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list-style: none; margin-right: 0px; padding-right: 0px; border-right-width: medium; border-right-style: none; border-right-color: currentcolor; color: rgb(34, 34, 34);">Published: <time datetime="2026-02-12" style="box-sizing: inherit;">12 February 2026</time></li></ul><h1 class="c-article-title" data-test="article-title" data-article-title="" style="font-size: 1.875rem; margin: 0px 0px 16px; -webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; font-family: Harding, Palatino, serif; letter-spacing: min(max(-0.011716rem, 4vw), -0.039063rem); line-height: 1.2; box-sizing: inherit;">Wildfires on a changing planet</h1><ul class="c-article-author-list c-article-author-list--short js-no-scroll" data-test="authors-list" data-component-authors-activator="authors-list" style="box-sizing: inherit; display: inline; font-size: 1rem; list-style: none; margin: 0px 8px 0px 0px; padding: 0px; width: 100%;"><li class="c-article-author-list__item" style="box-sizing: inherit; display: inline; padding-right: 0px;"><a data-test="author-name" data-track="click" data-track-action="open author" data-track-label="link" data-track-index="1_3" data-track-context="researcher popup with no profile" href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-025-68176-4#auth-Olivia-Haas-Aff1-Aff2" data-author-popup="auth-Olivia-Haas-Aff1-Aff2" data-author-search="Haas, Olivia" data-corresp-id="c1" style="vertical-align: baseline; color: rgb(0, 102, 153); overflow-wrap: break-word; text-decoration-skip-ink: auto; word-break: break-word; box-sizing: inherit; text-underline-offset: 0.08em;">Olivia Haas<svg width="16" height="16" focusable="false" role="img" aria-hidden="true" class="u-icon"><use xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xlink:href="#icon-eds-i-mail-medium"></use></svg></a>, </li><li class="c-article-author-list__item" style="box-sizing: inherit; display: inline; padding-right: 0px;"><a data-test="author-name" data-track="click" data-track-action="open author" data-track-label="link" data-track-index="2_3" data-track-context="researcher popup with no profile" href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-025-68176-4#auth-Iain_Colin-Prentice-Aff1-Aff2" data-author-popup="auth-Iain_Colin-Prentice-Aff1-Aff2" data-author-search="Prentice, Iain Colin" style="vertical-align: baseline; color: rgb(0, 102, 153); overflow-wrap: break-word; text-decoration-skip-ink: auto; word-break: break-word; box-sizing: inherit; text-underline-offset: 0.08em;">Iain Colin Prentice</a> & </li><li class="c-article-author-list__item" style="box-sizing: inherit; display: inline; padding-right: 0px;"><a data-test="author-name" data-track="click" data-track-action="open author" data-track-label="link" data-track-index="3_3" data-track-context="researcher popup with no profile" href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-025-68176-4#auth-Sandy_P_-Harrison-Aff1-Aff3" data-author-popup="auth-Sandy_P_-Harrison-Aff1-Aff3" data-author-search="Harrison, Sandy P." style="vertical-align: baseline; color: rgb(0, 102, 153); overflow-wrap: break-word; text-decoration-skip-ink: auto; word-break: break-word; box-sizing: inherit; text-underline-offset: 0.08em;">Sandy P. Harrison</a> </li></ul><p class="c-article-info-details" data-container-section="info" style="overflow-wrap: break-word; word-break: break-word; box-sizing: inherit; font-size: 1rem; margin-bottom: 8px; margin-top: 16px;"><a data-test="journal-link" href="https://www.nature.com/ncomms" data-track="click" data-track-action="journal homepage" data-track-category="article body" data-track-label="link" style="vertical-align: baseline; color: rgb(0, 102, 153); overflow-wrap: break-word; text-decoration-skip-ink: auto; word-break: break-word; box-sizing: inherit; text-underline-offset: 0.08em;"><i data-test="journal-title" style="box-sizing: inherit;">Nature Communications</i></a> , Article number: <span data-test="article-number" style="box-sizing: inherit;"></span> (<span data-test="article-publication-year" style="box-sizing: inherit;">2026</span>) <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-025-68176-4#citeas" class="c-article-info-details__cite-as u-hide-print" data-track="click" data-track-action="cite this article" data-track-label="link" style="vertical-align: baseline; color: rgb(0, 102, 153); overflow-wrap: break-word; text-decoration-skip-ink: auto; word-break: break-word; box-sizing: inherit; text-underline-offset: 0.08em; border-left-width: 1px; border-left-style: solid; border-left-color: rgb(111, 111, 111); margin-left: 8px; padding-left: 8px;">Cite this article</a></p><p class="c-status-message c-status-message--warning c-status-message--boxed" style="overflow-wrap: break-word; word-break: break-word; box-sizing: border-box; align-items: center; display: flex; font-size: 1rem; position: relative; width: 751.281px; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); border-width: 1px 1px 4px; border-style: solid; border-color: rgb(238, 238, 238) rgb(238, 238, 238) rgb(237, 188, 83); border-image: initial; border-radius: 2px; line-height: 1.4; padding: 16px;"><svg class="c-status-message__icon" width="24" height="24" aria-hidden="true" focusable="false"><use xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xlink:href="#icon-eds-i-warning-filled-medium"></use></svg>We are providing an unedited version of this manuscript to give early access to its findings. Before final publication, the manuscript will undergo further editing. Please note there may be errors present which affect the content, and all legal disclaimers apply.</p></header></div><div class="c-article-body" style="box-sizing: inherit;"><section aria-labelledby="Abs1" data-title="Abstract" lang="en" style="box-sizing: inherit; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-size: 18px; font-variant-ligatures: normal; orphans: 2; widows: 2; text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial;"><div class="c-article-section" id="Abs1-section" style="box-sizing: inherit; clear: both;"><h2 class="c-article-section__title js-section-title js-c-reading-companion-sections-item" id="Abs1" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); -webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; letter-spacing: -0.011716rem; font-size: 1.5rem; line-height: 1.24; box-sizing: inherit; border-bottom-width: 2px; border-bottom-style: solid; border-bottom-color: rgb(213, 213, 213); margin: 0px; padding-bottom: 8px;">Abstract</h2><div class="c-article-section__content" id="Abs1-content" style="box-sizing: inherit; margin-bottom: 40px; padding-top: 8px;"><p style="overflow-wrap: break-word; word-break: break-word; box-sizing: inherit; margin-bottom: 24px; margin-top: 0px;"><span style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">The distribution of wildfires on Earth will change as climate, land-use, and vegetation change. We use global empirical models of burnt area, fire size and fire intensity to explore future wildfire trajectories under ~1.5 and 3-4\u2009°C warming with middle of the road future socio-economic conditions. Even under ~1.5\u2009°C warming we find a change in wildfire patterns by the end of the 21</span><span style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); vertical-align: baseline; font-size: 13.5px; line-height: 0; position: relative; top: -0.5em; box-sizing: inherit;">st</span><span style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);"> century with reduced burning in tropical regions driven by changes in human activity but larger and more intense wildfires in extra-tropical regions driven by changes in climate and CO</span><span style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); box-sizing: inherit; vertical-align: baseline; font-size: 13.5px; line-height: 0; position: relative; bottom: -0.25em;">2</span><span style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">. </span><span style="background-color: rgb(255, 251, 0);">With low climate change mitigation, burnt areas increase greatly across all vegetation types, overwhelming the current global decline. These findings suggest that even with ambitious climate change mitigation, current fire-suppression policies will fail in much of the world and mitigation scenarios that rely on expanding forest areas will be unrealistic unless they are designed with wildfire risks in mind.</span></p></div></div></section><div class="main-content" style="box-sizing: inherit; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-size: 18px; font-variant-ligatures: normal; orphans: 2; widows: 2; text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial;"></div><div class="u-mt-32" style="box-sizing: inherit; margin-top: 32px; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-size: 18px; font-variant-ligatures: normal; orphans: 2; widows: 2; text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial;"><section data-title="Data availability" style="box-sizing: inherit;"><div class="c-article-section" id="data-availability-section" style="box-sizing: inherit; clear: both;"><br class="Apple-interchange-newline"></div></section></div></div></article></main></div><div>
<meta charset="UTF-8"><div dir="auto" style="text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word; -webkit-nbsp-mode: space; line-break: after-white-space;"><div dir="auto" style="text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word; -webkit-nbsp-mode: space; line-break: after-white-space;"><div dir="auto" style="text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word; -webkit-nbsp-mode: space; line-break: after-white-space;"><div dir="auto" style="text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word; -webkit-nbsp-mode: space; line-break: after-white-space;"><div dir="auto" style="text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word; -webkit-nbsp-mode: space; line-break: after-white-space;"><div style="caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); color: rgb(0, 0, 0); letter-spacing: normal; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px; text-decoration: none; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; font-family: Verdana; font-size: 14px; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: normal; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px;"><br class="Apple-interchange-newline"><br></div><div style="caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); color: rgb(0, 0, 0); letter-spacing: normal; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px; text-decoration: none; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px;">*****<br><br>\u201cSeventy percent of the outcomes of the energy transition depend on people changing their energy consumption, behaviors and lifestyles. But ...<br><br>70% of Consumers Unwilling to Spend More on Energy ...<br><br>ESG Today Feb 13, 2024<br>https://www.esgtoday.com/70-of-consumers-unwilling-to-spend-more-on-energy-sustainability-ey-survey/<br><br>******************<br>Consumers Are Not Voting For The Energy Transition<br><br>Forbes Mar 28, 2025 <br></div><div style="caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); color: rgb(0, 0, 0); letter-spacing: normal; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px; text-decoration: none; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px;"><br>Consumers need to alter their behavior to meet Net Zero 2050 targets, but there is little evidence of that.</div><div style="text-align: start; text-indent: 0px;">https://www.forbes.com/sites/michaellynch/2025/03/28/consumers-are-not-voting-for-the-energy-transition/</div></div></div></div></div></div>
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