[MCN] Western U.S. fire risk: Who saw it coming, and when?

[Lance Olsen]

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"A current warming trend in AMO suggests that we may expect an 
increase in widespread, synchronous fires across the western U.S. in 
coming decades."
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Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
January 9, 2007 

Contingent Pacific-Atlantic Ocean influence on multicentury wildfire 
synchrony over western North America 
Thomas Kitzberger, Peter M. Brown, Emily K. Heyerdahl, Thomas W. 
Swetnam, and Thomas T. Veblen

Excerpt:
Widespread synchronous wildfires driven by climatic variation,  such 
as those that swept western North America during 1996, 2000,  and 
2002, can result in major environmental and societal impacts. 
Understanding relationships between continental-scale patterns  of 
drought and modes of sea surface temperatures (SSTs) such as  El Nino 
Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation  (PDO), and 
Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) may explain how interannual 
to multidecadal variability in SSTs drives fire at  continental 
scales. We used local wildfire chronologies reconstructed from fire 
scars on tree rings across western North America  and independent 
reconstructions of SST developed from tree-ring  widths at other 
sites to examine the relationships of multicentury  patterns of 
climate and fire synchrony. From 33,039 annually  resolved fire-scar 
dates at 238 sites (the largest paleofire record yet  assembled), we 
examined forest fires at regional and subcontinental scales. Since 
1550 CE, drought and forest fires covaried  across the West, but in a 
manner contingent on SST modes. During  certain phases of ENSO and 
PDO, fire was synchronous within  broad subregions and sometimes 
asynchronous among those regions. In contrast, fires were most 
commonly synchronous across  the West during warm phases of the AMO. 
ENSO and PDO were the  main drivers of high-frequency variation in 
fire (interannual to  decadal), whereas the AMO conditionally changed 
the strength  and spatial influence of ENSO and PDO on wildfire 
occurrence at  multidecadal scales. A current warming trend in AMO 
suggests  that we may expect an increase in widespread, synchronous 
fires  across the western U.S. in coming decades.


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"How does one justify trying to cope with what may be intractable 
problems? The very nature of the question belies its origins in the 
assumption of science that one has to believe that all problems are 
solvable."

Seymour Sarason. The Nature of Problem Solving in Social Action. 
American Psychologist. April, 1978
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" 'Triage' is a dirty word in some conservation circles, but like 
many dirty words, it describes something common. Whether they admit 
it or not, conservationists have long had to make decisions about 
what to save.

"As more and more admit it, open discussion about how the decisions 
are best made -- by concentrating on particular species, or 
particular places, or absolute costs, or any other criterion -- 
becomes possible. Whichever criteria come into play, one thing 
remains constant. The decisions have to be made quickly."

Emma Marris, "What To Let Go."
NATURE November 8, 2007
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