<html><head><meta http-equiv="content-type" content="text/html; charset=utf-8"></head><body style="overflow-wrap: break-word; -webkit-nbsp-mode: space; line-break: after-white-space;"><div class="article-citation" style="box-sizing: border-box; margin-bottom: 1.125rem; color: rgb(28, 29, 30); font-variant-ligatures: normal; orphans: 2; widows: 2; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial;"><div class="citation" style="box-sizing: border-box;"><div class="pb-dropzone" data-pb-dropzone="publicaitonContent-series-title" style="box-sizing: border-box;"><a href="https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/journal/23284277" title="Earth's Future homepage" class="citation--logo" style="box-sizing: border-box; cursor: pointer; color: rgb(18, 61, 128); text-decoration: none; display: inline-block; margin: 0.3125rem 0px; max-width: 100%;"></a></div><div class="doi-access-container clearfix" style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0.625rem 0px; display: flex; align-items: center;"><span class="primary-heading" style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span class="primary-heading" style="box-sizing: border-box;">Research Article</span></span><div class="doi-access-wrapper" style="box-sizing: border-box; font-weight: 700; display: inline-block; align-items: center; margin-left: 0.5rem; padding-left: 0.5rem; border-left-width: 1px; border-left-style: solid; border-left-color: rgb(216, 217, 218);"><div class="open-access access-type" style="box-sizing: border-box; color: rgb(185, 45, 128); display: flex; align-items: center; line-height: normal; width: 7rem;"><span aria-hidden="true" class="icon-icon-lock_open" style="box-sizing: border-box; font-weight: 400; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-position: normal; line-height: 1; -webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; transition: transform 0.5s; margin-right: 0.3125rem;"></span><div class="doi-access" style="box-sizing: border-box; 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font-weight: 400; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-position: normal; line-height: 1; -webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; padding-right: 0.5rem;"></span><span aria-hidden="true" class="access-icon icon-nc" style="box-sizing: border-box; font-weight: 400; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-position: normal; line-height: 1; -webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased;"></span></a></div></div><h1 class="citation__title" lang="en" style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0.5rem 0px; line-height: 1.875rem;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">Transition in Global Basins From Precipitation-Dominated to Evaporative Demand-Dominated Meteorological Drought: Past Patterns and Future Projections</span></h1><div class="pb-dropzone" data-pb-dropzone="publicaitonContent-versions" style="box-sizing: border-box;"></div><div class="loa-wrapper loa-authors hidden-xs desktop-authors" style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0.9375rem 0px;"><div id="sb-1" class="accordion" style="box-sizing: border-box;"><div class="comma__list" style="box-sizing: border-box;"><div class="accordion-tabbed" style="box-sizing: border-box; color: rgb(0, 0, 0);"><span class="accordion-tabbed__tab-mobile accordion__closed" style="box-sizing: border-box; border-top-width: medium; border-top-style: none; border-top-color: currentcolor; display: inline-block; position: relative;"><a href="https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/authored-by/Ji/Jiachen" class="author-name accordion-tabbed__control" data-id="a1" data-db-target-for="a1" aria-controls="a1" aria-haspopup="true" id="a1_Ctrl" role="button" style="box-sizing: border-box; background-image: none; background-position: 0% 0%; background-size: auto; background-repeat: repeat; background-attachment: scroll; background-origin: padding-box; background-clip: border-box; cursor: pointer; color: rgb(18, 61, 128); width: 100%; padding: 0px; display: inline; margin-bottom: 0.25rem; line-height: 1.25rem;"><span style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; padding: 0px;">Jiachen Ji</span></a><span class="comma-separator" style="box-sizing: border-box; display: inline-block; position: static; color: rgb(139, 139, 139); box-shadow: none;">, </span></span><span class="accordion-tabbed__tab-mobile accordion__closed" style="box-sizing: border-box; border-top-width: medium; border-top-style: none; border-top-color: currentcolor; display: inline-block; position: relative;"><a href="https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/authored-by/Miao/Chiyuan" class="author-name accordion-tabbed__control" data-id="a2" data-db-target-for="a2" aria-controls="a2" aria-haspopup="true" id="a2_Ctrl" role="button" style="box-sizing: border-box; background-image: none; background-position: 0% 0%; background-size: auto; background-repeat: repeat; background-attachment: scroll; background-origin: padding-box; background-clip: border-box; cursor: pointer; color: rgb(18, 61, 128); width: 100%; padding: 0px; display: inline; margin-bottom: 0.25rem; line-height: 1.25rem;"><span style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; padding: 0px;">Chiyuan Miao<span aria-hidden="true" class="icon-mail_outline" style="box-sizing: border-box; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-position: normal; line-height: 1; -webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; display: inline-block; transition: transform 0.5s; margin: 0px 0px 0px 0.1875rem; float: none; vertical-align: middle;"></span></span></a><span class="comma-separator" style="box-sizing: border-box; display: inline-block; position: static; color: rgb(139, 139, 139); box-shadow: none;">, </span></span><span class="accordion-tabbed__tab-mobile accordion__closed" style="box-sizing: border-box; border-top-width: medium; border-top-style: none; border-top-color: currentcolor; display: inline-block; position: relative;"><a href="https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/authored-by/Hu/Jinlong" class="author-name accordion-tabbed__control" data-id="a3" data-db-target-for="a3" aria-controls="a3" aria-haspopup="true" id="a3_Ctrl" role="button" style="box-sizing: border-box; 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background-image: none; background-position: 0% 0%; background-size: auto; background-repeat: repeat; background-attachment: scroll; background-origin: padding-box; background-clip: border-box; cursor: pointer; color: rgb(18, 61, 128); width: 100%; padding: 0px; display: inline; margin-bottom: 0.25rem; line-height: 1.25rem;"><span style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; padding: 0px;">Xiaoyong Bai</span></a><span class="comma-separator" style="box-sizing: border-box; display: inline-block; position: static; color: rgb(139, 139, 139); box-shadow: none;">, </span></span><span class="accordion-tabbed__tab-mobile accordion__closed" style="box-sizing: border-box; border-top-width: medium; border-top-style: none; border-top-color: currentcolor; display: inline-block; position: relative;"><a href="https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/authored-by/Wang/Yiying" class="author-name accordion-tabbed__control" data-id="a9" data-db-target-for="a9" aria-controls="a9" aria-haspopup="true" id="a9_Ctrl" role="button" style="box-sizing: border-box; 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display: inline-block; scroll-margin-top: 4.0625rem; font-size: 14px;">Abstract</h2><div class="article-section__content en main" style="box-sizing: border-box; scroll-margin-top: 4.0625rem; line-height: 1.5; margin: 0px; position: relative;"><p style="box-sizing: border-box; margin-top: 0.3125rem; margin-bottom: 16px; color: rgb(0, 0, 0);"><span style="background-color: rgb(255, 251, 0);">Meteorological drought, one of the most destructive natural hazards, is driven by both precipitation deficits and high evaporative demand. While precipitation has traditionally been considered the dominant driver, recent studies suggest an increasing influence of evaporative demand</span><span style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">. However, it remains uncertain whether these findings represent individual regional cases or a boarder emerging global trend. To address this, we developed a systematic framework using a standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI) variant experiment to attribute drought drivers across 292 major global basins. Our historical analysis (1970\u20132024) reveals a widespread global transition: 48.1% of the global basin area (6.43 × 10</span><span style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); box-sizing: border-box; line-height: 0; position: relative; vertical-align: baseline; top: -0.5em;">7</span><span style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);"> km</span><span style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); box-sizing: border-box; line-height: 0; position: relative; vertical-align: baseline; top: -0.5em;">2</span><span style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">) transitioned from precipitation-dominated to evaporative demand-dominated drought. This transition, accelerating after 2000, originated in arid continental interiors and expanded outwards, leaving precipitation-dominated areas only one-tenth the size of evaporative demand-dominated ones. Future projections from bias-corrected coupled model intercomparison project phase 6 models </span><span style="background-color: rgb(255, 251, 0);">indicate this transition is largely irreversible, as over 80% of historically transitioned basins are projected to maintain evaporative demand-dominated through 2100. </span><span style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">Basins that have not yet transitioned are also projected to transition toward either evaporative demand-dominated or precipitation and evaporative demand co-dominated drought states. Under the shared socioeconomic pathway (SSP) 5-8.5 scenario, the global area of evaporative demand-dominated droughts is projected to be 17.6% larger by 2100 than under SSP1-2.6 scenario. These findings highlight the urgent need for both climate mitigation to slow these transitions and proactive adaptation to address the new reality of drought driven by evaporative demand.</span></p></div></section><section class="article-section__abstract article-section__PLS" lang="en" data-lang="en" lang-name="English" id="section-2-en" style="box-sizing: border-box; border-left-width: 0px; border-left-style: none; border-left-color: currentcolor; padding: 1.5rem; margin-top: 1.25rem; margin-bottom: 0.625rem; margin-left: 1.25rem;"><h2 id="d686680" class="article-section__header section__title executiveSummary abstractlang_en" style="background-color: rgb(239, 239, 240); box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px 0px 0.9375rem; line-height: 1.2; color: rgb(49, 49, 49); display: inline-block; scroll-margin-top: 4.0625rem; font-size: 14px;">Plain Language Summary</h2><div class="article-section__content en executiveSummary" style="box-sizing: border-box; scroll-margin-top: 4.0625rem; line-height: 1.5; margin: 0px; position: relative;"><p style="box-sizing: border-box; margin-top: 0.3125rem; margin-bottom: 16px; color: rgb(0, 0, 0);"><span style="background-color: rgb(255, 251, 0);">Meteorological drought arises from two main sources: a deficit in precipitation, or high evaporative demand from a warming atmosphere that pulls moisture from the land. <b>For decades, scientific understanding and water management have focused on precipitation as the dominant drought driver. In a warming world, is this understanding still correct? </b></span><span style="background-color: rgb(239, 239, 240);">Our research set out to answer this question on a global scale. We analyzed over 50 years of climate data (1970\u20132024) across 292 of the world's major basins. Using a systematic drought attribution framework, our analysis revealed a profound global transition. We found that nearly half (48.1%) of the global basin area has already shifted from a state of precipitation-dominated drought to one dominated by evaporative demand. Future climate projections indicate this transition is largely irreversible. Most basins that have already shifted are projected to remain in this new state through 2100. While those that have not yet transitioned are also projected to shift, establishing evaporative demand as a dominate drought factor nearly everywhere by the end of the century. These findings underscore the urgent need to both mitigate climate change to slow these transitions and proactively </span><b style="background-color: rgb(255, 251, 0);">adapt to the new reality of evaporative demand</b><span style="background-color: rgb(239, 239, 240);"> -driven drought.</span></p></div></section><section class="article-section article-section__abstract" lang="en" data-lang="en" lang-name="English" id="section-3-en" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); box-sizing: border-box; border-left-width: 0px; border-left-style: none; border-left-color: currentcolor; padding: 0px 0px 0.03125rem 20px; margin-top: 1.25rem; margin-bottom: 0.625rem;"><h2 id="d686685" class="article-section__header section__title short abstractlang_en" style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px 0px 0.9375rem; line-height: 1.2; color: rgb(49, 49, 49); display: inline-block; scroll-margin-top: 4.0625rem; font-size: 14px;">Key Points</h2><div class="article-section__content en short" style="box-sizing: border-box; scroll-margin-top: 4.0625rem; line-height: 1.5; margin: 0px; position: relative;"><p style="box-sizing: border-box; margin-top: 0.3125rem; margin-bottom: 16px; color: rgb(0, 0, 0);"></p><ul class="unordered-list" style="box-sizing: border-box; list-style: none; padding: 0px; margin: 0px 0px 0px 0.625rem;"><li style="box-sizing: border-box; position: relative; padding-left: 1.25rem; line-height: 1.4em;"><p style="box-sizing: border-box; margin-top: 0.3125rem; margin-bottom: 16px; color: rgb(0, 0, 0);">Standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index variant experiment identified dominant drought drivers and their transition periods</p></li><li style="box-sizing: border-box; position: relative; padding-left: 1.25rem; line-height: 1.4em; margin-top: 0.625rem;"><p style="box-sizing: border-box; margin-top: 0.3125rem; margin-bottom: 16px; color: rgb(0, 0, 0);">Nearly half of global basins shifted from precipitation-to evaporative demand-dominated drought</p></li><li style="box-sizing: border-box; position: relative; padding-left: 1.25rem; line-height: 1.4em; margin-top: 0.625rem;"><p style="box-sizing: border-box; margin-top: 0.3125rem; margin-bottom: 16px; color: rgb(0, 0, 0);">This shift is largely irreversible, with remaining basins projected to follow in the future</p></li></ul></div></section></div></article></div><div><div dir="auto" style="overflow-wrap: break-word; -webkit-nbsp-mode: space; line-break: after-white-space;"><div dir="auto" style="overflow-wrap: break-word; -webkit-nbsp-mode: space; line-break: after-white-space;"><div>##########</div><div><br></div><div> \u201cThe whole idea that everything\u2019s going to work out isn\u2019t really helpful because it isn\u2019t going to work out \u201d said Kate Marvel a climate scientist at the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies. Climate change is going to worsen to a point where millions of lives, homes, and species are put at risk she said. </div><div><br><a href="https://newrepublic.com/article/151608/case-against-climate-pessimism">https://newrepublic.com/article/151608/case-against-climate-pessimism</a><br><br>==\u2014\u2014\u2014\u2014<br><br>"Environmental psychologist Susi Moser (2012) calls it \u2018the bravest thing\u2019 \u2013 getting real, accepting reality without illusions, and accepting that better tomorrows may not come.\u201d<br><br><a href="https://www.isthishowyoufeel.com/blog/how-do-people-cope-with-feelings-about-climate-change-so-that-they-stay-engaged-and-take-action">https://www.isthishowyoufeel.com/blog/how-do-people-cope-with-feelings-about-climate-change-so-that-they-stay-engaged-and-take-action</a></div></div></div></div><br class="Apple-interchange-newline"><div>
<meta charset="UTF-8"><div style="caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family: Verdana; font-size: 14px; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: auto; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: auto; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; text-decoration: none;"><br class="Apple-interchange-newline"><br></div><div style="caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family: Verdana; font-size: 14px; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: auto; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: auto; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; text-decoration: none;">\u2014\u2014\u2014\u2014\u2014</div><div style="caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family: Verdana; font-size: 14px; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: auto; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: auto; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; text-decoration: none;"><br></div><div style="caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family: Verdana; font-size: 14px; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: auto; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: auto; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; text-decoration: none;">"The increasing role of warming on large-scale snowpack variability and trends foreshadows fundamental impacts on streamflow and water supplies across the western USA."<br><br>Gregory T. Pederson, Stephen T. Gray, Connie A. Woodhouse, Julio L. Betancourt, Daniel B. Fagre, Jeremy S. Littell, Emma Watson, Brian H. Luckman, Lisa J. Graumlich. \u201cThe Unusual Nature of Recent Snowpack Declines in the North American Cordillera.\u201d Science, Science Express, June 9, 2011</div>
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