<html aria-label="message body"><head><meta http-equiv="content-type" content="text/html; charset=utf-8"></head><body style="overflow-wrap: break-word; -webkit-nbsp-mode: space; line-break: after-white-space;"><a href="https://www.eurekalert.org/news-releases/1128376" class="has-thumb" style="box-sizing: border-box; background: rgb(255, 255, 255); transition: 0.1s linear; text-decoration: none; display: block; position: relative; padding: 0px; min-height: 125px; font-variant-ligatures: normal;"><header style="box-sizing: border-box; padding: 0px; margin-right: 110px;"><div class="press-release-card__meta" style="box-sizing: border-box; display: flex; align-items: center;"><div class="reltime" style="box-sizing: border-box; margin-right: 10px; margin-bottom: 2px;"><font color="#000000">20-May-2026</font></div><span class="glyphicon glyphicon-picture" style="box-sizing: border-box; position: relative; top: 1px; display: inline-block; line-height: 1; -webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased;"></span><font color="#000000"> </font></div><h2 class="post_title" style="box-sizing: border-box; font-weight: 500; line-height: 20px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><font color="#000000">Carbon markets underestimate the risks U.S. forests face from climate change</font></span></h2><font color="#000000"><span class="author" style="box-sizing: border-box; text-transform: uppercase; margin: 2px 0px 0px; transition: 0.2s ease-in-out;">UNIVERSITY OF UTAH</span><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span class="category" style="box-sizing: border-box; text-transform: uppercase; margin: 2px 0px 0px; transition: 0.2s ease-in-out;">PEER-REVIEWED PUBLICATION</span></font></header><div class="entry hidden-xs" style="box-sizing: border-box; margin-right: 110px;"><div class="intro" style="box-sizing: border-box; border-left: 2px solid rgb(185, 186, 188); padding-left: 10px; line-height: 19px;"><p style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px 0px 10px; line-height: 19px;"><font color="#000000">New research led by the University of Utah documents how carbon markets, a pillar of climate policy, fail to accurately account for the risks U.S. forests face from climate change. The team produced maps that show where the risk of loss from fire, insects and drought are most elevated, and therefore best avoided for forest preservation projects.</font></p></div></div><dl class="dl-horizontal meta hidden-xs" style="box-sizing: border-box; margin-top: 17px; margin-bottom: 20px; margin-right: 110px;"><dt class="yellow" style="box-sizing: border-box; line-height: 1.42857; float: left; width: auto; clear: left; overflow: hidden; text-overflow: ellipsis; white-space: nowrap; text-transform: uppercase; border-left: 2px solid rgb(255, 177, 52); border-color: rgb(255, 177, 52); padding-left: 10px; margin-bottom: 12px; min-width: 100px;"><font color="#000000">JOURNAL</font></dt><dd style="box-sizing: border-box; line-height: 1.42857; margin-left: 100px;"><em style="box-sizing: border-box;"><font color="#000000">Nature</font></em></dd></dl></a><div>
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color: rgb(111, 111, 111); display: flex; flex-wrap: wrap; font-size: 1rem; line-height: 1.3; list-style: none; padding: 0px; margin: 0px;"><li class="c-article-identifiers__item" data-test="article-category" style="box-sizing: inherit; list-style: none; margin-right: 8px; padding-right: 8px; border-right: 2px solid rgb(197, 224, 244); color: rgb(34, 34, 34);">Article</li><li class="c-article-identifiers__item" style="box-sizing: inherit; list-style: none; margin-right: 0px; padding-right: 0px; border-right: medium; color: rgb(34, 34, 34);">Published: <time datetime="2026-05-20" style="box-sizing: inherit;">20 May 2026</time></li></ul><h1 class="c-article-title" data-test="article-title" data-article-title="" style="box-sizing: inherit; font-size: 1.875rem; margin: 0px 0px 16px; -webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; font-family: Harding, Palatino, serif; letter-spacing: min(max(-0.011716rem, 4vw), -0.039063rem); line-height: 1.2;">Forest carbon protocols underestimate climate-driven carbon loss risks</h1><ul class="c-article-author-list c-article-author-list--short js-no-scroll" data-test="authors-list" data-component-authors-activator="authors-list" style="box-sizing: inherit; display: inline; font-size: 1rem; list-style: none; margin: 0px 8px 0px 0px; padding: 0px; width: 100%;"><li class="c-article-author-list__item" style="box-sizing: inherit; display: inline; padding-right: 0px;"><a data-test="author-name" data-track="click" data-track-action="open author" data-track-label="link" data-track-index="1_13" data-track-context="researcher popup with no profile" href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-026-10571-y#auth-Chao-Wu-Aff1-Aff2-Aff3" data-author-popup="auth-Chao-Wu-Aff1-Aff2-Aff3" data-author-search="Wu, Chao" data-corresp-id="c1" style="box-sizing: inherit; vertical-align: baseline; color: rgb(2, 94, 141); overflow-wrap: break-word; text-decoration: underline; text-decoration-skip-ink: auto; text-underline-offset: 0.08em; word-break: break-word;">Chao Wu<svg width="16" height="16" focusable="false" role="img" aria-hidden="true" class="u-icon"><use xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xlink:href="#icon-eds-i-mail-medium"></use></svg></a>, </li><li class="c-article-author-list__item" style="box-sizing: inherit; display: inline; padding-right: 0px;"><a data-test="author-name" data-track="click" data-track-action="open author" data-track-label="link" data-track-index="2_13" data-track-context="researcher popup with no profile" href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-026-10571-y#auth-Grayson-Badgley-Aff4" data-author-popup="auth-Grayson-Badgley-Aff4" data-author-search="Badgley, Grayson" style="box-sizing: inherit; vertical-align: baseline; color: rgb(2, 94, 141); overflow-wrap: break-word; text-decoration: underline; text-decoration-skip-ink: auto; text-underline-offset: 0.08em; word-break: break-word;">Grayson Badgley</a>, </li><li class="c-article-author-list__item c-article-author-list__item--hide-small-screen" style="box-sizing: inherit; display: inline; padding-right: 0px;"><a data-test="author-name" data-track="click" data-track-action="open author" data-track-label="link" data-track-index="3_13" data-track-context="researcher popup with no profile" href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-026-10571-y#auth-Michael_L_-Goulden-Aff5-Aff6" data-author-popup="auth-Michael_L_-Goulden-Aff5-Aff6" data-author-search="Goulden, Michael L." style="box-sizing: inherit; vertical-align: baseline; color: rgb(2, 94, 141); overflow-wrap: break-word; text-decoration: underline; text-decoration-skip-ink: auto; text-underline-offset: 0.08em; word-break: break-word;">Michael L. Goulden</a>, </li><li class="c-article-author-list__item c-article-author-list__item--hide-small-screen" style="box-sizing: inherit; display: inline; padding-right: 0px;"><a data-test="author-name" data-track="click" data-track-action="open author" data-track-label="link" data-track-index="4_13" data-track-context="researcher popup with no profile" href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-026-10571-y#auth-James_T_-Randerson-Aff5" data-author-popup="auth-James_T_-Randerson-Aff5" data-author-search="Randerson, James T." style="box-sizing: inherit; vertical-align: baseline; color: rgb(2, 94, 141); overflow-wrap: break-word; text-decoration: underline; text-decoration-skip-ink: auto; text-underline-offset: 0.08em; word-break: break-word;">James T. Randerson</a>, </li><li class="c-article-author-list__item c-article-author-list__item--hide-small-screen" style="box-sizing: inherit; display: inline; padding-right: 0px;"><a data-test="author-name" data-track="click" data-track-action="open author" data-track-label="link" data-track-index="5_13" data-track-context="researcher popup with no profile" href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-026-10571-y#auth-Anna_T_-Trugman-Aff7" data-author-popup="auth-Anna_T_-Trugman-Aff7" data-author-search="Trugman, Anna T." style="box-sizing: inherit; vertical-align: baseline; color: rgb(2, 94, 141); overflow-wrap: break-word; text-decoration: underline; text-decoration-skip-ink: auto; text-underline-offset: 0.08em; word-break: break-word;">Anna T. Trugman</a>, </li><li class="c-article-author-list__item c-article-author-list__item--hide-small-screen" style="box-sizing: inherit; display: inline; padding-right: 0px;"><a data-test="author-name" data-track="click" data-track-action="open author" data-track-label="link" data-track-index="6_13" data-track-context="researcher popup with no profile" href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-026-10571-y#auth-Jonathan_A_-Wang-Aff3" data-author-popup="auth-Jonathan_A_-Wang-Aff3" data-author-search="Wang, Jonathan A." style="box-sizing: inherit; vertical-align: baseline; color: rgb(2, 94, 141); overflow-wrap: break-word; text-decoration: underline; text-decoration-skip-ink: auto; text-underline-offset: 0.08em; word-break: break-word;">Jonathan A. Wang</a>, </li><li class="c-article-author-list__item c-article-author-list__item--hide-small-screen" style="box-sizing: inherit; display: inline; padding-right: 0px;"><a data-test="author-name" data-track="click" data-track-action="open author" data-track-label="link" data-track-index="7_13" data-track-context="researcher popup with no profile" href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-026-10571-y#auth-Linqing-Yang-Aff2-Aff3" data-author-popup="auth-Linqing-Yang-Aff2-Aff3" data-author-search="Yang, Linqing" style="box-sizing: inherit; vertical-align: baseline; color: rgb(2, 94, 141); overflow-wrap: break-word; text-decoration: underline; text-decoration-skip-ink: auto; text-underline-offset: 0.08em; word-break: break-word;">Linqing Yang</a>, </li><li class="c-article-author-list__item c-article-author-list__item--hide-small-screen" style="box-sizing: inherit; display: inline; padding-right: 0px;"><a data-test="author-name" data-track="click" data-track-action="open author" data-track-label="link" data-track-index="8_13" data-track-context="researcher popup with no profile" href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-026-10571-y#auth-Nezha-Acil-Aff8" data-author-popup="auth-Nezha-Acil-Aff8" data-author-search="Acil, Nezha" style="box-sizing: inherit; vertical-align: baseline; color: rgb(2, 94, 141); overflow-wrap: break-word; text-decoration: underline; text-decoration-skip-ink: auto; text-underline-offset: 0.08em; word-break: break-word;">Nezha Acil</a>, </li><li class="c-article-author-list__item c-article-author-list__item--hide-small-screen" style="box-sizing: inherit; display: inline; padding-right: 0px;"><a data-test="author-name" data-track="click" data-track-action="open author" data-track-label="link" data-track-index="9_13" data-track-context="researcher popup with no profile" href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-026-10571-y#auth-Susan_C_-Cook_Patton-Aff9" data-author-popup="auth-Susan_C_-Cook_Patton-Aff9" data-author-search="Cook-Patton, Susan C." style="box-sizing: inherit; vertical-align: baseline; color: rgb(2, 94, 141); overflow-wrap: break-word; text-decoration: underline; text-decoration-skip-ink: auto; text-underline-offset: 0.08em; word-break: break-word;">Susan C. Cook-Patton</a>, </li><li class="c-article-author-list__item c-article-author-list__item--hide-small-screen" style="box-sizing: inherit; display: inline; padding-right: 0px;"><a data-test="author-name" data-track="click" data-track-action="open author" data-track-label="link" data-track-index="10_13" data-track-context="researcher popup with no profile" href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-026-10571-y#auth-Danny-Cullenward-Aff10" data-author-popup="auth-Danny-Cullenward-Aff10" data-author-search="Cullenward, Danny" style="box-sizing: inherit; vertical-align: baseline; color: rgb(2, 94, 141); overflow-wrap: break-word; text-decoration: underline; text-decoration-skip-ink: auto; text-underline-offset: 0.08em; word-break: break-word;">Danny Cullenward</a>, </li><li class="c-article-author-list__item c-article-author-list__item--hide-small-screen" style="box-sizing: inherit; display: inline; padding-right: 0px;"><a data-test="author-name" data-track="click" data-track-action="open author" data-track-label="link" data-track-index="11_13" data-track-context="researcher popup with no profile" href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-026-10571-y#auth-Steven_J_-Davis-Aff11" data-author-popup="auth-Steven_J_-Davis-Aff11" data-author-search="Davis, Steven J." style="box-sizing: inherit; vertical-align: baseline; color: rgb(2, 94, 141); overflow-wrap: break-word; text-decoration: underline; text-decoration-skip-ink: auto; text-underline-offset: 0.08em; word-break: break-word;">Steven J. Davis</a>, </li><li class="c-article-author-list__item c-article-author-list__item--hide-small-screen" style="box-sizing: inherit; display: inline; padding-right: 0px;"><a data-test="author-name" data-track="click" data-track-action="open author" data-track-label="link" data-track-index="12_13" data-track-context="researcher popup with no profile" href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-026-10571-y#auth-Christopher_A_-Williams-Aff12" data-author-popup="auth-Christopher_A_-Williams-Aff12" data-author-search="Williams, Christopher A." style="box-sizing: inherit; vertical-align: baseline; color: rgb(2, 94, 141); overflow-wrap: break-word; text-decoration: underline; text-decoration-skip-ink: auto; text-underline-offset: 0.08em; word-break: break-word;">Christopher A. Williams</a> & </li><li class="c-article-author-list__item" style="box-sizing: inherit; display: inline; padding-right: 0px;"><a data-test="author-name" data-track="click" data-track-action="open author" data-track-label="link" data-track-index="13_13" data-track-context="researcher popup with no profile" href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-026-10571-y#auth-William_R__L_-Anderegg-Aff2-Aff3" data-author-popup="auth-William_R__L_-Anderegg-Aff2-Aff3" data-author-search="Anderegg, William R. L." data-corresp-id="c2" style="box-sizing: inherit; vertical-align: baseline; color: rgb(2, 94, 141); overflow-wrap: break-word; text-decoration: underline; text-decoration-skip-ink: auto; text-underline-offset: 0.08em; word-break: break-word;">William R. L. Anderegg<svg width="16" height="16" focusable="false" role="img" aria-hidden="true" class="u-icon"><use xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xlink:href="#icon-eds-i-mail-medium"></use></svg></a> </li></ul><p class="c-article-info-details" data-container-section="info" style="box-sizing: inherit; overflow-wrap: break-word; word-break: break-word; margin-top: 16px; margin-bottom: initial; font-size: 1rem;"><a data-test="journal-link" href="https://www.nature.com/" data-track="click" data-track-action="journal homepage" data-track-category="article body" data-track-label="link" style="box-sizing: inherit; vertical-align: baseline; color: rgb(2, 94, 141); overflow-wrap: break-word; text-decoration: underline; text-decoration-skip-ink: auto; text-underline-offset: 0.08em; word-break: break-word;"><i data-test="journal-title" style="box-sizing: inherit;">Nature</i></a> (<span data-test="article-publication-year" style="box-sizing: inherit;">2026</span>) <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-026-10571-y#citeas" class="c-article-info-details__cite-as u-hide-print" data-track="click" data-track-action="cite this article" data-track-label="link" style="box-sizing: inherit; vertical-align: baseline; color: rgb(2, 94, 141); overflow-wrap: break-word; text-decoration: underline; text-decoration-skip-ink: auto; text-underline-offset: 0.08em; word-break: break-word; border-left: 1px solid rgb(111, 111, 111); margin-left: 8px; padding-left: 8px;">Cite this article</a></p></header></div><div class="c-article-body" style="box-sizing: inherit;"><section aria-labelledby="Abs1" data-title="Abstract" lang="en" style="box-sizing: inherit;"><div class="c-article-section" id="Abs1-section" style="box-sizing: inherit; clear: both;"><h2 class="c-article-section__title js-section-title js-c-reading-companion-sections-item" id="Abs1" style="box-sizing: inherit; -webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; letter-spacing: -0.011716rem; font-size: 1.5rem; line-height: 1.24; border-bottom: 2px solid rgb(213, 213, 213); margin: 0px; padding-bottom: 8px;">Abstract</h2><div class="c-article-section__content" id="Abs1-content" style="box-sizing: inherit; margin-bottom: 40px; padding-top: 8px;"><p style="box-sizing: inherit; overflow-wrap: break-word; word-break: break-word; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 24px;">Although the reduction of fossil fuel emissions remains of the utmost importance to mitigate climate change, maintaining and enhancing carbon sinks in forests have been widely promoted as nature-based climate solutions<span style="box-sizing: inherit; vertical-align: baseline; font-size: 13.5px; line-height: 0; position: relative; top: -0.5em;"><a data-track="click" data-track-action="reference anchor" data-track-label="link" data-test="citation-ref" title="Anderegg, W. 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USA 114, 11645\u201311650 (2017)." href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-026-10571-y#ref-CR2" id="ref-link-section-d169318207e682_1" style="box-sizing: inherit; vertical-align: baseline; color: rgb(2, 94, 141); overflow-wrap: break-word; text-decoration: underline; text-decoration-skip-ink: auto; text-underline-offset: 0.08em; word-break: break-word;">2</a>,<a data-track="click" data-track-action="reference anchor" data-track-label="link" data-test="citation-ref" title="Fargione, J. E. et al. Natural climate solutions for the United States. Sci. 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However, disturbances that could result in losses of forest carbon stocks are poorly accounted for when estimating the potential role of forests in climate mitigation<span style="box-sizing: inherit; vertical-align: baseline; font-size: 13.5px; line-height: 0; position: relative; top: -0.5em;"><a data-track="click" data-track-action="reference anchor" data-track-label="link" data-test="citation-ref" title="Mo, L. et al. Integrated global assessment of the natural forest carbon potential. 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Adv. 9, eadg9175 (2023)." href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-026-10571-y#ref-CR6" id="ref-link-section-d169318207e689_1" style="box-sizing: inherit; vertical-align: baseline; color: rgb(2, 94, 141); overflow-wrap: break-word; text-decoration: underline; text-decoration-skip-ink: auto; text-underline-offset: 0.08em; word-break: break-word;">6</a>,<a data-track="click" data-track-action="reference anchor" data-track-label="link" data-test="citation-ref" aria-label="Reference 7" title="Walker, W. S. et al. The global potential for increased storage of carbon on land. Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA 119, e2111312119 (2022)." href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-026-10571-y#ref-CR7" id="ref-link-section-d169318207e692" style="box-sizing: inherit; vertical-align: baseline; color: rgb(2, 94, 141); overflow-wrap: break-word; text-decoration: underline; text-decoration-skip-ink: auto; text-underline-offset: 0.08em; word-break: break-word;">7</a></span>. This makes it difficult to appropriately size \u2018buffer pools\u2019: a mechanism designed to compensate for unintended carbon losses in carbon crediting projects<span style="box-sizing: inherit; vertical-align: baseline; font-size: 13.5px; line-height: 0; position: relative; top: -0.5em;"><a data-track="click" data-track-action="reference anchor" data-track-label="link" data-test="citation-ref" aria-label="Reference 8" title="Anderegg, W. R. L. et al. Towards more effective nature-based climate solutions in global forests. Nature 643, 1214\u20131222 (2025)." href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-026-10571-y#ref-CR8" id="ref-link-section-d169318207e696" style="box-sizing: inherit; vertical-align: baseline; color: rgb(2, 94, 141); overflow-wrap: break-word; text-decoration: underline; text-decoration-skip-ink: auto; text-underline-offset: 0.08em; word-break: break-word;">8</a>,<a data-track="click" data-track-action="reference anchor" data-track-label="link" data-test="citation-ref" aria-label="Reference 9" title="Badgley, G. Increasingly active wildfire seasons threaten the sustainability of forest-backed carbon offset programs. Glob. Chang. Biol. 30, e17599 (2024)." href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-026-10571-y#ref-CR9" id="ref-link-section-d169318207e699" style="box-sizing: inherit; vertical-align: baseline; color: rgb(2, 94, 141); overflow-wrap: break-word; text-decoration: underline; text-decoration-skip-ink: auto; text-underline-offset: 0.08em; word-break: break-word;">9</a></span>. Here we use forest inventory, satellite data, disturbance modelling and machine learning to map reversal (carbon loss) risk in the contiguous United States (CONUS) from natural disturbance. Across CONUS forests, we show that climate change increases the 100-year risk of carbon losses from natural disturbance, particularly in California and the Intermountain West. The current buffer pool of the largest CONUS forest climate mitigation programme is likely too small by an average factor of 6.3, and this could range from 2.2- to 8.0-fold too small when considering uncertainties around future climate scenarios, disturbance severity and other carbon pools. We provide spatially explicit maps of the long-term risks to forest carbon losses from natural disturbances, which highlight that current methodologies used for constructing carbon offset buffer pools require revisions to succeed under climate change.</p></div></div></section></div></article></main></div></div><div style="text-align: start; text-indent: 0px;"><br><br>\u2014\u2014\u2014\u2014\u2014\u2014\u2014</div><div style="text-align: start; text-indent: 0px;"><br>How a 'Right-Sized' 1950s Home Became a 'Tight Fit' in 2012<br>https://patch.com \u203a pennsylvania \u203a hellertown \u203a bp--ho...<br><br>In the 1950s, the size of the typical new home increased to 950 square feet, and "by the 60's 1,100 square feet was typical, and by the 70's, \u2026<br><br>\u2014\u2014\u2014\u2014\u2014\u2014\u2014\u2014\u2014\u2014\u2014\u2014\u2014\u2014\u2014\u2014\u2014\u2014\u2014\u2014\u2014\u2014\u2014<br><br>Have American Homes Changed Much Over the Years? T<br>https://compasscaliforniablog.com \u203a have-american-home...<br><br>1960s: The average new-home size grew to 1,200 square feet, giving its 3.33 residents a spacious 360 square feet of room apiece. The bedroom-bathroom ratio flipped from the previous decade, with 2.5 bedrooms and 1.5 bathrooms.<br><br>\u2014\u2014\u2014\u2014\u2014\u2014\u2014\u2014\u2014\u2014\u2014\u2014\u2014\u2014\u2014\u2014\u2014\u2014\u2014\u2014\u2014\u2014\u2014<br><br>This Was Considered a "Huge House" 50 Years Ago - Best Life<br>https://bestlifeonline.com \u203a huge-houses-50-years-ago<br><br>In 2018, the average new construction single-family home spanned more than 2,600 square feet and sold for nearly $378,000. However, in the 1960s ...</div></div></div>
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