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color: rgb(183, 70, 22); overflow-wrap: break-word; text-decoration-skip-ink: auto; word-break: break-word; box-sizing: inherit; text-underline-offset: 0.08em;">Open access</a></li><li class="c-article-identifiers__item" style="box-sizing: inherit; list-style: none; margin-right: 0px; padding-right: 0px; border-right-width: medium; border-right-style: none; border-right-color: currentcolor; color: rgb(34, 34, 34);">Published: <time datetime="2025-09-23" style="box-sizing: inherit;">23 September 2025</time></li></ul><h1 class="c-article-title" data-test="article-title" data-article-title="" style="font-size: 1.875rem; margin: 0px 0px 16px; -webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; font-family: Harding, Palatino, serif; letter-spacing: min(max(-0.011716rem, 4vw), -0.039063rem); line-height: 1.2; box-sizing: inherit;">The first emergence of unprecedented global water scarcity in the Anthropocene</h1><ul class="c-article-author-list c-article-author-list--short js-no-scroll" data-test="authors-list" data-component-authors-activator="authors-list" style="box-sizing: inherit; display: inline; font-size: 1rem; list-style: none; margin: 0px 8px 0px 0px; padding: 0px; width: 100%;"><li class="c-article-author-list__item" style="box-sizing: inherit; display: inline; padding-right: 0px;"><a data-test="author-name" data-track="click" data-track-action="open author" data-track-label="link" data-track-index="1_2" data-track-context="researcher popup with no profile" href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-025-63784-6#auth-Vecchia_P_-Ravinandrasana-Aff1-Aff2" data-author-popup="auth-Vecchia_P_-Ravinandrasana-Aff1-Aff2" data-author-search="Ravinandrasana, Vecchia P." style="vertical-align: baseline; color: rgb(0, 102, 153); overflow-wrap: break-word; text-decoration-skip-ink: auto; word-break: break-word; box-sizing: inherit; text-underline-offset: 0.08em;">Vecchia P. Ravinandrasana</a> & </li><li class="c-article-author-list__item" style="box-sizing: inherit; display: inline; padding-right: 0px;"><a data-test="author-name" data-track="click" data-track-action="open author" data-track-label="link" data-track-index="2_2" data-track-context="researcher popup with no profile" href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-025-63784-6#auth-Christian_L__E_-Franzke-Aff1-Aff2" data-author-popup="auth-Christian_L__E_-Franzke-Aff1-Aff2" data-author-search="Franzke, Christian L. E." data-corresp-id="c1" style="vertical-align: baseline; color: rgb(0, 102, 153); overflow-wrap: break-word; text-decoration-skip-ink: auto; word-break: break-word; box-sizing: inherit; text-underline-offset: 0.08em;">Christian L. E. Franzke<svg width="16" height="16" focusable="false" role="img" aria-hidden="true" class="u-icon"><use xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xlink:href="#icon-eds-i-mail-medium"></use></svg></a> </li></ul><p class="c-article-info-details" data-container-section="info" style="overflow-wrap: break-word; word-break: break-word; box-sizing: inherit; font-size: 1rem; margin-bottom: 8px; margin-top: 16px;"><a data-test="journal-link" href="https://www.nature.com/ncomms" data-track="click" data-track-action="journal homepage" data-track-category="article body" data-track-label="link" style="vertical-align: baseline; color: rgb(0, 102, 153); overflow-wrap: break-word; text-decoration-skip-ink: auto; word-break: break-word; box-sizing: inherit; text-underline-offset: 0.08em;"><i data-test="journal-title" style="box-sizing: inherit;">Nature Communications</i></a> <span data-test="journal-volume" style="box-sizing: inherit;"><span class="u-visually-hidden" style="box-sizing: inherit; border: 0px; clip: rect(0px, 0px, 0px, 0px); height: 1px; margin: -1905px; overflow: hidden; padding: 0px; width: 1px; position: absolute !important;">volume</span> 16</span>, Article number: <span data-test="article-number" style="box-sizing: inherit;">8281</span> (<span data-test="article-publication-year" style="box-sizing: inherit;">2025</span>) <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-025-63784-6#citeas" class="c-article-info-details__cite-as u-hide-print" data-track="click" data-track-action="cite this article" data-track-label="link" style="vertical-align: baseline; color: rgb(0, 102, 153); overflow-wrap: break-word; text-decoration-skip-ink: auto; word-break: break-word; box-sizing: inherit; text-underline-offset: 0.08em; border-left-width: 1px; border-left-style: solid; border-left-color: rgb(111, 111, 111); margin-left: 8px; padding-left: 8px;">Cite this article</a></p><div class="c-article-metrics-bar__wrapper u-clear-both" style="box-sizing: inherit; margin: 16px 0px;"><ul class="c-article-metrics-bar u-list-reset" style="box-sizing: inherit; display: flex; flex-wrap: wrap; font-size: 1rem; line-height: 1.3; list-style: none; margin: 0px; padding: 0px;"><li class="c-article-metrics-bar__item" data-test="altmetric-score" style="box-sizing: inherit; align-items: baseline; border-right-width: 1px; border-right-style: solid; border-right-color: rgb(111, 111, 111); margin-right: 8px;"><p class="c-article-metrics-bar__count" style="overflow-wrap: break-word; word-break: break-word; box-sizing: inherit; font-weight: 700; margin: 0px;">405 <span class="c-article-metrics-bar__label" style="box-sizing: inherit; color: rgb(98, 98, 98); font-weight: 400; margin: 0px 10px 0px 5px;">Altmetric</span></p></li><li class="c-article-metrics-bar__item" style="box-sizing: inherit; align-items: baseline; border-right-width: 0px; border-right-style: none; border-right-color: currentcolor; margin-right: 8px;"><p class="c-article-metrics-bar__details" style="overflow-wrap: break-word; word-break: break-word; box-sizing: inherit; margin: 0px;"><a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-025-63784-6/metrics" data-track="click" data-track-action="view metrics" data-track-label="link" rel="nofollow" style="vertical-align: baseline; color: rgb(0, 102, 153); overflow-wrap: break-word; text-decoration-skip-ink: auto; word-break: break-word; box-sizing: inherit; text-underline-offset: 0.08em;">Metrics<span class="u-visually-hidden" style="box-sizing: inherit; border: 0px; clip: rect(0px, 0px, 0px, 0px); height: 1px; margin: -1905px; overflow: hidden; padding: 0px; width: 1px; position: absolute !important;">details</span></a></p></li></ul></div></header></div><div class="c-article-body" style="box-sizing: inherit;"><section aria-labelledby="Abs1" data-title="Abstract" lang="en" style="box-sizing: inherit;"><div class="c-article-section" id="Abs1-section" style="box-sizing: inherit; clear: both;"><h2 class="c-article-section__title js-section-title js-c-reading-companion-sections-item" id="Abs1" style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; letter-spacing: -0.011716rem; font-size: 1.5rem; line-height: 1.24; box-sizing: inherit; border-bottom-width: 2px; border-bottom-style: solid; border-bottom-color: rgb(213, 213, 213); margin: 0px; padding-bottom: 8px;">Abstract</h2><div class="c-article-section__content" id="Abs1-content" style="box-sizing: inherit; margin-bottom: 40px; padding-top: 8px;"><p style="overflow-wrap: break-word; word-break: break-word; box-sizing: inherit; margin-bottom: 24px; margin-top: 0px;">Access to water is crucial for all aspects of life. <span style="background-color: rgb(255, 251, 0);">Anthropogenic global warming is projected to disrupt the hydrological cycle, leading to water scarcity</span>. However, the timing and hotspot regions of unprecedented water scarcity are unknown. Here, we estimate the Time of First Emergence (ToFE) of drought-driven water scarcity events, referred to as \u201cDay Zero Drought\u201d (DZD), which arises from hydrological compound extremes, including prolonged rainfall deficits, reduced river flow, and increasing water consumption. Using a probabilistic framework and a large ensemble of climate simulations, we attribute the timing and likelihood of DZD events to human influence. Many regions, including major reservoirs, may face high risk of DZD by the 2020s and 2030s. <span style="background-color: rgb(255, 251, 0);">Despite model and scenario uncertainties, consistent DZD hotspots emerge across the Mediterranean, southern Africa, and parts of North America. Urban populations are particularly vulnerable at the 1.5\u2009°C warming level. The length of time between successive DZD events is shorter than the duration of DZD, <b>limiting recovery periods and exacerbating water scarcity risks. </b>Therefore, more proactive water strategies are urgently needed to avoid severe societal impacts of DZD.</span></p></div></div></section></div></article></main></div><div>
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font-size: 14px; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: auto; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: auto; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-size-adjust: auto; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; text-decoration: none; caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); color: rgb(0, 0, 0);"><br></div><div style="font-family: Verdana; font-size: 14px; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: auto; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: auto; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-size-adjust: auto; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; text-decoration: none; caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); color: rgb(0, 0, 0);"><br></div><div style="font-family: Verdana; font-size: 14px; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: auto; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: auto; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-size-adjust: auto; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; text-decoration: none; caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); color: rgb(0, 0, 0);"><br></div><div style="font-family: Verdana; font-size: 14px; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: auto; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: auto; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-size-adjust: auto; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; text-decoration: none; caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); color: rgb(0, 0, 0);"><br></div><div style="font-family: Verdana; font-size: 14px; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: auto; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: auto; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-size-adjust: auto; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; text-decoration: none; caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); color: rgb(0, 0, 0);"><br></div><div style="font-family: Verdana; font-size: 14px; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: auto; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: auto; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-size-adjust: auto; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; text-decoration: none; caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); color: rgb(0, 0, 0);"><br></div><div style="font-family: Verdana; font-size: 14px; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: auto; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: auto; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-size-adjust: auto; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; text-decoration: none; caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); color: rgb(0, 0, 0);">=\u2014\u2014\u2014\u2014\u2014\u2014\u2014\u2014\u2014\u2014\u2014\u2014\u2014\u2014\u2014\u2014\u2014\u2014\u2014\u2014------===-------------------------------------------------=<br><br>\u201cFull of recent references and statistics, Harvesting the Biosphere adds to the growing chorus of warnings about the current trajectory of human activity on a finite planet, of which climate change is only one dimension. <br><br>\u201cOne can quibble with some assumptions or tweak Smil\u2019s calculations, but the bottom line will not change, only the time it may take humanity to reach a crisis point.\u201d<br><br>Stephen Running. \u201cApproaching the Limits\u201d Science 15 March 2013.<br><br>Book review. Harvesting the Biosphere: What we have taken from Nature. by Vaclav Smil . MIT Press, Cambridge, MA, 2012. 315 pp. $29, £19.95. ISBN 9780262018562.<br><br>=\u2014\u2014\u2014\u2014\u2014\u2014\u2014\u2014\u2014\u2014\u2014\u2014-----------------------===\u2014----------------------------\u2014\u2014\u2014\u2014\u2014\u2014\u2014\u2014\u2014=<br><br>\u201cMan \u2026 is alone, abandoned on earth in the midst of his infinite responsibilities, without help, with no other aim than the one he sets himself, with no other destiny than the one he forges for himself on this earth.\u201d<br><br>Jean-Paul Sartre (1905-1980)<br><br></div>
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