class=""><span style="font-kerning: none; background-color: #ffffff" class=""><a href="https://www.eurekalert.org/news-releases/982313" class=""><b class="">Earth Map works in tandem with its users to achieve a more conscious, climate-aware and environmental-friendly world</b><span style="font-kerning: none" class=""><b class=""></b></span></a></span></div><div style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal;" class=""><span style="font-kerning: none; background-color: #ffffff" class=""><a href="https://www.eurekalert.org/news-releases/982313" class="">JOURNAL OF REMOTE SENSING<span style="font-kerning: none" class=""></span></a></span></div><div style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal;" class=""><span style="font-kerning: none; background-color: #ffffff" class=""><a href="https://www.eurekalert.org/news-releases/982313" class="">PEER-REVIEWED PUBLICATION<span style="font-kerning: none" class=""></span></a></span></div><div style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; min-height: 17px;" class=""><span style="font-kerning: none" class=""><a href="https://www.eurekalert.org/news-releases/982313" class=""></a></span><br class=""></div><div style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);" class=""><span style="font-kerning: none" class=""><a href="https://www.eurekalert.org/news-releases/982313" class="">Earth Map is a versatile, user-friendly tool developed using the Google Earth Engine (GEE). This <span style="font-kerning: none; background-color: #ffff0a" class="">allows users of Earth Map around the world to submit and access data to make information actionable when it comes to monitoring and understanding the impact of climate change</span><span style="-webkit-font-kerning: none;" class="">. By making elements of Google Earth Engine (GEE) more user-friendly and lessening the steep learning curve to the software, Earth Map was developed. </span></a></span></div><div style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; min-height: 17px;" class=""><span style="font-kerning: none" class=""><a href="https://www.eurekalert.org/news-releases/982313" class=""></a></span><br class=""></div><div style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);" class=""><span style="font-kerning: none; background-color: #ffff0a" class=""><a href="https://www.eurekalert.org/news-releases/982313" class="">Its potential to be used to assess land and resource use, land use change,<span style="font-kerning: none; background-color: #ffffff" class=""> climate change impacts, and natural disasters can prove invaluable to global efforts against climate change.</span></a></span></div><div style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; min-height: 17px;" class=""><span style="font-kerning: none" class=""><a href="https://www.eurekalert.org/news-releases/982313" class=""></a></span><br class=""></div><div style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; color: rgb(9, 79, 209); background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);" class=""><span style="text-decoration: underline ; font-kerning: none" class=""><a href="https://www.eurekalert.org/news-releases/982313" class="">https://www.eurekalert.org/news-releases/982313</a></span></div><div style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); min-height: 17px;" class=""><span style="font-kerning: none" class=""><a href="https://www.eurekalert.org/news-releases/982313" class=""><i class=""></i></a></span><br class=""></div><div style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);" class=""><span style="font-kerning: none" class=""><a href="https://www.eurekalert.org/news-releases/982313" class=""><b class=""><i class="">Journal of Remote Sensing</i></b><span style="-webkit-font-kerning: none;" class=""><b class=""><i class=""></i></b></span></a></span></div><div style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; color: rgb(9, 79, 209); background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); min-height: 17px;" class=""><span style="text-decoration: underline ; font-kerning: none" class=""></span><br class=""></div><div style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; color: rgb(71, 71, 71); background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);" class=""><span style="text-decoration: underline ; font-kerning: none" class=""><a href="https://doi.org/10.34133/remotesensing.0003" class="">DOI: 10.34133/remotesensing.0003<span style="-webkit-font-kerning: none; color: rgb(71, 71, 71);" class=""></span></a></span></div><div style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; background-color: rgb(251, 251, 251); min-height: 17px;" class=""><span style="font-kerning: none" class=""></span><br class=""></div><div style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; background-color: rgb(251, 251, 251); min-height: 17px;" class=""><span style="font-kerning: none" class=""></span><br class=""></div><div style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; font-size: 12px; line-height: normal; color: rgb(251, 2, 7); background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);" class=""><span style="font-kerning: none" class=""><b class="">#########################</b></span></div><div style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; font-size: 12px; line-height: normal; color: rgb(251, 2, 7); background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);" class=""><span style="font-kerning: none" class=""><b class=""><br class=""></b></span></div><div style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; font-size: 12px; line-height: normal; color: rgb(251, 2, 7); background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);" class=""><span style="font-kerning: none" class=""><div style="caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-size: 14px; margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; background-color: rgb(251, 251, 251);" class=""><span style="-webkit-font-kerning: none;" class="">To predict where a hotter world will first kill an animal or plant, find maps showing lowest elevations at lowest latitudes of that species’ range</span></div><div style="caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-size: 14px; margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; min-height: 17px;" class=""><span style="-webkit-font-kerning: none;" class=""></span><br class=""></div></span></div><div style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; color: rgb(251, 2, 7); background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); min-height: 17px;" class=""><span style="font-kerning: none" class=""><b class=""></b></span><br class=""></div><div style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; color: rgb(21, 22, 23); min-height: 17px;" class=""><span style="font-kerning: none" class=""></span><br class=""></div><div style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; color: rgb(21, 22, 23); background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);" class=""><span style="font-kerning: none" class="">Ecological Monographs </span><span style="font-kerning: none; color: #787878" class="">First published: </span><span style="font-kerning: none" class="">18 November 2022</span><span style="font-kerning: none; color: #636363" class=""> </span></div><div style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; color: rgb(99, 99, 99); background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); min-height: 17px;" class=""><span style="font-kerning: none" class=""></span><br class=""></div><div style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; color: rgb(8, 64, 97); background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);" class=""><span style="font-kerning: none" class=""><a href="https://doi.org/10.1002/ecm.1559" class=""><b class="">https://doi.org/10.1002/ecm.1559</b><span style="-webkit-font-kerning: none; color: rgb(8, 64, 97);" class=""><b class=""></b></span></a></span></div><div style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; color: rgb(89, 15, 100); min-height: 17px;" class=""><span style="font-kerning: none" class=""></span><br class=""></div><div style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; color: rgb(89, 15, 100);" class=""><span style="font-kerning: none; background-color: #ffffff" class=""><b class="">Open Access</b></span></div><div style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; color: rgb(21, 22, 23); min-height: 17px;" class=""><span style="font-kerning: none" class=""><a href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/" class=""></a></span><br class=""></div><div style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; color: rgb(21, 22, 23); min-height: 17px;" class=""><span style="font-kerning: none" class=""><a href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/" class=""></a></span><br class=""></div><p style="margin: 0px 0px 6px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; color: rgb(21, 22, 23);" class=""><span style="font-kerning: none; background-color: #ffffff" class=""><b class="">Climate-mediated population dynamics of a migratory songbird differ between the trailing edge and range core</b></span></p><div style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; color: rgb(21, 22, 23); min-height: 17px;" class=""><span style="font-kerning: none" class=""></span><br class=""></div><div style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; color: rgb(8, 64, 97);" class=""><span style="font-kerning: none; background-color: #ffffff" class=""><a href="https://esajournals.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/action/doSearch?ContribAuthorRaw=Lewis%2C+William+B" class="">William B. Lewis</a></span><span style="font-kerning: none; color: #787878; background-color: #ffffff" class="">, <a href="https://esajournals.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/action/doSearch?ContribAuthorRaw=Cooper%2C+Robert+J" class=""><span style="font-kerning: none; color: #084061" class="">Robert J. Cooper</span></a>, <a href="https://esajournals.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/action/doSearch?ContribAuthorRaw=Chandler%2C+Richard+B" class=""><span style="font-kerning: none; color: #084061" class="">Richard B. Chandler</span></a>, <a href="https://esajournals.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/action/doSearch?ContribAuthorRaw=Chitwood%2C+Ryan+W" class=""><span style="font-kerning: none; color: #084061" class="">Ryan W. Chitwood</span></a>, <a href="https://esajournals.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/action/doSearch?ContribAuthorRaw=Cline%2C+Mason+H" class=""><span style="font-kerning: none; color: #084061" class="">Mason H. Cline</span></a>, <a href="https://esajournals.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/action/doSearch?ContribAuthorRaw=Hallworth%2C+Michael+T" class=""><span style="font-kerning: none; color: #084061" class="">Michael T. Hallworth</span></a>, <a href="https://esajournals.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/action/doSearch?ContribAuthorRaw=Hatt%2C+Joanna+L" class=""><span style="font-kerning: none; color: #084061" class="">Joanna L. Hatt</span></a>, <a href="https://esajournals.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/action/doSearch?ContribAuthorRaw=Hepinstall-Cymerman%2C+Jeff" class=""><span style="font-kerning: none; color: #084061" class="">Jeff Hepinstall-Cymerman</span></a>, <a href="https://esajournals.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/action/doSearch?ContribAuthorRaw=Kaiser%2C+Sara+A" class=""><span style="font-kerning: none; color: #084061" class="">Sara A. Kaiser</span></a><a href="https://esajournals.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/ecm.1559#" class=""><span style="font-kerning: none; color: #084061" class=""><b class=""> … See all authors </b></span></a></span></div><div style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; color: rgb(99, 99, 99); min-height: 17px;" class=""><span style="font-kerning: none" class=""></span><br class=""></div><div style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; color: rgb(25, 25, 25); min-height: 17px;" class=""><span style="font-kerning: none" class=""></span><br class=""></div><div style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; color: rgb(99, 99, 99);" class=""><span style="font-kerning: none; background-color: #ffffff" class=""><a class="">SECTIONS<span style="font-kerning: none; color: #636363" class=""></span></a></span></div><div style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; color: rgb(99, 99, 99);" class=""><span style="font-kerning: none; background-color: #ffffff" class=""><a href="https://esajournals.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/ecm.1559" class="">PDF<span style="font-kerning: none; color: #636363" class=""></span></a></span></div><div style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; color: rgb(99, 99, 99);" class=""><span style="font-kerning: none; background-color: #ffffff" class=""><a href="https://esajournals.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/ecm.1559#" class="">TOOLS</a></span><span style="font-kerning: none; color: #151617; background-color: #ffffff" class=""> <a href="https://esajournals.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/ecm.1559#" class=""><span style="font-kerning: none; color: #636363" class="">SHARE</span></a></span></div><div style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; color: rgb(21, 22, 23); background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); min-height: 17px;" class=""><span style="font-kerning: none" class=""></span><br class=""></div><div style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; color: rgb(50, 51, 54); background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);" class=""><span style="font-kerning: none" class="">Abstract</span></div><p style="margin: 0px 0px 16px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; color: rgb(21, 22, 23); background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);" class=""><span style="font-kerning: none" class="">Understanding the demographic drivers of</span><span style="font-kerning: none; background-color: #ffff0a" class=""> range contractions</span><span style="font-kerning: none" class=""> is important for predicting species' responses to climate change; however, few studies have examined the effects of climate change on survival and recruitment across species' ranges. </span><span style="font-kerning: none; background-color: #ffff0a" class="">We show that climate change can drive trailing edge range contractions</span><span style="font-kerning: none" class=""> through the effects on apparent survival, and potentially recruitment, in a migratory songbird. We assessed the demographic drivers of trailing edge range contractions using a long-term demography dataset for the black-throated blue warbler (<i class="">Setophaga caerulescens</i>)</span><span style="font-kerning: none; background-color: #ffff0a" class=""> collected across elevational climate gradients at the trailing edge and core of the breeding range.</span><span style="font-kerning: none" class=""> We used a Bayesian hierarchical model to estimate the effect of climate change on apparent survival and recruitment and to forecast population viability at study plots through 2040.</span><span style="font-kerning: none; background-color: #21ffff" class=""> The trailing edge population at the low-elevation plot became locally extinct by 2017.</span><span style="font-kerning: none" class=""> The local population at the mid-elevation plot at the trailing edge gradually declined and is predicted to become extirpated by 2040. Population declines were associated with warming temperatures at the mid-elevation plot, although results were more equivocal at the low-elevation plot where we had fewer years of data. </span><span style="font-kerning: none; background-color: #ffff0a" class="">Population density was stable or increasing at the range core, although warming temperatures are predicted to cause population declines by 2040 at the low-elevation plot.</span><span style="font-kerning: none; background-color: #21ffff" class=""> This result suggests that even populations within the geographic core of the range are vulnerable to climate change. </span><span style="font-kerning: none" class="">The demographic drivers of local population declines varied between study plots, but warming temperatures were frequently associated with declining rates of population growth and apparent survival. Declining apparent survival in our study system is likely to be associated with increased adult emigration away from poor-quality habitats. Our results suggest that demographic responses to warming temperatures are complex and dependent on local conditions and geographic range position, but spatial variation in population declines is consistent with the climate-mediated range shift hypothesis. Local populations of black-throated blue </span><span style="font-kerning: none; background-color: #ffff0a" class="">warblers near the warm-edge range boundary</span><span style="font-kerning: none; background-color: #21ffff" class=""> at low latitudes and low elevations </span><span style="font-kerning: none; background-color: #ffff0a" class="">are likely to be the most vulnerable to climate change, potentially leading to local extirpation and range contractions.</span></p><div class=""><div dir="auto" style="caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); letter-spacing: normal; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; text-decoration: none; word-wrap: break-word; -webkit-nbsp-mode: space; line-break: after-white-space;" class=""><div style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0); caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family: Verdana; font-size: 14px; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; text-decoration: none;"><br class=""></div><div style="caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family: Verdana; font-size: 14px; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; text-decoration: none;"><font color="#ff2600" class="">****************</font></div><div style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0); caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family: Verdana; font-size: 14px; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; text-decoration: none;"><br class=""></div><div style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0); caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family: Verdana; font-size: 14px; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; text-decoration: none;"><u class="">A 2020 report from the Canadian Council of Forest Ministers</u><span class="Apple-converted-space" style="font-style: italic;"> </span>identifies the trees species that are at highest risk in the foreseeable future: …. “While most tree species can migrate naturally up to a few hundred metres per year via seed dispersal,<span style="background-color: rgb(255, 251, 0);" class=""> the climatic conditions in which each species thrives may move north by several thousand metres per year.”</span></div><div style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0); caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family: Verdana; font-size: 14px; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; text-decoration: none;"><br class="">The Globe and Mail JANUARY 23, 2023<br class=""><b class="">Preparing for ‘Firmageddon,’ researchers watch B.C.’s forests for die-offs and droughts</b><br class="">JUSTINE HUNTER</div></div>
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