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margin-bottom: 40px; margin-block-start: 0px;"><header style="box-sizing: inherit;"><ul class="c-article-identifiers" data-test="article-identifier" style="box-sizing: inherit; color: rgb(111, 111, 111); display: flex; flex-wrap: wrap; font-size: 1rem; line-height: 1.3; list-style: none; padding: 0px; margin: 0px;"><li class="c-article-identifiers__item" data-test="article-category" style="box-sizing: inherit; list-style: none; margin-right: 8px; padding-right: 8px; border-right-width: 2px; border-right-style: solid; border-right-color: rgb(206, 219, 224); color: rgb(34, 34, 34);">Article</li><li class="c-article-identifiers__item" style="box-sizing: inherit; list-style: none; margin-right: 8px; padding-right: 8px; border-right-width: 2px; border-right-style: solid; border-right-color: rgb(206, 219, 224); color: rgb(34, 34, 34);"><a href="https://www.springernature.com/gp/open-science/about/the-fundamentals-of-open-access-and-open-research" data-track="click" data-track-action="open access" data-track-label="link" class="u-color-open-access" data-test="open-access" style="vertical-align: baseline; color: rgb(183, 70, 22); overflow-wrap: break-word; text-decoration-skip-ink: auto; word-break: break-word; box-sizing: inherit; text-underline-offset: 0.08em;">Open access</a></li><li class="c-article-identifiers__item" style="box-sizing: inherit; list-style: none; margin-right: 0px; padding-right: 0px; border-right-width: medium; border-right-style: none; border-right-color: currentcolor; color: rgb(34, 34, 34);">Published: <time datetime="2026-01-17" style="box-sizing: inherit;">17 January 2026</time></li></ul><h1 class="c-article-title" data-test="article-title" data-article-title="" style="font-size: 1.875rem; margin: 0px 0px 16px; -webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; font-family: Harding, Palatino, serif; letter-spacing: min(max(-0.011716rem, 4vw), -0.039063rem); line-height: 1.2; box-sizing: inherit;">Exposure of western United States bird communities to predicted high severity fire</h1><ul class="c-article-author-list c-article-author-list--short js-no-scroll" data-test="authors-list" data-component-authors-activator="authors-list" style="box-sizing: inherit; display: inline; font-size: 1rem; list-style: none; margin: 0px 8px 0px 0px; padding: 0px; width: 100%;"><li class="c-article-author-list__item" style="box-sizing: inherit; display: inline; padding-right: 0px;"><a data-test="author-name" data-track="click" data-track-action="open author" data-track-label="link" data-track-index="1_5" data-track-context="researcher popup with no profile" href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-026-68480-7#auth-Kari_E_-Norman-Aff1-Aff2" data-author-popup="auth-Kari_E_-Norman-Aff1-Aff2" data-author-search="Norman, Kari E." data-corresp-id="c1" style="vertical-align: baseline; color: rgb(0, 102, 153); overflow-wrap: break-word; text-decoration-skip-ink: auto; word-break: break-word; box-sizing: inherit; text-underline-offset: 0.08em;">Kari E. Norman<svg width="16" height="16" focusable="false" role="img" aria-hidden="true" class="u-icon"><use xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xlink:href="#icon-eds-i-mail-medium"></use></svg></a>, </li><li class="c-article-author-list__item" style="box-sizing: inherit; display: inline; padding-right: 0px;"><a data-test="author-name" data-track="click" data-track-action="open author" data-track-label="link" data-track-index="2_5" data-track-context="researcher popup with no profile" href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-026-68480-7#auth-Andrew_N_-Stillman-Aff3" data-author-popup="auth-Andrew_N_-Stillman-Aff3" data-author-search="Stillman, Andrew N." style="vertical-align: baseline; color: rgb(0, 102, 153); overflow-wrap: break-word; text-decoration-skip-ink: auto; word-break: break-word; box-sizing: inherit; text-underline-offset: 0.08em;">Andrew N. Stillman</a>, </li><li class="c-article-author-list__item c-article-author-list__item--hide-small-screen" style="box-sizing: inherit; display: inline; padding-right: 0px;"><a data-test="author-name" data-track="click" data-track-action="open author" data-track-label="link" data-track-index="3_5" data-track-context="researcher popup with no profile" href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-026-68480-7#auth-Sean_A_-Parks-Aff4-Aff5" data-author-popup="auth-Sean_A_-Parks-Aff4-Aff5" data-author-search="Parks, Sean A." style="vertical-align: baseline; color: rgb(0, 102, 153); overflow-wrap: break-word; text-decoration-skip-ink: auto; word-break: break-word; box-sizing: inherit; text-underline-offset: 0.08em;">Sean A. Parks</a>, </li><li class="c-article-author-list__item c-article-author-list__item--hide-small-screen" style="box-sizing: inherit; display: inline; padding-right: 0px;"><a data-test="author-name" data-track="click" data-track-action="open author" data-track-label="link" data-track-index="4_5" data-track-context="researcher popup with no profile" href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-026-68480-7#auth-Courtney_L_-Davis-Aff3" data-author-popup="auth-Courtney_L_-Davis-Aff3" data-author-search="Davis, Courtney L." style="vertical-align: baseline; color: rgb(0, 102, 153); overflow-wrap: break-word; text-decoration-skip-ink: auto; word-break: break-word; box-sizing: inherit; text-underline-offset: 0.08em;">Courtney L. Davis</a> & </li><li class="c-article-author-list__item" style="box-sizing: inherit; display: inline; padding-right: 0px;"><a data-test="author-name" data-track="click" data-track-action="open author" data-track-label="link" data-track-index="5_5" data-track-context="researcher popup with no profile" href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-026-68480-7#auth-Gavin_M_-Jones-Aff1-Aff2" data-author-popup="auth-Gavin_M_-Jones-Aff1-Aff2" data-author-search="Jones, Gavin M." style="vertical-align: baseline; color: rgb(0, 102, 153); overflow-wrap: break-word; text-decoration-skip-ink: auto; word-break: break-word; box-sizing: inherit; text-underline-offset: 0.08em;">Gavin M. Jones</a> </li></ul><p class="c-article-info-details" data-container-section="info" style="overflow-wrap: break-word; word-break: break-word; box-sizing: inherit; font-size: 1rem; margin-bottom: 8px; margin-top: 16px;"><a data-test="journal-link" href="https://www.nature.com/ncomms" data-track="click" data-track-action="journal homepage" data-track-category="article body" data-track-label="link" style="vertical-align: baseline; color: rgb(0, 102, 153); overflow-wrap: break-word; text-decoration-skip-ink: auto; word-break: break-word; box-sizing: inherit; text-underline-offset: 0.08em;"><i data-test="journal-title" style="box-sizing: inherit;">Nature Communications</i></a> , Article number: <span data-test="article-number" style="box-sizing: inherit;"></span> (<span data-test="article-publication-year" style="box-sizing: inherit;">2026</span>) <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-026-68480-7#citeas" class="c-article-info-details__cite-as u-hide-print" data-track="click" data-track-action="cite this article" data-track-label="link" style="vertical-align: baseline; color: rgb(0, 102, 153); overflow-wrap: break-word; text-decoration-skip-ink: auto; word-break: break-word; box-sizing: inherit; text-underline-offset: 0.08em; border-left-width: 1px; border-left-style: solid; border-left-color: rgb(111, 111, 111); margin-left: 8px; padding-left: 8px;">Cite this article</a></p><div class="c-article-metrics-bar__wrapper u-clear-both" style="box-sizing: inherit; margin: 16px 0px;"><ul class="c-article-metrics-bar u-list-reset" style="box-sizing: inherit; display: flex; flex-wrap: wrap; font-size: 1rem; line-height: 1.3; list-style: none; margin: 0px; padding: 0px;"><li class="c-article-metrics-bar__item" data-test="access-count" style="box-sizing: inherit; align-items: baseline; border-right-width: 1px; border-right-style: solid; border-right-color: rgb(111, 111, 111); margin-right: 8px;"><p class="c-article-metrics-bar__count" style="overflow-wrap: break-word; word-break: break-word; box-sizing: inherit; font-weight: 700; margin: 0px;">3282 <span class="c-article-metrics-bar__label" style="box-sizing: inherit; color: rgb(98, 98, 98); font-weight: 400; margin: 0px 10px 0px 5px;">Accesses</span></p></li><li class="c-article-metrics-bar__item" data-test="altmetric-score" style="box-sizing: inherit; align-items: baseline; border-right-width: 1px; border-right-style: solid; border-right-color: rgb(111, 111, 111); margin-right: 8px;"><p class="c-article-metrics-bar__count" style="overflow-wrap: break-word; word-break: break-word; box-sizing: inherit; font-weight: 700; margin: 0px;">1 <span class="c-article-metrics-bar__label" style="box-sizing: inherit; color: rgb(98, 98, 98); font-weight: 400; margin: 0px 10px 0px 5px;">Altmetric</span></p></li><li class="c-article-metrics-bar__item" style="box-sizing: inherit; align-items: baseline; border-right-width: 0px; border-right-style: none; border-right-color: currentcolor; margin-right: 8px;"><p class="c-article-metrics-bar__details" style="overflow-wrap: break-word; word-break: break-word; box-sizing: inherit; margin: 0px;"><a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-026-68480-7/metrics" data-track="click" data-track-action="view metrics" data-track-label="link" rel="nofollow" style="vertical-align: baseline; color: rgb(0, 102, 153); overflow-wrap: break-word; text-decoration-skip-ink: auto; word-break: break-word; box-sizing: inherit; text-underline-offset: 0.08em;">Metrics<span class="u-visually-hidden" style="box-sizing: inherit; border: 0px; clip: rect(0px, 0px, 0px, 0px); height: 1px; margin: -1898px; overflow: hidden; padding: 0px; width: 1px; position: absolute !important;">details</span></a></p></li></ul></div><p class="c-status-message c-status-message--warning c-status-message--boxed" style="overflow-wrap: break-word; word-break: break-word; box-sizing: border-box; align-items: center; display: flex; font-size: 1rem; position: relative; width: 751.281px; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); border-width: 1px 1px 4px; border-style: solid; border-color: rgb(238, 238, 238) rgb(238, 238, 238) rgb(237, 188, 83); border-image: initial; border-radius: 2px; line-height: 1.4; padding: 16px;"><svg class="c-status-message__icon" width="24" height="24" aria-hidden="true" focusable="false"><use xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xlink:href="#icon-eds-i-warning-filled-medium"></use></svg>We are providing an unedited version of this manuscript to give early access to its findings. Before final publication, the manuscript will undergo further editing. Please note there may be errors present which affect the content, and all legal disclaimers apply.</p></header></div><div class="c-article-body" style="box-sizing: inherit;"><section aria-labelledby="Abs1" data-title="Abstract" lang="en" style="box-sizing: inherit;"><div class="c-article-section" id="Abs1-section" style="box-sizing: inherit; clear: both;"><h2 class="c-article-section__title js-section-title js-c-reading-companion-sections-item" id="Abs1" style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; letter-spacing: -0.011716rem; font-size: 1.5rem; line-height: 1.24; box-sizing: inherit; border-bottom-width: 2px; border-bottom-style: solid; border-bottom-color: rgb(213, 213, 213); margin: 0px; padding-bottom: 8px;">Abstract</h2><div class="c-article-section__content" id="Abs1-content" style="box-sizing: inherit; margin-bottom: 40px; padding-top: 8px;"><p style="overflow-wrap: break-word; word-break: break-word; box-sizing: inherit; margin-bottom: 24px; margin-top: 0px;">Fire is a pervasive biogeographic process that shapes biodiversity globally and is now experiencing unprecedented changes. Despite well documented impacts of fires on biodiversity, we do not know where biodiversity might be most vulnerable to changing fire regimes. We leverage recent advancements in fire forecasting and species distribution modeling to assess the exposure of bird species richness, community uniqueness, and functional richness to altered fire regimes in the western United States. We find that 55-58% of biodiversity hotspots are classified as \u201crefugia\u201d, where high biodiversity intersects with predicted low severity burn areas. In contrast, 24-30% of biodiversity hotspots are classified as \u201careas of concern\u201d, where high biodiversity intersected with predicted high severity burn areas. Over half (52-60%) of \u201careas of concern\u201d occur in geographies with historically low-severity fire regimes; a fire regime mismatch indicating a potential threat to biodiversity. We find that species with a preference for high-density vegetation and with shallower beak depth are most likely to be exposed to high severity fire, indicating a potential for habitat losses for species with these traits. Our findings reinforce calls for targeted management to reduce impacts of future fire where it is predicted to be outside the historical range of variation.</p></div></div></section></div></article></main></div><div>
<meta charset="UTF-8"><div dir="auto" style="caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); color: rgb(0, 0, 0); letter-spacing: normal; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; text-decoration: none; word-wrap: break-word; -webkit-nbsp-mode: space; line-break: after-white-space;"><div dir="auto" style="caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); color: rgb(0, 0, 0); letter-spacing: normal; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; text-decoration: none; word-wrap: break-word; -webkit-nbsp-mode: space; line-break: after-white-space;"><div style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0); letter-spacing: normal; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-wrap: break-word; -webkit-nbsp-mode: space; line-break: after-white-space;"><div style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0); letter-spacing: normal; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-wrap: break-word; -webkit-nbsp-mode: space; line-break: after-white-space;"><div style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0); letter-spacing: normal; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-wrap: break-word; -webkit-nbsp-mode: space; line-break: after-white-space;"><div style="word-wrap: break-word; -webkit-nbsp-mode: space; line-break: after-white-space;"><div style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family: Verdana; font-size: 14px; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;"> </div><div style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family: Verdana; font-size: 14px; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;">=-----------------</div><div style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family: Verdana; font-size: 14px; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;"><br>\u201cOne can quibble with with some assumptions or tweak Smil's calculations, but the bottom line will not change, <br>only the time it may take humanity to reach a crisis point.\u201d<br><br>Stephen Running. \u201cApproaching the Limits\u201d Science 15 March 2013.<br><br>Book review. Harvesting the Biosphere: What we have taken from Nature. by Vaclav Smil . <br>MIT Press, Cambridge, MA, 2012. 315 pp. $29, £19.95. ISBN 9780262018562.</div></div></div></div></div></div></div>
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