<html aria-label="message body"><head><meta http-equiv="content-type" content="text/html; charset=utf-8"></head><body style="overflow-wrap: break-word; -webkit-nbsp-mode: space; line-break: after-white-space;"><div><br></div><p style="font-size: small; font-variant-ligatures: normal; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); margin: 0px 0px 7.8px; line-height: normal; font-family: "Helvetica Neue"; font-size-adjust: none; font-kerning: auto; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-feature-settings: normal; color: rgb(38, 38, 38);"><span style="font-kerning: none;"><b><font size="4">Snowpack decline kindles more severe fire in the western United States</font></b></span></p><p style="font-size: 16px; font-variant-ligatures: normal; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); margin: 0px; line-height: normal; font-family: "Helvetica Neue"; font-size-adjust: none; font-kerning: auto; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-feature-settings: normal; color: rgb(38, 38, 38);"><span style="font-kerning: none;">Jared A Balik</span><span style="font-size: 12px; line-height: normal; font-size-adjust: none; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: none;">*</span><span style="font-kerning: none;">, Jonathan D Coop and Sean A Parks</span></p><p style="font-variant-ligatures: normal; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); margin: 0px 0px 14px; line-height: normal; font-family: "Helvetica Neue"; font-size-adjust: none; font-kerning: auto; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-feature-settings: normal; color: rgb(38, 38, 38);"><span style="font-kerning: none;">Published 23 March 2026 \u2022 © 2026 The Author(s). Published by IOP Publishing Ltd<br><a href="https://iopscience.iop.org/journal/1748-9326" target="_blank" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://iopscience.iop.org/journal/1748-9326&source=gmail&ust=1775259413469000&usg=AOvVaw0M4a-QQdw-IuTpgnGP7z9k" style="color: rgb(17, 85, 204);"><span style="line-height: normal; font-size-adjust: none; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: none; color: rgb(11, 89, 162);">Environmental Research Letters</span></a>, <a href="https://iopscience.iop.org/volume/1748-9326/21" target="_blank" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://iopscience.iop.org/volume/1748-9326/21&source=gmail&ust=1775259413469000&usg=AOvVaw1pT4_2Vc3-jpoZ2PKhdvCU" style="color: rgb(17, 85, 204);"><span style="line-height: normal; font-size-adjust: none; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: none; color: rgb(11, 89, 162);">Volume 21</span></a>, <a href="https://iopscience.iop.org/issue/1748-9326/21/6" target="_blank" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://iopscience.iop.org/issue/1748-9326/21/6&source=gmail&ust=1775259413469000&usg=AOvVaw1vLTe3HAk1s_XN44m89KGM" style="color: rgb(17, 85, 204);"><span style="line-height: normal; font-size-adjust: none; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: none; color: rgb(11, 89, 162);">Number 6</span></a></span></p><p style="font-variant-ligatures: normal; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); margin: 0px; line-height: normal; font-family: "Helvetica Neue"; font-size-adjust: none; font-kerning: auto; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-feature-settings: normal; color: rgb(38, 38, 38);"><span style="line-height: normal; font-family: system-ui; font-size-adjust: none; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: none;">Citation</span><span style="font-kerning: none;"> Jared A Balik <i>et al</i> 2026 <i>Environ. Res. Lett.</i> </span><span style="line-height: normal; font-family: system-ui; font-size-adjust: none; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: none;">21</span><span style="font-kerning: none;"> 064010</span></p><p style="font-variant-ligatures: normal; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); margin: 0px; line-height: normal; font-family: "Helvetica Neue"; font-size-adjust: none; font-kerning: auto; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-feature-settings: normal; color: rgb(38, 38, 38);"><span style="line-height: normal; font-family: system-ui; font-size-adjust: none; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: none;">DOI</span><span style="font-kerning: none;"> 10.1088/1748-9326/ae4e4a</span></p><p style="font-variant-ligatures: normal; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); font-size: 19.2px; margin: 0px; line-height: normal; font-family: "Helvetica Neue"; font-size-adjust: none; font-kerning: auto; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-feature-settings: normal; color: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><span style="font-kerning: none;"><a href="https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/ae4e4a/pdf" target="_blank" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/ae4e4a/pdf&source=gmail&ust=1775259413469000&usg=AOvVaw0YBMNClwAVjlq10mELYvpV" style="color: rgb(17, 85, 204);">Article PDF</a></span></p><p style="font-variant-ligatures: normal; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); font-size: 16.8px; margin: 0px 0px 8.3px; line-height: normal; font-family: "Helvetica Neue"; font-size-adjust: none; font-kerning: auto; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-feature-settings: normal; color: rgb(38, 38, 38);"><b><span style="font-size: 16.8px; line-height: normal; font-family: system-ui; font-size-adjust: none; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: none;">2239</span><span style="font-kerning: none;"> Total downloads</span></b></p><p style="font-variant-ligatures: normal; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); margin: 0px 0px 7.2px; line-height: normal; font-family: "Helvetica Neue"; font-size-adjust: none; font-kerning: auto; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-feature-settings: normal; color: rgb(38, 38, 38);"><span style="font-kerning: none;"><font size="4"><b>Abstract</b></font></span></p><p style="font-variant-ligatures: normal; margin: 0px 0px 19.1px; line-height: normal; font-family: "Helvetica Neue"; font-size-adjust: none; font-kerning: auto; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-feature-settings: normal;"><span style="font-kerning: none;"><span style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">Climate change is reducing winter snowpack and advancing spring snowmelt across the western United States, interacting with El Niño\u2013Southern Oscillation (ENSO) teleconnections that drive spatially predictable interannual fluctuations that contribute to high- or low-snow winters. Early snowmelt extends the fire season, enhancing opportunities for ignition and increasing fuel dryness, both of which contribute to greater burned areas. However, relationships between snowpack on burn severity, a measure of forest loss and expected biogeochemical and hydrological impacts of fire, have not been examined. Here, using remotely sensed snow and fire data spanning 1985\u20132021, we examined how snowpack quantity and timing of spring snowmelt influence annual area burned and burn severity at the watershed scale. Early snowmelt was associated with earlier occurrences of fire \u2a7e400 ha and greater annual area burned, whereas low snowpack water content was associated with more severe burn outcomes including greater mean composite burn index (CBI) and larger proportions of high severity fire (CBI \u2a7e 2.25).</span><span style="background-color: rgb(255, 251, 0);"> Thus, low-snow winters with early snowmelt may prime forested watersheds to dry, burn, and experience high severity fire. These outcomes are consistent with enhanced fuel dry-down: early snowmelt extends the dry-down window while low snowpack quantity portends greater fuel aridity during the dry period. Our findings also highlight how the ENSO interacts with directional warming: El Niño phases amplify trends of snowpack loss and increasing area burned severely in northwestern watersheds but dampen these trends in southwestern watersheds, while La Niña phases exert the opposite effect. Projected warming, potentially accompanied by greater ENSO variability and extremes, <b>points toward a future of </b>reduced snowpack, earlier snowmelt, and increased area burned at high severity in forests where snowpack historically buffered fire risk, with attendant losses in forest carbon storage and disrupted hydrological function of forested watersheds.</span></span></p><div>
<meta charset="UTF-8"><div style="caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family: Verdana; font-size: 14px; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: auto; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: auto; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; text-decoration: none;"><br class="Apple-interchange-newline"><br></div><div style="caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family: Verdana; font-size: 14px; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: auto; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: auto; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; text-decoration: none;">\u2014\u2014\u2014</div><div style="caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family: Verdana; font-size: 14px; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: auto; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: auto; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; text-decoration: none;">2002 - \u201cAlthough we are only at an early stage in the projected trends of global warming, ecological responses to recent climate change are already clearly visible.\u201d<br><br>Walther et al, \u201cEcological responses to recent climate change.\u201d Nature, March 28, 2002<br></div><div style="caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family: Verdana; font-size: 14px; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: auto; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: auto; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; text-decoration: none;">\u2014\u2014\u2014\u2014\u2014\u2014\u2014\u2014\u2014\u2014\u2014</div><div style="caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family: Verdana; font-size: 14px; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: auto; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: auto; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; text-decoration: none;"><br>2006 - \u201cClimate change is not a new topic in biology...... Observations of range shifts in parallel with climate change ... date back to the mid-1700s.\u201d<br><br>\u201cThis review \u2026 deals exclusively with observed responses of wild biological species and systems \u2026. \u201c<br><br>"A surprising result is the high proportion of species responding to recent, relatively mild climate change (global average warming of 0.6 C)." <br><br>Parmesan, Camille. Ecological and Evolutionary Responses to Recent Climate Change. The Annual Review of Ecology, Evolution, and Systematics 37: pp. 637-69. 2006.<br></div>
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