<html><head><meta http-equiv="Content-Type" content="text/html; charset=utf-8"></head><body style="word-wrap: break-word; -webkit-nbsp-mode: space; line-break: after-white-space;" class=""><div style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; color: rgb(38, 38, 38); -webkit-text-stroke-width: initial; -webkit-text-stroke-color: rgb(38, 38, 38);" class=""><span style="font-kerning: none" class=""><b class="">Climate change greatly escalates forest disturbance risks to US property values</b></span></div><div style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; color: rgb(38, 38, 38); -webkit-text-stroke-width: initial; -webkit-text-stroke-color: rgb(38, 38, 38);" class=""><span style="font-kerning: none" class="">William R L Anderegg, Timothy Collins, Sara Grineski, Sarah Nicholls and Christoph Nolte</span></div><p style="margin: 0px 0px 14px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; color: rgb(11, 89, 162); -webkit-text-stroke-width: initial; -webkit-text-stroke-color: rgb(11, 89, 162);" class=""><span style="-webkit-font-kerning: none; color: rgb(38, 38, 38); -webkit-text-stroke-color: rgb(38, 38, 38);" class="">Published 17 August 2023 • <br class="">
<a href="https://iopscience.iop.org/journal/1748-9326" class=""><span style="-webkit-font-kerning: none; color: rgb(11, 89, 162); -webkit-text-stroke-color: rgb(11, 89, 162);" class="">Environmental Research Letters</span></a>, <a href="https://iopscience.iop.org/volume/1748-9326/18" class=""><span style="-webkit-font-kerning: none; color: rgb(11, 89, 162); -webkit-text-stroke-color: rgb(11, 89, 162);" class="">Volume 18</span></a>, <a href="https://iopscience.iop.org/issue/1748-9326/18/9" class=""><span style="-webkit-font-kerning: none; color: rgb(11, 89, 162); -webkit-text-stroke-color: rgb(11, 89, 162);" class="">Number 9</span></a></span></p><div style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; color: rgb(38, 38, 38); -webkit-text-stroke-width: initial; -webkit-text-stroke-color: rgb(38, 38, 38);" class=""><span style="font-kerning: none" class=""><b class="">Citation</b> William R L Anderegg <i class="">et al</i> 2023 <i class="">Environ. Res. Lett.</i> <b class="">18</b> 094011</span></div><div style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; color: rgb(38, 38, 38); -webkit-text-stroke-width: initial; -webkit-text-stroke-color: rgb(38, 38, 38);" class=""><span style="font-kerning: none" class=""><b class="">DOI</b> 10.1088/1748-9326/ace639</span></div><div style="margin: 0px; text-align: center; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; color: rgb(255, 255, 255); -webkit-text-stroke-width: initial; -webkit-text-stroke-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); min-height: 17px;" class=""><span style="font-kerning: none" class=""><a href="https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/ace639/pdf" class=""></a></span><br class=""></div><div style="margin: 0px; text-align: center; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; color: rgb(255, 255, 255); -webkit-text-stroke-width: initial; -webkit-text-stroke-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);" class=""><span style="font-kerning: none; background-color: #ffffff" class=""><a href="https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/ace639/pdf" class="">Article PDF</a></span><span style="-webkit-font-kerning: none; color: rgb(38, 38, 38); background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); -webkit-text-stroke-color: rgb(38, 38, 38);" class=""> </span></div><p style="margin: 0px 0px 8.4px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; color: rgb(38, 38, 38); -webkit-text-stroke-width: initial; -webkit-text-stroke-color: rgb(38, 38, 38);" class=""><span style="font-kerning: none" class=""><b class="">862</b> Total downloads</span></p><p style="margin: 0px 0px 7.2px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; color: rgb(38, 38, 38); -webkit-text-stroke-width: initial; -webkit-text-stroke-color: rgb(38, 38, 38);" class=""><span style="font-kerning: none" class="">Abstract</span></p><p style="margin: 0px 0px 19.2px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; color: rgb(38, 38, 38); -webkit-text-stroke-width: initial; -webkit-text-stroke-color: rgb(38, 38, 38);" class=""><span style="font-kerning: none" class="">Anthropogenic climate change is projected to drive increases in climate extremes and climate-sensitive ecosystem disturbances such as wildfire with enormous economic impacts. Understanding spatial and temporal patterns of risk to property values from climate-sensitive disturbances at national and regional scales and from multiple disturbances is urgently needed to inform risk management and policy efforts. Here, we combine models for three major climate-sensitive disturbances (i.e., wildfire, climate stress-driven tree mortality, and insect-driven tree mortality), future climate projections of these disturbances, and high-resolution property values data to quantify the spatiotemporal exposure of property values to disturbance across the contiguous United States (US). <span style="background-color: rgb(255, 251, 0);" class="">We find that property values exposed to these climate-sensitive disturbances increase sharply in future climate scenarios, </span></span><span style="font-kerning: none; background-color: #ffff0a" class=""><b class="">particularly in existing high-risk regions of the western US</b></span><span style="font-kerning: none" class="">, and that novel exposure risks emerge in some currently lower-risk regions such as the southeast and Great Lakes regions. Climate policy that drives emissions towards low-to-moderate climate futures avoids large increases in disturbance risk exposure compared to high emissions scenarios. Our results provide an important large-scale assessment of climate-sensitive disturbance risk to property values to help inform land management and climate adaptation efforts.</span></p><div class=""><div style="caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family: Verdana; font-size: 14px; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: auto; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: auto; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-size-adjust: auto; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; text-decoration: none;"><br class=""></div><div style="caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family: Verdana; font-size: 14px; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: auto; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: auto; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-size-adjust: auto; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; text-decoration: none;">==============</div><div style="caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family: Verdana; font-size: 14px; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: auto; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: auto; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-size-adjust: auto; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; text-decoration: none;"><br class=""></div><div style="caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family: Verdana; font-size: 14px; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: auto; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: auto; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-size-adjust: auto; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; text-decoration: none;">“I just want it to be clear that the mainstream environmental movement has been asking very little of people for decades,” said Bea Ruiz, also an organizer with the U.S. national [ Extinction Rebellion ] team. </div><div style="caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family: Verdana; font-size: 14px; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: auto; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: auto; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-size-adjust: auto; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; text-decoration: none;"><br class=""></div><div style="caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family: Verdana; font-size: 14px; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: auto; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: auto; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-size-adjust: auto; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; text-decoration: none;">“There’s no element of, ‘We are in an emergency. We all need to do more than what we’re doing.”<br class=""><br class="">Extinction Rebellion’s radical philosophy<br class="">July 22 2019<br class=""><a href="https://thinkprogress.org/the-radical-philosophy-of-extinction-rebellion-5857d3955b57/" class="">https://thinkprogress.org/the-radical-philosophy-of-extinction-rebellion-5857d3955b57/</a></div>
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